Progresista vs Penarol Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 16 Feb 2013

Tip-off: 01:00

Final 104-111 (OT)

19-31 22-32 26-14 31-21 6-13

Position#16

Record10-26

FormLLLLL

Points / game73.5

Allowed / game80.2

Progresista

Penarol 🏆

Position#2

Record25-11

FormWLWWW

Points / game81.2

Allowed / game76.1

Liga ARound 39

Other2012-13

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Progresista winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Penarol winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Progresista Argentina

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Regatas

67-79

-12

A20/12

Liga A

Sionista

68-101

101

-33

A22/12

Liga A

Atenas

#11

71-97

-26

H17/01

Liga A

Olimpico

78-68

+10

H19/01

Liga A

de Julio de Morteros

#14

98-105

105

-7

A28/01

Liga A

Argentino

56-77

-21

A30/01

Liga A

Obras Sanitarias

#13

82-102

102

-20

H02/02

Liga A

Boca Juniors

76-84

-8

H04/02

Liga A

Quimsa

76-95

-19

A09/02

Liga A

Libertad

69-81

-12

A11/02

Liga A

17-26

19-19

11-16

20-18

16-27

21-17

13-27

18-30

24-18

9-23

17-30

21-26

10-14

24-11

13-15

31-28

26-37

20-27

18-21

34-20

11-14

14-15

15-23

16-25

19-27

22-26

18-27

23-22

25-28

10-16

24-23

17-17

22-23

20-23

19-25

15-24

14-24

23-15

20-23

12-19

163.0Avg total

74.1Scored

88.9Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (36)	73.5	80.2	153.7	-6.7	28%
Season at home (18)	76.8	78.6	155.4	-1.8	44%
Season away (18)	70.1	81.8	151.9	-11.7	11%
Last 10 (10)	74.1	88.9	163.0	-14.8	10%
Last 5 (5)	71.8	87.8	159.6	-16.0	0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)	73.1	82.7	155.8	-9.6	25%
vs Similar (6)	81.0	76.3	157.3	+4.7	67%
vs Weaker	no games

This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Penarol

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Lanus

84-82 OT

A09/01

Liga A

Obras Sanitarias

#13

86-87

-1

H17/01

Liga A

Boca Juniors

97-78

+19

H19/01

Liga A

Quimsa

60-94

-34

A26/01

Liga A

Libertad

76-65

+11

A28/01

Liga A

Regatas

90-77

+13

H02/02

Liga A

Sionista

62-81

-19

H04/02

Liga A

Libertad

87-71

+16

H06/02

Liga A

Lanus

78-62

+16

H09/02

Liga A

Gimnasia

#10

72-58

+14

H11/02

Liga A

23-10

20-26

22-15

9-23

27-18

12-18

19-27

28-24

29-20

17-19

27-17

24-22

13-18

9-32

21-25

17-19

21-19

14-9

19-20

22-17

31-18

18-14

26-16

15-29

17-24

11-26

16-22

18-9

29-14

22-7

11-26

25-24

23-12

14-13

23-19

18-18

18-15

13-13

20-8

21-22

154.7Avg total

79.2Scored

75.5Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (36)	81.2	76.1	157.3	+5.1	69%
Season at home (20)	82.7	74.2	156.9	+8.5	70%
Season away (16)	79.2	78.6	157.8	+0.7	69%
Last 10 (10)	79.2	75.5	154.7	+3.7	70%
Last 5 (5)	77.8	69.8	147.6	+8.0	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	75.2	79.0	154.2	-3.8	25%
vs Similar (18)	78.8	73.7	152.5	+5.1	67%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)	86.4	82.9	169.3	+3.6	43%

This opponent (Progresista) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

ProgresistaPenarol

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	17.1	21.0	38.1	-3.9	20%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	17.8	18.9	36.6	-1.1	38%	-
Last 30 away (14)	16.4	23.4	39.8	-7.1	0%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.4	23.8	42.2	-5.4	10%	-
Last 5 (5)	18.2	23.2	41.4	-5.0	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)	16.8	20.8	37.6	-4.0	21%	-
vs Similar (6)	18.2	21.8	40.0	-3.7	17%	-
vs Weaker	no games

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	22.5	17.8	40.3	+4.7	70%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	24.2	16.9	41.1	+7.2	82%	-
Last 30 away (13)	20.3	18.9	39.2	+1.4	54%	-
Last 10 (10)	23.1	16.8	39.9	+6.3	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.6	16.6	40.2	+7.0	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	23.5	20.0	43.5	+3.5	50%	-
vs Similar (18)	22.0	16.6	38.6	+5.4	78%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)	23.7	20.4	44.1	+3.3	57%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	17.1	17.8	34.9	-0.7	40%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	16.6	17.1	33.7	-0.4	38%	-
Last 30 away (14)	17.6	18.6	36.3	-1.0	43%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.2	19.2	37.4	-1.0	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	17.8	19.0	36.8	-1.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)	17.2	17.8	35.0	-0.5	42%	-
vs Similar (6)	16.5	17.8	34.3	-1.3	33%	-
vs Weaker	no games

