University-Ugra will host Chelyabinsk in the Super League on 5 November 2026, with the model favouring the visitors who are 5-1 this season, averaging 91.7 points per game while conceding 91.2, and sit fourth in the standings, whereas the home side are 3-4, scoring 72.6 and allowing 80.1, and occupy seventh place. At home University-Ugra have gone 1-2, scoring 76.7 and allowing 86.3, and their last five games included a win over Metallurg 78-76 at home and a loss to CSKA Moscow 63-78 away, while Chelyabinsk's last five have been 4-1, highlighted by a 103-94 win over Novosibirsk at home and a 95-94 victory over Barnaul at home, but a 82-117 loss to Khimki M. away. Historically the teams have met nine times, with Chelyabinsk winning six, most recently 79-64 on 13 April 2026. The Pythia model gives Chelyabinsk a 64% chance of winning and University-Ugra a 36% chance, projects a final score of 82-86 and a total of 168.5 points, with the home team's 5.5-point line having a 55% chance of covering and the over on 170.0 having a 45% probability, while the game has a 5% chance of going into overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
University-Ugra winLost
36.5%fair 2.74
Best odds2.94
Implied31.5%
Edge+5.0pp
Chelyabinsk winWon
63.5%fair 1.57
Best odds1.43
Implied68.5%
Edge-5.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 03 Nov 14:17 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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PythiaBasketballBETA
Super League· Arena Ugra
Ufa
Temp Sumz Revda
Dynamo Grozny
CSKA Moscow 2
Khimki M.
Barnaul
Novosibirsk
Tambov
Desna Bryansk
Rusichi Kursk
Izhevsk