On 7 November 2026 the UALR Bulldogs will host the SE Louisiana Ragin Cajuns in an NCAA contest, with the model designating UALR as the clear favourite, assigning it an 86% chance of victory and a projected score of 78-65, while SE Louisiana is given a 14% win probability. UALR's single game this season has yielded a 0-1 record, 72.0 points per game and 82.0 points allowed per game, placing them 294th in the league; their last five games include one win and four losses, with a recent 89-70 home victory over Southern Indiana and two away defeats to VCU Rams 72-82 and Lindenwood 62-72. SE Louisiana also stands 0-1, 59.0 points per game and 92.0 points allowed per game, 384th in the league, with one win and four losses in their last five, a recent 82-78 away win over New Orleans and losses to Auburn 59-92 and Nicholls State 60-68. The two teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. The Bulldogs' spread line is -5.5, with a 74% probability of covering, while the total line of 147.5 carries a 39% over probability, and the game carries a 3% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UALR winLost
86.1%fair 1.16
Best odds1.38
Implied80.1%
Edge+6.0pp
SE Louisiana winWon
13.9%fair 7.20
Best odds5.00
Implied19.9%
Edge-6.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (UALR) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 141.5Actual: Over 141.5
Over 141.5
53.1%
@ 1.47-11.4pp
Under 141.5
46.9%
@ 2.75+11.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.47
Over/Under 146.5 · main lineActual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
40.9%
@ 1.90-8.8pp
Under 146.5
59.1%
@ 2.00+8.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
29.6%
@ 2.40-9.0pp
Under 151.5
70.4%
@ 1.52+9.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.40
Under
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
UALR total 74Actual: UALR over 74
Over 74
65.0%
Under 74
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UALR total 78 · main lineActual: UALR over 78
Over 78
48.6%
@ 1.85-1.4pp
Under 78
51.4%
@ 1.85+1.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
UALR total 82Actual: UALR under 82
Over 82
32.4%
Under 82
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SE Louisiana total 67Actual: SE Louisiana over 67
Over 67
42.4%
Under 67
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SE Louisiana total 71 · main lineActual: SE Louisiana over 71
Over 71
27.5%
@ 1.85-22.5pp
Under 71
72.5%
@ 1.87+22.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
SE Louisiana total 75Actual: SE Louisiana over 75
Over 75
16.1%
Under 75
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread UALR -8.5Actual: SE Louisiana +8.5
UALR -8.5
63.7%
@ 2.30+7.6pp
SE L +8.5
36.3%
@ 2.17-7.6pp
Best 5 market prices
UALR
Bet365
2.30
BetVictor
1.75
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathon Be
1.69
Betano
1.65
SE L
Pinnacle
2.17
Betano
2.10
Marathon Be
1.95
BetVictor
1.88
Bet365
1.55
Spread UALR -5.5 · main lineActual: SE Louisiana +5.5
UALR -5.5
73.6%
@ 1.91+23.4pp
SE L +5.5
26.4%
@ 2.65-23.4pp
Best 5 market prices
UALR
Marathon Be
1.91
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
BetVictor
1.80
1xBet
1.73
SE L
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
BetVictor
1.83
Spread UALR -2.5Actual: SE Louisiana +2.5
UALR -2.5
81.7%
@ 1.54+15.9pp
SE L +2.5
18.3%
@ 3.20-15.9pp
Best 5 market prices
UALR
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.29
SE L
Betano
3.20
Bet365
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
UALRSE Louisiana
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (SE Louisiana) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SE LouisianaLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lamar
#286
L
28-42
28
42
-14
A03/02
NCAA
Houston Christian
#297
L
20-26
20
26
-6
H07/02
NCAA
Incarnate Word
#287
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H10/02
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#331
L
31-37
31
37
-6
A14/02
NCAA
East Texas A&M
#316
L
33-35
33
35
-2
A16/02
NCAA
UTRGV
#137
L
49-50
49
50
-1
H21/02
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H24/02
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
L
29-35
29
35
-6
A28/02
NCAA
New Orleans
#226
L
42-46
42
46
-4
A03/03
NCAA
Auburn
#35
L
34-50
34
50
-16
A05/11
NCAA
72.6Avg total
33.6Scored
39.0Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 77.5
Last 30 (30)
34.2
36.9
71.1
-2.7
27%
27%
Last 30 at home (12)
35.4
36.5
71.9
-1.1
33%
33%
Last 30 away (18)
33.4
37.2
70.6
-3.8
22%
22%
Last 10 (10)
33.6
39.0
72.6
-5.4
10%
30%
Last 5 (5)
38.0
42.8
80.8
-4.8
20%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)
33.5
36.7
70.3
-3.2
27%
20%
vs Similar (12)
33.6
36.9
70.5
-3.3
17%
25%
vs Weaker (2)
43.0
32.0
75.0
+11.0
100%
50%
This opponent (UALR) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: UALR win
UALR win
no forecast
@ 1.40
SE L win
no forecast
@ 3.00
2nd half Spread UALR -2.5 · main lineActual: UALR -2.5
UALR -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
