UC Riverside faces Denver on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating UC Riverside as the clear favourite at 85% due to their 1-0 record, 110.0 points per game and only 47.0 points allowed, placing them 3rd in the league, while Denver sits 279th with a 0-1 record, 68.0 points per game and 75.0 allowed. UC Riverside's lone game was a 110-47 home victory, and their last five games show 2 wins and 3 losses, including a recent 110-47 win over La Verne and a 95-84 win over CS Northridge, both at home. Denver's sole outing was a 68-75 loss away to Wisconsin, and their last five games also record 2 wins and 3 losses, with recent defeats to Wisconsin, North Dakota and Oral Roberts, all on the road. The teams have met twice before, with UC Riverside winning both times, most recently 83-63 in 2020. Pythia projects a 83-71 score, 153.8 total points, and an 83% chance that UC Riverside will cover the -2.0 line; the over on 154.0 points has a 49% probability, and there is a 3% chance of overtime. The game ends with UC Riverside's decisive 83-71 win.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UC Riverside winWon
85.3%fair 1.17
Best odds1.78
Implied55.5%
Edge+29.8pp
Denver winLost
14.7%fair 6.79
Best odds2.17
Implied44.5%
Edge-29.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (UC Riverside) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 151Actual: Under 151
Over 151
56.4%
@ 1.57-2.5pp
Under 151
43.6%
@ 2.25+2.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.57
Under
Bet365
2.25
Over/Under 156 · main lineActual: Under 156
Over 156
43.9%
@ 2.05-5.4pp
Under 156
56.1%
@ 1.88+5.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.71
Over/Under 161Actual: Under 161
Over 161
32.1%
@ 2.80-0.9pp
Under 161
67.9%
@ 1.38+0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.80
Under
Bet365
1.38
📊 3. Team Totals
UC Riverside total 74Actual: UC Riverside under 74
Over 74
82.1%
Under 74
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UC Riverside total 78 · main lineActual: UC Riverside under 78
Over 78
69.4%
@ 1.86+19.4pp
Under 78
30.6%
@ 1.86-19.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
UC Riverside total 82Actual: UC Riverside under 82
Over 82
53.6%
Under 82
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denver total 72Actual: Denver under 72
Over 72
44.9%
Under 72
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denver total 76 · main lineActual: Denver under 76
Over 76
29.7%
@ 1.85-20.3pp
Under 76
70.3%
@ 1.85+20.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
Denver total 79.5Actual: Denver under 79.5
Over 79.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
Under 79.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.20
Under
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread UC Riverside -5Actual: Denver +5
UC R -5
74.6%
@ 2.40+35.8pp
DENV +5
25.4%
@ 1.52-35.8pp
Best 5 market prices
UC R
Bet365
2.40
DENV
Bet365
1.52
Spread UC Riverside -2 · main lineActual: UC Riverside -2
UC R -2
83.1%
@ 1.93+31.9pp
DENV +2
16.9%
@ 1.97-31.9pp
Best 5 market prices
UC R
Bet365
1.93
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.85
DENV
Pinnacle
1.97
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Spread UC Riverside +1Actual: UC Riverside +1
UC R +1
86.5%
@ 1.68+28.7pp
DENV -1
13.5%
@ 2.27-28.7pp
Best 5 market prices
UC R
Bet365
1.68
Pinnacle
1.66
DENV
Pinnacle
2.27
Bet365
2.08
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
UC RiversideDenver
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UC RiversideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CS Fullerton
#187
L
37-38
37
38
-1
A06/02
NCAA
CS Northridge
#132
L
36-42
36
42
-6
A07/02
NCAA
UC Santa Barbara
#146
W
35-29
35
29
+6
H13/02
NCAA
UC San Diego
#64
L
28-32
28
32
-4
A15/02
NCAA
CSU Bakersfield
#356
W
43-23
43
23
+20
H20/02
NCAA
UC Davis
#139
L
31-37
31
37
-6
H21/02
NCAA
UC Santa Barbara
#146
L
27-39
27
39
-12
A27/02
NCAA
CS Northridge
#132
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H01/03
NCAA
Hawaii
#44
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A06/03
NCAA
La Verne
#476
W
52-21
52
21
+31
H03/11
NCAA
70.6Avg total
36.7Scored
33.9Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 74.5
Last 30 (30)
35.2
36.9
72.1
-1.7
33%
40%
Last 30 at home (14)
36.9
33.8
70.7
+3.1
50%
21%
Last 30 away (16)
33.7
39.6
73.3
-5.9
19%
56%
Last 10 (10)
36.7
33.9
70.6
+2.8
40%
30%
Last 5 (5)
37.6
35.0
72.6
+2.6
40%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (21)
32.9
38.7
71.6
-5.9
19%
43%
vs Similar (5)
38.2
37.6
75.8
+0.6
40%
40%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)
41.0
28.3
69.3
+12.7
100%
33%
This opponent (Denver) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
UC Riverside -5
74.6%
2.40
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
-
+35.8pp
Lost
UC Riverside -6
71.4%
2.60
Bet365
2.60
-
-
-
-
+35.6pp
Lost
UC Riverside -4
77.7%
2.23
Pinnacle
2.25
Bet365
2.20
-
-
-
+35.1pp
Push
UC Riverside -5.5
72.3%
2.44
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.37
-
-
-
+34.2pp
Lost
UC Riverside -3.5
78.4%
2.09
Pinnacle
2.16
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.00
-
+34.0pp
Won
UC Riverside -3
80.2%
2.01
Pinnacle
2.06
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
SBO
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.97
+33.7pp
Won
UC Riverside -4.5
75.4%
2.18
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.18
1xBet
2.12
-
-
+33.1pp
Lost
UC Riverside (regulation)
83.4%
1.77
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.73
-
-
+32.5pp
Won
UC Riverside -2.5
80.7%
1.92
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
SBO
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.91
