On 10 November 2026 the NCAA contest pits Troy against Loyola Marymount, with the Pythia model favouring Troy at 82% over Loyola Marymount's 18% due to Troy's high projected 78 points versus Loyola Marymount's 68 and the model's confidence that Troy will cover the 1.5-point line with an 83% probability. Troy's season record stands at 0-2, scoring 64.0 points per game while allowing 81.0, and they are 353rd in the league; their sole home game yielded 60.0 points and 71.0 allowed, a 0-1 record. Their last five games were 2-3, including a 68-91 loss to Florida State away, a 60-71 defeat at home to UMass, and a 47-76 loss to Nebraska away. Loyola Marymount is 1-1, averaging 98.5 points and conceding 73.0, positioned 179th; they are 2-3 over the last five, with a 102-50 win over Lincoln University (CA) at home and a narrow 95-96 loss to Queens Royals at home. In the sole prior meeting Loyola Marymount won 74-63 on 14 November 2025, and the projected total of 146.5 points falls just below the 147.5-point over line, giving a 47% chance of the over. The game is expected to finish 78-68 in favour of Troy, with a 3% chance of overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 64.0 | 81.0 | 145.0 | -17.0 | 0% |
| Season at home (1) | 60.0 | 71.0 | 131.0 | -11.0 | 0% |
| Season away (1) | 68.0 | 91.0 | 159.0 | -23.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 68.4 | 70.3 | 138.7 | -1.9 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 66.0 | 73.8 | 139.8 | -7.8 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (3) | 62.0 | 72.0 | 134.0 | -10.0 | 33% |
| vs Similar (11) | 71.3 | 73.5 | 144.7 | -2.2 | 45% |
| vs Weaker (16) | 81.9 | 71.1 | 152.9 | +10.8 | 75% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 98.5 | 73.0 | 171.5 | +25.5 | 50% |
| Season at home (2) | 98.5 | 73.0 | 171.5 | +25.5 | 50% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 78.4 | 70.7 | 149.1 | +7.7 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 78.4 | 69.8 | 148.2 | +8.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 67.0 | 91.6 | 158.6 | -24.6 | 0% |
| vs Similar (14) | 70.5 | 70.4 | 140.9 | +0.1 | 50% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (11) | 79.9 | 69.3 | 149.2 | +10.6 | 45% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 70.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.4 | 31.8 | 66.2 | +2.6 | 50% | 27% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 36.2 | 28.9 | 65.1 | +7.3 | 81% | 19% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 32.4 | 35.1 | 67.6 | -2.7 | 14% | 36% |
| Last 10 (10) | 30.9 | 31.7 | 62.6 | -0.8 | 40% | 10% |
| Last 5 (5) | 31.6 | 33.8 | 65.4 | -2.2 | 40% | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (3) | 29.3 | 36.0 | 65.3 | -6.7 | 33% | 0% |
| vs Similar (11) | 33.0 | 34.5 | 67.5 | -1.5 | 45% | 36% |
| vs Weaker (16) | 36.4 | 29.2 | 65.6 | +7.2 | 56% | 25% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 70.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.6 | 34.9 | 68.5 | -1.4 | 40% | 40% |
| Last 30 at home (19) | 34.1 | 34.2 | 68.3 | -0.2 | 37% | 42% |
| Last 30 away (11) | 32.7 | 36.2 | 68.9 | -3.5 | 45% | 36% |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.3 | 34.2 | 73.5 | +5.1 | 80% | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.8 | 35.8 | 74.6 | +3.0 | 60% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 27.4 | 39.0 | 66.4 | -11.6 | 0% | 40% |
| vs Similar (14) | 30.1 | 34.2 | 64.3 | -4.1 | 29% | 29% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (11) | 40.8 | 34.0 | 74.8 | +6.8 | 73% | 55% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy -4 | 72.8% | 2.50 | 2.50 | - | - | - | - | +35.8pp | Won |
| Troy -3 | 75.7% | 2.30 | 2.30 | - | - | - | - | +35.6pp | Won |
| Troy (regulation) | 79.5% | 2.04 | 2.05 | 2.03 | - | - | - | +35.4pp | Lost |
| Troy -2 | 78.9% | 2.10 | 2.10 | - | - | - | - | +35.4pp | Won |
| Troy -1 | 81.2% | 2.00 | 2.00 | - | - | - | - | +35.1pp | Won |
| Troy -4.5 | 70.4% | 2.59 | 2.62 | 2.57 | - | - | - | +34.9pp | Won |
| Troy -1.5 | 79.6% | 2.08 | 2.12 | 2.05 | - | - | - | +34.9pp | Won |
