PythiaBasketballBETA
Pro BRound 10· Kindarena
Rouen hosts Fos-sur-Mer on 17 November 2026 in the Pro B, and the Pythia model names Rouen the favourite with a 75% chance of victory, reflecting their 2-6 record, 83.4 points scored and 88.2 allowed per game, and a league position of 19, while Fos-sur-Mer also sits 2-6 but averages only 71.9 points and concedes 80.0, placing them 20th. Rouen's home slate shows a 2-2 record, 87.0 points for and 89.8 against, and a recent five-game stretch of 1-4, including losses to St. Chamond 81-84, Hyeres-Toulon 90-105, and Aix Maurienne 86-89. Fos-sur-Mer's road form is winless 0-4, 70.0 points for and 84.8 against, with a last-five of 2-3 that includes a 74-78 loss to Levallois and a 50-72 defeat to Quimper. Historically, Fos-sur-Mer leads 7-3 in the ten meetings, most recently winning 70-60 on 7 March 2025. The Pythia projection sets a final score of 86-78, a total of 163.3 points, and gives Rouen a 75% probability of covering the line; Fos-sur-Mer has a 25% chance of winning, and the game carries a 4% chance of overtime. The match will hinge on whether Rouen can translate their home advantage into a decisive win.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (9) | 85.4 | 87.0 | 172.4 | -1.6 | 33% |
| Season at home (5) | 90.0 | 87.2 | 177.2 | +2.8 | 60% |
| Season away (4) | 79.8 | 86.8 | 166.5 | -7.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 86.7 | 86.0 | 172.7 | +0.7 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 87.0 | 86.0 | 173.0 | +1.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 84.6 | 87.7 | 172.2 | -3.1 | 44% |
| vs Similar (18) | 84.1 | 85.2 | 169.2 | -1.1 | 44% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (3) | 88.0 | 74.7 | 162.7 | +13.3 | 67% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (9) | 72.0 | 80.0 | 152.0 | -8.0 | 22% |
| Season at home (5) | 73.6 | 76.2 | 149.8 | -2.6 | 40% |
| Season away (4) | 70.0 | 84.8 | 154.8 | -14.8 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 71.7 | 79.1 | 150.8 | -7.4 | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 67.6 | 74.6 | 142.2 | -7.0 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (24) | 73.5 | 84.4 | 157.9 | -11.0 | 17% |
| vs Similar (5) | 73.4 | 74.4 | 147.8 | -1.0 | 40% |
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 43.0 | 41.8 | 84.8 | +1.2 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 43.6 | 43.0 | 86.6 | +0.6 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 42.4 | 40.4 | 82.8 | +1.9 | 50% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 45.5 | 40.5 | 86.0 | +5.0 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 46.2 | 39.8 | 86.0 | +6.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 42.9 | 42.8 | 85.7 | +0.1 | 44% | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 42.9 | 42.1 | 85.0 | +0.9 | 44% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (3) | 44.0 | 37.3 | 81.3 | +6.7 | 100% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.6 | 41.3 | 77.0 | -5.7 | 23% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 37.4 | 39.9 | 77.4 | -2.5 | 38% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 33.6 | 42.9 | 76.5 | -9.4 | 7% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.8 | 40.3 | 77.1 | -3.5 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.0 | 35.0 | 69.0 | -1.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (24) | 35.5 | 42.2 | 77.7 | -6.7 | 21% | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 34.8 | 38.8 | 73.6 | -4.0 | 20% | - |
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 38.3 | 21.2 | 53.9% | 42.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 26.6 | 8.0 | 33.4% | 24.0 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 26.8 | 19.9 | 74.0% | 19.9 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 40.8 | 19.2 | 53.9% | 38.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 22.1 | 6.5 | 33.4% | 19.5 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 22.1 | 16.5 | 74.0% | 16.5 |
Rouen
