San Jose State faces UC Riverside on 12 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the Spartans at 80% due to their 1-1 record and higher points per game of 87.0 compared with the Highlanders' 2-0 record and 87.0 points per game but a lower allowed average of 53.5. San Jose State has won its only home game 95-74, while UC Riverside has won three of its last five, including a 110-47 rout of La Verne. The teams have met once before, with UC Riverside winning 80-65 in 2019. Pythia projects an 81-71 score, a total of 152.0, and gives San Jose State an 80% chance of winning and a 65% chance of covering the -5.5 spread; the over on 153.5 points has a 46% probability. The game carries a 4% overtime likelihood, and the Spartans are the clear favourite.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
San Jose State winLost
80.3%fair 1.24
Best odds1.27
Implied76.6%
Edge+3.8pp
UC Riverside winWon
19.7%fair 5.09
Best odds4.20
Implied23.4%
Edge-3.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 07:02 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (San Jose State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 149Actual: Over 149
Over 149
56.9%
@ 1.50-5.6pp
Under 149
43.1%
@ 2.50+5.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 154 · main lineActual: Over 154
Over 154
44.5%
@ 1.95-5.3pp
Under 154
55.5%
@ 1.90+5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
SBO
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Be
1.78
Over/Under 159Actual: Under 159
Over 159
32.6%
@ 2.62-2.8pp
Under 159
67.4%
@ 1.44+2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Under
Bet365
1.44
📊 3. Team Totals
San Jose State total 77Actual: San Jose State under 77
Over 77
65.6%
Under 77
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Jose State total 81 · main lineActual: San Jose State under 81
Over 81
49.4%
@ 1.85-0.9pp
Under 81
50.6%
@ 1.87+0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
San Jose State total 85Actual: San Jose State under 85
Over 85
33.2%
Under 85
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UC Riverside total 68.5Actual: UC Riverside over 68.5
Over 68.5
59.7%
@ 1.42-4.1pp
Under 68.5
40.3%
@ 2.50+4.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.50
UC Riverside total 72.5 · main lineActual: UC Riverside over 72.5
Over 72.5
44.1%
@ 1.89-5.9pp
Under 72.5
55.9%
@ 1.91+5.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.83
UC Riverside total 76.5Actual: UC Riverside over 76.5
Over 76.5
29.7%
@ 2.57-6.7pp
Under 76.5
70.3%
@ 1.50+6.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.40
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread San Jose State -11.5Actual: UC Riverside +11.5
SAN -11.5
43.5%
@ 2.35+3.4pp
UC R +11.5
56.5%
@ 1.55-3.4pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.27
UC R
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
Spread San Jose State -8.5 · main lineActual: UC Riverside +8.5
SAN -8.5
54.4%
@ 1.89+3.7pp
UC R +8.5
45.6%
@ 1.95-3.7pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Bet365
1.89
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.87
BetVictor
1.83
SBO
1.81
UC R
Marathon Be
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Spread San Jose State -5.5Actual: UC Riverside +5.5
SAN -5.5
65.3%
@ 1.83+6.6pp
UC R +5.5
34.7%
@ 2.35-6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
1xBet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
UC R
Bet365
2.35
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.30
1xBet
1.83
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
San Jose StateUC Riverside
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
San Jose State (regulation)
78.2%
1.26
Betano
1.28
Marathon Bet
1.24
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Lost
UC Riverside under 76.5
70.3%
1.45
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Lost
San Jose State -1.5
78.3%
1.28
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Lost
San Jose State -3.5
72.1%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Lost
San Jose State -2
77.5%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Lost
UC Riverside under 79.5
79.4%
1.25
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
San Jose State -2.5
74.9%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
San Jose State -4
71.2%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
UC Riverside under 78.5
76.6%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
San Jose State -3
74.2%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Lost
San Jose State -1
79.9%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Lost
Overtime: no
96.3%
1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
San Jose State +11.5
96.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
UC Riverside under 77.5
73.6%
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Lost
San Jose State +1.5
82.1%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Lost
San Jose State under 99.5
96.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
San Jose State under 97.5
95.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Under 161.5
72.3%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
San Jose State under 100.5
97.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
San Jose State win
80.3%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.24
1xBet
1.23
+3.8pp
Lost
San Jose State +6.5
91.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
San Jose State under 95.5
92.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Under 178.5
94.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Under 160.5
70.2%
1.37
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
San Jose State under 91.5
85.7%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Under 161
71.7%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Under 177.5
93.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
San Jose State over 73.5
76.9%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
San Jose State under 93.5
89.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Under 173.5
90.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
San Jose State under 86.5
71.5%
1.31
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
San Jose State over 75.5
70.4%
1.32
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+1.4pp
Lost
Under 163.5
76.2%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
UC Riverside over 55.5
93.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
San Jose State under 90.5
83.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Under 172.5
89.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Under 168.5
84.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Over 127.5
93.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
San Jose State under 87.5
74.8%
1.24
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
San Jose State under 89.5
80.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Over 128.5
92.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
UC Riverside over 57.5
90.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
San Jose State over 71.5
82.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
UC Riverside +23.5
88.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Under 167.5
82.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
San Jose State over 72.5
79.8%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Under 162.5
74.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
UC Riverside +16.5
72.9%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Over 132.5
88.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
San Jose State over 74.5
73.7%
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
UC Riverside over 59.5
87.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Won
UC Riverside +18.5
78.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Over 133.5
87.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
UC Riverside +16
72.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
UC Riverside over 61.5
82.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Over 137.5
81.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
UC Riverside over 63.5
77.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
UC Riverside over 62.5
80.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Over 142.5
71.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Over 138.5
79.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
UC Riverside over 64.5
74.0%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
UC Riverside over 65.5
70.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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