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.2	16.3	34.5	+1.9	57%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	17.6	15.4	32.9	+2.2	53%	-
Last 30 away (13)	18.9	17.5	36.5	+1.4	62%	-
Last 10 (10)	15.0	17.7	32.7	-2.7	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	15.6	14.6	30.2	+1.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	17.5	16.0	33.5	+1.5	50%	-
vs Similar (18)	17.9	15.4	33.3	+2.5	61%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)	18.7	20.0	38.7	-1.3	43%	-

ProgresistaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Regatas

36-45

-9

A20/12

Liga A

Sionista

37-44

-7

A22/12

Liga A

Atenas

#11

33-41

-8

H17/01

Liga A

Olimpico

34-25

H19/01

Liga A

de Julio de Morteros

#14

46-64

-18

A28/01

Liga A

Argentino

25-29

-4

A30/01

Liga A

Obras Sanitarias

#13

41-53

-12

H02/02

Liga A

Boca Juniors

35-44

-9

H04/02

Liga A

Quimsa

42-46

-4

A09/02

Liga A

Libertad

37-39

-2

A11/02

Liga A

79.6Avg total

36.6Scored

43.0Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	34.2	38.8	73.0	-4.6	27%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	34.4	35.9	70.3	-1.6	44%	-
Last 30 away (14)	34.0	42.1	76.1	-8.1	7%	-
Last 10 (10)	36.6	43.0	79.6	-6.4	10%	-
Last 5 (5)	36.0	42.2	78.2	-6.2	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)	34.1	38.6	72.7	-4.5	25%	-
vs Similar (6)	34.7	39.7	74.3	-5.0	33%	-
vs Weaker	no games

This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Lanus

43-36

A09/01

Liga A

Obras Sanitarias

#13

39-36

H17/01

Liga A

Boca Juniors

46-39

H19/01

Liga A

Quimsa

22-50

-28

A26/01

Liga A

Libertad

35-28

A28/01

Liga A

Regatas

49-32

+17

H02/02

Liga A

Sionista

28-50

-22

H04/02

Liga A

Libertad

51-21

+30

H06/02

Liga A

Lanus

37-25

+12

H09/02

Liga A

Gimnasia

#10

31-28

H11/02

Liga A

72.6Avg total

38.1Scored

34.5Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	40.7	34.1	74.8	+6.6	77%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	41.8	32.3	74.1	+9.5	82%	-
Last 30 away (13)	39.2	36.5	75.7	+2.8	69%	-
Last 10 (10)	38.1	34.5	72.6	+3.6	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	39.2	31.2	70.4	+8.0	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	41.0	36.0	77.0	+5.0	50%	-
vs Similar (18)	39.9	31.9	71.8	+7.9	89%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)	42.4	40.4	82.9	+2.0	57%	-

This opponent (Progresista) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	19.7	20.5	40.2	-0.8	47%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	21.8	21.4	43.2	+0.3	56%	-
Last 30 away (14)	17.3	19.4	36.7	-2.1	36%	-
Last 10 (10)	16.8	23.0	39.8	-6.2	10%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.2	24.2	43.4	-5.0	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)	19.3	21.2	40.6	-1.9	42%	-
vs Similar (6)	21.0	17.5	38.5	+3.5	67%	-
vs Weaker	no games

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.0	21.3	41.2	-1.3	37%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	20.3	20.1	40.4	+0.2	47%	-
Last 30 away (13)	19.5	22.8	42.3	-3.2	23%	-
Last 10 (10)	20.4	19.5	39.9	+0.9	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.2	18.2	37.4	+1.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	17.8	22.8	40.5	-5.0	0%	-
vs Similar (18)	20.1	20.4	40.4	-0.3	44%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)	22.6	21.6	44.1	+1.0	43%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.3	21.9	42.2	-1.5	43%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	21.1	21.8	42.9	-0.6	44%	-
Last 30 away (14)	19.4	22.0	41.4	-2.6	43%	-
Last 10 (10)	20.7	22.9	43.6	-2.2	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	16.6	21.4	38.0	-4.8	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)	19.7	22.9	42.5	-3.2	33%	-
vs Similar (6)	23.0	17.8	40.8	+5.2	83%	-
vs Weaker	no games

