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Seattle vs Portland State Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 08 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 03:00
Projected 76-65
Projected total 141.5
Final 79-60
28-28 51-32
Position#215
Record0-1
FormWWWLL
Points / game73.0
Allowed / game74.0
Seattle 🏆
USA
Vs
82%
18%
■ SEAT 82%■ PORT 18%
Pythia win probability
Position#191
Record1-0
FormLWWLW
Points / game111.0
Allowed / game59.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Seattle v Portland State
07 Nov 2026
SEAT79
PORT60
04 Dec 2024
SEAT91
PORT74
13 Nov 2022
SEAT83
PORT71
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Seattle faces Portland State on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring Seattle at 82% due to its 0-1 record, 73.0 points per game and 74.0 allowed, and a 1-0 record for Portland State with 111.0 points per game and 59.0 allowed. Seattle's single game was a 73-74 loss to Hawaii, while Portland State won 111-59 against Lewis & Clark College, then lost 72-75 to Montana and won 85-78 over Idaho State. In the two meetings Seattle has won both, most recently 91-74 on 4 December 2024. The projected score is 76-65 for Seattle, with a total of 141.5 points; the home line is -10.5 and the model gives a 50% chance Seattle covers, while the over/under line is 144.0 with a 43% probability of the over. The overtime probability is 3%. Seattle's recent 3-2 run in five games and Portland State's 3-2 run suggest a competitive matchup, but Seattle's higher scoring average and defensive record give it the edge.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Seattle winWon
82.5%fair 1.21
Best odds1.18
Implied81.8%
Edge+0.7pp
Portland State winLost
17.5%fair 5.71
Best odds5.60
Implied18.2%
Edge-0.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SeattleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portland
#253
L
53-54
53
54
-1
A08/02
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
L
72-84
72
84
-12
A12/02
NCAA
Oregon State
#195
W
60-50
60
50
+10
H16/02
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#16
L
70-72
70
72
-2
H19/02
NCAA
Portland
#253
W
71-59
71
59
+12
H22/02
NCAA
Pepperdine
#347
W
87-80
87
80
+7
A26/02
NCAA
Loyola Marymount
#234
W
71-66
71
66
+5
A01/03
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#301
W
58-56
58
56
+2
H07/03
NCAA
Pacific
#165
L
58-61
58
61
-3
A08/03
NCAA
Hawaii
#51
L
73-74
73
74
-1
A03/11
NCAA
1H
2H
27-19
26-35
29-33
43-51
36-18
24-32
28-35
42-37
29-20
42-39
39-27
48-53
29-32
42-34
30-35
28-21
29-32
29-29
39-47
34-27
132.9Avg total
67.3Scored
65.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)73.074.0147.0-1.00%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)73.074.0147.0-1.00%
Last 10 (10)67.365.6132.9+1.750%
Last 5 (5)69.467.4136.8+2.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)68.879.0147.8-10.20%
vs Similar (10)67.464.8132.2+2.660%
vs Weaker (12)67.964.4132.3+3.575%
This opponent (Portland State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Portland StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Arizona
#335
W
77-68
77
68
+9
A13/02
NCAA
Northern Colorado
#97
L
65-77
65
77
-12
A14/02
NCAA
Idaho
#136
W
77-67
77
67
+10
H20/02
NCAA
East. Washington
#261
L
55-67
55
67
-12
H21/02
NCAA
Montana State
#144
L
69-84
69
84
-15
A27/02
NCAA
Montana
#186
L
68-74
68
74
-6
A28/02
NCAA
Weber State
#201
W
84-60
84
60
+24
H03/03
NCAA
Idaho State
#284
W
85-78
85
78
+7
H08/03
NCAA
Montana
#186
L
72-75
72
75
-3
H11/03
NCAA
Lewis & Clark College
#454
W
111-59
111
59
+52
H04/11
NCAA
1H
2H
29-32
48-36
34-37
31-40
41-27
36-40
30-31
25-36
34-43
35-41
28-30
40-44
43-26
41-34
36-36
49-42
24-39
48-36
51-29
60-30
147.2Avg total
76.3Scored
70.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)111.059.0170.0+52.0100%
Season at home (1)111.059.0170.0+52.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)76.370.9147.2+5.450%
Last 5 (5)84.069.2153.2+14.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (11)72.571.3143.8+1.355%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)75.569.5145.0+5.971%
This opponent (Seattle) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 139.5Actual: Under 139.5
