Texas A&M will host Northern Kentucky on 6 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Texas A&M the favourite with a 92% chance of victory, driven by their 1-0 record, 97.0 points per game and 66.0 allowed, placing them 81st in the league, while Northern Kentucky sits 180th with a 2-0 record, 93.0 points per game and 85.0 allowed. Texas A&M's sole home game saw them beat Alabama State 97-66, and their last five games include three wins and two losses; Northern Kentucky's road record is 1-0 with 102.0 points per game and 94.0 allowed, and their last five games feature four wins and one loss. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 91-75 score for Texas A&M, a total of 166.3 points, and gives the home team a 92% chance to win and an 8% chance for Northern Kentucky, with a 49% probability that the total will go over the 166.5 line; the model also estimates a 2% chance of overtime. The game will likely see Texas A&M maintain its dominant offensive output while Northern Kentucky struggles to contain the Aggies' defense.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Texas A&M winWon
92.5%fair 1.08
Best odds1.01
Implied94.5%
Edge-2.1pp
Northern Kentucky winLost
7.5%fair 13.29
Best odds41.00
Implied5.5%
Edge+2.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Texas A&M) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 167Actual: Over 167
Over 167
47.9%
@ 1.55-11.8pp
Under 167
52.1%
@ 2.30+11.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.55
Under
Bet365
2.30
Over/Under 172 · main lineActual: Under 172
Over 172
35.7%
@ 2.00-14.9pp
Under 172
64.3%
@ 1.93+14.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.88
Bet365
1.74
Over/Under 177Actual: Under 177
Over 177
24.8%
@ 2.70-9.5pp
Under 177
75.2%
@ 1.41+9.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.70
Under
Bet365
1.41
📊 3. Team Totals
Texas A&M total 95Actual: Texas A&M over 95
Over 95
35.6%
Under 95
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Texas A&M total 99 · main lineActual: Texas A&M over 99
Over 99
21.5%
@ 1.87-28.2pp
Under 99
78.5%
@ 1.85+28.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Texas A&M total 103Actual: Texas A&M over 103
Over 103
11.5%
Under 103
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northern Kentucky total 68Actual: Northern Kentucky under 68
Over 68
75.7%
Under 68
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northern Kentucky total 72 · main lineActual: Northern Kentucky under 72
Over 72
61.1%
@ 1.85+10.8pp
Under 72
38.9%
@ 1.87-10.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Northern Kentucky total 76Actual: Northern Kentucky under 76
Over 76
44.6%
Under 76
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Texas A&M -30.5Actual: Texas A&M -30.5
TEXA -30.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
NORT +30.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Betano
2.45
Bet365
2.40
NORT
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.47
Spread Texas A&M -27.5 · main lineActual: Texas A&M -27.5
TEXA -27.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
NORT +27.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.87
NORT
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.80
Spread Texas A&M -24.5Actual: Texas A&M -24.5
TEXA -24.5
24.2%
@ 1.67-34.1pp
NORT +24.5
75.8%
@ 2.30+34.1pp
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.66
Pinnacle
1.64
NORT
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Texas A&MNorthern Kentucky
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Northern Kentucky +24
75.1%
2.29
Pinnacle
2.39
Bet365
2.20
-
-
-
+35.0pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky +25
77.8%
2.13
Pinnacle
2.21
Bet365
2.05
-
-
-
+34.5pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky +24.5
75.8%
2.16
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
-
-
+34.1pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky +23
72.1%
2.35
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
-
+32.5pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky +23.5
73.0%
2.22
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.22
-
-
-
+31.5pp
Lost
Texas A&M under 100
81.4%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
-
+30.9pp
Lost
Texas A&M under 100.5
81.9%
1.73
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
+30.7pp
Lost
Texas A&M under 98.5
76.1%
1.90
Pinnacle
2.01
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.83
+29.0pp
Lost
Texas A&M under 99
78.5%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+28.2pp
Lost
Texas A&M under 99.5
79.1%
1.86
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Bet365
1.83
+27.9pp
Lost
Texas A&M under 97.5
72.9%
2.06
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.05
-
-
-
+27.4pp
Lost
Texas A&M under 101.5
84.4%
1.54
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
+24.7pp
Lost
Texas A&M under 102.5
86.7%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+23.2pp
Lost
Texas A&M under 103.5
88.7%
1.38
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+22.4pp
Lost
Under 175.5
71.7%
1.51
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
Under 175
71.1%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Under 176.5
73.7%
1.45
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
Under 176
73.2%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Under 177.5
75.7%
1.40
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Under 177
75.2%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Under 178
77.1%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Under 178.5
77.6%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
Northern Kentucky over 68.5
73.3%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky over 67.5
76.5%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Lost
Northern Kentucky over 64.5
84.7%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Northern Kentucky over 65.5
82.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Under 180.5
81.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Northern Kentucky over 63.5
86.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Northern Kentucky over 62.5
88.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Northern Kentucky over 60.5
92.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Northern Kentucky over 58.5
94.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Under 185.5
88.1%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Northern Kentucky over 56.5
96.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Northern Kentucky over 55.5
97.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Northern Kentucky over 57.5
95.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Northern Kentucky over 59.5
93.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Northern Kentucky over 61.5
90.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Northern Kentucky over 54.5
97.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Texas A&M (regulation)
91.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Texas A&M over 77.5
92.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Texas A&M win
92.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Over 145.5
90.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Texas A&M over 78.5
90.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Texas A&M over 79.5
88.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
Over 150.5
83.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Texas A&M over 81.5
84.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.4pp
Won
Over 155.5
74.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-9.8pp
Won
Texas A&M over 83.5
79.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
Texas A&M -6.5
81.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-10.5pp
Won
Texas A&M over 85.5
72.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-14.3pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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