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 07/03/25 | Rouen v Fos-sur-Mer | 70-60 |
| 05/10/24 | Fos-sur-Mer v Rouen | 75-67 |
| 05/04/24 | Fos-sur-Mer v Rouen | 83-70 |
| 27/10/23 | Rouen v Fos-sur-Mer | 88-85 |
| 04/06/21 | Rouen v Fos-sur-Mer | 79-85 |
| 04/05/21 | Fos-sur-Mer v Rouen | 93-84 |
| 06/03/20 | Fos-sur-Mer v Rouen | 76-67 |
| 10/01/20 | Rouen v Fos-sur-Mer | 83-77 |
| 04/06/18 | Rouen v Fos-sur-Mer | 70-92 |
| 02/06/18 | Fos-sur-Mer v Rouen | 79-75 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | H | Poitiers | 102-77 |
| 06/11/26 | A | St. Chamond | 81-84 |
| 30/10/26 | H | Hyeres-Toulon | 90-105 |
| 23/10/26 | A | Aix Maurienne | 86-89 |
| 20/10/26 | H | La Rochelle | 76-75 |
| 16/10/26 | A | Nantes | 78-83 |
| 09/10/26 | H | Ada Blois | 85-78 |
| 03/10/26 | A | Orleans | 74-91 |
| 25/09/26 | H | Vichy | 97-101 OT |
| 15/05/26 | H | Challans | 98-77 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | H | Chalons-Reims | 73-80 |
| 06/11/26 | A | Levallois | 74-78 |
| 30/10/26 | H | St. Chamond | 74-63 |
| 24/10/26 | A | Quimper | 50-72 |
| 21/10/26 | H | Poitiers | 67-80 |
| 16/10/26 | H | Antibes | 78-76 |
| 09/10/26 | A | Le Havre | 79-94 |
| 02/10/26 | A | Evreux | 77-95 |
| 25/09/26 | H | Hyeres-Toulon | 76-82 |
| 13/09/25 | H | Hyeres-Toulon | 69-71 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLLLW | 33% |
| Home | LWWLW | 60% |
| Away | LLLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 5 | 4 |
| Win % | 33% | 60% | 0% |
| Points / game | 85.4 | 90.0 | 79.8 |
| Allowed / game | 87.0 | 87.2 | 86.8 |
| Point differential | -1.6 | +2.8 | -7.0 |
| Avg total | 172.4 | 177.2 | 166.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 11% | 20% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 20% (5) | 50% (2) | 0% (3) |
| Overtime % | 11% | 20% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLWLL | 22% |
| Home | LWLWL | 40% |
| Away | LLLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 5 | 4 |
| Win % | 22% | 40% | 0% |
| Points / game | 72.0 | 73.6 | 70.0 |
| Allowed / game | 80.0 | 76.2 | 84.8 |
| Point differential | -8.0 | -2.6 | -14.8 |
| Avg total | 152.0 | 149.8 | 154.8 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 11% | 20% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | 100% (1) | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Denain-Voltaire | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 86.3 | 78.7 | +7.7 |
| 2 |  Orleans | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 88.6 | 81.3 | +7.2 |
| 3 |  Antibes | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 86.6 | 83.0 | +3.6 |
| 4 |  Quimper | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 81.9 | 79.7 | +2.2 |
| 5 |  Chalons-Reims | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 79.2 | 80.7 | -1.4 |
| 6 |  Poitiers | 10 | 6 | 4 | 60% | 87.0 | 84.3 | +2.7 |
| 7 |  Ada Blois | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 93.3 | 85.9 | +7.4 |
| 8 |  Evreux | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 84.3 | 83.7 | +0.7 |
| 9 |  Nantes | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 82.3 | 83.0 | -0.7 |
| 10 |  Hyeres-Toulon | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 87.4 | 89.3 | -1.9 |
| 11 |  Levallois | 10 | 5 | 5 | 50% | 83.1 | 84.5 | -1.4 |
| 12 |  Caen | 9 | 4 | 5 | 44% | 85.6 | 87.9 | -2.3 |
| 13 |  Vichy | 9 | 4 | 5 | 44% | 84.6 | 87.4 | -2.9 |
| 14 |  Aix Maurienne | 9 | 4 | 5 | 44% | 84.3 | 88.2 | -3.9 |
| 15 |  St. Chamond | 9 | 4 | 5 | 44% | 82.3 | 86.6 | -4.2 |
| 16 |  Le Havre | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33% | 89.4 | 88.9 | +0.6 |
| 17 |  La Rochelle | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33% | 85.7 | 86.4 | -0.8 |
| 18 | Rouen | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33% | 85.4 | 87.0 | -1.6 |
| 19 |  ASA | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33% | 85.2 | 88.3 | -3.1 |
| 20 | Fos-sur-Mer | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22% | 72.0 | 80.0 | -8.0 |
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