PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Texas vs Chicago State Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Projected 84-65
Projected total 148.9
Final 109-59
56-30 53-29
Position#2
Record-
FormLWWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Texas 🏆
USA
Vs
94%
■ TEXA 94%■ CHIC 6%
Pythia win probability
Chicago State
USA
Position#235
Record-
FormLWLLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Texas v Chicago State
02 Nov 2026
TEXA109
CHIC59
12 Nov 2024
TEXA105
CHIC58
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Texas faces Chicago State in the NCAA on 2 November 2026, and the Pythia model names Texas as the clear favourite with a 94% chance of victory, reflecting the team's dominant season performance and the 84-65 projected score; Chicago State has only a 6% chance of winning. Texas is projected to score 84 points to Chicago State's 65, giving a total of 148.9 points, which is below the 150.0 over/under line and the model assigns a 47% probability that the game will go over. The teams' recent form shows Texas winning three of its last five games, including a 79-71 win over Brigham Young, while Chicago State has won only one of its last five, losing to LIU Sharks, Wagner and again to LIU Sharks. In their sole prior encounter on 12 November 2024, Texas defeated Chicago State 105-58. The overtime probability is 1%, and the game is expected to stay within the projected points range, with Texas maintaining its historical advantage in head-to-head matchups.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Texas winWon
94.4%fair 1.06
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Chicago State winLost
5.6%fair 18.01
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TexasUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia
#68
L
80-91
80
91
-11
A21/02
NCAA
Florida
#28
L
71-84
71
84
-13
H26/02
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
W
76-70
76
70
+6
A28/02
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
85-105
85
105
-20
A05/03
NCAA
Oklahoma
#154
L
85-88 OT
85
88
-3
H08/03
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
66-76
66
76
-10
H11/03
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
68-66
68
66
+2
A18/03
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
W
79-71
79
71
+8
A19/03
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
W
74-68
74
68
+6
A21/03
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
77-79
77
79
-2
A26/03
NCAA
1H
2H
35-45
45-46
39-36
32-48
29-30
47-40
34-56
51-49
40-36
37-41
30-41
36-35
30-29
38-37
46-37
33-34
35-33
39-35
35-39
42-40
155.9Avg total
76.1Scored
79.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)76.179.8155.9-3.740%
Last 5 (5)72.872.0144.8+0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)73.073.2146.2-0.240%
vs Similar (17)81.181.5162.5-0.453%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)91.273.9165.1+17.475%
This opponent (Chicago State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Chicago StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Central Connecticut State
#114
L
67-78
67
78
-11
A06/02
NCAA
New Haven Chargers
#250
W
63-57
63
57
+6
A07/02
NCAA
St. Francis (PA)
#359
W
80-75
80
75
+5
H09/02
NCAA
Stonehill
#283
W
68-55
68
55
+13
H13/02
NCAA
Le Moyne
#240
L
63-81
63
81
-18
A14/02
NCAA
Fairleigh Dickinson
#315
L
59-60
59
60
-1
H20/02
NCAA
Central Connecticut State
#114
W
70-51
70
51
+19
H21/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
56-73
56
73
-17
A27/02
NCAA
Wagner
#249
L
61-80
61
80
-19
A28/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
75-79
75
79
-4
A05/03
NCAA
1H
2H
28-35
39-43
32-22
31-35
36-33
44-42
38-19
30-36
29-42
34-39
26-28
33-32
28-25
42-26
31-32
25-41
24-42
37-38
33-40
42-39
135.1Avg total
66.2Scored
68.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)66.268.9135.1-2.740%
Last 5 (5)64.268.6132.8-4.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)63.474.7138.0-11.315%
vs Similar (3)74.777.0151.7-2.367%
vs Weaker (1)85.062.0147.0+23.0100%
This opponent (Texas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 145Actual: Over 145
Over 145
59.5%
@ 1.50-3.0pp
Under 145
40.5%
@ 2.50+3.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 150 · main lineActual: Over 150
Over 150
46.9%
@ 1.95-2.6pp
Under 150
53.1%
@ 1.84+2.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 155Actual: Over 155
Over 155
34.6%
@ 2.65-0.4pp
Under 155
65.4%
@ 1.43+0.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Under
Bet365
1.43

📊 3. Team Totals

Texas total 90.5Actual: Texas over 90.5
Over 90.5
24.7%
@ 1.40-40.9pp
Under 90.5
75.3%
@ 2.72+40.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
Under
Bet365
2.72
Betano
2.60
Texas total 94.5 · main lineActual: Texas over 94.5
Over 94.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 94.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.86
Texas total 98.5Actual: Texas over 98.5
Over 98.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
Under 98.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.52
1xBet
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.42
