UC Irvine hosts San Jose State on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names UC Irvine the clear favourite, rating them 95% to win largely because of their 1-0 record, 92.0 points per game and only 66.0 points allowed, placing them 87th in the league, while San Jose State also sits at 1-0 but with 95.0 points per game and 74.0 allowed, 108th in the standings; UC Irvine's home record is 1-0 with the same averages, and they have won four of their last five games, including a 92-66 victory over Chapman Panthers, whereas San Jose State has won two of five, highlighted by a 95-74 win over UTSA Roadrunners; the teams have met twice before, splitting the series 1-1, the last meeting ending 72-63 for UC Irvine; the model projects an 85-66 score, a total of 150.4 points, a home line of -8.0 with an 85% chance of covering, and a total line of 146.5 with a 59% over probability, and a 1% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UC Irvine winWon
94.9%fair 1.05
Best odds1.26
Implied76.4%
Edge+18.5pp
San Jose State winLost
5.1%fair 19.60
Best odds4.20
Implied23.6%
Edge-18.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (UC Irvine) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 141.5Actual: Over 141.5
Over 141.5
70.9%
@ 1.50+8.1pp
Under 141.5
29.1%
@ 2.60-8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 146.5 · main lineActual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
59.5%
@ 1.91+9.8pp
Under 146.5
40.5%
@ 1.90-9.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.87
Under
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
47.2%
@ 2.60+10.7pp
Under 151.5
52.8%
@ 1.47-10.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
UC Irvine total 72.5Actual: UC Irvine over 72.5
Over 72.5
no forecast
@ 1.35
Under 72.5
no forecast
@ 3.00
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.80
UC Irvine total 77 · main lineActual: UC Irvine over 77
Over 77
79.4%
@ 1.85+29.0pp
Under 77
20.6%
@ 1.88-29.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
UC Irvine total 81Actual: UC Irvine over 81
Over 81
65.6%
Under 81
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Jose State total 65Actual: San Jose State over 65
Over 65
52.3%
Under 65
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Jose State total 69 · main lineActual: San Jose State over 69
Over 69
36.0%
@ 1.87-13.8pp
Under 69
64.0%
@ 1.85+13.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
San Jose State total 73Actual: San Jose State over 73
Over 73
22.1%
Under 73
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread UC Irvine -11.5Actual: UC Irvine -11.5
UC I -11.5
75.1%
@ 2.55+37.2pp
SAN +11.5
24.9%
@ 1.52-37.2pp
Best 5 market prices
UC I
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.35
SAN
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.47
Spread UC Irvine -8.5 · main lineActual: UC Irvine -8.5
UC I -8.5
82.7%
@ 1.96+32.7pp
SAN +8.5
17.3%
@ 1.93-32.7pp
Best 5 market prices
UC I
SBO
1.96
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
BetVictor
1.88
SAN
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Spread UC Irvine -5.5Actual: UC Irvine -5.5
UC I -5.5
88.6%
@ 1.73+30.2pp
SAN +5.5
11.4%
@ 2.27-30.2pp
Best 5 market prices
UC I
1xBet
1.73
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.55
SAN
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.22
1xBet
2.00
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
UC IrvineSan Jose State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
UC Irvine -11
77.2%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+39.7pp
Won
UC Irvine -13
71.4%
2.90
Bet365
2.90
-
-
-
-
+39.5pp
Lost
UC Irvine -12
74.4%
2.65
Bet365
2.65
-
-
-
-
+39.3pp
Push
UC Irvine -11.5
75.1%
2.45
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.35
-
-
-
+37.2pp
Won
UC Irvine -12.5
72.2%
2.63
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.52
-
-
-
+37.1pp
Lost
UC Irvine -10
79.8%
2.21
Pinnacle
2.21
Bet365
2.20
-
-
-
+36.5pp
Won
UC Irvine -10.5
77.8%
2.26
Pinnacle
2.31
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.18
-
-
+36.3pp
Won
UC Irvine -9.5
80.3%
2.09
Pinnacle
2.11
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
-
-
+35.0pp
Won
UC Irvine -9
82.3%
1.97
Pinnacle
2.01
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.90
-
-
+34.6pp
Won
UC Irvine -8.5
82.7%
1.91
SBO
1.96
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
BetVictor
1.88
+32.7pp
Won
UC Irvine -8
84.5%
1.83
SBO
1.87
Bet365
1.86
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.79
-
+31.9pp
Won
UC Irvine -5.5
88.6%
1.62
1xBet
1.73
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.55
-
-
+30.2pp
Won
UC Irvine -7.5
84.8%
1.76
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.75
BetVictor
1.75
+30.1pp
Won
UC Irvine -6
88.4%
1.63
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+29.9pp
Won
UC Irvine -5
90.1%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+29.7pp
Won
UC Irvine -7
86.6%
1.71
