PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Providence faces the Maine Black Bears on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model rates Providence as the clear favourite, assigning an 85% chance of victory, a 15% chance for Maine, and projecting a 80-68 score that totals 148 points; the model also gives a 3% chance the game will go to overtime. Providence's recent form shows a 2-3 record over their last five games, including a 91-81 win over Butler and a 72-85 loss to St. John's, while Maine likewise sits at 2-3 in their last five, having fallen 58-60 to NJIT, 56-67 to UMass Lowell, and 67-74 to Binghamton. The Pythia model assigns Providence an 85% probability of covering the home line and a 15% probability of the Black Bears covering, and it estimates a 3% chance of overtime. With Providence's higher scoring average and Maine's recent struggles, the projected outcome reflects the model's confidence in Providence's edge, and the game will likely finish around the 148-point mark.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 78.1 | 79.0 | 157.1 | -0.9 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.4 | 80.0 | 155.4 | -4.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 79.2 | 88.2 | 167.4 | -9.0 | 11% |
| vs Similar (18) | 85.4 | 84.2 | 169.6 | +1.2 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (3) | 89.7 | 65.0 | 154.7 | +24.7 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 65.2 | 69.7 | 134.9 | -4.5 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 62.4 | 63.6 | 126.0 | -1.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (18) | 62.4 | 69.9 | 132.3 | -7.4 | 22% |
| vs Similar (11) | 60.5 | 66.2 | 126.7 | -5.6 | 27% |
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.5 | 38.4 | 76.0 | -0.9 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 38.4 | 35.4 | 73.8 | +3.0 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 36.7 | 41.5 | 78.1 | -4.8 | 33% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.3 | 37.5 | 73.8 | -1.2 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 32.6 | 41.4 | 74.0 | -8.8 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 33.8 | 42.8 | 76.6 | -9.0 | 11% | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 38.9 | 38.1 | 76.9 | +0.8 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (3) | 40.7 | 27.7 | 68.3 | +13.0 | 100% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 28.9 | 33.3 | 62.2 | -4.5 | 30% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 29.0 | 32.6 | 61.6 | -3.6 | 38% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 28.8 | 33.9 | 62.6 | -5.1 | 24% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 30.4 | 32.4 | 62.8 | -2.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 29.8 | 31.4 | 61.2 | -1.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (18) | 28.1 | 34.1 | 62.1 | -6.0 | 22% | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 27.9 | 32.3 | 60.2 | -4.4 | 36% | - |
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
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| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/26 | A | St. John's (N.Y.) | 72-85 |
| 11/03/26 | A | Butler | 91-81 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Georgetown | 79-80 |
| 05/03/26 | H | Marquette | 56-78 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Creighton | 79-76 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Xavier | 94-84 |
| 22/02/26 | A | DePaul | 71-68 |
| 14/02/26 | H | St. John's (N.Y.) | 69-79 |
| 12/02/26 | A | Seton Hall | 80-87 |
| 07/02/26 | H | DePaul | 90-72 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 | A | NJIT | 58-60 |
| 03/03/26 | H | UMass Lowell | 56-67 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Binghamton | 67-74 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Albany Great Danes | 70-59 |
| 21/02/26 | A | New Hampshire Wildcats | 61-58 |
| 14/02/26 | H | NJIT | 58-67 |
| 12/02/26 | H | UMBC Retrievers | 62-78 |
| 07/02/26 | A | Bryant University | 67-73 |
| 05/02/26 | H | Vermont | 76-70 |
| 31/01/26 | A | UMass Lowell | 77-91 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgetown | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 80.0 | 58.0 | +22.0 |
| 2 | St. John's (N.Y.) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 78.0 | 63.0 | +15.0 |
| 3 | Villanova | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 72.0 | 74.0 | -2.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UMBC Retrievers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 54.0 | 82.0 | -28.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Providence | 34 | 49 | 83 |
| Maine Black Bears | 26 | 30 | 56 |
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