Chicago State total 50.5Actual: Chicago State over 50.5
Over 50.5
no forecast
@ 1.35
Under 50.5
no forecast
@ 2.75
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Under
Betano
2.75
Chicago State total 54.5 · main lineActual: Chicago State over 54.5
Over 54.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under 54.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.90
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Chicago State total 58.5Actual: Chicago State over 58.5
Over 58.5
74.4%
@ 2.62+39.9pp
Under 58.5
25.6%
@ 1.38-39.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.62
Under
Betano
1.38

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Texas -44.5Actual: Texas -44.5
TEXA -44.5
no forecast
@ 2.65
CHIC +44.5
no forecast
@ 1.54
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Betano
2.65
Bet365
2.35
CHIC
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.42
Spread Texas -41.5 · main lineActual: Texas -41.5
TEXA -41.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
CHIC +41.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
CHIC
Betano
1.90
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.74
1xBet
1.72
Marathon Be
1.71
Spread Texas -38.5Actual: Texas -38.5
TEXA -38.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
CHIC +38.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Marathon Be
1.71
Bet365
1.68
CHIC
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.00

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -2.9-2.91st half: -1.3-1.32nd half2nd half: -0.5-0.52nd half: -1.4-1.4
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -2.9-2.91st half: -1.3-1.32nd half2nd half: -0.5-0.52nd half: -1.4-1.4
TexasChicago State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
TexasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia
#68
L
35-45
35
45
-10
A21/02
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H26/02
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
L
29-30
29
30
-1
A28/02
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
34-56
34
56
-22
A05/03
NCAA
Oklahoma
#154
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H08/03
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
30-41
30
41
-11
H11/03
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
30-29
30
29
+1
A18/03
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A19/03
NCAA
Gonzaga
#9
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A21/03
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A26/03
NCAA
73.5Avg total
35.3Scored
38.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71.5
Last 30 (30)37.636.974.5+0.757%63%
Last 30 at home (15)38.335.173.4+3.167%60%
Last 30 away (15)36.938.675.5-1.747%67%
Last 10 (10)35.338.273.5-2.950%60%
Last 5 (5)35.235.871.0-0.660%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)37.037.674.6-0.660%80%
vs Similar (17)36.438.074.4-1.647%65%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)40.534.074.5+6.575%50%
This opponent (Chicago State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Chicago StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Central Connecticut State
#114
L
28-35
28
35
-7
A06/02
NCAA
New Haven Chargers
#250
W
32-22
32
22
+10
A07/02
NCAA
St. Francis (PA)
#359
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H09/02
NCAA
Stonehill
#283
W
38-19
38
19
+19
H13/02
NCAA
Le Moyne
#240
L
29-42
29
42
-13
A14/02
NCAA
Fairleigh Dickinson
#315
L
26-28
26
28
-2
H20/02
NCAA
Central Connecticut State
#114
W
28-25
28
25
+3
H21/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
31-32
31
32
-1
A27/02
NCAA
Wagner
#249
L
24-42
24
42
-18
A28/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A05/03
NCAA
62.3Avg total
30.5Scored
31.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71.5
Last 30 (30)30.235.565.6-5.333%27%
Last 30 at home (11)33.630.564.2+3.164%18%
Last 30 away (19)28.238.366.5-10.216%32%
Last 10 (10)30.531.862.3-1.340%10%
Last 5 (5)28.433.461.8-5.020%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)29.035.564.5-6.427%23%
vs Similar (3)34.336.070.3-1.767%33%
vs Weaker (1)47.034.081.0+13.0100%100%
This opponent (Texas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Texas -20.5 · main lineActual: Texas -20.5
TEXA -20.5
no forecast
@ 1.86
CHIC +20.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
1st half Over/Under 71.5 · main lineActual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Texas 1st half total 46 · main lineActual: Texas over 46
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Chicago State 1st half total 23.5 · main lineActual: Chicago State over 23.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Spread Texas -21.5Actual: Texas -21.5
TEXA -21.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
CHIC +21.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Spread Texas -19.5Actual: Texas -19.5
TEXA -19.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
CHIC +19.5
no forecast
@ 2.65
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Over 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.15
Under
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Texas -22.5Actual: Texas -22.5
