UC Davis faces North Alabama in an NCAA contest on 2 November 2026, with the model clearly favouring the Aggies, assigning them a 79% chance to win thanks to their season performance and recent form. UC Davis has won 2 of its last 5 games, including a 79-73 victory over UC Santa Barbara at home, while North Alabama has managed only 1 win in its last 5, a 73-68 home win against Bellarmine, and suffered defeats to Florida Gulf Coast, West Georgia and UC Irvine. The projected score is 78-69, giving UC Davis a 79% probability of covering the home line of -9.5, a 48% chance to cover, and a 44% probability that the total of 148.5 will be exceeded. The model also estimates a 4% likelihood of overtime. The Aggies' recent win over UC Santa Barbara and their higher win probability set them apart, while North Alabama's struggles in the last five games suggest a tough challenge for the visitors.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 72.6 | 72.7 | 145.3 | -0.1 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 73.4 | 76.2 | 149.6 | -2.8 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 71.5 | 75.8 | 147.2 | -4.2 | 25% |
| vs Similar (13) | 78.2 | 80.4 | 158.6 | -2.2 | 46% |
| vs Weaker (12) | 76.0 | 72.8 | 148.8 | +3.2 | 75% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 66.7 | 77.4 | 144.1 | -10.7 | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 64.6 | 74.0 | 138.6 | -9.4 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (25) | 67.0 | 77.7 | 144.7 | -10.8 | 24% |
| vs Similar (3) | 75.3 | 80.3 | 155.7 | -5.0 | 33% |
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 72 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.6 | 34.0 | 69.6 | +1.6 | 53% | 30% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 35.6 | 31.2 | 66.8 | +4.4 | 60% | 27% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 35.7 | 36.8 | 72.5 | -1.1 | 47% | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 32.9 | 32.3 | 65.2 | +0.6 | 50% | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 32.0 | 34.8 | 66.8 | -2.8 | 40% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 34.8 | 36.5 | 71.2 | -1.8 | 25% | 50% |
| vs Similar (13) | 36.6 | 35.5 | 72.2 | +1.1 | 54% | 38% |
| vs Weaker (12) | 34.5 | 32.8 | 67.2 | +1.8 | 58% | 17% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 72 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 32.1 | 35.3 | 67.3 | -3.2 | 37% | 37% |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 35.6 | 35.0 | 70.6 | +0.6 | 62% | 46% |
| Last 30 away (17) | 29.4 | 35.5 | 64.8 | -6.1 | 18% | 29% |
| Last 10 (10) | 31.9 | 33.3 | 65.2 | -1.4 | 50% | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 29.0 | 28.0 | 57.0 | +1.0 | 60% | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (25) | 31.1 | 35.3 | 66.4 | -4.2 | 32% | 32% |
| vs Similar (3) | 32.3 | 34.3 | 66.7 | -2.0 | 67% | 33% |
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 155.5 | 71.5% | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.47 | - | - | - | +8.6pp | Won |
| Under 156 | 73.0% | 1.44 | 1.44 | - | - | - | - | +8.5pp | Won |
| UC Davis under 84.5 | 75.3% | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | - | - | - | +8.4pp | Won |
| Under 155 | 70.9% | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | - | +8.4pp | Won |
| Under 156.5 | 73.6% | 1.41 | 1.42 | 1.40 | - | - | - | +8.2pp | Won |
| Under 157.5 | 75.5% | 1.37 | 1.38 | 1.36 | - | - | - | +8.1pp | Won |
| Under 157 | 75.0% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +8.0pp | Won |
| Under 158 | 76.9% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +7.4pp | Won |
| UC Davis under 83.5 | 72.0% | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.38 | - | - | - | +6.8pp | Won |
| Under 158.5 | 77.3% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +6.4pp | Won |
| UC Davis under 85.5 | 78.3% | 1.27 | 1.29 | 1.26 | - | - | - | +5.5pp | Won |
| North Alabama under 75.5 | 75.0% | 1.31 | 1.33 | 1.30 | - | - | - | +5.5pp | Lost |
| UC Davis under 87.5 | 83.7% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | +4.9pp | Won |
| North Alabama under 74.5 | 71.9% | 1.37 | 1.40 | 1.34 | - | - | - | +4.8pp | Lost |
| UC Davis under 88.5 | 86.1% | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | +4.6pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 96.1% | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.02 | - | - | - | +4.5pp | - |
| North Alabama under 76.5 | 77.9% | 1.26 | 1.30 | 1.22 | - | - | - | +4.3pp | Lost |
| UC Davis (regulation) | 76.4% | 1.25 | 1.28 | 1.24 | 1.23 | - | - | +4.1pp | Lost |
| UC Davis under 91.5 | 91.6% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +4.1pp | Won |
| UC Davis +11.5 | 95.6% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +4.1pp | Won |
| UC Davis under 89.5 | 88.2% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +3.8pp | Won |
| North Alabama under 79.5 | 85.3% | 1.14 | 1.17 | 1.11 | - | - | - | +3.7pp | Won |
| UC Davis +10.5 | 94.8% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +3.7pp | Won |
| Under 173.5 | 94.8% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +3.3pp | Won |
| North Alabama under 78.5 | 83.1% | 1.15 | 1.17 | 1.14 | - | - | - | +2.7pp | Lost |
| North Alabama under 84.5 | 93.4% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +2.7pp | Won |
| North Alabama +24.5 | 91.0% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +2.3pp | Won |
| North Alabama under 82.5 | 90.8% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +2.0pp | Won |
| Under 168.5 | 91.0% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +2.0pp | Won |
| North Alabama +19.5 | 82.3% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | +1.8pp | Won |
| UC Davis -1.5 | 76.5% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +1.8pp | Lost |
| UC Davis +6.5 | 90.3% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +1.6pp | Won |
| North Alabama +15.5 | 72.0% | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.31 | - | - | - | +1.6pp | Won |
