Rilski Sportist will host Sporting CP in the FIBA Europe Cup on 11 November 2026, with the model favouring Sporting CP at 73% to 27% for the home side, projecting a 78-86 score and a total of 163.3 points; the home team faces a 4.5-point line and a 39% chance to cover, while the over on the 158.0 line has a 63% probability, and a 4% chance of overtime. Rilski Sportist enters the game 0-4 for the season, scoring 73.2 points per game and allowing 92.0, while Sporting CP sits 3-2, averaging 76.8 points scored and 79.2 allowed. At home, Rilski Sportist has gone 0-2, 66.0 points per game and 93.0 allowed, and in the last five games they have 2 wins and 3 losses, including a 95-65 victory over Polytechnica away, a 70-92 loss to Kolossos Rhodes at home, and an 88-79 win over Lok. Plovdiv at home. Sporting CP's road record is 1-2, 78.0 points per game and 84.0 allowed, with 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five, highlighted by a 91-48 win over Vitoria at home, a 70-106 loss to Esenler Erokspor away, and a 86-98 loss to Braga away. In their single previous meeting, Sporting CP beat Rilski Sportist 79-75 on 7 October 2026.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rilski Sportist winWon
27.3%fair 3.66
Best odds2.74
Implied34.6%
Edge-7.3pp
Sporting CP winLost
72.7%fair 1.38
Best odds1.50
Implied65.4%
Edge+7.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 18:25 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Rilski Sportist) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 163 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 160-164 (12%). The market's main line is 158.
Over/Under 153Actual: Over 153
Over 153
73.9%
@ 1.58+15.5pp
Under 153
26.1%
@ 2.22-15.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.58
Marathon Be
1.49
Under
Bet365
2.22
Over/Under 158 · main lineActual: Over 158
Over 158
62.6%
@ 2.00+12.1pp
Under 158
37.4%
@ 1.93-12.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
SBO
1.81
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
SBO
1.85
Bet365
1.71
Over/Under 163Actual: Under 163
Over 163
50.1%
Under 163
49.9%
@ 1.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
Marathon Be
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Rilski Sportist total 72.5Actual: Rilski Sportist over 72.5
Over 72.5
68.2%
Under 72.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilski Sportist total 76.5 · main lineActual: Rilski Sportist over 76.5
Over 76.5
54.1%
@ 1.86+4.1pp
Under 76.5
45.9%
@ 1.91-4.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.82
BetVictor
1.80
Under
BetVictor
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Rilski Sportist total 80.5Actual: Rilski Sportist over 80.5
Over 80.5
39.6%
Under 80.5
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP total 76.5Actual: Sporting CP under 76.5
Over 76.5
81.0%
Under 76.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP total 80.5 · main lineActual: Sporting CP under 80.5
Over 80.5
68.8%
@ 1.83+17.8pp
Under 80.5
31.2%
@ 1.91-17.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.80
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Betano
1.78
Under
BetVictor
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Sporting CP total 84.5Actual: Sporting CP under 84.5
Over 84.5
54.1%
Under 84.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Rilski Sportist's side (positive = Rilski Sportist win). Pythia's expected margin is -7.7; Rilski Sportist win by 1+ in 22% of simulations.
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Sporting CP over 80
71.2%
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Lost
Over 153
73.9%
1.54
Bet365
1.58
Marathon Bet
1.49
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Over 153.5
72.4%
1.57
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.57
Marathon Bet
1.53
-
-
+14.7pp
Won
Over 152.5
74.4%
1.51
Bet365
1.55
Marathon Bet
1.47
-
-
-
+14.7pp
Won
1st half: Sporting CP over 37.5
76.7%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+14.2pp
Lost
1st half: Sporting CP over 35.5
84.8%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Lost
Sporting CP over 70.5
92.6%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Over 154
71.8%
1.60
Bet365
1.66
Pinnacle
1.62
1xBet
1.59
Marathon Bet
1.55
-
+12.9pp
Won
Over 154.5
70.2%
1.64
Bet365
1.68
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathon Bet
1.58
-
+12.5pp
Won
1st half: Sporting CP over 33.5
90.5%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
Sporting CP over 69.5
93.8%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
Sporting CP over 67.5
95.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Sporting CP -1
72.1%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Marathon Bet
1.45
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Lost
Q1: Over 35.5
78.4%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Sporting CP -1.5
70.5%
1.50
Bet365
1.55
Marathon Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
-
-
+9.4pp
Lost
Q1: Over 33.5
85.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
1st half: Sporting CP over 31.5
94.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Sporting CP (regulation)
70.4%
1.47
Marathon Bet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Lost
Sporting CP over 65.5
97.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Sporting CP over 63.5
98.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Q1: Sporting CP over 18.5
71.7%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Lost
1st half: Rilski Sportist over 33.5
78.8%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
1st half: Sporting CP over 29.5
97.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Q1: Sporting CP over 16.5
83.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
Sporting CP over 61.5
99.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Sporting CP win
72.7%
1.45
WilliamHill
1.50
Bet365
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Marathon Bet
1.44
+7.3pp
Lost
Sporting CP over 60.5
99.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
1st half: Rilski Sportist over 31.5
85.7%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Sporting CP +6.5
85.5%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Lost
Rilski Sportist over 65.5
88.0%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Q1: Sporting CP over 12.5
96.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Rilski Sportist over 66.5
86.0%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Q1: Sporting CP over 14.5
91.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Rilski Sportist over 57.5
97.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
1st half: Rilski Sportist over 27.5
94.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Sporting CP over 59.5
99.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
1st half: Rilski Sportist over 29.5
90.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
1st half: Sporting CP +3.5
77.3%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Lost
Sporting CP +15.5
95.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Rilski Sportist over 56.5