Over 139.5
54.5%
@ 1.50-7.5pp
Under 139.5
45.5%
@ 2.50+7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 144.5 · main lineActual: Under 144.5
Over 144.5
42.3%
@ 1.92-7.1pp
Under 144.5
57.7%
@ 1.90+7.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
Under
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 149.5Actual: Under 149.5
Over 149.5
30.9%
@ 2.72-4.7pp
Under 149.5
69.1%
@ 1.47+4.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.72
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.40

📊 3. Team Totals

Seattle total 72.5Actual: Seattle over 72.5
Over 72.5
no forecast
@ 1.36
Under 72.5
no forecast
@ 2.90
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.32
Under
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.87
Seattle total 77 · main lineActual: Seattle over 77
Over 77
46.2%
@ 1.85-3.8pp
Under 77
53.8%
@ 1.85+3.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Seattle total 81Actual: Seattle under 81
Over 81
30.3%
Under 81
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portland State total 63Actual: Portland State under 63
Over 63
59.4%
Under 63
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portland State total 67 · main lineActual: Portland State under 67
Over 67
43.2%
@ 1.85-6.8pp
Under 67
56.8%
@ 1.85+6.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Portland State total 71Actual: Portland State under 71
Over 71
28.3%
Under 71
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Seattle -13.5Actual: Seattle -13.5
SEAT -13.5
39.7%
@ 2.35-0.1pp
PORT +13.5
60.3%
@ 1.55+0.1pp
Best 5 market prices
SEAT
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.30
PORT
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.52
Spread Seattle -10.5 · main lineActual: Seattle -10.5
SEAT -10.5
50.3%
@ 1.94+0.7pp
PORT +10.5
49.7%
@ 2.00-0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
SEAT
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
PORT
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Spread Seattle -7.5Actual: Seattle -7.5
SEAT -7.5
61.2%
@ 1.52+0.3pp
PORT +7.5
38.8%
@ 2.40-0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
SEAT
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.52
PORT
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.35

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +1.7+1.71st half: +2.0+2.02nd half2nd half: +0.0+0.02nd half: +3.4+3.4
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +1.7+1.71st half: +2.0+2.02nd half2nd half: +0.0+0.02nd half: +3.4+3.4
SeattlePortland State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
SeattleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portland
#253
W
27-19
27
19
+8
A08/02
NCAA
Santa Clara
#39
L
29-33
29
33
-4
A12/02
NCAA
Oregon State
#195
W
36-18
36
18
+18
H16/02
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#16
L
28-35
28
35
-7
H19/02
NCAA
Portland
#253
W
29-20
29
20
+9
H22/02
NCAA
Pepperdine
#347
W
39-27
39
27
+12
A26/02
NCAA
Loyola Marymount
#234
L
29-32
29
32
-3
A01/03
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#301
L
30-35
30
35
-5
H07/03
NCAA
Pacific
#165
L
29-32
29
32
-3
A08/03
NCAA
Hawaii
#51
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A03/11
NCAA
61.3Avg total
31.5Scored
29.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 67.5
Last 30 (30)34.431.365.6+3.147%33%
Last 30 at home (16)34.929.164.0+5.856%31%
Last 30 away (14)33.833.767.5+0.136%36%
Last 10 (10)31.529.861.3+1.740%10%
Last 5 (5)33.234.667.8-1.420%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)33.535.869.3-2.333%33%
vs Similar (10)31.232.964.1-1.710%30%
vs Weaker (12)34.428.062.4+6.475%25%
This opponent (Portland State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Portland StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Arizona
#335
L
29-32
29
32
-3
A13/02
NCAA
Northern Colorado
#97
L
34-37
34
37
-3
A14/02
NCAA
Idaho
#136
W
41-27
41
27
+14
H20/02
NCAA
East. Washington
#261
L
30-31
30
31
-1
H21/02
NCAA
Montana State
#144
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A27/02
NCAA
Montana
#186
L
28-30
28
30
-2
A28/02
NCAA
Weber State
#201
W
43-26
43
26
+17
H03/03
NCAA
Idaho State
#284
D
36-36
36
36
+0
H08/03
NCAA
Montana
#186
L
24-39
24
39
-15
