UCLA will face Arizona on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Arizona as the clear favourite at 76% to 24% for UCLA, a reflection of Arizona's superior recent form and the higher projected score of 77-69. UCLA's last five games include a 75-71 home win over UCF Knights, a 57-73 away loss to UConn, and a 66-73 home defeat to Purdue, while Arizona's recent five feature a 109-88 home win over Arkansas, a 79-64 home victory over Purdue, and a 73-91 home loss to Michigan. In their 10-game history, Arizona has won seven times to UCLA's three, most recently defeating UCLA 69-65 on 14 November 2025. The model projects a total of 146.9 points, with a 13% chance that Arizona will cover the home line of -5.0 and a 43% probability of the over on the 149.5 total, and a 4% chance the game will go into overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UCLA winWon
23.9%fair 4.18
Best odds2.75
Implied36.3%
Edge-12.3pp
Arizona winLost
76.1%fair 1.31
Best odds1.50
Implied63.7%
Edge+12.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (UCLA) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 144.5Actual: Over 144.5
Over 144.5
55.3%
@ 1.47-8.1pp
Under 144.5
44.7%
@ 2.60+8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.47
Over/Under 149.5 · main lineActual: Over 149.5
Over 149.5
43.2%
@ 1.90-6.8pp
Under 149.5
56.8%
@ 1.92+6.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.90
Bet365
1.89
Betano
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.92
Betano
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Over/Under 154.5Actual: Over 154.5
Over 154.5
31.8%
@ 2.55-5.8pp
Under 154.5
68.2%
@ 1.50+5.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
UCLA total 73Actual: UCLA over 73
Over 73
35.5%
Under 73
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCLA total 77 · main lineActual: UCLA over 77
Over 77
22.2%
@ 1.85-27.8pp
Under 77
77.8%
@ 1.85+27.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
UCLA total 81Actual: UCLA over 81
Over 81
12.6%
Under 81
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arizona total 68.5Actual: Arizona over 68.5
Over 68.5
81.4%
@ 1.39+16.2pp
Under 68.5
18.6%
@ 2.60-16.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.60
Arizona total 72.5 · main lineActual: Arizona over 72.5
Over 72.5
69.0%
@ 1.87+18.7pp
Under 72.5
31.0%
@ 1.91-18.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Arizona total 76.5Actual: Arizona under 76.5
Over 76.5
53.9%
@ 2.50+9.8pp
Under 76.5
46.1%
@ 1.95-9.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
BetVictor
1.80
Under
BetVictor
1.95
Betano
1.42
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread UCLA -8Actual: UCLA -8
UCLA -8
8.3%
@ 1.52-52.9pp
ARIZ +8
91.7%
@ 2.40+52.9pp
Best 5 market prices
UCLA
Bet365
1.52
ARIZ
Bet365
2.40
Spread UCLA -5 · main lineActual: UCLA -5
UCLA -5
13.1%
@ 1.85-37.9pp
ARIZ +5
86.9%
@ 1.93+37.9pp
Best 5 market prices
UCLA
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.80
ARIZ
Bet365
1.93
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread UCLA -2Actual: UCLA -2
UCLA -2
19.5%
@ 2.25-21.6pp
ARIZ +2
80.5%
@ 1.57+21.6pp
Best 5 market prices
UCLA
Bet365
2.25
ARIZ
Bet365
1.57
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
UCLAArizona
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Arizona +24.5
99.4%
9.50
Bet365
9.50
-
-
-
-
+89.6pp
Won
Arizona +19.5
98.6%
6.75
Bet365
6.75
-
-
-
-
+84.7pp
Won
UCLA +20.5
86.3%
15.00
Bet365
15.00
-
-
-
-
+80.0pp
Won
Arizona +14.5
96.8%
4.20
Bet365
4.20
-
-
-
-
+74.6pp
Won
Arizona +12.5
95.6%
3.48
Betano
3.50
Bet365
3.45
-
-
-
+69.0pp
Won
Arizona +12
95.6%
3.35
Bet365
3.35
-
-
-
-
+67.9pp
Won
Arizona +11.5
94.8%
3.20
Betano
3.25
Bet365
3.15
-
-
-
+65.9pp
Won
UCLA +15.5
74.8%
9.75
Bet365
9.75
-
-
-
-
+65.2pp
Won
Arizona +11
94.8%
3.10
Bet365
3.10
-
-
-
-
+64.8pp
Won
Arizona +10.5
93.9%
2.90
Betano
2.95
Bet365
2.85
-
-
-
+62.1pp
Won
Arizona +10
93.9%
2.80
Bet365
2.80
-
-
-
-
+60.9pp
Won
Arizona +9.5
92.9%
2.69
Betano
2.72
Bet365
2.65
-
-
-
+58.4pp
Won
Arizona +9
92.8%
2.60
Bet365
2.60
-
-
-
-
+57.0pp
Push
Arizona +8.5
91.8%
2.50
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
+54.5pp
Lost
Arizona +8
91.7%
2.40
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
-
+52.9pp
Lost
Arizona +7.5
90.4%
2.26
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.25
-
-
-
+49.6pp
Lost
Arizona +7
90.3%
2.20
Bet365
2.20
-
-
-
-
+48.2pp
Lost
Arizona +6.5
88.9%
2.11
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
+45.2pp
Lost
Arizona +6
88.7%
2.00
Bet365
2.00
-
-
-
-
+42.6pp
Lost
Arizona +5.5
87.2%
1.98
Betano
2.02
Bet365
1.95
-
-
-
+40.2pp
Lost
Arizona +5
86.9%
1.90
Bet365
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.86
-
-
-
+37.9pp
Lost
Arizona +4.5
85.2%
1.85
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.87
BetVictor
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