98.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Rilski Sportist over 59.5
96.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Q1: Rilski Sportist over 14.5
85.2%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Q1: Rilski Sportist over 16.5
73.7%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Q1: Sporting CP over 10.5
98.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
1st half: Sporting CP +1.5
70.4%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
Rilski Sportist over 61.5
94.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
1st half: Sporting CP +7.5
87.7%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
Rilski Sportist over 63.5
91.4%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Q1: Rilski Sportist over 10.5
96.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
1st half: Sporting CP +5.5
83.0%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Lost
Sporting CP +10.5
91.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Sporting CP +20.5
97.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.1%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Rilski Sportist over 55.5
98.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Q1: Rilski Sportist over 12.5
92.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Q1: Rilski Sportist or Sporting CP
94.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Q1: Sporting CP +3.5
76.7%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Lost
Rilski Sportist +29.5
96.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Q1: Sporting CP +4.5
81.0%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Lost
Q1: Sporting CP under 30.5
96.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Q1: Rilski Sportist under 28.5
96.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Rilski Sportist under 96.5
95.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Sporting CP under 100.5
93.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Q1: Rilski Sportist under 26.5
91.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Q1: Sporting CP under 28.5
92.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Q1: Rilski Sportist +7.5
79.6%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Rilski Sportist +24.5
89.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
1st half: Rilski Sportist +12.5
82.8%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Q1: Rilski Sportist +5.5
70.6%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
1st half: Rilski Sportist under 47.5
87.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Lost
1st half: Rilski Sportist +10.5
76.9%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Q1: Sporting CP under 26.5
84.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Q1: Rilski Sportist under 24.5
82.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Rilski Sportist under 86.5
78.8%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
1st half: Rilski Sportist under 45.5
81.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Lost
1st half: Sporting CP under 49.5
83.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Q1: Rilski Sportist under 22.5
70.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Lost
Q1: Sporting CP under 24.5
73.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Rilski Sportist +19.5
81.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
1st half: Rilski Sportist under 43.5
73.2%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Lost
Q1: Under 45.5
72.9%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
1st half: Sporting CP under 47.5
75.7%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
Sporting CP +3
79.0%
1.26
Marathon Bet
1.26
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Over 150.5
78.3%
1.42
Marathon Bet
1.42
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Over 151
77.9%
1.43
Marathon Bet
1.43
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Sporting CP +2.5
77.4%
1.29
Marathon Bet
1.29
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Sporting CP +2
76.8%
1.31
Marathon Bet
1.31
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Over 151.5
76.4%
1.46
Marathon Bet
1.46
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Over 152
75.9%
1.48
Marathon Bet
1.48
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Draw or Sporting CP
75.1%
1.34
Marathon Bet
1.34
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Sporting CP +1.5
74.6%
1.35
Marathon Bet
1.35
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Sporting CP +1
74.1%
1.36
Marathon Bet
1.36
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
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They take 64.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 67.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Rilski Sportisttheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Rilski Sportist: 84.1 points a game allowed
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.1
20.7
55.8%
53.4%
41.4
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
25.2
9.1
36.1%
32.5%
27.3
🏀Free throws
20.3
15.4
75.9%
72.8%
15.4
Their opponents take 62.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Sporting CPtheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Sporting CP: 78.0 points a game allowed
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.0 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.0
19.0
51.4%
53.4%
38.0
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.2
8.2
31.3%
32.5%
24.6
🏀Free throws
20.6
15.4
74.8%
72.8%
15.4
Their opponents take 63.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 63.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 66.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Rilski Sportisttheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Rilski Sportist: 81.7 points a game allowed
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.3 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.9
20.2
53.3%
53.4%
40.4
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.1
8.4
32.3%
32.5%
25.3
🏀Free throws
22.3
16.0
71.5%
72.8%
16.0
Their opponents take 64.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Sporting CPtheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Sporting CP: 77.7 points a game allowed
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.7 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.0 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
36.9
18.9
51.1%
53.4%
37.7
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
27.8
9.0
32.4%
32.5%
27.0
🏀Free throws
18.4
13.0
70.7%
72.8%
13.0
Their opponents take 64.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Rilski Sportist
WLWLLWLWLL
Sporting CP
WLLLWWLWWW
#41
League position
#28
+3.2
Net rating
+2.1
100.6
Offensive rating
89.3
97.3
Defensive rating
87.2
53.4%
Effective FG%
47.7%
55.1%
Opp. effective FG%
49.5%
14.9%
Turnover %
15.9%
0.39
Free-throw rate
0.33
32.1%
3-point %
30.4%
62.3%
Assist %
62.5%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
60%
Profile
■ Rilski Sportist■ Sporting CP
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 50 teams: scroll the table.
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