| Troy -3.5 | 73.7% | 2.38 | 2.40 | 2.35 | - | - | - | +34.8pp | Won |
| Troy -2.5 | 76.3% | 2.20 | 2.22 | 2.17 | - | - | - | +34.6pp | Won |
| Troy +1 | 83.0% | 1.89 | 1.90 | 1.88 | - | - | - | +33.8pp | Won |
| Troy win | 81.6% | 1.96 | 2.06 | 2.00 | 1.98 | 1.95 | 1.93 | +33.7pp | Won |
| Troy +1.5 | 83.3% | 1.82 | 1.89 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.78 | 1.73 | +32.3pp | Won |
| Troy +2 | 85.3% | 1.75 | 1.76 | 1.74 | - | - | - | +32.0pp | Won |
| Troy +2.5 | 85.7% | 1.71 | 1.72 | 1.71 | 1.71 | - | - | +30.8pp | Won |
| Troy +3 | 87.1% | 1.66 | 1.66 | - | - | - | - | +30.7pp | Won |
| Troy +3.5 | 87.3% | 1.61 | 1.62 | 1.60 | - | - | - | +29.7pp | Won |
| Troy +4 | 88.9% | 1.57 | 1.57 | - | - | - | - | +29.4pp | Won |
| Troy +4.5 | 89.0% | 1.52 | 1.54 | 1.50 | - | - | - | +28.0pp | Won |
| Troy +5 | 90.4% | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | - | +27.5pp | Won |
| Troy +5.5 | 90.6% | 1.46 | 1.47 | 1.44 | - | - | - | +26.6pp | Won |
| Troy +6 | 91.8% | 1.41 | 1.41 | - | - | - | - | +25.7pp | Won |
| Loyola Marymount under 75 | 75.9% | 1.84 | 1.85 | 1.83 | - | - | - | +25.7pp | Won |
| Troy +6.5 | 91.9% | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.37 | - | - | - | +24.9pp | Won |
| Troy +7 | 93.0% | 1.36 | 1.36 | - | - | - | - | +24.5pp | Won |
| Loyola Marymount under 74.5 | 73.7% | 1.83 | 1.87 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.80 | 1.80 | +23.7pp | Won |
| Troy +7.5 | 93.1% | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.31 | - | - | - | +23.0pp | Won |
| Loyola Marymount under 74 | 72.8% | 1.85 | 1.85 | - | - | - | - | +22.8pp | Won |
| Troy +8 | 94.0% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +22.8pp | Won |
| Loyola Marymount under 73.5 | 70.4% | 1.89 | 1.95 | 1.83 | - | - | - | +21.8pp | Won |
| Troy +8.5 | 94.1% | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.27 | - | - | - | +21.6pp | Won |
| Loyola Marymount under 75.5 | 76.7% | 1.67 | 1.67 | - | - | - | - | +21.3pp | Won |
| Troy +9 | 94.9% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +21.3pp | Won |
| Loyola Marymount under 76.5 | 79.5% | 1.55 | 1.55 | - | - | - | - | +21.0pp | Won |
| Troy over 73 | 71.2% | 1.84 | 1.85 | 1.83 | - | - | - | +20.9pp | Won |
| Troy over 72.5 | 72.2% | 1.77 | 1.83 | 1.72 | - | - | - | +20.3pp | Won |
| Troy +9.5 | 95.0% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +20.2pp | Won |
| Loyola Marymount under 77.5 | 82.0% | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | - | +19.7pp | Won |
| Loyola Marymount under 78.5 | 84.4% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +18.9pp | Won |
| Troy over 71.5 | 75.4% | 1.57 | 1.57 | - | - | - | - | +18.0pp | Won |
| Loyola Marymount under 79.5 | 86.5% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +17.6pp | Won |
| Troy over 70.5 | 78.5% | 1.47 | 1.47 | - | - | - | - | +16.9pp | Won |
| Troy over 69.5 | 81.2% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +16.7pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 96.5% | 1.04 | 1.06 | 1.03 | - | - | - | +6.9pp | - |
| Under 170.5 | 92.7% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +1.1pp | Won |
| Over 125.5 | 90.0% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +0.4pp | Won |
| Under 155.5 | 71.3% | 1.30 | 1.37 | 1.23 | - | - | - | -0.0pp | Won |
| Over 137.5 | 70.6% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | -1.3pp | Won |
| Under 165.5 | 87.7% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -1.3pp | Won |
| Over 135.5 | 74.7% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | -1.5pp | Won |
| Over 130.5 | 83.5% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | -2.0pp | Won |
| Under 160.5 | 80.6% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | -3.3pp | Won |
| Loyola Marymount over 57.5 | 85.1% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -7.1pp | Won |
| Loyola Marymount over 59.5 | 80.0% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -10.8pp | Won |
| Loyola Marymount over 61.5 | 74.0% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -15.0pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 15/11/25 | Loyola Marymount v Troy | 74-63 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/26 | A | Florida State | 68-91 |
