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SMU Mustangs vs Prairie View A&M Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Projected 90-71
Projected total 161.2
Final 98-63
52-36 46-27
Position#43
Record2-0
FormWLLWW
Points / game90.0
Allowed / game71.0
SMU Mustangs 🏆
USA
Vs
95%
■ SMU 95%■ PRAI 5%
Pythia win probability
Prairie View A&M
USA
Position#224
Record2-1
FormWLWWL
Points / game84.0
Allowed / game74.3
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · SMU Mustangs v Prairie View A&M
10 Nov 2026
SMU 98
PRAI63
18 Nov 2024
SMU 110
PRAI69
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

SMU Mustangs face Prairie View A&M in the NCAA on 10 November 2026, with the Mustangs the clear favourite as the Pythia model rates them 95% to win, a reflection of their undefeated 2-0 season record, 90.0 points scored and 71.0 allowed per game, and a league position of 88; Prairie View A&M sit 151st with a 2-1 record, 84.0 points scored and 74.3 allowed per game. The Mustangs have won both of their games, including a 95-70 victory over VMI and an 85-72 win over Southern Univ., while their last five games show three wins and two losses; their road record is 0-1 with 63 points scored and 68 allowed. Prairie View A&M's season includes a 63-68 loss to UTRGV and two home wins, 103-90 over CBS Ambassadors and 86-65 over Paul Quinn, with a road record of 0-1. In their only prior meeting, SMU won 110-69 on 18 November 2024. The Pythia model projects a 90-71 score, 161.2 total points, and a 95% chance the Mustangs will cover their line, while the over is 1% likely; the game has a 1% overtime probability.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

SMU Mustangs winWon
94.8%fair 1.05
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Prairie View A&M winLost
5.2%fair 19.39
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston College
#308
W
94-70
94
70
+24
H21/02
NCAA
California
#79
L
69-73
69
73
-4
A26/02
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
75-95
75
95
-20
A28/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
69-77
69
77
-8
H05/03
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
78-91
78
91
-13
A07/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
86-69
86
69
+17
H10/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
58-62
58
62
-4
A11/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
79-89
79
89
-10
H19/03
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#404
W
85-72
85
72
+13
H03/11
NCAA
VMI
#214
W
95-70
95
70
+25
H06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
40-36
54-34
33-38
36-35
27-34
48-61
31-38
38-39
27-45
51-46
39-38
47-31
26-26
32-36
34-43
45-46
40-38
45-34
47-28
48-42
155.6Avg total
78.8Scored
76.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)90.071.0161.0+19.0100%
Season at home (2)90.071.0161.0+19.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.876.8155.6+2.040%
Last 5 (5)80.672.4153.0+8.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)74.181.6155.7-7.414%
vs Similar (13)81.480.8162.2+0.546%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)90.173.1163.2+17.090%
This opponent (Prairie View A&M) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Prairie View A&MUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas Southern
#281
W
70-59
70
59
+11
A06/03
NCAA
Alcorn State
#348
W
65-56
65
56
+9
H10/03
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#185
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A11/03
NCAA
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
#172
W
74-55
74
55
+19
A13/03
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
W
72-66
72
66
+6
A14/03
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
W
67-55
67
55
+12
A18/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
55-114
55
114
-59
A21/03
NCAA
Paul Quinn
#379
W
86-65
86
65
+21
H03/11
NCAA
CBS Ambassadors
#398
W
103-90
103
90
+13
H06/11
NCAA
UTRGV
#167
L
63-68
63
68
-5
A07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
38-30
32-29
22-26
43-30
32-32
39-35
36-21
38-34
41-28
31-38
27-29
40-26
21-60
34-54
43-33
43-32
57-33
46-57
29-30
34-38
142.1Avg total
72.6Scored
69.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)84.074.3158.3+9.767%
Season at home (2)94.577.5172.0+17.0100%
Season away (1)63.068.0131.0-5.00%
Last 10 (10)72.669.5142.1+3.180%
Last 5 (5)74.878.4153.2-3.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)66.797.7164.3-31.00%
vs Similar (11)74.674.5149.2+0.155%
vs Weaker (14)79.074.2153.2+4.864%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147Actual: Over 147
Over 147
81.6%
Under 147
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 152Actual: Over 152
Over 152
72.0%
Under 152
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 157Actual: Over 157
Over 157
60.4%
Under 157
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

