SMU Mustangs host Southern Univ. on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Mustangs the clear favourite, rating them 79% to win largely because of their dominant projected 82 points versus Southern's 73 and a projected total of 154.8 that sits comfortably below the 155.5 over line, giving the model an 8% chance the Mustangs will cover the -25.0 spread and a 48% chance the game will go over. The Mustangs have struggled recently, winning only 1 of their last 5 games and losing to Miami (Ohio) 79-89, Louisville 58-62, and beating Syracuse 86-69, while Southern has won 4 of 5, dropping to Prairie View A&M 66-72, then winning against Florida A&M 73-70 and Arkansas-Pine Bluff 84-81. The Mustangs' projected 82-73 score reflects the model's confidence that their offensive output will outpace Southern's 73, and the 4% overtime probability suggests a finish.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SMU Mustangs winWon
79.4%fair 1.26
Best odds1.01
Implied95.2%
Edge-15.9pp
Southern Univ. winLost
20.6%fair 4.85
Best odds34.00
Implied4.8%
Edge+15.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 150.5Actual: Over 150.5
Over 150.5
59.9%
@ 1.36-10.0pp
Under 150.5
40.1%
@ 3.30+10.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.30
Betano
2.87
Over/Under 155.5 · main lineActual: Over 155.5
Over 155.5
47.8%
@ 1.87-4.4pp
Under 155.5
52.2%
@ 2.50+4.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.80
1xBet
1.70
Betano
1.52
Under
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.03
Marathon Be
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 160.5Actual: Under 160.5
Over 160.5
35.9%
@ 2.03-12.7pp
Under 160.5
64.1%
@ 1.82+12.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.03
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.92
WilliamHill
1.91
Under
Betano
1.82
Marathon Be
1.81
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
📊 3. Team Totals
SMU Mustangs total 86.5Actual: SMU Mustangs under 86.5
Over 86.5
32.8%
@ 1.33-35.3pp
Under 86.5
67.2%
@ 2.85+35.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Under
Betano
2.85
SMU Mustangs total 90.5 · main lineActual: SMU Mustangs under 90.5
Over 90.5
19.9%
@ 1.85-30.1pp
Under 90.5
80.1%
@ 2.12+30.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.12
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
SMU Mustangs total 94.5Actual: SMU Mustangs under 94.5
Over 94.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
Under 94.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.10
Under
Betano
1.60
Southern Univ. total 62Actual: Southern Univ. over 62
Over 62
86.1%
Under 62
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southern Univ. total 66 · main lineActual: Southern Univ. over 66
Over 66
75.0%
@ 1.85+25.0pp
Under 66
25.0%
@ 1.85-25.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Southern Univ. total 70Actual: Southern Univ. over 70
Over 70
60.5%
Under 70
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread SMU Mustangs -28Actual: Southern Univ. +28
SMU -28
no forecast
@ 2.30
SOUT +28
no forecast
@ 1.55
Best 5 market prices
SMU
Bet365
2.30
SOUT
Bet365
1.55
Spread SMU Mustangs -25 · main lineActual: Southern Univ. +25
SMU -25
8.3%
@ 1.83-42.8pp
SOUT +25
91.7%
@ 1.90+42.8pp
Best 5 market prices
SMU
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.81
SOUT
Marathon Be
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Spread SMU Mustangs -22Actual: Southern Univ. +22
SMU -22
12.7%
@ 1.57-46.2pp
SOUT +22
87.3%
@ 2.25+46.2pp
Best 5 market prices
SMU
Bet365
1.57
SOUT
Bet365
2.25
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
SMU MustangsSouthern Univ.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Syracuse
#236
W
39-35
39
35
+4
A14/02
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
52-49
52
49
+3
H18/02
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H21/02
NCAA
California
#79
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A26/02
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A28/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
31-38
31
38
-7
H05/03
NCAA
Florida State
#167
L
27-45
27
45
-18
A07/03
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H10/03
NCAA
Louisville
#53
D
26-26
26
26
+0
A11/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#5
L
34-43
34
43
-9
H19/03
NCAA
73.0Avg total
34.8Scored
38.2Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 76
Last 30 (30)
39.5
37.2
76.7
+2.3
57%
53%
Last 30 at home (17)
42.7
36.1
78.8
+6.6
76%
65%
Last 30 away (13)
35.3
38.7
74.0
-3.4
31%
38%
Last 10 (10)
34.8
38.2
73.0
-3.4
40%
30%
Last 5 (5)
31.4
38.0
69.4
-6.6
20%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)
37.6
41.3
78.9
-3.7
29%
57%
vs Similar (14)
39.1
37.5
76.6
+1.6
50%
57%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)
41.7
33.6
75.2
+8.1
89%
44%
This opponent (Southern Univ.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Southern Univ. +18
78.8%
3.30
Bet365
3.30
-
-
-
-
+50.7pp
Won
Southern Univ. +15.5
71.1%
4.50
Bet365
4.50
-
-
-
-
+50.6pp
Won
Southern Univ. +19
81.2%
3.00
Bet365
3.00
-
-
-
-
+50.2pp
Won
Southern Univ. +20
83.5%
2.70
Bet365
2.70
-
-
-
-
+49.2pp
Won
Southern Univ. +17.5
76.8%
3.35
Bet365
3.35
-
-
-
-
+49.1pp
Won
Southern Univ. +18.5
79.3%
3.00
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.95
-
-
-
+48.4pp
Won
Southern Univ. +19.5
81.7%
2.75
Betano
2.75
Bet365
2.75
-
-
-
+48.0pp
Won
Southern Univ. +21
85.5%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+48.0pp
Won
Southern Univ. +20.5
83.8%
2.56
Betano
2.57
Bet365
2.55
-
-
-
+47.6pp
Won
Southern Univ. +21.5
85.8%
2.38
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
+46.8pp
Won
Southern Univ. +22
87.3%
2.25
Bet365
2.25
-
-
-
-
+46.2pp
Won
Southern Univ. +22.5
87.6%
2.19