TEXA -22.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
CHIC +22.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
1st half Over/Under 67.5Actual: Over 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under
no forecast
@ 2.60
1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Over 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.70
Under
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Texas -23.5Actual: Texas -23.5
TEXA -23.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
CHIC +23.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Spread Texas -17.5Actual: Texas -17.5
TEXA -17.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
CHIC +17.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Spread Texas -24.5Actual: Texas -24.5
TEXA -24.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
CHIC +24.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Texas -16.5Actual: Texas -16.5
TEXA -16.5
no forecast
@ 1.25
CHIC +16.5
no forecast
@ 3.50
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Texas (regulation)
TEXA
no forecast
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
CHIC
no forecast
@ 13.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
TEXA win + total 149.5
🔒 Pro
CHIC win + total 149.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: TEXA leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: CHIC leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: blowout (21+ points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Chicago State over 57.577.5%2.53
1xBet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.35		--+42.0ppWon
Chicago State over 59.571.0%3.13
Bet365
3.35
Betano
2.92		---+41.7ppLost
Texas under 90.575.3%2.66
Bet365
2.72
Betano
2.60		---+40.9ppLost
Texas under 89.572.0%2.92
1xBet
3.00
Betano
2.85		---+40.8ppLost
Texas under 91.578.4%2.37
Betano
2.37		----+40.1ppLost
Chicago State over 58.574.4%2.62
Betano
2.62		----+39.9ppWon
Chicago State over 56.580.4%2.12
Betano
2.12		----+37.9ppWon
Chicago State over 55.583.1%2.00
Betano
2.00		----+36.8ppWon
Chicago State over 5585.1%1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85		---+35.4ppWon
Under 174.594.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+1.5ppWon
Over 124.593.5%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.7ppWon
Under 169.589.9%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+0.3ppWon
Under 157.570.5%1.30
Bet365
1.30		-----0.9ppLost
Over 129.588.5%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----1.2ppWon
Under 159.574.6%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----1.5ppLost
Under 164.583.4%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----2.1ppLost
Over 134.581.3%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----4.3ppWon
Over 139.571.8%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----4.4ppWon
Texas over 74.582.6%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----11.1ppWon
Texas over 75.579.8%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----13.0ppWon
Texas over 76.576.9%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----14.6ppWon
Texas over 77.573.7%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----17.5ppWon
Texas over 78.570.3%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----20.2ppWon
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Texas wins
0
Chicago State wins
DateGameScore
13/11/24Texas v Chicago State105-58
Texaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/03/26APurdue77-79
21/03/26AGonzaga74-68
19/03/26ABrigham Young79-71
18/03/26ANC State68-66
11/03/26HOle Miss66-76
08/03/26HOklahoma85-88 OT
05/03/26AArkansas85-105
28/02/26ATexas A&M76-70
26/02/26HFlorida71-84
21/02/26AGeorgia80-91
Chicago Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/26ALIU Sharks75-79
28/02/26AWagner61-80
27/02/26ALIU Sharks56-73
21/02/26HCentral Connecticut State70-51
20/02/26HFairleigh Dickinson59-60
14/02/26ALe Moyne63-81
13/02/26HStonehill68-55
09/02/26HSt. Francis (PA)80-75
07/02/26ANew Haven Chargers63-57
06/02/26ACentral Connecticut State67-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Texas
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 150---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Chicago State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 150---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Vanderbilt110100%93.047.0+46.0
2 Ole Miss110100%99.058.0+41.0
3 Mississippi St.110100%106.088.0+18.0
4 Georgia110100%78.062.0+16.0
5 Florida110100%77.067.0+10.0
6 Oklahoma1010%64.068.0-4.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Northeast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Stonehill110100%84.056.0+28.0
2 Central Connecticut State1010%56.068.0-12.0
3 LIU Sharks1010%60.074.0-14.0
4 New Haven Chargers1010%58.074.0-16.0
5 Mercyhurst Lakers1010%43.078.0-35.0
6 Le Moyne1010%64.0106.0-42.0
7 St. Francis (ILL)1010%47.096.0-49.0
8 Fairleigh Dickinson1010%45.0120.0-75.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Texas5653109
Chicago State302959
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.