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UCLA vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Projected 96-62
Projected total 158.0
Final 106-37
51-9 55-28
Position#3
Record2-0
FormLWLWW
Points / game99.0
Allowed / game69.0
UCLA 🏆
USA
Vs
100%
■ UCLA 100%■ ARKA 0%
Pythia win probability
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
USA
Position#498
Record0-2
FormLWLLL
Points / game57.0
Allowed / game107.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

UCLA will host Arkansas-Pine Bluff on 11 November 2026 in an NCAA contest, and the Pythia model names UCLA as the clear favourite, rating them 100% to win because of their undefeated 2-0 record, 99.0 points per game and only 69.0 allowed, placing them 34th in the league, while Arkansas-Pine Bluff sits 465th with 0-2, 57.0 points per game and 107.5 allowed. UCLA's two-game season, both at home, shows a 2-0 record, 99.0 points scored and 69.0 allowed, and they have won three of their last five games, including a 114-63 victory over North Florida and an 84-75 win over Arizona, though they suffered a 57-73 loss to Uconn away. Arkansas-Pine Bluff's two-game season, both on the road, is 0-2, 57.0 points per game and 107.5 allowed, with one win in five games, and they have lost to Baylor, Arkansas and Southern Univ. in recent outings. The model projects a 96-62 score for UCLA, a total of 158.0 points, and a 56% chance that the combined score will exceed the 155.5 line, with a 100% probability that UCLA will win and a 0% chance for Arkansas-Pine Bluff. The game ends with UCLA's dominant performance and a projected 96-62 victory.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UCLA winWon
99.5%fair 1.00
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Arkansas-Pine Bluff winLost
0.5%fair 212.01
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 07:02 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UCLAUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota
#235
L
73-78
73
78
-5
A28/02
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
W
72-52
72
52
+20
H04/03
NCAA
USC
#153
W
89-68
89
68
+21
A08/03
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
W
72-59
72
59
+13
H13/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
W
88-84
88
84
+4
A14/03
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
66-73
66
73
-7
H14/03
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
W
75-71
75
71
+4
H20/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
57-73
57
73
-16
A23/03
NCAA
Arizona
#150
W
84-75
84
75
+9
H03/11
NCAA
North Florida
#312
W
114-63
114
63
+51
H07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
41-40
32-38
37-24
35-28
45-30
44-38
30-24
42-35
44-33
44-51
27-34
39-39
35-27
40-44
33-38
24-35
43-29
41-46
52-20
62-43
148.6Avg total
79.0Scored
69.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)99.069.0168.0+30.0100%
Season at home (2)99.069.0168.0+30.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)79.069.6148.6+9.470%
Last 5 (5)79.271.0150.2+8.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)70.477.0147.4-6.644%
vs Similar (6)76.080.3156.3-4.333%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)84.166.6150.7+17.593%
This opponent (Arkansas-Pine Bluff) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas-Pine BluffUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Alabama State
#330
L
61-79
61
79
-18
A14/02
NCAA
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
#172
L
70-82
70
82
-12
A17/02
NCAA
Texas Southern
#281
L
64-83
64
83
-19
H20/02
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
W
84-82
84
82
+2
H21/02
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
L
69-70
69
70
-1
H28/02
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
L
78-81
78
81
-3
A04/03
NCAA
Alcorn State
#348
W
83-48
83
48
+35
A06/03
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
L
81-84
81
84
-3
A13/03
NCAA
Arkansas
#145
L
61-106
61
106
-45
A04/11
NCAA
Baylor
#9
L
53-109
53
109
-56
A06/11
NCAA
1H
2H
33-34
28-45
31-33
39-49
36-40
28-43
45-40
39-42
39-35
30-35
36-44
42-37
37-19
46-29
37-39
44-45
28-47
33-59
13-58
40-51
152.8Avg total
70.4Scored
82.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)57.0107.5164.5-50.50%
Season at homeno games
Season away (2)57.0107.5164.5-50.50%
Last 10 (10)70.482.4152.8-12.020%
Last 5 (5)71.285.6156.8-14.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)71.092.5163.5-21.523%
vs Similar (9)74.477.1151.6-2.744%
vs Weaker (8)91.068.2159.2+22.875%
This opponent (UCLA) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Under 153.5
Over 153.5
61.1%
@ 1.67+1.5pp
Under 153.5
38.9%
@ 2.50-1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.67
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.12
Over/Under 158.5 · main lineActual: Under 158.5
Over 158.5
48.8%
@ 2.10-1.0pp
Under 158.5
51.2%
@ 1.90+1.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.10
Marathon Be
2.00
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
BetVictor
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.81
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
BetVictor
1.75
Over/Under 163.5Actual: Under 163.5
Over 163.5
36.6%
@ 2.62+1.1pp
Under 163.5
63.4%
@ 1.44-1.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Under
Bet365
1.44

