UAB hosts Florida A&M in the NCAA on 9 November 2026, and the Pythia model names UAB the favourite, rating them 89% to win largely because of their 1-1 season record, 74.0 points per game and 81.0 allowed, while Florida A&M also sits at 1-1 but averages 91.0 points and allows 72.0, a higher scoring output that the model views as less reliable against UAB's defence. UAB's single home win came 70-63 over Nicholls State, and they have a 3-2 record over the last five games, with a recent loss to Charlotte 78-83 at home; Florida A&M's road success is a 1-0 record with a 112-69 win over Florida State, and they also have a 3-2 record in their last five, with a recent loss to Southern Univ. 70-73 at home. Their head-to-head history is not listed. Pythia projects an 84-70 score, 153.9 total points, and gives UAB an 89% chance to win, 11% to lose, with a -16.5 spread that the model sees a 40% chance of covering, and a 154.5 total that the over is 48% likely, while the game has a 2% chance of overtime. The contest will hinge on UAB's ability to contain Florida A&M's high-scoring offence.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UAB winWon
88.7%fair 1.13
Best odds1.04
Implied92.7%
Edge-4.1pp
Florida A&M winLost
11.3%fair 8.82
Best odds17.00
Implied7.3%
Edge+4.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (UAB) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 151Actual: Over 151
Over 151
56.8%
@ 1.55-2.9pp
Under 151
43.2%
@ 2.30+2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.55
Under
Bet365
2.30
Over/Under 156 · main linePush
Over 156
44.3%
@ 2.05-6.3pp
Under 156
55.7%
@ 1.92+6.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Be
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.81
Bet365
1.71
Over/Under 161Actual: Under 161
Over 161
32.4%
@ 2.80-0.7pp
Under 161
67.6%
@ 1.38+0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.80
Under
Bet365
1.38
📊 3. Team Totals
UAB total 81.5Actual: UAB over 81.5
Over 81.5
59.5%
@ 1.40-5.1pp
Under 81.5
40.5%
@ 2.55+5.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.55
UAB total 85.5 · main lineActual: UAB over 85.5
Over 85.5
43.5%
@ 1.86-6.5pp
Under 85.5
56.5%
@ 1.91+6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.83
UAB total 89.5Actual: UAB over 89.5
Over 89.5
28.4%
@ 2.60-6.4pp
Under 89.5
71.6%
@ 1.39+6.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
Under
Betano
1.39
Florida A&M total 65Actual: Florida A&M under 65
Over 65
69.3%
Under 65
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Florida A&M total 69 · main lineActual: Florida A&M under 69
Over 69
53.5%
@ 1.88+4.0pp
Under 69
46.5%
@ 1.85-4.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Florida A&M total 73Actual: Florida A&M under 73
Over 73
37.4%
Under 73
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread UAB -19Actual: UAB -19
UAB -19
31.6%
@ 2.25-16.6pp
FLOR +19
68.4%
@ 1.84+16.6pp
Best 5 market prices
UAB
Bet365
2.25
Pinnacle
1.98
Marathon Be
1.87
FLOR
Marathon Be
1.84
Pinnacle
1.84
Bet365
1.57
Spread UAB -16 · main lineActual: UAB -16
UAB -16
41.9%
@ 1.86-9.9pp
FLOR +16
58.1%
@ 2.00+9.9pp
Best 5 market prices
UAB
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.73
FLOR
Marathon Be
2.00
Bet365
1.86
Spread UAB -13Actual: UAB -13
UAB -13
53.0%
@ 1.52-8.2pp
FLOR +13
47.0%
@ 2.40+8.2pp
Best 5 market prices
UAB
Bet365
1.52
FLOR
Bet365
2.40
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
UABFlorida A&M
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Florida A&M) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Florida A&MLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Alcorn State
#348
L
47-49
47
49
-2
A17/02
NCAA
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
#172
L
30-32
30
32
-2
H20/02
NCAA
Alabama State
#330
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H21/02
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
W
50-38
50
38
+12
A27/02
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
L
36-42
36
42
-6
A28/02
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#185
W
47-46
47
46
+1
H06/03
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
W
37-26
37
26
+11
H12/03
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
W
33-30
33
30
+3
H14/03
NCAA
Florida State
#295
W
58-42
58
42
+16
A03/11
NCAA
Fort Valley State Wildcats
#111
L
36-47
36
47
-11
H06/11
NCAA
79.4Avg total
41.0Scored
38.4Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 80.5
Last 30 (30)
36.9
39.5
76.5
-2.6
37%
43%
Last 30 at home (14)
35.1
36.6
71.7
-1.4
50%
29%
Last 30 away (16)
38.5
42.1
80.6
-3.6
25%
56%
Last 10 (10)
41.0
38.4
79.4
+2.6
60%
50%
Last 5 (5)
42.2
38.2
80.4
+4.0
80%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)
36.1
41.1
77.2
-5.1
29%
43%
vs Similar (7)
38.9
40.1
79.0
-1.3
57%
57%
vs Weaker (7)
38.1
36.1
74.3
+2.0
43%
29%
This opponent (UAB) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: UAB win
UAB win
no forecast
@ 1.19
FLOR win
no forecast
@ 4.75
2nd half Spread UAB -6.5 · main lineActual: UAB -6.5
UAB -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
FLOR +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Over/Under 80.5 · main lineActual: Over 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
UAB 2nd half total 44.5 · main lineActual: UAB over 44.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Florida A&M 2nd half total 36.5 · main lineActual: Florida A&M over 36.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Spread UAB -7.5Actual: UAB -7.5