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.15
-
-
-
+45.4pp
Won
Southern Univ. +23
89.0%
2.10
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
-
+44.8pp
Won
Southern Univ. +23.5
89.2%
2.06
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.07
Bet365
2.05
-
-
+44.5pp
Won
Southern Univ. +24
90.4%
2.00
Bet365
2.00
-
-
-
-
+43.9pp
Won
Southern Univ. +24.5
90.6%
1.97
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Bet365
1.95
-
-
+43.4pp
Won
Southern Univ. +25
91.7%
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.90
Bet365
1.90
-
-
-
+42.8pp
Won
SMU Mustangs under 88.5
74.0%
2.55
Betano
2.55
-
-
-
-
+38.6pp
Won
SMU Mustangs under 87.5
70.7%
2.77
Betano
2.80
Bet365
2.75
-
-
-
+37.6pp
Won
SMU Mustangs under 89.5
77.2%
2.30
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.30
-
-
-
+37.3pp
Won
SMU Mustangs under 91.5
82.8%
1.91
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.86
+36.4pp
Won
SMU Mustangs under 92
84.8%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+35.1pp
Won
SMU Mustangs under 90.5
80.1%
1.90
Betano
2.12
Marathon Bet
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
+30.1pp
Won
Southern Univ. over 65
78.2%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+28.5pp
Won
Southern Univ. over 66
75.0%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+25.0pp
Won
Southern Univ. over 67
71.7%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
-
+21.7pp
Won
Southern Univ. over 66.5
72.6%
1.85
1xBet
1.94
BetVictor
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
+21.3pp
Won
Southern Univ. over 65.5
75.8%
1.78
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.62
+21.2pp
Won
Southern Univ. over 64.5
78.8%
1.52
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
-
+19.2pp
Won
Southern Univ. over 63.5
81.6%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Won
Southern Univ. over 62.5
84.1%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Won
Southern Univ. over 59.5
90.3%
1.25
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Won
Southern Univ. over 61.5
86.4%
1.31
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+16.6pp
Won
Southern Univ. over 60.5
88.5%
1.25
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+14.7pp
Won
Under 164
72.0%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
Under 163.5
70.6%
1.56
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Under 165
74.1%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Won
Under 164.5
72.6%
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Won
Under 165.5
74.6%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Won
Under 166
76.0%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+10.3pp
Won
Southern Univ. over 57.5
93.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
Under 166.5
76.5%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Under 167
77.9%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Southern Univ. over 58.5
91.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Under 167.5
78.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Southern Univ. over 55.5
95.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
Southern Univ. over 56.5
94.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Under 169.5
81.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Under 174.5
88.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Under 168.5
80.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Under 173.5
87.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Under 172.5
85.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Under 176.5
90.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Over 131.5
92.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
Over 132.5
91.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Under 171.5
84.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Over 136.5
86.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Over 133.5
90.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Over 134.5
89.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Over 137.5
85.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Over 141.5
79.0%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Over 138.5
83.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Over 139.5
82.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.3pp
Won
Over 142.5
77.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-7.9pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 71.5
85.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.4pp
Won
Southern Univ. under 83.5
85.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.6pp
Won
Over 143.5
75.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-9.8pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 72.5
83.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.8pp
Won
Southern Univ. under 81.5
80.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.8pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 73.5
80.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-11.9pp
Won
Over 144.5
73.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-12.3pp
Won
SMU Mustangs (regulation)
77.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
-12.9pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 74.5
77.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-13.7pp
Won
Southern Univ. under 79.5
74.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-14.6pp
Won
SMU Mustangs win
79.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-15.9pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 75.5
74.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-16.8pp
Won
SMU Mustangs over 76.5
71.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-18.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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