San Francisco faces Montana in the NCAA on 10 November 2026, and the Pythia model names the Gators the clear favourite, giving them an 81% chance of victory largely because of their 2-0 record, 77.5 points per game and 66.0 points allowed per game, the best season numbers in the competition. The Gators have won both of their games, scoring 77.5 and allowing 66.0, and they have won both home contests, posting a 2-0 home record with the same averages; their last five games include wins over North Dakota St 79-70 and Radford 76-62, and a close loss to Oregon State 77-78. Montana, by contrast, is 1-1 this season with 87.0 points scored and 63.5 allowed, but they have lost their only road game 69-87 and have a 0-1 road record; their last five games contain three wins and two losses, including a 105-40 win over Salish Kootenai and a 66-77 loss to Idaho. The only head-to-head meeting was a 71-67 win for San Francisco in December 2024. Pythia projects a 79-69 score, a total of 148.6, and an 81% chance for the home team, with a -11.5 line that has a 45% chance of covering; the over at 147.0 has a 54% probability, and there is a 4% chance of overtime. The Gators' recent performance suggests they will maintain their dominance.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
San Francisco winWon
81.4%fair 1.23
Best odds1.15
Implied84.8%
Edge-3.4pp
Montana winLost
18.6%fair 5.38
Best odds6.34
Implied15.2%
Edge+3.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (San Francisco) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 142Actual: Under 142
Over 142
65.7%
@ 1.43+0.8pp
Under 142
34.3%
@ 2.65-0.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.43
Under
Bet365
2.65
Over/Under 147 · main lineActual: Under 147
Over 147
53.6%
@ 1.88+3.1pp
Under 147
46.4%
@ 1.94-3.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.88
Over/Under 152Actual: Under 152
Over 152
41.2%
@ 2.50+3.7pp
Under 152
58.8%
@ 1.50-3.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
San Francisco total 76Actual: San Francisco under 76
Over 76
63.9%
Under 76
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Francisco total 80 · main lineActual: San Francisco under 80
Over 80
47.5%
@ 1.85-2.8pp
Under 80
52.5%
@ 1.87+2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
San Francisco total 84Actual: San Francisco under 84
Over 84
31.5%
Under 84
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana total 62.5Actual: Montana under 62.5
Over 62.5
74.3%
@ 1.30+3.9pp
Under 62.5
25.7%
@ 3.20-3.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Under
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.00
Montana total 66.5 · main lineActual: Montana under 66.5
Over 66.5
60.1%
@ 1.85+7.0pp
Under 66.5
39.9%
@ 2.12-7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.65
Under
Betano
2.12
Marathon Be
1.85
Montana total 70.5Actual: Montana under 70.5
Over 70.5
44.5%
@ 2.50+5.6pp
Under 70.5
55.5%
@ 1.52-5.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.25
Under
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.50
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread San Francisco -14.5Actual: Montana +14.5
SAN -14.5
34.7%
@ 2.35-8.0pp
MONT +14.5
65.3%
@ 1.69+8.0pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.27
Pinnacle
2.24
MONT
Marathon Be
1.69
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
Spread San Francisco -11.5 · main lineActual: Montana +11.5
SAN -11.5
45.0%
@ 1.95-4.3pp
MONT +11.5
55.0%
@ 1.93+4.3pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
MONT
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
1.88
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.84
Spread San Francisco -8.5Actual: Montana +8.5
SAN -8.5
56.0%
@ 1.55-4.0pp
MONT +8.5
44.0%
@ 2.35+4.0pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
MONT
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.27
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
San FranciscoMontana
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
San FranciscoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
St. Marys (CA)
#16
L
29-40
29
40
-11
A08/02
NCAA
Oregon State
#195
L
28-50
28
50
-22
H13/02
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#301
L
36-41
36
41
-5
A15/02
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
L
29-41
29
41
-12
H19/02
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
L
38-44
38
44
-6
H22/02
NCAA
Pacific
#165
W
42-35
42
35
+7
A28/02
NCAA
Portland
#253
D
29-29
29
29
+0
H08/03
NCAA
Oregon State
#195
W
32-30
32
30
+2
A09/03
NCAA
Radford
#368
W
37-30
37
30
+7
H03/11
NCAA
North Dakota St
#325
W
45-31
45
31
+14
H07/11
NCAA
71.6Avg total
34.5Scored
37.1Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 69
Last 30 (30)
33.7
33.5
67.2
+0.2
53%
40%
Last 30 at home (15)
34.9
35.3
70.2
-0.5
53%
53%
Last 30 away (15)
32.5
31.7
64.3
+0.8
53%
27%
Last 10 (10)
34.5
37.1
71.6
-2.6
40%
60%
Last 5 (5)
37.0
31.0
68.0
+6.0
80%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)
30.0
38.3
68.3
-8.3
0%
43%
vs Similar (9)
36.4
34.3
70.8
+2.1
67%
44%
vs Weaker (14)
33.8
30.6
64.4
+3.1
71%
36%
This opponent (Montana) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (San Francisco) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: San Francisco win
SAN win
no forecast
@ 1.36
MONT win
no forecast
@ 3.15
2nd half Spread San Francisco -5.5 · main lineActual: San Francisco -5.5
SAN -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
MONT +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Over/Under 76.5 · main lineActual: Under 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
