Seattle faces the UTSA Roadrunners on 11 November 2026 in an NCAA contest, with the Pythia model declaring Seattle the clear favourite at 98% versus 2% for UTSA, a reflection of Seattle's 1-1 record, 76.0 points per game and 67.0 allowed, and the Roadrunners' 1-1 record, 72.0 points per game and 81.5 allowed. Seattle has won its sole home game 79-60 against Portland State, while UTSA's only road loss was 74-95 to San Jose State; Seattle's last five games include three wins and two losses, and UTSA's last five include one win and four losses. Historically, Seattle has beaten UTSA once, 71-68 on 22 December 2025. Pythia projects a 85-62 score, 146.9 total points, and a 79% chance that Seattle will cover the -14.5 line; the over on the 150.5 total has a 41% probability, and there is a 1% chance of overtime. The Roadrunners' recent 70-68 win over VMI at home shows their resilience, but Seattle's superior defence and recent home form suggest they will dominate.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Seattle winLost
97.5%fair 1.03
Best odds1.09
Implied91.6%
Edge+5.9pp
UTSA Roadrunners winWon
2.5%fair 40.13
Best odds11.49
Implied8.4%
Edge-5.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Seattle) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 143Actual: Over 143
Over 143
59.7%
@ 1.43-5.3pp
Under 143
40.3%
@ 2.65+5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.43
Under
Bet365
2.65
Over/Under 148 · main lineActual: Under 148
Over 148
47.0%
@ 1.88-3.5pp
Under 148
53.0%
@ 1.94+3.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.89
SBO
1.85
Over/Under 153Actual: Under 153
Over 153
34.7%
@ 2.50-2.8pp
Under 153
65.3%
@ 1.50+2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Seattle total 79Actual: Seattle under 79
Over 79
74.3%
Under 79
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Seattle total 83 · main lineActual: Seattle under 83
Over 83
59.2%
@ 1.87+9.5pp
Under 83
40.8%
@ 1.85-9.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Seattle total 87Actual: Seattle under 87
Over 87
42.5%
Under 87
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UTSA Roadrunners total 62Actual: UTSA Roadrunners over 62
Over 62
48.3%
Under 62
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UTSA Roadrunners total 66 · main lineActual: UTSA Roadrunners over 66
Over 66
32.3%
@ 1.87-17.4pp
Under 66
67.7%
@ 1.85+17.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
UTSA Roadrunners total 70Actual: UTSA Roadrunners over 70
Over 70
19.2%
Under 70
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Seattle -20Actual: UTSA Roadrunners +20
SEAT -20
62.8%
@ 2.35+23.2pp
UTSA +20
37.2%
@ 1.54-23.2pp
Best 5 market prices
SEAT
Bet365
2.35
UTSA
Bet365
1.54
Spread Seattle -17 · main lineActual: UTSA Roadrunners +17
SEAT -17
72.6%
@ 1.92+22.4pp
UTSA +17
27.4%
@ 1.93-22.4pp
Best 5 market prices
SEAT
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
SBO
1.78
UTSA
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.93
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.83
Spread Seattle -14Actual: UTSA Roadrunners +14
SEAT -14
80.7%
@ 1.81+26.2pp
UTSA +14
19.3%
@ 2.30-26.2pp
Best 5 market prices
SEAT
SBO
1.81
Pinnacle
1.76
Bet365
1.55
UTSA
Bet365
2.30
Pinnacle
2.11
SBO
1.88
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
SeattleUTSA Roadrunners
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Seattle -14.5
78.7%
1.73
BetVictor
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
SBO
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.76
1xBet
1.72
+26.4pp
Lost
Seattle -14
80.7%
1.71
SBO
1.81
Pinnacle
1.76
Bet365
1.55
-
-
+26.2pp
Lost
Seattle -13
83.0%
1.55
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+24.6pp
Lost
Seattle -13.5
81.2%
1.61
1xBet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
-
+24.5pp
Lost
Seattle -17.5
70.4%
1.93
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
+22.8pp
Lost
Seattle -17
72.6%
1.85
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.85
SBO
1.78
-
+22.4pp
Lost
UTSA Roadrunners under 67
71.3%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+21.3pp
Lost
Seattle -16.5
73.4%
1.79
Bet365
1.84
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.80
SBO
1.78
+20.6pp
Lost
Seattle -16
75.5%
1.75
SBO
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.74
Bet365
1.74
Pinnacle
1.74
-
+20.4pp
Lost
UTSA Roadrunners under 68.5
75.6%
1.54
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.50
-
+19.7pp
Lost
Seattle -12.5
83.4%
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Lost
UTSA Roadrunners under 67.5
72.3%
1.73
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.60
+19.6pp
Lost
Seattle -15
78.2%
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.82
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.64
Pinnacle
1.62
-
+19.2pp
Lost
Seattle -15.5
76.2%
1.74
BetVictor
1.85
SBO
1.78
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Bet365
1.68
+19.1pp
Lost
Seattle -12
85.1%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+19.1pp
Lost
Seattle -11.5
85.4%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+18.9pp
Lost
Seattle -10.5
87.2%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Lost
Seattle -11
