PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
The San Diego Toreros face UC Riverside on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Toreros the model favourite and a 71% chance to win. San Diego has gone 2-1 this season, scoring 83.3 points per game and allowing 78.3, while at home they are undefeated 2-0, averaging 87.5 to 76.0; their last five games were 3-2 and they lost to Colorado 75-83 away on 10 November before beating Tarleton 96-90 at home and Biola 79-62. UC Riverside is undefeated 3-0, posting 84.7 points per game against 60.7 allowed, and on the road they are 1-0 with 80.0 to 75.0; their last five games were 4-1 and they beat San Jose State 80-75 away, Denver 64-60 at home and La Verne 110-47 at home. In the three meetings between the clubs San Diego has won twice to UC Riverside's one, though the last encounter on 21 November 2025 saw UC Riverside win 85-71. Pythia projects a 79-72 score for the Toreros, a total of 150.8 points, and a 5% chance of overtime; the Toreros are 71% likely to cover the home line and 29% to win for UC Riverside. The game will hinge on San Diego's defensive edge over the high-scoring Riverside squad.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 83.3 | 78.3 | 161.7 | +5.0 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 87.5 | 76.0 | 163.5 | +11.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 75.0 | 83.0 | 158.0 | -8.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 74.3 | 76.1 | 150.4 | -1.8 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.4 | 71.0 | 145.4 | +3.4 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (18) | 71.1 | 80.8 | 151.8 | -9.7 | 22% |
| vs Similar (10) | 79.3 | 78.9 | 158.2 | +0.4 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (1) | 113.0 | 67.0 | 180.0 | +46.0 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 84.7 | 60.7 | 145.3 | +24.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 87.0 | 53.5 | 140.5 | +33.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 80.0 | 75.0 | 155.0 | +5.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.2 | 72.0 | 150.2 | +6.2 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 84.6 | 71.8 | 156.4 | +12.8 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (19) | 69.1 | 80.8 | 149.9 | -11.7 | 16% |
| vs Similar (5) | 80.8 | 79.6 | 160.4 | +1.2 | 60% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 79.6 | 67.4 | 147.0 | +12.2 | 80% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.3 | 35.3 | 69.6 | -1.0 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 36.7 | 34.6 | 71.3 | +2.1 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 32.2 | 35.9 | 68.2 | -3.7 | 44% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.7 | 34.2 | 69.9 | +1.5 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.8 | 34.0 | 71.8 | +3.8 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (18) | 32.6 | 36.3 | 68.9 | -3.8 | 39% | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 34.6 | 34.4 | 69.0 | +0.2 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | 55.0 | 32.0 | 87.0 | +23.0 | 100% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.0 | 36.1 | 71.1 | -1.1 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 36.2 | 32.9 | 69.1 | +3.3 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 34.0 | 38.9 | 72.9 | -4.9 | 19% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.2 | 32.5 | 67.7 | +2.7 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.6 | 33.0 | 70.6 | +4.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (19) | 33.0 | 38.1 | 71.1 | -5.1 | 21% | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 38.2 | 37.6 | 75.8 | +0.6 | 40% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 36.2 | 30.2 | 66.4 | +6.0 | 60% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 22/11/25 | San Diego Toreros v UC Riverside | 71-85 |
| 21/12/22 | UC Riverside v San Diego Toreros | 84-92 OT |
| 18/11/21 | San Diego Toreros v UC Riverside | 74-62 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | Colorado | 75-83 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Tarleton | 96-90 OT |
| 03/11/26 | H | Biola | 79-62 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Seattle | 56-58 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Loyola Marymount | 66-62 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Portland | 74-87 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Oregon State | 82-92 OT |
| 21/02/26 | H | Loyola Marymount | 65-77 |
| 15/02/26 | H | San Francisco | 79-92 |
| 12/02/26 | H | Portland | 71-58 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | A | San Jose State | 80-75 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Denver | 64-60 |
| 03/11/26 | H | La Verne | 110-47 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Hawaii | 74-93 |
| 01/03/26 | H | CS Northridge | 95-84 |
| 27/02/26 | A | UC Santa Barbara | 59-70 |
| 21/02/26 | H | UC Davis | 73-78 |
| 20/02/26 | H | CSU Bakersfield | 93-65 |
| 15/02/26 | A | UC San Diego | 66-72 |
| 13/02/26 | H | UC Santa Barbara | 68-76 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWL | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 83.3 | 87.5 | 75.0 |
| Allowed / game | 78.3 | 76.0 | 83.0 |
| Point differential | +5.0 | +11.5 | -8.0 |
| Avg total | 161.7 | 163.5 | 158.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 84.7 | 87.0 | 80.0 |
| Allowed / game | 60.7 | 53.5 | 75.0 |
| Point differential | +24.0 | +33.5 | +5.0 |
| Avg total | 145.3 | 140.5 | 155.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (2) | 100% (1) | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Oregon State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 97.3 | 71.0 | +26.3 |
| 2 |  Santa Clara | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 85.8 | 72.5 | +13.2 |
| 3 |  San Francisco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 72.7 | 63.3 | +9.3 |
| 4 |  Pacific | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 74.7 | 53.7 | +21.0 |
| 5 |  St. Marys (CA) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 96.7 | 81.7 | +15.0 |
| 6 | San Diego Toreros | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.3 | 78.3 | +5.0 |
| 7 |  Pepperdine | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 96.0 | 70.0 | +26.0 |
| 8 |  Gonzaga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 90.5 | 73.0 | +17.5 |
| 9 |  Portland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 86.8 | 93.5 | -6.8 |
| 10 |  Seattle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.3 | 73.3 | -3.0 |
| 11 |  Loyola Marymount | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 84.5 | 74.8 | +9.8 |
| 12 |  Washington State | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 67.7 | 77.0 | -9.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UC Irvine | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 61.7 | +29.3 |
| 2 | UC Riverside | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.7 | 60.7 | +24.0 |
| 3 |  UC Santa Barbara | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.7 | 61.7 | +22.0 |
| 4 |  UC San Diego | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 90.5 | 70.0 | +20.5 |
| 5 |  CSU Bakersfield | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.7 | 72.3 | +19.3 |
| 6 |  Hawaii | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 81.8 | 63.0 | +18.8 |
| 7 |  UC Davis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.7 | 66.7 | +7.0 |
| 8 |  CS Fullerton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 88.7 | 86.0 | +2.7 |
| 9 |  CS Northridge | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 84.3 | 81.0 | +3.3 |
| 10 |  Long Beach State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 65.0 | 69.3 | -4.3 |
| 11 |  Cal Poly | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 88.3 | -10.7 |
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