UAB -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
FLOR +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
2nd half Spread UAB -8.5Actual: Florida A&M +8.5
UAB -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
FLOR +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: UAB (regulation)
UAB
no forecast
@ 1.22
Draw
no forecast
@ 22.00
FLOR
no forecast
@ 4.70
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Florida A&M +20
71.6%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Lost
Florida A&M +20.5
72.4%
1.51
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44
-
-
+14.6pp
Lost
Florida A&M +21
74.5%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Lost
Florida A&M +21.5
75.2%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Lost
Florida A&M +22.5
77.9%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Lost
Florida A&M +22
77.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Lost
Florida A&M +23.5
80.4%
1.27
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Lost
Florida A&M +23
79.9%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Lost
UAB under 89.5
71.6%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Lost
UAB under 94.5
85.8%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
UAB under 90.5
74.9%
1.33
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Lost
UAB under 92.5
80.9%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
UAB under 102.5
96.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
UAB under 95.5
88.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
UAB under 100.5
95.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
UAB under 98.5
93.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
UAB under 96.5
89.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Florida A&M over 53.5
94.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Under 181.5
95.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Florida A&M over 55.5
92.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Florida A&M over 52.5
95.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Florida A&M over 54.5
93.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Florida A&M over 51.5
96.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Florida A&M over 59.5
85.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Under 166.5
78.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Florida A&M over 61.5
79.8%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Florida A&M over 57.5
89.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Under 176.5
91.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Florida A&M over 56.5
90.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Florida A&M over 64.5
70.4%
1.34
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Lost
Under 179.5
94.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Under 162.5
70.5%
1.34
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
UAB +3.5
92.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Florida A&M over 60.5
82.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Florida A&M over 58.5
87.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Florida A&M over 62.5
76.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Under 171.5
86.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Over 129.5
93.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Under 174.5
89.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
UAB (regulation)
87.1%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Marathon Bet
1.02
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
UAB over 72.5
87.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Over 131.5
91.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Under 164.5
74.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Over 134.5
88.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Under 169.5
83.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
UAB over 75.5
80.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
UAB -1.5
87.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
UAB over 74.5
82.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Florida A&M under 80.5
84.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Florida A&M under 78.5
80.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
UAB over 76.5
77.2%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Florida A&M under 79.5
82.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Over 136.5
85.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
Florida A&M under 76.5
74.3%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Over 144.5
71.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Over 139.5
81.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
UAB win
88.7%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Marathon Bet
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-4.1pp
Won
UAB -6.5
74.7%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Won
UAB -8
70.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
UAB -7.5
71.6%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
Over 141.5
77.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
UAB over 78.5
70.6%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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