PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
UNC Asheville hosts Tennessee Tech on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names UNC Asheville the clear favourite, giving it a 77% win probability thanks to a balanced 2-2 record, 81.5 points scored and 81.8 allowed per game, and a higher scoring average than Tennessee Tech's 92.0 points per game. UNC Asheville's home slate shows a 1-1 record, 88.0 points scored and 78.5 allowed, while Tennessee Tech's road record is 0-2, 77.0 points scored and 98.0 allowed, indicating a defensive struggle on the road. In the last five games each side has gone 2-3, with UNC Asheville's recent results including a 73-70 win over West Georgia and a 75-83 loss to Western Carolina, and Tennessee Tech's recent results featuring a 66-90 loss to Indiana and two home wins over Western Kentucky and Blue Mountain. The teams have met once before, with UNC Asheville winning 61-55 in 2021. Pythia projects a 84-76 score for the game, a total of 160.5 points, and a 4% chance of overtime. The model favours UNC Asheville, giving it a 77% probability of covering the spread and a 23% chance for Tennessee Tech to win. The final game-day fact is that UNC Asheville's last meeting with Tennessee Tech ended 61-55 in 2021.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 81.5 | 81.8 | 163.2 | -0.2 | 50% |
| Season at home (2) | 88.0 | 78.5 | 166.5 | +9.5 | 50% |
| Season away (2) | 75.0 | 85.0 | 160.0 | -10.0 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 75.6 | 79.4 | 155.0 | -3.8 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 79.4 | 80.4 | 159.8 | -1.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (14) | 69.0 | 77.8 | 146.8 | -8.8 | 21% |
| vs Similar ◀ (10) | 76.2 | 73.7 | 149.9 | +2.5 | 60% |
| vs Weaker (5) | 80.6 | 67.6 | 148.2 | +13.0 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 92.0 | 90.0 | 182.0 | +2.0 | 50% |
| Season at home (2) | 107.0 | 82.0 | 189.0 | +25.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 77.0 | 98.0 | 175.0 | -21.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 77.2 | 76.9 | 154.1 | +0.3 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 88.2 | 89.8 | 178.0 | -1.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (16) | 72.6 | 84.1 | 156.7 | -11.6 | 31% |
| vs Similar ◀ (10) | 70.7 | 72.2 | 142.9 | -1.5 | 40% |
| vs Weaker (3) | 85.7 | 65.0 | 150.7 | +20.7 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.7 | 36.2 | 70.9 | -1.5 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 36.3 | 35.0 | 71.3 | +1.3 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 32.6 | 37.7 | 70.3 | -5.1 | 38% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.3 | 37.1 | 72.4 | -1.8 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.8 | 40.0 | 77.8 | -2.2 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (14) | 31.5 | 39.2 | 70.7 | -7.7 | 21% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (10) | 35.0 | 34.7 | 69.7 | +0.3 | 60% | - |
| vs Weaker (5) | 41.8 | 33.2 | 75.0 | +8.6 | 80% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.6 | 34.9 | 69.5 | -0.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 37.8 | 32.9 | 70.7 | +4.8 | 46% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 32.1 | 36.5 | 68.6 | -4.4 | 35% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.3 | 34.6 | 70.9 | +1.7 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 45.4 | 40.0 | 85.4 | +5.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (16) | 33.3 | 38.0 | 71.3 | -4.7 | 25% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (10) | 31.5 | 32.6 | 64.1 | -1.1 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (3) | 40.7 | 27.7 | 68.3 | +13.0 | 67% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 18/11/21 | UNC Asheville v Tennessee Tech | 61-55 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | A | West Georgia | 73-70 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Western Carolina | 75-83 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Erskine | 101-74 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Richmond Spiders | 77-100 |
| 07/03/26 | A | High Point | 71-75 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Longwood | 85-82 OT |
| 28/02/26 | H | Charleston Southern | 75-92 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Gardner Webb | 77-71 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Radford | 74-73 OT |
| 20/02/26 | A | High Point | 48-74 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | A | Indiana | 66-90 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Western Kentucky | 97-94 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Blue Mountain | 117-70 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Mississippi St. | 88-106 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Southeast Missouri State | 73-89 |
| 27/02/26 | A | UT Martin | 49-64 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Lindenwood | 72-57 |
| 20/02/26 | H | Siu Edwardsville | 62-52 |
| 14/02/26 | A | Southern Indiana | 82-74 |
| 13/02/26 | A | Morehead State | 66-73 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWLW | 50% |
| Home | WL | 50% |
| Away | LW | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Points / game | 81.5 | 88.0 | 75.0 |
| Allowed / game | 81.8 | 78.5 | 85.0 |
| Point differential | -0.2 | +9.5 | -10.0 |
| Avg total | 163.2 | 166.5 | 160.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWWL | 50% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 92.0 | 107.0 | 77.0 |
| Allowed / game | 90.0 | 82.0 | 98.0 |
| Point differential | +2.0 | +25.0 | -21.0 |
| Avg total | 182.0 | 189.0 | 175.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  High Point | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 76.5 | 59.0 | +17.5 |
| 2 |  Longwood | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 94.2 | 67.2 | +27.0 |
| 3 | UNC Asheville | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.5 | 81.8 | -0.2 |
| 4 |  Charleston Southern | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.7 | 76.3 | -2.7 |
| 5 |  Gardner Webb | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 61.3 | 83.3 | -22.0 |
| 6 |  USC Upstate | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 75.0 | 68.8 | +6.2 |
| 7 |  Winthrop | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 89.0 | 94.7 | -5.7 |
| 8 |  Radford | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 59.7 | 76.7 | -17.0 |
| 9 |  Presbyterian | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 71.7 | 90.7 | -19.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tennessee State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 104.7 | 76.0 | +28.7 |
| 2 |  Southeast Missouri State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.3 | 74.0 | +7.3 |
| 3 |  Lindenwood | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 88.5 | 70.5 | +18.0 |
| 4 |  Siu Edwardsville | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 77.8 | 68.5 | +9.2 |
| 5 | Tennessee Tech | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 92.0 | 90.0 | +2.0 |
| 6 |  UT Martin | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 84.7 | 80.0 | +4.7 |
| 7 |  Morehead State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.3 | 83.3 | -7.0 |
| 8 |  Southern Indiana | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 78.0 | 66.5 | +11.5 |
| 9 |  Western Illinois | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 74.5 | 73.2 | +1.2 |
| 10 |  Eastern Illinois | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 69.0 | 80.0 | -11.0 |
| 11 |  UALR | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 73.3 | 86.3 | -13.0 |
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