+34.6pp
Lost
Arizona +4
84.9%
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.74
-
-
-
+32.0pp
Lost
Arizona +3.5
83.0%
1.72
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.69
-
-
+29.1pp
Lost
UCLA under 75.5
72.5%
2.05
Betano
2.05
-
-
-
-
+28.4pp
Lost
UCLA under 77
77.8%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
-
+27.8pp
Lost
UCLA under 77.5
78.4%
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.82
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
-
-
+27.6pp
Lost
UCLA under 76.5
75.6%
1.90
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.86
-
-
+27.1pp
Lost
Arizona +3
82.7%
1.66
Bet365
1.66
-
-
-
-
+26.8pp
Lost
UCLA under 78.5
81.1%
1.67
Betano
1.67
-
-
-
-
+25.7pp
Lost
UCLA under 79.5
83.5%
1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+24.1pp
Lost
Arizona +2.5
81.0%
1.62
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+24.0pp
Lost
UCLA under 80.5
85.7%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+22.8pp
Lost
Arizona +2
80.5%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+21.6pp
Lost
UCLA under 81.5
87.7%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
+21.3pp
Lost
Arizona over 72
71.4%
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
-
+21.2pp
Won
UCLA under 82.5
89.5%
1.32
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+20.0pp
Lost
Arizona +1.5
78.1%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Lost
Arizona over 71.5
72.4%
1.70
Betano
1.70
-
-
-
-
+17.7pp
Won
Arizona over 70.5
75.6%
1.55
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
-
+17.2pp
Won
UCLA under 83.5
91.0%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Lost
Arizona over 69.5
78.6%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+16.6pp
Won
UCLA under 84.5
92.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+16.2pp
Won
Arizona over 68.5
81.4%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+16.2pp
Won
UCLA under 85.5
93.6%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+14.8pp
Won
Arizona over 67.5
83.9%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Won
Arizona +1
77.6%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+14.2pp
Lost
UCLA under 86.5
94.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+14.2pp
Won
Arizona (regulation)
73.7%
1.50
Betano
1.52
Marathon Bet
1.48
-
-
-
+13.7pp
Lost
Arizona win
76.1%
1.48
Betano
1.50
WilliamHill
1.50
BetVictor
1.48
Bet365
1.47
Marathon Bet
1.45
+12.3pp
Lost
Arizona over 65.5
88.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
UCLA under 87.5
95.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
UCLA under 88.5
96.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Won
Arizona over 63.5
91.6%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
UCLA under 89.5
97.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Arizona -1
75.5%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Lost
UCLA under 90.5
97.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Arizona over 62.5
93.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
UCLA under 91.5
98.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Arizona over 61.5
94.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Arizona over 59.5
96.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Won
Arizona -1.5
73.7%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+7.1pp
Lost
Arizona over 57.5
97.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Arizona over 55.5
98.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Under 156
71.8%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Lost
Under 156.5
72.4%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
Under 155.5
70.3%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
Overtime: no
95.9%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+5.5pp
-
Under 157
73.8%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Lost
Under 157.5
74.4%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Lost
Under 174.5
95.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Arizona -2
72.7%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Lost
Under 159.5
78.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Under 164.5
85.8%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Under 169.5
91.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Over 124.5
91.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Over 129.5
85.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Over 134.5
77.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-7.7pp
Won
Arizona under 83.5
72.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-12.9pp
Won
UCLA over 62.5
74.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-15.3pp
Won
UCLA over 63.5
71.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-17.4pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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