| 03/11/26 | H | UMass | 60-71 |
| 19/03/26 | A | Nebraska | 47-76 |
| 09/03/26 | H | Georgia Southern | 77-61 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Southern Miss | 78-70 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Louisiana Monroe | 80-65 |
| 25/02/26 | H | Louisiana Lafayette | 78-59 |
| 21/02/26 | A | South Alabama | 54-65 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Louisiana Monroe | 77-76 |
| 15/02/26 | A | Southern Miss | 65-69 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/26 | H | Lincoln University (CA) | 102-50 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Queens Royals | 95-96 |
| 06/03/26 | H | San Diego Toreros | 62-66 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Seattle | 66-71 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Washington State | 67-66 |
| 21/02/26 | A | San Diego Toreros | 77-65 |
| 14/02/26 | A | Pepperdine | 89-90 |
| 12/02/26 | A | Pacific | 59-65 |
| 08/02/26 | H | San Diego Toreros | 83-63 |
| 05/02/26 | A | San Francisco | 84-75 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LL | 0% |
| Home | L | 0% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Win % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Points / game | 64.0 | 60.0 | 68.0 |
| Allowed / game | 81.0 | 71.0 | 91.0 |
| Point differential | -17.0 | -11.0 | -23.0 |
| Avg total | 145.0 | 131.0 | 159.0 |
| Over 147.5 | 50% | 0% | 100% |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LW | 50% |
| Home | LW | 50% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 | - |
| Win % | 50% | 50% | - |
| Points / game | 98.5 | 98.5 | - |
| Allowed / game | 73.0 | 73.0 | - |
| Point differential | +25.5 | +25.5 | - |
| Avg total | 171.5 | 171.5 | - |
| Over 147.5 | 100% | 100% | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 50% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | 0% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 101.0 | 60.5 | +40.5 | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.0 | 52.7 | +25.3 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 69.5 | 59.0 | +10.5 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 75.0 | 75.0 | +0.0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 80.0 | 83.0 | -3.0 | |
| 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 78.5 | 85.5 | -7.0 | |
| 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.7 | 71.3 | +12.3 | |
| 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 70.0 | 60.3 | +9.7 | |
| 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 80.7 | 76.7 | +4.0 | |
| 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 81.3 | 82.0 | -0.7 | |
| 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 59.0 | 60.3 | -1.3 | |
| 12 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 62.3 | 80.0 | -17.7 | |
| 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 78.5 | 87.5 | -9.0 | |
| 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 64.0 | 81.0 | -17.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 82.5 | 49.5 | +33.0 | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 97.3 | 71.0 | +26.3 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 73.0 | +16.0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 87.5 | 76.0 | +11.5 | |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 77.5 | 66.0 | +11.5 | |
| 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 102.3 | 65.0 | +37.3 | |
| 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 96.7 | 81.7 | +15.0 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 98.5 | 73.0 | +25.5 | |
| 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 90.5 | 73.0 | +17.5 | |
| 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 76.0 | 67.0 | +9.0 | |
| 11 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 86.8 | 93.5 | -6.8 | |
| 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 66.0 | 79.5 | -13.5 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 36 | 9 | 74 | |
| 37 | 28 | 4 | 69 |
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