📊 3. Team Totals

UCLA total 95.5Actual: UCLA over 95.5
Over 95.5
50.5%
@ 1.34-18.8pp
Under 95.5
49.5%
@ 3.35+18.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.35
1xBet
3.00
Betano
2.77
UCLA total 99.5 · main lineActual: UCLA over 99.5
Over 99.5
34.8%
@ 1.85-18.3pp
Under 99.5
65.2%
@ 2.30+18.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.55
Under
Bet365
2.30
1xBet
2.25
Betano
1.98
Marathon Be
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
UCLA total 103.5Actual: UCLA over 103.5
Over 103.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
Under 103.5
no forecast
@ 1.65
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.19
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.47
Arkansas-Pine Bluff total 52Actual: Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 52
Over 52
86.0%
Under 52
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff total 56 · main lineActual: Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 56
Over 56
74.7%
@ 1.85+24.7pp
Under 56
25.3%
@ 1.85-24.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Arkansas-Pine Bluff total 60Actual: Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 60
Over 60
59.8%
Under 60
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread UCLA -47.5Actual: UCLA -47.5
UCLA -47.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
ARKA +47.5
no forecast
@ 1.79
Best 5 market prices
UCLA
Betano
2.27
Pinnacle
2.06
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.93
ARKA
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Be
1.78
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.74
Betano
1.55
Spread UCLA -44.5 · main lineActual: UCLA -44.5
UCLA -44.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
ARKA +44.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
Best 5 market prices
UCLA
Betano
1.85
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Be
1.72
ARKA
Bet365
2.10
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Spread UCLA -41.5Actual: UCLA -41.5
UCLA -41.5
no forecast
@ 1.69
ARKA +41.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
Best 5 market prices
UCLA
Marathon Be
1.69
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
ARKA
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.35

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +8.8+8.81st half: -5.4-5.42nd half2nd half: +0.6+0.62nd half: -6.6-6.6
-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +8.8+8.81st half: -5.4-5.42nd half2nd half: +0.6+0.62nd half: -6.6-6.6
UCLAArkansas-Pine Bluff
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UCLALast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota
#235
W
41-40
41
40
+1
A28/02
NCAA
Nebraska
#21
W
37-24
37
24
+13
H04/03
NCAA
USC
#153
W
45-30
45
30
+15
A08/03
NCAA
Rutgers
#267
W
30-24
30
24
+6
H13/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
W
44-33
44
33
+11
A14/03
NCAA
Purdue
#31
L
27-34
27
34
-7
H14/03
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
W
35-27
35
27
+8
H20/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A23/03
NCAA
Arizona
#150
W
43-29
43
29
+14
H03/11
NCAA
North Florida
#312
W
52-20
52
20
+32
H07/11
NCAA
68.6Avg total
38.7Scored
29.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75.5
Last 30 (30)37.633.671.3+4.060%37%
Last 30 at home (18)39.531.671.1+7.972%28%
Last 30 away (12)34.836.871.6-1.942%50%
Last 10 (10)38.729.968.6+8.880%20%
Last 5 (5)38.029.667.6+8.460%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)35.237.772.9-2.422%44%
vs Similar (6)31.736.368.0-4.733%33%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)41.530.171.6+11.393%33%
This opponent (Arkansas-Pine Bluff) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas-Pine BluffLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Alabama State
#330
L
33-34
33
34
-1
A14/02
NCAA
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
#172
L
31-33
31
33
-2
A17/02
NCAA
Texas Southern
#281
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H20/02
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H28/02
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
L
36-44
36
44
-8
A04/03
NCAA
Alcorn State
#348
W
37-19
37
19
+18
A06/03
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
L
37-39
37
39
-2
A13/03
NCAA
Arkansas
#145
L
28-47
28
47
-19
A04/11
NCAA
Baylor
#9
L
13-58
13
58
-45
A06/11
NCAA
72.4Avg total
33.5Scored
38.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75.5
Last 30 (30)36.236.272.4-0.053%33%
Last 30 at home (11)43.235.178.3+8.182%55%
Last 30 away (19)32.136.868.9-4.737%21%
Last 10 (10)33.538.972.4-5.430%40%
Last 5 (5)30.241.471.6-11.220%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)32.540.873.3-8.431%31%
vs Similar (9)35.233.068.2+2.256%22%
vs Weaker (8)43.232.275.5+11.088%50%
This opponent (UCLA) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread UCLA -25.5 · main lineActual: UCLA -25.5
UCLA -25.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
ARKA +25.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
1st half Over/Under 75.5 · main lineActual: Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.95
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
UCLA 1st half total 48.5 · main lineActual: UCLA over 48.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 2.25
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 1st half total 26.5 · main lineActual: Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 26.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.95
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread UCLA -26.5Actual: UCLA -26.5
UCLA -26.5
no forecast
@ 2.38
ARKA +26.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half Spread UCLA -24.5Actual: UCLA -24.5
UCLA -24.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
ARKA +24.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Under 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.72
Under
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.38
Under
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread UCLA -27.5Actual: UCLA -27.5
UCLA -27.5
no forecast
@ 3.00
ARKA +27.5
no forecast
@ 1.67
1st half Spread UCLA -23.5Actual: UCLA -23.5
UCLA -23.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
ARKA +23.5
no forecast
@ 1.96
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Under 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.47
Under
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half Over/Under 79.5Actual: Under 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.37
1st half Spread UCLA -28.5Actual: UCLA -28.5
UCLA -28.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
ARKA +28.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
1st half Spread UCLA -22.5Actual: UCLA -22.5
UCLA -22.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
ARKA +22.5
no forecast
@ 2.60
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.30
Under
no forecast
@ 3.25
1st half Over/Under 81.5Actual: Under 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 3.70
Under
no forecast
@ 1.30