H11/03
NCAA
Lewis & Clark College
#454
W
51-29
51
29
+22
H04/11
NCAA
68.0Avg total
35.0Scored
33.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 67.5
Last 30 (30)33.330.764.0+2.647%40%
Last 30 at home (16)36.129.365.4+6.862%50%
Last 30 away (14)30.132.362.4-2.129%29%
Last 10 (10)35.033.068.0+2.030%60%
Last 5 (5)36.432.068.4+4.440%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (11)31.532.063.5-0.536%36%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)32.530.663.1+1.947%35%
This opponent (Seattle) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Portland State win
SEAT win
no forecast
@ 1.32
PORT win
no forecast
@ 4.15
1st half Spread Seattle -6 · main lineActual: Portland State +6
SEAT -6
no forecast
@ 1.96
PORT +6
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 67.5 · main lineActual: Under 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
Seattle 1st half total 37.5 · main lineActual: Seattle under 37.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.00
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Portland State 1st half total 30.5 · main lineActual: Portland State under 30.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half: SEAT + total 67.5
SEAT & over
no forecast
@ 2.55
SEAT & under
no forecast
@ 2.40
1st half: Draw + total 67.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 29.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 26.00
1st half: PORT + total 67.5
PORT & over
no forecast
@ 7.50
PORT & under
no forecast
@ 7.25
1st half Over/Under 66Actual: Under 66
Over
no forecast
@ 1.69
Under
no forecast
@ 2.16
1st half Over/Under 69Actual: Under 69
Over
no forecast
@ 2.12
Under
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Seattle -7Actual: Portland State +7
SEAT -7
no forecast
@ 2.16
PORT +7
no forecast
@ 1.71
1st half Spread Seattle -5Actual: Portland State +5
SEAT -5
no forecast
@ 1.78
PORT +5
no forecast
@ 2.05
1st half Over/Under 64.5Actual: Under 64.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.52
Under
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half Over/Under 70.5Actual: Under 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.35
Under
no forecast
@ 1.52
1st half Spread Seattle -8.5Actual: Portland State +8.5
SEAT -8.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
PORT +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Seattle (regulation)
SEAT
no forecast
@ 1.31
Draw
no forecast
@ 21.00
PORT
no forecast
@ 4.15

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
SEAT win + total 144.5
🔒 Pro
PORT win + total 144.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: SEAT leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: PORT leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Portland State under 72.575.8%1.29
Betano
1.29
----+5.8ppWon
Seattle under 81.570.8%1.39
Betano
1.39
----+5.6ppWon
Seattle under 94.596.7%1.02
Bet365
1.02
----+5.2ppWon
Seattle under 86.585.3%1.15
Bet365
1.15
----+4.8ppWon
Seattle under 82.574.1%1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
---+4.8ppWon
Under 150.571.2%1.39
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
---+4.7ppWon
Seattle under 92.595.0%1.03
Bet365
1.03
----+4.6ppWon
Overtime: no96.6%1.02
Betano
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
---+4.5pp-
Seattle under 87.587.5%1.12
Bet365
1.12
----+4.4ppWon
Seattle under 96.597.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01
----+4.2ppWon
Under 151.573.2%1.34
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.31
---+4.2ppWon
Seattle under 84.580.2%1.22
Bet365
1.22
----+4.0ppWon
Seattle under 90.592.6%1.05
Bet365
1.05
----+3.9ppWon
Seattle (regulation)80.4%1.17
Marathon Bet
1.18
Betano
1.17
---+3.9ppWon
Seattle +9.595.3%1.02
Bet365
1.02
----+3.7ppWon
Portland State under 71.572.7%1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.32
---+3.7ppWon
Under 15070.6%1.38
Bet365
1.38
----+3.6ppWon
Seattle under 88.589.4%1.09
Bet365
1.09
----+3.3ppWon
Under 15172.7%1.34
Bet365
1.34
----+3.2ppWon
Portland State under 73.578.6%1.22
Bet365
1.22
----+2.5ppWon
Portland State under 77.587.9%1.09
Bet365
1.09
----+1.8ppWon
Portland State under 76.585.9%1.11
Bet365
1.11
----+1.5ppWon
Portland State +18.575.9%1.24