SMU Mustangs total 80.5Actual: SMU Mustangs over 80.5
Over 80.5
83.6%
Under 80.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SMU Mustangs total 84.5Actual: SMU Mustangs over 84.5
Over 84.5
71.8%
Under 84.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SMU Mustangs total 88.5Actual: SMU Mustangs over 88.5
Over 88.5
56.7%
Under 88.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prairie View A&M total 64Actual: Prairie View A&M under 64
Over 64
76.7%
Under 64
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prairie View A&M total 68Actual: Prairie View A&M under 68
Over 68
62.2%
Under 68
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prairie View A&M total 72Actual: Prairie View A&M under 72
Over 72
45.7%
Under 72
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread SMU Mustangs -3Actual: SMU Mustangs -3
SMU -3
92.7%
PRAI +3
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
SMU
No market prices yet.
PRAI
No market prices yet.
Spread SMU Mustangs 0Actual: SMU Mustangs 0
SMU 0
94.8%
PRAI 0
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
SMU
No market prices yet.
PRAI
No market prices yet.
Spread SMU Mustangs +3Actual: SMU Mustangs +3
SMU +3
96.7%
PRAI -3
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
SMU
No market prices yet.
PRAI
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -2.0-2.01st half: +2.4+2.42nd half2nd half: +4.0+4.02nd half: +0.7+0.7
-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -2.0-2.01st half: +2.4+2.42nd half2nd half: +4.0+4.02nd half: +0.7+0.7
SMU MustangsPrairie View A&M
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston College
#308
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H21/02
NCAA
California
#79
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A26/02
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A28/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
31-38
31
38
-7
H05/03
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
27-45
27
45
-18
A07/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H10/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
D
26-26
26
26
+0
A11/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
34-43
34
43
-9
H19/03
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#404
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H03/11
NCAA
VMI
#214
W
47-28
47
28
+19
H06/11
NCAA
70.8Avg total
34.4Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.237.576.8+1.757%-
Last 30 at home (17)42.236.678.9+5.676%-
Last 30 away (13)35.338.774.0-3.431%-
Last 10 (10)34.436.470.8-2.040%-
Last 5 (5)37.234.671.8+2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)37.641.378.9-3.729%-
vs Similar (13)38.238.176.3+0.246%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)41.734.275.9+7.590%-
This opponent (Prairie View A&M) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Prairie View A&MLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas Southern
#281
W
38-30
38
30
+8
A06/03
NCAA
Alcorn State
#348
L
22-26
22
26
-4
H10/03
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#185
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A11/03
NCAA
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
#172
W
36-21
36
21
+15
A13/03
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
W
41-28
41
28
+13
A14/03
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
27-29
27
29
-2
A18/03
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
21-60
21
60
-39
A21/03
NCAA
Paul Quinn
#379
W
43-33
43
33
+10
H03/11
NCAA
CBS Ambassadors
#398
W
57-33
57
33
+24
H06/11
NCAA
UTRGV
#167
L
29-30
29
30
-1
A07/11
NCAA
66.8Avg total
34.6Scored
32.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.037.674.6-0.643%-
Last 30 at home (13)37.735.473.1+2.354%-
Last 30 away (17)36.439.375.7-2.935%-
Last 10 (10)34.632.266.8+2.450%-
Last 5 (5)35.437.072.4-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)29.750.079.7-20.30%-
vs Similar (11)37.635.473.0+2.355%-
vs Weaker (14)37.337.174.4+0.136%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
SMU Mustangs wins
0
Prairie View A&M wins
DateGameScore
19/11/24SMU Mustangs v Prairie View A&M110-69
SMU Mustangslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26HVMI95-70
03/11/26HSouthern Univ.85-72
19/03/26HMiami (Ohio)79-89
11/03/26ALouisville58-62
10/03/26HSyracuse86-69
07/03/26AFlorida State78-91
05/03/26HMiami (FL)69-77
28/02/26AStanford75-95
26/02/26ACalifornia69-73
21/02/26HBoston College94-70
Prairie View A&Mlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26AUTRGV63-68
06/11/26HCBS Ambassadors103-90
03/11/26HPaul Quinn86-65
21/03/26AFlorida55-114
18/03/26ALehigh67-55
14/03/26ASouthern Univ.72-66
13/03/26AAlabama A&M Bulldogs74-55
11/03/26ABethune-Cookman71-67
10/03/26HAlcorn State65-56
06/03/26ATexas Southern70-59

📊 11. Overall Statistics

SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game90.090.0-
Allowed / game71.071.0-
Point differential+19.0+19.0-
Avg total161.0161.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Prairie View A&M
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game84.094.563.0
Allowed / game74.377.568.0
Point differential+9.7+17.0-5.0
Avg total158.3172.0131.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Louisville220100%95.563.5+32.0
2 Virginia330100%92.368.0+24.3
3 Boston College330100%76.353.0+23.3
4 Virginia Tech330100%92.369.7+22.7
5 NC State330100%84.762.3+22.3
6 Pittsburgh330100%85.764.7+21.0
7 California330100%95.074.7+20.3
8 North Carolina330100%88.368.3+20.0
9 SMU Mustangs220100%90.071.0+19.0
10 Notre Dame330100%83.766.0+17.7
11 Georgia Tech330100%85.069.7+15.3
12 Stanford330100%82.067.0+15.0
13 Clemson330100%86.374.0+12.3
14 Duke32167%90.060.3+29.7
15 Syracuse32167%85.363.3+22.0
16 Miami (FL)32167%79.761.7+18.0
17 Wake Forest32167%72.066.7+5.3
18 Florida State31233%77.387.0-9.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southwestern Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Alabama A&M Bulldogs32167%80.062.7+17.3
2 Prairie View A&M32167%84.074.3+9.7
3 Grambling St.21150%75.590.0-14.5
4 Florida A&M31233%82.078.7+3.3
5 Texas Southern31233%76.091.0-15.0
6 Jackson State31233%62.086.3-24.3
7 Bethune-Cookman3030%69.784.7-15.0
8 Alabama State2020%71.588.0-16.5
9 Miss. Valley St.2020%60.580.5-20.0
10 Southern Univ.3030%64.788.7-24.0
11 Alcorn State2020%70.596.5-26.0
12 Arkansas-Pine Bluff2020%57.0107.5-50.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
SMU Mustangs524698
Prairie View A&M362763
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