| North Alabama +16.5 | 74.8% | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.26 | - | - | - | +1.5pp | Won |
| UC Davis -2.5 | 72.9% | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | +1.3pp | Lost |
| North Alabama +23.5 | 89.6% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | +1.3pp | Won |
| UC Davis over 63.5 | 92.0% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +1.3pp | Won |
| North Alabama under 80.5 | 87.3% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | +1.2pp | Won |
| UC Davis -3.5 | 70.1% | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.34 | - | - | - | +1.2pp | Lost |
| UC Davis -2 | 75.6% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +1.1pp | Lost |
| UC Davis over 62.5 | 93.4% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +1.1pp | Won |
| North Alabama +17.5 | 77.5% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +1.1pp | Won |
| North Alabama +15 | 71.1% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +1.1pp | Won |
| UC Davis +1.5 | 80.6% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | +1.0pp | Lost |
| North Alabama +16 | 74.1% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +1.0pp | Won |
| Under 163.5 | 85.2% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +0.9pp | Won |
| North Alabama +17 | 76.9% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +0.7pp | Won |
| UC Davis -3 | 72.1% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +0.7pp | Lost |
| North Alabama +18.5 | 80.0% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | +0.5pp | Won |
| UC Davis -1 | 78.2% | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | - | - | +0.4pp | Lost |
| UC Davis over 64.5 | 90.5% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +0.0pp | Won |
| UC Davis over 65.5 | 88.7% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -0.0pp | Won |
| UC Davis win | 78.7% | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.20 | -0.8pp | Lost |
| Over 123.5 | 91.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -0.9pp | Won |
| North Alabama over 55.5 | 90.1% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -1.0pp | Won |
| North Alabama over 56.5 | 88.3% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -1.1pp | Won |
| UC Davis over 67.5 | 84.5% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -1.6pp | Won |
| UC Davis over 66.5 | 86.7% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -2.0pp | Won |
| UC Davis over 69.5 | 79.3% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | -2.2pp | Won |
| North Alabama over 58.5 | 83.9% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | -2.7pp | Won |
| UC Davis over 71.5 | 73.2% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | -3.0pp | Won |
| North Alabama over 57.5 | 86.2% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -3.1pp | Won |
| North Alabama over 60.5 | 78.6% | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.13 | - | - | - | -3.2pp | Won |
| Over 128.5 | 86.1% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -3.5pp | Won |
| UC Davis over 68.5 | 82.0% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -4.1pp | Won |
| North Alabama over 59.5 | 81.4% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | -5.2pp | Won |
| North Alabama over 62.5 | 72.4% | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | - | - | -5.4pp | Won |
| UC Davis over 70.5 | 76.3% | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.12 | - | - | - | -5.9pp | Won |
| North Alabama over 61.5 | 75.6% | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.13 | - | - | - | -6.3pp | Won |
| Over 133.5 | 78.1% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | -6.9pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/26 | A | CS Fullerton | 70-82 |
| 12/03/26 | H | UC Santa Barbara | 79-73 |
| 08/03/26 | A | UC Irvine | 69-79 OT |
| 06/03/26 | A | Long Beach State | 76-70 OT |
| 27/02/26 | H | Hawaii | 73-77 |
| 21/02/26 | A | UC Riverside | 78-73 |
| 20/02/26 | A | CS Fullerton | 92-93 |
| 14/02/26 | H | Long Beach State | 71-54 |
| 13/02/26 | A | UC San Diego | 51-68 |
| 07/02/26 | H | Cal Poly | 67-58 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/26 | A | Florida Gulf Coast | 58-69 |
| 28/02/26 | A | West Georgia | 63-75 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Bellarmine | 73-68 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Lipscomb | 51-73 |
| 19/02/26 | H | Queens Royals | 78-85 |
| 15/02/26 | H | Eastern Kentucky | 84-78 OT |
| 12/02/26 | H | West Georgia | 73-82 |
| 10/02/26 | H | Central Arkansas | 65-72 |
| 07/02/26 | A | Austin Peay | 62-91 |
| 05/02/26 | A | Central Arkansas | 60-81 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 148.5 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 148.5 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UC Santa Barbara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 85.0 | 55.0 | +30.0 |
| 2 | Long Beach State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 63.0 | 66.0 | -3.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eastern Kentucky | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 105.0 | 54.0 | +51.0 |
| 2 | Austin Peay | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 109.0 | 65.0 | +44.0 |
| 3 | Central Arkansas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 85.0 | 55.0 | +30.0 |
| 4 | Queens Royals | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 103.0 | 98.0 | +5.0 |
| 5 | Florida Gulf Coast | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 95.0 | 96.0 | -1.0 |
| 6 | Lipscomb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 79.0 | 86.0 | -7.0 |
| 7 | Stetson | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 72.0 | 85.0 | -13.0 |
| 8 | West Georgia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 58.0 | 75.0 | -17.0 |
| 9 | Bellarmine | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 47.0 | 93.0 | -46.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| UC Davis | 45 | 30 | 75 |
| North Alabama | 36 | 43 | 79 |
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