+32.0pp
Won
UC Riverside -2
83.1%
1.88
Bet365
1.93
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.85
+31.9pp
Won
UC Riverside -1.5
83.6%
1.78
Bet365
1.84
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.77
BetVictor
1.75
+29.9pp
Won
UC Riverside -1
85.0%
1.75
Bet365
1.78
Pinnacle
1.74
SBO
1.74
-
-
+29.9pp
Won
UC Riverside win
85.3%
1.71
Bet365
1.78
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
WilliamHill
1.70
+29.8pp
Won
UC Riverside +2
88.5%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
-
+29.5pp
Won
UC Riverside +1
86.5%
1.67
Bet365
1.68
Pinnacle
1.66
-
-
-
+28.7pp
Won
UC Riverside +3
89.9%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+28.2pp
Won
UC Riverside +1.5
86.7%
1.60
Bet365
1.64
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.55
-
+27.7pp
Won
UC Riverside +2.5
88.7%
1.52
Bet365
1.55
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
-
-
+27.6pp
Won
UC Riverside +3.5
90.0%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+26.1pp
Won
UC Riverside +4
91.3%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+25.9pp
Won
UC Riverside +5
92.6%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+24.7pp
Won
UC Riverside +4.5
91.4%
1.39
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+24.6pp
Won
Denver under 77
73.7%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Won
Denver under 77.5
74.5%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.84
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.78
-
-
+23.2pp
Won
UC Riverside +6
93.7%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+22.9pp
Won
UC Riverside +5.5
92.7%
1.33
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+22.9pp
Won
Denver under 76.5
71.3%
1.88
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.85
+22.8pp
Won
UC Riverside +6.5
93.8%
1.28
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Won
UC Riverside +7.5
94.7%
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
-
+21.0pp
Won
UC Riverside over 76.5
73.9%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.77
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+20.7pp
Lost
Denver under 76
70.3%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Won
UC Riverside +8.5
95.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
UC Riverside over 77.5
70.5%
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.70
+16.7pp
Lost
UC Riverside over 75.5
77.0%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Lost
UC Riverside over 74.5
79.9%
1.42
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Lost
UC Riverside over 73.5
82.6%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+14.4pp
Lost
UC Riverside +13.5
98.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
UC Riverside +18.5
99.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+9.8pp
Won
UC Riverside +23.5
99.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Overtime: no
97.0%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+7.3pp
-
Under 179.5
94.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Under 162.5
70.7%
1.36
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Under 174.5
89.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Over 129.5
93.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Lost
Under 162
70.1%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Under 169.5
83.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Under 164.5
74.8%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
UC Riverside under 97.5
92.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
UC Riverside under 96.5
91.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Over 134.5
88.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Lost
UC Riverside under 94.5
87.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Over 139.5
80.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Lost
Over 144.5
71.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Lost
Denver over 59.5
86.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
UC Riverside under 92.5
83.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Won
Denver over 61.5
82.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Lost
Denver +21.5
80.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Won
UC Riverside under 90.5
78.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-9.6pp
Won
Denver over 63.5
76.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-12.3pp
Lost
UC Riverside under 88.5
71.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-12.3pp
Won
Free daily update
Get it on Telegram
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which
predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our
Cookie Policy.
Manage Cookies
Strictly Necessary
Always Active
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the
pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the
operation of our website.
Session and security cookies, your logged-in state, your
subscription status, and the record of this cookie choice itself. These cannot be switched
off because the site cannot be delivered without them.
Functionality Cookies
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site
behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to
build a profile of you.
Your preferred tours and filters, which notices you have dismissed, your
theme choice, and display preferences you have chosen. Kept for up to two years, and you
can clear them from your browser at any time.
These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
Only" inside this panel switches them off as well.
Performance Cookies
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to
produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.