PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
The SMU Mustangs face Oral Roberts on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Mustangs the clear favourite as the Pythia model rates them 95% to win, a reflection of their undefeated 3-0 record and an average of 92.7 points scored against 68.3 allowed per game. SMU has won every game this season, including a 98-63 home victory over Prairie View A&M, a 95-70 win over VMI, and an 85-72 win over Southern Univ.; their last five games include three wins and two losses. Oral Roberts, meanwhile, is 1-2 this season, scoring 73.3 points per game while conceding 68.0, and has lost both road games, 71-80 to Tulsa and 55-85 to Central Arkansas, with a single home win of 94-39 over Northwestern Oklahoma State. The only prior meeting was in 2011 when SMU won 64-57. Pythia projects a 88-68 score, 155.8 total points, and a 95% chance of SMU covering the home line, with a 5% chance for Oral Roberts to win. The overtime probability is 1%. The Mustangs' recent dominance and the model's confidence suggest a decisive home win.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 92.0 | 67.5 | 159.5 | +24.5 | 100% |
| Season at home (4) | 92.0 | 67.5 | 159.5 | +24.5 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 81.3 | 75.3 | 156.6 | +6.0 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 89.4 | 71.8 | 161.2 | +17.6 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 74.1 | 81.6 | 155.7 | -7.4 | 14% |
| vs Similar (12) | 80.8 | 81.6 | 162.3 | -0.8 | 42% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (11) | 91.1 | 70.7 | 161.8 | +20.4 | 91% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 73.3 | 68.0 | 141.3 | +5.3 | 33% |
| Season at home (1) | 94.0 | 39.0 | 133.0 | +55.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 63.0 | 82.5 | 145.5 | -19.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 77.2 | 72.1 | 149.3 | +5.1 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 73.8 | 68.4 | 142.2 | +5.4 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (18) | 71.7 | 82.2 | 153.9 | -10.5 | 17% |
| vs Similar (7) | 64.9 | 74.9 | 139.7 | -10.0 | 14% |
| vs Weaker (4) | 86.0 | 61.0 | 147.0 | +25.0 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.8 | 36.6 | 76.4 | +3.2 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 43.1 | 35.4 | 78.5 | +7.6 | 78% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 35.0 | 38.3 | 73.3 | -3.3 | 33% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.4 | 34.3 | 71.7 | +3.1 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 44.8 | 32.4 | 77.2 | +12.4 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 37.6 | 41.3 | 78.9 | -3.7 | 29% | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 37.6 | 38.1 | 75.7 | -0.5 | 42% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (11) | 43.7 | 32.0 | 75.7 | +11.7 | 100% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.8 | 37.0 | 70.8 | -3.2 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 34.9 | 33.4 | 68.4 | +1.5 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 32.9 | 40.1 | 73.0 | -7.2 | 25% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.6 | 33.1 | 70.7 | +4.5 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.6 | 31.6 | 69.2 | +6.0 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (18) | 33.1 | 40.6 | 73.7 | -7.4 | 22% | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 30.3 | 36.9 | 67.1 | -6.6 | 29% | - |
| vs Weaker (4) | 39.8 | 26.2 | 66.0 | +13.5 | 75% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 17/03/11 | SMU Mustangs v Oral Roberts | 64-57 OT |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Ball State | 90-65 |
| 11/11/26 | H | Prairie View A&M | 98-63 |
| 06/11/26 | H | VMI | 95-70 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Southern Univ. | 85-72 |
| 19/03/26 | H | Miami (Ohio) | 79-89 |
| 11/03/26 | A | Louisville | 58-62 |
| 10/03/26 | H | Syracuse | 86-69 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Florida State | 78-91 |
| 05/03/26 | H | Miami (FL) | 69-77 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Stanford | 75-95 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | A | Tulsa | 71-80 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Northwestern Oklahoma State | 94-39 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Central Arkansas | 55-85 |
| 06/03/26 | A | North Dakota St | 65-76 |
| 05/03/26 | H | UMKC | 84-62 |
| 01/03/26 | A | UMKC | 94-70 |
| 27/02/26 | H | Denver | 102-80 |
| 22/02/26 | H | South Dakota Coyotes | 67-62 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Nebraska O. | 71-80 |
| 15/02/26 | H | South Dakota St. | 69-87 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWW | 100% |
| Home | WWWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 4 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 92.0 | 92.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 67.5 | 67.5 | - |
| Point differential | +24.5 | +24.5 | - |
| Avg total | 159.5 | 159.5 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWL | 33% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 73.3 | 94.0 | 63.0 |
| Allowed / game | 68.0 | 39.0 | 82.5 |
| Point differential | +5.3 | +55.0 | -19.5 |
| Avg total | 141.3 | 133.0 | 145.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Louisville | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 95.5 | 63.5 | +32.0 |
| 2 | SMU Mustangs | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 92.0 | 67.5 | +24.5 |
| 3 |  Boston College | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 76.3 | 53.0 | +23.3 |
| 4 |  Notre Dame | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 87.5 | 64.2 | +23.2 |
| 5 |  Virginia | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 91.8 | 69.6 | +22.2 |
| 6 |  Virginia Tech | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 89.8 | 67.8 | +22.0 |
| 7 |  NC State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.8 | 62.2 | +21.5 |
| 8 |  Pittsburgh | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 83.2 | 64.5 | +18.8 |
| 9 |  Georgia Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.0 | 69.7 | +15.3 |
| 10 |  Duke | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 90.0 | 57.0 | +33.0 |
| 11 |  Miami (FL) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.2 | 59.2 | +24.0 |
| 12 |  North Carolina | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.8 | 70.8 | +13.0 |
| 13 |  California | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.5 | 75.2 | +12.2 |
| 14 |  Stanford | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 78.5 | 69.2 | +9.2 |
| 15 |  Clemson | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 84.2 | 76.8 | +7.5 |
| 16 |  Syracuse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.3 | 63.3 | +22.0 |
| 17 |  Wake Forest | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 72.0 | 66.7 | +5.3 |
| 18 |  Florida State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.0 | 80.2 | -1.2 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  South Dakota St. | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 73.3 | 61.3 | +12.0 |
| 2 |  Nebraska O. | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 68.2 | 77.0 | -8.8 |
| 3 |  St. Thomas (Minn.) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 83.8 | 78.0 | +5.8 |
| 4 |  UMKC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 75.4 | 77.8 | -2.4 |
| 5 |  North Dakota St | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 77.2 | 83.0 | -5.8 |
| 6 | Oral Roberts | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.3 | 68.0 | +5.3 |
| 7 |  North Dakota | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.3 | 89.0 | -15.7 |
| 8 |  South Dakota Coyotes | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 84.4 | 82.8 | +1.6 |
| 9 |  Denver | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 64.0 | 69.5 | -5.5 |
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the operation of our website.
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to build a profile of you.
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they will not be adjusted to your interests.
