Rostock host Vechta in the BBL on 15 November 2026, with the model favouring the home side at 68% versus 32% for the visitors, and projecting a 89-83 win for the hosts. Rostock finish the season 5-3, averaging 89.8 points and allowing 82.4, while Vechta sit 3-5, scoring 86.2 and conceding 90.8; the league positions are 5th for Rostock and 13th for Vechta. At home Rostock are unbeaten 4-0, posting 92.2 points and 77.0 allowed, and in the last five games they have won three and lost two, with recent results including a 71-88 loss to Cedevita Olimpija at home, a 97-87 win over Ulm, and a 86-59 away victory over San Pablo Burgos. Vechta's road record is 1-2, with 84.0 points and 82.0 allowed, and their last five mirror Rostock's with three wins and two losses; recent outings feature a 90-85 win over Hapoel Holon, a 99-90 home win against Chemnitz, and a 100-74 away triumph over Phoenix Hagen. Historically the teams have met nine times, with Rostock winning five and Vechta four, the most recent encounter on 8 May 2026 ending 90-78 in favour of Rostock. The spread is set at -7.5 for the hosts with a 46% chance of covering, the total is 174.5 with a 42% over probability, and there is a 4% chance of overtime. The projected total of 171.3 points places the game below the over line, suggesting a tighter contest than the line implies.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rostock win
68.3%fair 1.46
Best odds1.38
Implied69.5%
Edge-1.3pp
Vechta win
31.7%fair 3.15
Best odds3.20
Implied30.5%
Edge+1.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 14:24 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Rostock) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 171 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 170-174 (12%). The market's main line is 174.
Over/Under 169
Over 169
54.9%
@ 1.50-7.6pp
Under 169
45.1%
@ 2.50+7.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Marathon Be
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 174 · main line
Over 174
42.9%
@ 1.92-7.1pp
Under 174
57.1%
@ 1.92+7.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.89
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.89
SBO
1.88
Over/Under 179
Over 179
31.6%
@ 2.30-8.7pp
Under 179
68.4%
@ 1.55+8.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.30
Under
Bet365
1.55
Marathon Be
1.51
📊 3. Team Totals
Rostock total 85.5
Over 85.5
61.5%
@ 1.40-4.9pp
Under 85.5
38.5%
@ 2.75+4.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.36
Under
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.72
Rostock total 89.5 · main line
Over 89.5
46.9%
@ 1.85-5.9pp
Under 89.5
53.1%
@ 1.99+5.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.78
Marathon Be
1.75
Betano
1.72
Under
1xBet
1.99
Marathon Be
1.96
Betano
1.95
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Rostock total 93.5
Over 93.5
32.6%
@ 2.35-8.5pp
Under 93.5
67.4%
@ 1.61+8.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.07
Under
1xBet
1.61
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.47
Vechta total 80.5
Over 80.5
57.4%
@ 1.50-5.3pp
Under 80.5
42.6%
@ 2.50+5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.45
Vechta total 84.5 · main line
Over 84.5
42.8%
@ 1.95-6.1pp
Under 84.5
57.2%
@ 1.83+6.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.95
Marathon Be
1.95
BetVictor
1.88
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Be
1.78
1xBet
1.76
Vechta total 88.5
Over 88.5
29.3%
@ 2.65-5.9pp
Under 88.5
70.7%
@ 1.43+5.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.55
Under
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.40
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Rostock's side (positive = Rostock win). Pythia's expected margin is +5.9; Rostock win by 1+ in 62% of simulations.
Spread Rostock -9
ROS -9
40.3%
@ 2.25-4.0pp
VEC +9
59.7%
@ 1.70+4.0pp
Best 5 market prices
ROS
Bet365
2.25
Marathon Be
2.21
1xBet
2.19
Pinnacle
2.13
VEC
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Marathon Be
1.59
Spread Rostock -6 · main line
ROS -6
50.7%
@ 1.93+0.9pp
VEC +6
49.3%
@ 1.95-0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
ROS
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.76
VEC
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.95
1xBet
1.95
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.91
Spread Rostock -3
ROS -3
61.0%
@ 1.59+1.2pp
VEC +3
39.0%
@ 2.50-1.2pp
Best 5 market prices
ROS
Pinnacle
1.59
Bet365
1.51
Marathon Be
1.49
1xBet
1.49
VEC
Bet365
2.50
Marathon Be
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Pinnacle
2.37
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
RostockVechta
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Rostock) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winner
ROS win
62.0%
@ 1.57+2.1pp
VEC win
38.0%
@ 2.35-2.1pp
2nd half Spread Rostock -2.5 · main line
ROS -2.5
51.2%
@ 1.87+1.2pp
VEC +2.5
48.8%
@ 1.87-1.2pp
2nd half Over/Under 86.5 · main line
Over
45.7%
@ 1.93-4.3pp
Under
54.3%
@ 1.87+4.3pp
Rostock 2nd half total 44.5 · main line
Over
46.9%
@ 1.91-3.1pp
Under
53.1%
@ 1.87+3.1pp
Vechta 2nd half total 42 · main line
Over
46.0%
@ 1.88-3.7pp
Under
54.0%
@ 1.86+3.7pp
2nd half Over/Under 85
Over
51.2%
@ 1.80-0.8pp
Under
48.8%
@ 1.95+0.8pp
2nd half Spread Rostock -3.5
ROS -3.5
47.1%
@ 1.95-0.9pp
VEC +3.5
52.9%
@ 1.83+0.9pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
ROS
59.6%
@ 1.64+3.7pp
Draw
3.9%
@ 17.75-1.4pp
VEC
36.5%
@ 2.40-2.4pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 68.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 68.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Rostocktheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Rostock: 85.2 points a game allowed
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀24%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.6 pts a game · 24% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
49%
34%
17%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
38.0
18.5
48.7%
55.6%
37.0
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
27.4
9.2
33.6%
33.7%
27.6
🏀Free throws
26.9
20.6
76.6%
73.4%
20.6
Their opponents take 65.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Vechtatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Vechta: 90.4 points a game allowed
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.8 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
49%
34%
17%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
42.6
24.4
57.3%
55.6%
48.8
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
25.0
9.6
38.4%
33.7%
28.8
🏀Free throws
18.0
12.8
71.1%
73.4%
12.8
Their opponents take 67.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 67.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 67.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Rostocktheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Rostock: 81.8 points a game allowed
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.3 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.6 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
49%
34%
17%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.2
18.7
50.1%
55.6%
37.3
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.8
9.0
33.4%
33.7%
26.9
🏀Free throws
23.8
17.6
73.9%
73.4%
17.6
Their opponents take 64.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Vechtatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Vechta: 88.4 points a game allowed
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.1 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.3 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
49%
34%
17%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
40.5
24.0
59.3%
55.6%
48.1
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.4
9.0
34.1%
33.7%
27.0
🏀Free throws
18.8
13.3
71.0%
73.4%
13.3
Their opponents take 66.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Rostock
LWWWLLLLWW
Vechta
WWWLLLWLLL
#6
League position
#13
-2.9
Net rating
-11.3
91.4
Offensive rating
88.8
94.3
Defensive rating
100.0
49.7%
Effective FG%
48.8%
49.4%
Opp. effective FG%
57.4%
16.2%
Turnover %
17.3%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.29
32.7%
3-point %
29.2%
58.4%
Assist %
57.5%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
40%
Profile
■ Rostock■ Vechta
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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