SE L +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half Over/Under 77.5 · main lineActual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
UALR 2nd half total 40.5 · main lineActual: UALR under 40.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
SE Louisiana 2nd half total 36.5 · main lineActual: SE Louisiana over 36.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half Spread UALR -3.5Actual: SE Louisiana +3.5
UALR -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
SE L +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
2nd half Spread UALR -4.5Actual: SE Louisiana +4.5
UALR -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
SE L +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: SE Louisiana (regulation)
UALR
no forecast
@ 1.44
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.50
SE L
no forecast
@ 3.00
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
UALR -6
72.7%
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.97
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.91
-
-
+24.7pp
Lost
UALR -5
75.9%
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
-
-
+24.4pp
Lost
UALR -5.5
73.6%
1.77
Marathon Bet
1.91
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
BetVictor
1.80
1xBet
1.73
+23.4pp
Lost
UALR -6.5
70.4%
1.81
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Betano
1.47
-
-
+23.2pp
Lost
UALR -4
78.8%
1.66
Bet365
1.66
-
-
-
-
+23.0pp
Lost
UALR -4.5
76.6%
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.78
1xBet
1.75
Bet365
1.71
Betano
1.35
-
+22.7pp
Lost
SE Louisiana under 71
72.5%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
+22.5pp
Lost
UALR -3.5
79.4%
1.53
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.30
-
-
+22.4pp
Lost
UALR -3
81.3%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+22.4pp
Lost
SE Louisiana under 71.5
73.4%
1.68
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.45
-
-
+21.9pp
Lost
UALR -2
84.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Lost
UALR -1
85.9%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Lost
UALR +1
87.3%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Lost
SE Louisiana under 75.5
84.3%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Lost
UALR +1.5
87.5%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Lost
UALR +2.5
89.4%
1.29
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Lost
SE Louisiana under 76.5
86.4%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+17.4pp
Lost
UALR +2
89.2%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Lost
UALR -1.5
84.5%
1.37
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Lost
UALR -2.5
81.7%
1.42
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Lost
SE Louisiana under 70.5
70.1%
1.69
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+15.6pp
Lost
SE Louisiana under 74.5
81.9%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Lost
SE Louisiana under 72.5
76.4%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Lost
UALR (regulation)
84.3%
1.30
1xBet
1.49
Marathon Bet
1.21
Betano
1.21
-
-
+10.5pp
Lost
SE Louisiana under 73.5
79.3%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+10.3pp
Lost
Under 153
73.9%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Lost
Under 152
71.9%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Lost
Under 151.5
70.4%
1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Lost
Under 154
75.9%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Lost
Under 152.5
72.5%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Lost
Under 153.5
74.5%
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Lost
Under 154.5
76.4%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Lost
Under 155
77.8%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Lost
Under 155.5
78.2%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Lost
Under 157.5
81.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Lost
UALR win
86.1%
1.21
SBO
1.38
Marathon Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.19
+6.0pp
Lost
Overtime: no
97.1%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.03
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+5.4pp
-
UALR under 83.5
72.3%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Under 172.5
96.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Under 162.5
88.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Under 167.5
93.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Over 122.5
89.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Won
SE Louisiana over 54.5
85.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Over 127.5
82.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.9pp
Won
SE Louisiana over 56.5
80.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.2pp
Won
Over 132.5
73.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-11.9pp
Won
SE Louisiana over 58.5
74.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-14.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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