Santa Clara hosts Sacramento State on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Santa Clara the clear favourite, rating them 99% to win because of their undefeated 2-0 record, 92.0 points per game and only 71.0 allowed, placing them 109th in the league, while Sacramento State sits 121st with a 1-0 record, 90.0 points per game and 74.0 allowed. Santa Clara has won both of its games, including a 95-72 victory over Wisc. Milwaukee at home on 4 November and a 89-70 win over Towson on 2 November, and has not lost in its last five games. Sacramento State has one win, a 90-74 victory over William Jessup on 2 November, and has lost three of its last five. The teams have met twice before, with Santa Clara winning both times, most recently 72-65 on 3 December 2022. Pythia projects a 95-67 score, a 161.8 total, and gives Santa Clara a 99% chance to win, 1% for Sacramento State; the home line is -20.0 with a 75% probability of covering, and the over on 163.5 has a 46% chance, with no overtime expected. The game will be decided by Santa Clara's dominant offensive output.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Santa Clara winWon
98.7%fair 1.01
Best odds1.04
Implied92.7%
Edge+6.0pp
Sacramento State winLost
1.3%fair 77.05
Best odds17.00
Implied7.3%
Edge-6.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 165Actual: Under 165
Over 165
41.7%
@ 1.71-13.8pp
Under 165
58.3%
@ 2.60+13.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathon Be
1.65
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Pinnacle
2.14
Over/Under 170 · main lineActual: Under 170
Over 170
29.9%
@ 1.89-20.4pp
Under 170
70.1%
@ 1.92+20.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.87
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.84
Over/Under 175Actual: Under 175
Over 175
19.9%
@ 2.50-17.6pp
Under 175
80.1%
@ 1.50+17.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Santa Clara total 90Actual: Santa Clara under 90
Over 90
68.5%
Under 90
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Clara total 94 · main lineActual: Santa Clara under 94
Over 94
52.4%
@ 1.85+2.4pp
Under 94
47.6%
@ 1.85-2.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Santa Clara total 98Actual: Santa Clara under 98
Over 98
35.9%
Under 98
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sacramento State total 70Actual: Sacramento State over 70
Over 70
38.2%
Under 70
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sacramento State total 74 · main lineActual: Sacramento State over 74
Over 74
23.7%
@ 1.85-26.3pp
Under 74
76.3%
@ 1.85+26.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Sacramento State total 77.5Actual: Sacramento State under 77.5
Over 77.5
14.9%
@ 2.62-29.9pp
Under 77.5
85.1%
@ 1.71+29.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.62
Betano
2.52
Pinnacle
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.71
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.42
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Santa Clara -23Actual: Sacramento State +23
SANT -23
65.7%
@ 2.40+23.1pp
SACR +23
34.3%
@ 1.67-23.1pp
Best 5 market prices
SANT
Bet365
2.40
Pinnacle
2.25
SACR
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.52
Spread Santa Clara -20 · main lineActual: Sacramento State +20
SANT -20
75.0%
@ 1.96+25.9pp
SACR +20
25.0%
@ 1.89-25.9pp
Best 5 market prices
SANT
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.93
SBO
1.92
Marathon Be
1.91
SACR
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Be
1.80
Spread Santa Clara -17Actual: Sacramento State +17
SANT -17
82.6%
@ 1.58+24.2pp
SACR +17
17.4%
@ 2.22-24.2pp
Best 5 market prices
SANT
Bet365
1.58
SACR
Bet365
2.22
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Santa ClaraSacramento State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Santa ClaraLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Gonzaga
#9
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H15/02
NCAA
San Francisco
#191
W
44-38
44
38
+6
A22/02
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#16
L
36-42
36
42
-6
A26/02
NCAA
Oregon State
#195
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H01/03
NCAA
Pacific
#165
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H09/03
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#16
L
32-35
32
35
-3
A10/03
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
W
33-29
33
29
+4
A11/03
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
31-29
31
29
+2
A20/03
NCAA
Towson
#334
W
43-35
43
35
+8
H03/11
NCAA
Wisc. Milwaukee
#284
W
46-27
46
27
+19
H05/11
NCAA
73.7Avg total
38.7Scored
35.0Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 81
Last 30 (30)
40.5
34.3
74.8
+6.2
70%
27%
Last 30 at home (16)
41.1
34.2
75.3
+6.9
81%
31%
Last 30 away (14)
39.8
34.4
74.1
+5.4
57%
21%
Last 10 (10)
38.7
35.0
73.7
+3.7
70%
30%
Last 5 (5)
37.0
31.0
68.0
+6.0
80%
0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)
36.3
36.7
73.0
-0.3
33%
33%
vs Similar (5)
33.4
35.2
68.6
-1.8
40%
0%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)
42.7
33.7
76.4
+9.0
82%
32%
This opponent (Sacramento State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Sacramento State win
SANT win
no forecast
@ 1.18
SACR win
no forecast
@ 5.00
2nd half Spread Santa Clara -8.5 · main lineActual: Sacramento State +8.5
SANT -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
SACR +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Over/Under 89.5 · main lineActual: Under 89.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Santa Clara 2nd half total 48.5 · main lineActual: Santa Clara under 48.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Sacramento State 2nd half total 40.5 · main lineActual: Sacramento State over 40.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Spread Santa Clara -9.5Actual: Sacramento State +9.5
SANT -9.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
SACR +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Over/Under 87.5Actual: Under 87.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Santa Clara (regulation)
SANT
no forecast
@ 1.20
Draw
no forecast
@ 24.00
SACR
no forecast
@ 4.90
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Sacramento State under 76
82.2%
1.83
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
-
-
+31.8pp
Lost
Sacramento State under 77.5
85.1%
1.52
Pinnacle
1.71
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.42
-
-
+29.9pp
Won
Sacramento State under 74.5
77.0%
1.89
Pinnacle
1.99
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
+29.7pp
Lost
Sacramento State under 75.5
80.0%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
+29.6pp
Lost
Sacramento State under 75
79.4%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+29.4pp
Lost
Sacramento State under 76.5
82.6%
1.59
Pinnacle
1.76
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
-
-
+29.1pp
Lost
Santa Clara -21
72.1%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.16
Bet365
2.05
SBO
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.94
-
+27.8pp
Lost
Sacramento State under 73.5
73.9%
1.91
Pinnacle
2.02
Betano
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