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.7	20.9	39.6	-2.2	37%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	19.9	21.9	41.8	-1.9	35%	-
Last 30 away (13)	17.1	19.7	36.8	-2.6	38%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.7	20.7	40.4	-1.0	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.4	20.4	39.8	-1.0	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	16.5	20.2	36.8	-3.8	25%	-
vs Similar (18)	18.3	20.9	39.2	-2.7	39%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)	21.4	20.9	42.3	+0.6	43%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	40.0	42.4	82.4	-2.4	40%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	42.9	43.2	86.1	-0.3	50%	-
Last 30 away (14)	36.7	41.4	78.1	-4.7	29%	-
Last 10 (10)	37.5	45.9	83.4	-8.4	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	35.8	45.6	81.4	-9.8	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)	39.0	44.1	83.1	-5.1	33%	-
vs Similar (6)	44.0	35.3	79.3	+8.7	67%	-
vs Weaker	no games

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	38.7	42.2	80.9	-3.5	43%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	40.2	42.0	82.2	-1.8	53%	-
Last 30 away (13)	36.6	42.5	79.1	-5.8	31%	-
Last 10 (10)	40.1	40.2	80.3	-0.1	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	38.6	38.6	77.2	+0.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	34.2	43.0	77.2	-8.8	25%	-
vs Similar (18)	38.3	41.3	79.7	-3.0	44%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)	44.0	42.4	86.4	+1.6	57%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Progresista wins

Penarol wins

Date	Game	Score
01/12/12	Penarol v Progresista	93-71

Progresistalast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
11/02/13	A	Libertad	69-81
09/02/13	A	Quimsa	76-95
04/02/13	H	Boca Juniors	76-84
02/02/13	H	Obras Sanitarias	82-102
30/01/13	A	Argentino	56-77
28/01/13	A	de Julio de Morteros	98-105
19/01/13	H	Olimpico	78-68
17/01/13	H	Atenas	71-97
22/12/12	A	Sionista	68-101
20/12/12	A	Regatas	67-79

Penarollast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
11/02/13	H	Gimnasia	72-58
09/02/13	H	Lanus	78-62
06/02/13	H	Libertad	87-71
04/02/13	H	Sionista	62-81
02/02/13	H	Regatas	90-77
28/01/13	A	Libertad	76-65
26/01/13	A	Quimsa	60-94
19/01/13	H	Boca Juniors	97-78
17/01/13	H	Obras Sanitarias	86-87
09/01/13	A	Lanus	84-82 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Progresista

Liga A 2012-13

Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLLLL	28%
Home	WLWLL	44%
Away	LLLLL	11%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	36	18	18
Win %	28%	44%	11%
Points / game	73.5	76.8	70.1
Allowed / game	80.2	78.6	81.8
Point differential	-6.7	-1.8	-11.7
Avg total	153.7	155.4	151.9
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	8%	17%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	45% (11)	43% (7)	50% (4)
Overtime %	3%	6%	0%

Penarol

Liga A 2012-13

Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WLWWW	69%
Home	WLWWW	70%
Away	LWWLW	69%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	36	20	16
Win %	69%	70%	69%
Points / game	81.2	82.7	79.2
Allowed / game	76.1	74.2	78.6
Point differential	+5.1	+8.6	+0.7
Avg total	157.3	156.8	157.8
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	42%	55%	25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	38% (8)	25% (4)	50% (4)
Overtime %	3%	0%	6%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Regatas	37	26	11	70%	78.5	72.9	+5.7
2	Penarol	36	25	11	69%	81.2	76.1	+5.1
3	Lanus	35	23	12	66%	76.6	73.8	+2.8
4	Boca Juniors	37	23	14	62%	80.7	74.6	+6.1
5	Libertad	36	20	16	56%	78.6	77.6	+0.9
6	Olimpico	36	20	16	56%	75.6	76.2	-0.6
7	Quimsa	36	19	17	53%	79.4	77.2	+2.2
8	Argentino	36	19	17	53%	78.7	78.4	+0.3
9	Atenas	38	19	19	50%	77.0	79.6	-2.6
10	Gimnasia	37	18	19	49%	80.5	80.6	-0.1
11	Sionista	37	18	19	49%	79.5	80.5	-1.0
12	Weber Bahia	36	16	20	44%	81.1	81.2	-0.1
13	Obras Sanitarias	36	14	22	39%	79.9	80.6	-0.7
14	de Julio de Morteros	37	12	25	32%	79.7	85.2	-5.6
15	Progresista	36	10	26	28%	73.5	80.2	-6.7
16	La Union	36	9	27	25%	72.9	78.5	-5.6

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
Progresista	19	22	26	31	6	104
Penarol	31	32	14	21	13	111

← all games of the day

Progresista vs Penarol Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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