San Francisco 2nd half total 41.5 · main lineActual: San Francisco under 41.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Montana 2nd half total 36.5 · main lineActual: Montana under 36.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half Spread San Francisco -4.5Actual: San Francisco -4.5
SAN -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
MONT +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half Over/Under 78.5Actual: Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: San Francisco (regulation)
SAN
no forecast
@ 1.40
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
MONT
no forecast
@ 3.20
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Montana +20
81.6%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Montana +20.5
82.0%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Montana +21
83.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
Montana +19.5
79.7%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Montana +16.5
71.6%
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Montana +17.5
74.5%
1.34
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Montana +18.5
77.2%
1.29
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Montana +16
70.7%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
San Francisco under 97.5
96.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Montana +17
73.7%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Montana +18
76.6%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Montana +19
79.2%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
San Francisco under 95.5
94.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
-
-
-
+4.3pp
-
San Francisco under 87.5
79.2%
1.23
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
San Francisco under 99.5
97.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Montana over 62.5
74.3%
1.30
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Lost
San Francisco under 93.5
92.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Montana +21.5
84.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Montana over 52.5
95.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
San Francisco under 90.5
86.8%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
San Francisco under 91.5
88.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Montana over 51.5
95.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
San Francisco under 85.5
73.0%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Montana over 54.5
92.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Montana over 53.5
93.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
San Francisco under 89.5
84.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Montana over 60.5
80.3%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Lost
Montana over 61.5
77.4%
1.23
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Lost
San Francisco +8.5
94.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Montana over 63.5
71.0%
1.34
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Lost
Montana over 56.5
89.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Montana over 58.5
85.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Lost
Montana over 55.5
91.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
San Francisco (regulation)
79.3%
1.16
Betano
1.17
Marathon Bet
1.15
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Montana over 59.5
82.9%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Lost
Under 173.5
93.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Over 123.5
93.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Lost
Montana over 57.5
87.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
San Francisco under 86.5
76.2%
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
San Francisco under 88.5
82.0%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Over 140
70.2%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Lost
Over 139.5
70.9%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Lost
Over 128.5
89.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Lost
Under 168.5
88.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
San Francisco over 70.5
81.3%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Lost
San Francisco +3.5
87.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
San Francisco over 71.5
78.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Lost
San Francisco -1.5
79.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Over 138.5
72.9%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Lost
Under 163.5
81.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Montana under 79.5
84.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
San Francisco -4.5
70.1%
1.27
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
San Francisco over 73.5
72.3%
1.23
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Lost
Montana under 77.5
79.1%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
San Francisco -3.5
73.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Montana under 75.5
73.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Over 133.5
82.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Lost
Montana under 76.5
76.3%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Under 158.5
73.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Montana under 78.5
81.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
San Francisco win
81.4%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Marathon Bet
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
Bet365
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
-3.4pp
Won
San Francisco -4
72.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Montana under 74.5
70.0%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
San Francisco over 72.5
75.5%
1.17
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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