87.0%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Lost
Seattle -8.5
90.4%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+17.2pp
Lost
Seattle -8
91.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+17.2pp
Lost
Seattle -7.5
91.8%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Lost
Seattle -10
88.7%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+16.8pp
Lost
Seattle -9.5
88.9%
1.28
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Lost
Seattle -9
90.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Lost
UTSA Roadrunners under 69.5
78.6%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+14.8pp
Lost
UTSA Roadrunners under 71.5
83.9%
1.31
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+13.7pp
Lost
Seattle -6.5
93.0%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Lost
UTSA Roadrunners under 72.5
86.2%
1.26
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Lost
Seattle (regulation)
97.0%
1.06
1xBet
1.09
Betano
1.06
Marathon Bet
1.04
-
-
+12.2pp
Lost
UTSA Roadrunners under 70.5
81.4%
1.33
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+11.4pp
Lost
Seattle over 78.5
75.2%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Lost
Seattle over 79.5
71.9%
1.46
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
-
-
+9.4pp
Lost
UTSA Roadrunners under 73.5
88.2%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Lost
Seattle over 77.5
78.3%
1.32
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+8.8pp
Lost
Seattle over 75.5
83.7%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Lost
Seattle -1.5
97.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Lost
UTSA Roadrunners under 74.5
90.0%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Lost
Seattle +3.5
98.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Lost
Under 157
74.1%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners under 76.5
93.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Lost
Under 157.5
74.6%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Seattle over 72.5
90.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Lost
Under 158
76.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners under 75.5
91.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Lost
Seattle over 74.5
86.1%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Lost
Seattle win
97.5%
1.05
BetVictor
1.09
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Pinnacle
1.05
1xBet
1.04
+5.9pp
Lost
UTSA Roadrunners under 78.5
95.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Lost
Seattle over 76.5
81.1%
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Lost
UTSA Roadrunners under 80.5
96.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Lost
Seattle over 70.5
93.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Lost
Seattle over 71.5
91.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Lost
Seattle over 73.5
88.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Lost
Under 160.5
80.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Under 175.5
96.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Under 156.5
72.6%
1.34
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Under 170.5
92.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Under 165.5
87.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Under 173.5
95.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Under 155.5
70.5%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Under 156
72.0%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Under 168.5
91.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Seattle under 99.5
92.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Under 158.5
76.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Under 163.5
85.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Over 123.5
92.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Seattle under 97.5
89.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Over 125.5
90.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Over 128.5
87.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Seattle under 95.5
85.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Seattle under 93.5
79.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Over 130.5
84.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Seattle under 92.5
77.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Over 133.5
79.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
Seattle under 91.5
73.8%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners over 51.5
84.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners over 52.5
82.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.6pp
Won
Over 135.5
76.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-9.0pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners over 53.5
79.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-10.4pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners over 54.5
76.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-11.2pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners over 55.5
73.1%
1.10
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-11.5pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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