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
UCLA win + total 157.5
🔒 Pro
ARKA win + total 157.5
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 55.575.6%1.89
Pinnacle
2.19
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		+32.6ppLost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 54.578.6%1.86
Pinnacle
2.01
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.82
BetVictor
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80		+31.5ppLost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 5480.9%1.82
Marathon Bet
1.82		----+30.1ppLost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 53.581.4%1.63
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.50		--+30.0ppLost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 5577.9%1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87		----+28.5ppLost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 56.572.3%1.90
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85		+27.6ppLost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 5674.7%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		---+24.7ppLost
UCLA under 10171.3%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83		--+21.3ppLost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 51.586.3%1.40
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.36		---+20.8ppLost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 52.584.0%1.43
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.41		--+19.4ppLost
Over 148.572.4%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+4.0ppLost
Over 149.570.2%1.33
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.28		---+1.0ppLost
UCLA over 80.593.6%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----0.1ppWon
UCLA over 82.590.7%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----0.8ppWon
UCLA over 81.592.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----1.4ppWon
UCLA over 83.588.9%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----2.6ppWon
UCLA over 84.586.9%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----3.5ppWon
UCLA over 85.584.7%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----5.5ppWon
UCLA over 86.582.2%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----6.5ppWon
UCLA over 87.579.4%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----9.3ppWon
UCLA over 88.576.4%1.08
Bet365
1.08		-----10.2ppWon
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 70.579.4%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----12.8ppWon
UCLA over 89.573.2%1.09
Bet365
1.09		-----12.9ppWon
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 68.573.2%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----17.2ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
UCLA wins
0
Arkansas-Pine Bluff wins
No previous meetings.
UCLAlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HNorth Florida114-63
03/11/26HArizona84-75
23/03/26AUconn57-73
20/03/26HUCF Knights75-71
14/03/26HPurdue66-73
14/03/26AMichigan State88-84
13/03/26HRutgers72-59
08/03/26AUSC89-68
04/03/26HNebraska72-52
28/02/26AMinnesota73-78
Arkansas-Pine Blufflast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26ABaylor53-109
04/11/26AArkansas61-106
13/03/26ASouthern Univ.81-84
06/03/26AAlcorn State83-48
04/03/26AJackson State78-81
28/02/26HMiss. Valley St.69-70
21/02/26HPrairie View A&M84-82
20/02/26HTexas Southern64-83
17/02/26AAlabama A&M Bulldogs70-82
14/02/26AAlabama State61-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UCLA
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game99.099.0-
Allowed / game69.069.0-
Point differential+30.0+30.0-
Avg total168.0168.0-
Over 158.5100%100%-
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLL0%
Home--
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games2-2
Win %0%-0%
Points / game57.0-57.0
Allowed / game107.5-107.5
Point differential-50.5--50.5
Avg total164.5-164.5
Over 158.5100%-100%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Rutgers220100%91.059.0+32.0
2 UCLA220100%99.069.0+30.0
3 Nebraska220100%86.561.0+25.5
4 Michigan State330100%88.764.3+24.3
5 Oregon220100%92.570.0+22.5
6 Wisconsin330100%79.058.0+21.0
7 Indiana330100%88.768.7+20.0
8 USC220100%94.074.5+19.5
9 Northwestern330100%78.760.0+18.7
10 Minnesota330100%74.757.7+17.0
11 Washington220100%83.570.0+13.5
12 Illinois32167%103.366.3+37.0
13 Iowa32167%85.064.7+20.3
14 Ohio State32167%85.377.7+7.7
15 Michigan32167%81.774.3+7.3
16 Purdue32167%78.071.3+6.7
17 Maryland21150%85.076.5+8.5
18 Penn State42250%79.080.2-1.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southwestern Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Alabama A&M Bulldogs32167%80.062.7+17.3
2 Prairie View A&M42250%78.880.2-1.5
3 Grambling St.21150%75.590.0-14.5
4 Alabama State31233%69.778.7-9.0
5 Texas Southern31233%76.091.0-15.0
6 Florida A&M41325%77.880.8-3.0
7 Jackson State41325%66.585.8-19.2
8 Bethune-Cookman4040%71.085.5-14.5
9 Miss. Valley St.2020%60.580.5-20.0
10 Southern Univ.4040%60.287.5-27.2
11 Alcorn State3030%66.095.7-29.7
12 Arkansas-Pine Bluff2020%57.0107.5-50.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
UCLA5155106
Arkansas-Pine Bluff92837
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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