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.23
---+1.4ppLost
Portland State under 75.583.7%1.13
Bet365
1.13
----+1.4ppWon
Seattle +4.589.6%1.06
Bet365
1.06
----+1.3ppWon
Seattle -3.574.8%1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.26
---+1.3ppWon
Seattle -2.577.4%1.22
Bet365
1.22
----+1.2ppWon
Seattle -4.571.6%1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.31
---+1.0ppWon
Seattle -474.0%1.27
Bet365
1.27
----+0.9ppWon
Seattle -376.8%1.22
Bet365
1.22
----+0.8ppWon
Seattle win82.5%1.16
Marathon Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.16
Betano
1.15
+0.7ppWon
Seattle -570.6%1.33
Bet365
1.33
----+0.6ppWon
Portland State over 49.594.2%1.01
Bet365
1.01
----+0.5ppWon
Portland State +1875.2%1.25
Bet365
1.25
----+0.5ppLost
Portland State +20.580.9%1.15
Bet365
1.15
----+0.4ppWon
Portland State +1772.3%1.29
Bet365
1.29
----+0.4ppLost
Portland State +17.573.1%1.27
Bet365
1.27
Betano
1.26
---+0.2ppLost
Portland State over 50.592.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01
----+0.1ppWon
Portland State +16.570.2%1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
---+0.1ppLost
Portland State over 51.591.5%1.02
Bet365
1.02
-----0.0ppWon
Portland State over 52.589.9%1.02
Bet365
1.02
-----1.3ppWon
Portland State over 53.588.0%1.04
Bet365
1.04
-----1.7ppWon
Portland State over 54.585.9%1.05
Bet365
1.05
-----3.1ppWon
Portland State over 55.583.5%1.07
Bet365
1.07
-----3.6ppWon
Portland State over 56.580.9%1.09
Bet365
1.09
-----5.2ppWon
Portland State over 59.571.8%1.20
Bet365
1.20
-----6.0ppWon
Portland State over 57.578.1%1.11
Bet365
1.11
-----6.3ppWon
Portland State over 58.575.0%1.14
Bet365
1.14
-----6.4ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Seattle wins
0
Portland State wins
DateGameScore
05/12/24Seattle v Portland State91-74
13/11/22Seattle v Portland State83-71
Seattlelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26AHawaii73-74
08/03/26APacific58-61
07/03/26HSan Diego Toreros58-56
01/03/26ALoyola Marymount71-66
26/02/26APepperdine87-80
22/02/26HPortland71-59
19/02/26HSt. Marys (CA)70-72
16/02/26HOregon State60-50
12/02/26ASanta Clara72-84
08/02/26APortland53-54
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/11/26HLewis & Clark College111-59
11/03/26HMontana72-75
08/03/26HIdaho State85-78
03/03/26HWeber State84-60
28/02/26AMontana68-74
27/02/26AMontana State69-84
21/02/26HEast. Washington55-67
20/02/26HIdaho77-67
14/02/26ANorthern Colorado65-77
13/02/26ANorthern Arizona77-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Seattle
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallL0%
Home--
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %0%-0%
Points / game73.0-73.0
Allowed / game74.0-74.0
Point differential-1.0--1.0
Avg total147.0-147.0
Over 144.5100%-100%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%-0%
Portland State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game111.0111.0-
Allowed / game59.059.0-
Point differential+52.0+52.0-
Avg total170.0170.0-
Over 144.5100%100%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

West Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oregon State220100%99.064.5+34.5
2 Pacific220100%82.549.5+33.0
3 St. Marys (CA)220100%97.574.5+23.0
4 Santa Clara220100%92.071.0+21.0
5 San Diego Toreros220100%87.576.0+11.5
6 San Francisco220100%77.566.0+11.5
7 Pepperdine32167%102.365.0+37.3
8 Loyola Marymount21150%98.573.0+25.5
9 Portland21150%109.089.0+20.0
10 Gonzaga21150%90.573.0+17.5
11 Seattle1010%73.074.0-1.0
12 Washington State2020%66.079.5-13.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big Sky conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Portland State110100%111.059.0+52.0
2 Sacramento State110100%90.074.0+16.0
3 Montana21150%87.063.5+23.5
4 Idaho21150%82.067.0+15.0
5 Northern Colorado21150%90.077.0+13.0
6 Montana State21150%78.577.0+1.5
7 East. Washington2020%68.086.0-18.0
8 Northern Arizona2020%71.091.5-20.5
9 Weber State2020%77.0101.5-24.5
10 Idaho State2020%60.093.5-33.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Seattle285179
Portland State283260
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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