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.68
-
-
+29.6pp
Won
UC Irvine over 77
79.4%
1.83
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
-
-
+29.0pp
Won
UC Irvine over 79.5
70.5%
2.18
Betano
2.18
-
-
-
-
+28.9pp
Won
UC Irvine over 78.5
73.9%
2.05
Betano
2.05
-
-
-
-
+28.6pp
Won
UC Irvine over 75.5
82.7%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
+28.5pp
Won
UC Irvine over 76.5
80.0%
1.80
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.75
-
+28.3pp
Won
UC Irvine over 77.5
77.1%
1.89
Pinnacle
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.86
+28.1pp
Won
UC Irvine -6.5
86.8%
1.67
1xBet
1.73
Bet365
1.68
Marathon Bet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.63
+28.1pp
Won
UC Irvine -4.5
90.3%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+27.7pp
Won
UC Irvine -4
91.6%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+27.4pp
Won
UC Irvine -3.5
91.7%
1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+26.0pp
Won
UC Irvine -3
92.8%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+25.2pp
Won
UC Irvine -2.5
92.8%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+24.0pp
Won
UC Irvine over 74.5
85.2%
1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
-
-
+23.9pp
Won
UC Irvine (regulation)
94.0%
1.27
Betano
1.28
Marathon Bet
1.27
-
-
-
+23.4pp
Won
UC Irvine -2
94.1%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+23.1pp
Won
UC Irvine over 73.5
87.4%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+22.8pp
Won
UC Irvine -1.5
94.2%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
+22.3pp
Won
UC Irvine -1
94.9%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+20.8pp
Won
UC Irvine +1.5
95.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
UC Irvine win
94.9%
1.24
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathon Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.24
+18.5pp
Won
UC Irvine +2.5
96.2%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Won
San Jose State under 72.5
75.6%
1.47
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.44
-
-
+12.9pp
Lost
San Jose State under 73.5
78.6%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Lost
San Jose State under 71.5
72.4%
1.53
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.53
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Lost
San Jose State under 75.5
83.8%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+12.2pp
Lost
UC Irvine +6.5
98.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
San Jose State under 74.5
81.3%
1.30
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+10.4pp
Lost
UC Irvine +7.5
98.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
San Jose State under 77.5
88.1%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Lost
San Jose State under 76.5
86.1%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Lost
Over 141.5
70.9%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
UC Irvine +11.5
99.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
Over 140.5
73.0%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
UC Irvine +12.5
99.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Over 142
70.3%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.7%
1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+7.6pp
-
Over 140
74.5%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Over 141
72.4%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Over 139.5
75.0%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Over 139
76.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Over 138.5
77.0%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Over 136.5
80.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Over 121.5
96.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Over 126.5
93.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Over 131.5
88.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Under 171.5
90.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
San Jose State over 52.5
90.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
San Jose State over 54.5
86.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Under 166.5
84.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.0pp
Lost
UC Irvine under 96.5
88.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
San Jose State over 56.5
81.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
UC Irvine under 94.5
83.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-7.8pp
Won
Under 161.5
75.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.9pp
Lost
San Jose State over 58.5
76.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-10.0pp
Won
San Jose State over 59.5
72.9%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-10.1pp
Won
UC Irvine under 92.5
78.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-12.0pp
Won
UC Irvine under 90.5
71.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-16.5pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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