+27.3pp
Lost
Santa Clara -20.5
72.9%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.06
SBO
2.00
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.88
+26.4pp
Lost
Sacramento State under 74
76.3%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+26.3pp
Lost
Santa Clara -20
75.0%
1.93
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.93
SBO
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.91
-
+25.9pp
Lost
Sacramento State under 72.5
70.5%
2.08
1xBet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.11
Betano
2.07
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.83
+25.9pp
Lost
Santa Clara -17
82.6%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Lost
Santa Clara -19.5
75.7%
1.85
Bet365
1.89
Marathon Bet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
+24.2pp
Lost
Santa Clara -19
77.8%
1.77
Marathon Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
SBO
1.74
Bet365
1.74
-
+24.0pp
Lost
Sacramento State under 73
73.0%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+23.5pp
Lost
Santa Clara -16.5
83.0%
1.60
1xBet
1.73
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.53
-
-
+23.3pp
Lost
Santa Clara -18
80.3%
1.67
Bet365
1.68
Pinnacle
1.66
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Lost
Under 174
78.3%
1.63
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.55
-
-
+22.5pp
Won
Under 173
76.4%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.76
SBO
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
-
+22.4pp
Won
Santa Clara -18.5
78.4%
1.74
SBO
1.78
Betano
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Bet365
1.71
+22.4pp
Lost
Santa Clara -16
84.7%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+22.2pp
Lost
Under 173.5
76.8%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.74
SBO
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.42
+22.1pp
Won
Santa Clara -15.5
85.1%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+21.9pp
Lost
Santa Clara -15
86.7%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+21.7pp
Lost
Santa Clara -14.5
86.9%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+20.8pp
Lost
Under 170
70.1%
1.89
Bet365
1.92
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
+20.4pp
Won
Santa Clara -14
88.4%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Lost
Under 171
72.3%
1.79
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.75
-
+20.3pp
Won
Santa Clara -17.5
80.8%
1.61
Bet365
1.64
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.58
-
-
+20.3pp
Lost
Under 172
74.4%
1.71
Pinnacle
1.75
SBO
1.74
Bet365
1.68
Marathon Bet
1.66
-
+20.2pp
Won
Under 170.5
70.8%
1.85
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
+20.0pp
Won
Under 171.5
72.9%
1.80
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
+19.7pp
Won
Under 172.5
74.9%
1.69
WilliamHill
1.80
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.69
Bet365
1.66
+19.7pp
Won
Santa Clara -13.5
88.6%
1.34
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+19.5pp
Lost
Santa Clara -13
89.9%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Lost
Santa Clara -12.5
90.1%
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Lost
Under 175
80.1%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+17.6pp
Won
Under 176
81.8%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+17.3pp
Won
Under 175.5
80.4%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Won
Santa Clara -12
91.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+16.8pp
Lost
Santa Clara -11.5
91.4%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Lost
Under 177
83.4%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+16.4pp
Won
Under 176.5
82.1%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+16.1pp
Won
Under 177.5
83.7%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+15.6pp
Won
Under 178
84.9%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Under 178.5
85.2%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+14.7pp
Won
Under 174.5
78.7%
1.45
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+14.4pp
Won
Santa Clara -9.5
93.7%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+14.2pp
Lost
Under 180.5
87.9%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Santa Clara (regulation)
98.4%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
Santa Clara -4.5
97.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Santa Clara win
98.7%
1.02
Betano
1.04
WilliamHill
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Marathon Bet
1.01
+6.0pp
Won
Santa Clara over 88.5
73.1%
1.35
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
Santa Clara over 76.5
96.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Santa Clara over 77.5
95.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Santa Clara over 73.5
98.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Santa Clara over 75.5
97.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Santa Clara over 78.5
94.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Santa Clara over 79.5
93.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Santa Clara over 74.5
97.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Santa Clara under 102.5
78.8%
1.24
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Santa Clara over 80.5
92.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Santa Clara over 81.5
90.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Santa Clara over 82.5
88.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Santa Clara over 85.5
82.1%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Lost
Santa Clara over 83.5
86.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Lost
Santa Clara over 84.5
84.6%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Lost
Santa Clara under 101.5
75.8%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Santa Clara over 86.5
79.3%
1.19
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Lost
Santa Clara under 103.5
81.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Santa Clara under 100.5
72.5%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Santa Clara over 87.5
76.3%
1.21
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-2.5pp
Lost
Sacramento State over 56.5
85.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
Over 145.5
84.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
Over 146.5
82.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-8.6pp
Won
Sacramento State over 57.5
83.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.4pp
Won
Sacramento State over 58.5
80.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-11.4pp
Won
Over 150.5
75.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-12.9pp
Won
Sacramento State over 59.5
78.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-13.2pp
Won
Over 151.5
73.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-15.1pp
Won
Sacramento State over 60.5
74.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-15.6pp
Won
Sacramento State over 61.5
71.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-17.8pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
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A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.