PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Southern Illinois will host Liberty on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Salukis the clear favourite, giving them an 89% chance to win largely because of their 1-1 record, 87.5 points scored per game and only 70.0 points allowed, while Liberty sits at 1-1 with 85.0 points scored and 63.0 points allowed; Southern Illinois has a perfect 1-0 home record, averaging 82.0 points and conceding 40.0 at home, whereas Liberty's lone road outing yielded 57.0 points and 72.0 allowed. In the last five games Southern Illinois went 3-2, including a 93-100 loss to UMKC away, an 82-40 home win over Maryville, and a 63-67 home defeat to Drake, while Liberty went 2-3, with a 113-54 home victory over Boyce, a 57-72 away loss to High Point, and a 69-77 home defeat to Missouri State. The two teams have met once before, with the most recent encounter recorded as a 93-100 loss for Southern Illinois to UMKC, but no direct head-to-head between them. Pythia projects a score of 81-67, a total of 148.2 points, and assigns a 2% chance of overtime; the model also predicts an 89% probability that Southern Illinois will cover the spread and an 11% chance that Liberty will win. The game will end with Southern Illinois winning 81-67.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 85.0 | 70.0 | 155.0 | +15.0 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 81.0 | 55.0 | 136.0 | +26.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 93.0 | 100.0 | 193.0 | -7.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 73.6 | 64.7 | 138.3 | +8.9 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 79.8 | 68.8 | 148.6 | +11.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 71.0 | 66.8 | 137.8 | +4.2 | 83% |
| vs Similar ◀ (16) | 69.8 | 72.0 | 141.8 | -2.2 | 25% |
| vs Weaker (7) | 76.9 | 69.4 | 146.3 | +7.4 | 71% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 81.3 | 64.0 | 145.3 | +17.3 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 93.5 | 60.0 | 153.5 | +33.5 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 57.0 | 72.0 | 129.0 | -15.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 77.2 | 75.2 | 152.4 | +2.0 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 78.4 | 68.2 | 146.6 | +10.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar ◀ (12) | 69.9 | 72.0 | 141.9 | -2.1 | 58% |
| vs Weaker (17) | 78.8 | 71.1 | 149.9 | +7.8 | 82% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 32.6 | 31.7 | 64.3 | +0.9 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 33.9 | 28.1 | 61.9 | +5.8 | 69% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 31.2 | 35.9 | 67.1 | -4.6 | 36% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.9 | 30.1 | 66.0 | +5.8 | 70% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.6 | 30.4 | 68.0 | +7.2 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 31.2 | 30.2 | 61.3 | +1.0 | 67% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (16) | 31.5 | 32.2 | 63.7 | -0.7 | 44% | - |
| vs Weaker (7) | 36.3 | 34.9 | 71.1 | +1.4 | 57% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.0 | 32.9 | 69.9 | +4.1 | 63% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 41.6 | 32.5 | 74.1 | +9.1 | 81% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 31.8 | 33.3 | 65.1 | -1.5 | 43% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.7 | 35.3 | 73.0 | +2.4 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 40.6 | 30.8 | 71.4 | +9.8 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar ◀ (12) | 32.8 | 35.0 | 67.8 | -2.2 | 33% | - |
| vs Weaker (17) | 39.2 | 32.2 | 71.4 | +7.0 | 82% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | H | Richmond Spiders | 80-70 |
| 07/11/26 | A | UMKC | 93-100 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Maryville | 82-40 |
| 05/03/26 | H | Drake | 63-67 |
| 01/03/26 | A | Evansville | 81-67 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Indiana State | 66-55 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Northern Iowa | 59-57 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Drake | 66-61 |
| 15/02/26 | H | Bradley | 60-70 |
| 13/02/26 | H | Evansville | 86-60 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | N. Carolina Central | 74-66 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Boyce | 113-54 |
| 02/11/26 | A | High Point | 57-72 |
| 11/03/26 | H | Missouri State | 69-77 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Sam Houston St. | 79-72 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Louisiana Tech | 71-76 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Jacksonville State | 81-78 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Kennesaw State | 65-74 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Western Kentucky | 73-94 |
| 19/02/26 | H | Florida International | 90-89 OT |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLW | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 85.0 | 81.0 | 93.0 |
| Allowed / game | 70.0 | 55.0 | 100.0 |
| Point differential | +15.0 | +26.0 | -7.0 |
| Avg total | 155.0 | 136.0 | 193.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWW | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 81.3 | 93.5 | 57.0 |
| Allowed / game | 64.0 | 60.0 | 72.0 |
| Point differential | +17.3 | +33.5 | -15.0 |
| Avg total | 145.3 | 153.5 | 129.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Murray State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 67.5 | +27.5 |
| 2 |  Drake | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 62.7 | +23.0 |
| 3 |  Illinois (Chi.) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.5 | 64.8 | +14.8 |
| 4 | Southern Illinois | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 85.0 | 70.0 | +15.0 |
| 5 |  Belmont | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 74.0 | 62.3 | +11.7 |
| 6 |  Valparaiso | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 77.3 | 73.0 | +4.3 |
| 7 |  Evansville | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 75.3 | 73.0 | +2.3 |
| 8 |  Bradley | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 59.5 | 55.0 | +4.5 |
| 9 |  Northern Iowa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 87.5 | 87.5 | +0.0 |
| 10 |  Indiana State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.7 | 75.3 | -4.7 |
| 11 |  Illinois State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 81.2 | 75.8 | +5.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kennesaw State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 95.5 | 64.8 | +30.8 |
| 2 |  Missouri State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.3 | 61.3 | +24.0 |
| 3 |  Florida International | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.7 | 71.0 | +20.7 |
| 4 |  Western Kentucky | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 84.2 | 63.5 | +20.8 |
| 5 |  Middle Tenn. St. | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 80.8 | 76.2 | +4.5 |
| 6 | Liberty | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.3 | 64.0 | +17.3 |
| 7 |  Louisiana Tech | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 70.3 | 60.7 | +9.7 |
| 8 |  UTEP | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 71.7 | 67.3 | +4.3 |
| 9 |  Sam Houston St. | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 86.8 | 85.0 | +1.8 |
| 10 |  Delaware | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.7 | 62.7 | +14.0 |
| 11 |  Jacksonville State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.0 | 78.0 | +5.0 |
| 12 |  New Mexico State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 66.3 | 78.3 | -12.0 |
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