Vaerlose vs Aarhus Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 05 Dec 2012

Tip-off: 18:00

Final 104-97 (OT)

24-23 16-15 24-21 18-23 22-15

Position#8

Record2-11

FormLLWLL

Points / game75.4

Allowed / game84.8

Vaerlose 🏆

Aarhus

Position#9

Record5-8

FormWLLWL

Points / game69.9

Allowed / game79.2

BasketligaenRound 13

Other2012-13

Meetings · Vaerlose v Aarhus

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vaerlose winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Aarhus winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Vaerlose

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Aalborg

#10

83-77 OT

A13/10

Basketligaen

Horsholm

82-91

-9

A17/10

Basketligaen

Bakken Bears

69-87

-18

H21/10

Basketligaen

Team FOG Naestved

70-75

-5

A24/10

Basketligaen

Aarhus

68-71 OT

-3

A30/10

Basketligaen

Randers

80-95

-15

A03/11

Basketligaen

Svendborg

75-82

-7

H08/11

Basketligaen

Randers

111-105

111

105

H11/11

Basketligaen

Horsholm

79-84

-5

A17/11

Basketligaen

Bakken Bears

62-82

-20

A29/11

Basketligaen

17-21

19-14

17-17

15-16

23-24

15-23

20-17

24-27

16-24

13-26

19-22

21-15

20-21

24-27

15-15

11-12

20-13

11-15

15-17

16-17

18-30

18-27

22-11

22-27

13-22

24-18

24-24

14-18

28-34

31-25

27-23

25-23

20-31

20-21

10-12

29-20

21-20

9-19

15-25

17-18

162.8Avg total

77.9Scored

84.9Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (13)	75.4	84.8	160.2	-9.5	15%
Season at home (6)	76.0	88.0	164.0	-12.0	17%
Season away (7)	74.9	82.1	157.0	-7.3	14%
Last 10 (10)	77.9	84.9	162.8	-7.0	20%
Last 5 (5)	81.4	89.6	171.0	-8.2	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)	75.4	87.1	162.5	-11.7	21%
vs Similar ◀ (10)	76.0	78.9	154.9	-2.9	40%
vs Weaker (1)	83.0	77.0	160.0	+6.0	100%

This opponent (Aarhus) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Aarhus

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Horsens

65-79

-14

A11/10

Basketligaen

Randers

97-90

H13/10

Basketligaen

Bakken Bears

77-105

105

-28

A18/10

Basketligaen

Bakken Bears

59-73

-14

A25/10

Denmark Cup

Sisu

50-75

-25

A28/10

Basketligaen

Vaerlose

71-68 OT

H30/10

Basketligaen

Aalborg

#10

54-64

-10

A08/11

Basketligaen

Bakken Bears

48-80

-32

H13/11

Basketligaen

Randers

83-77

H21/11

Basketligaen

Sisu

74-77

-3

H29/11

Basketligaen

16-15

27-25

11-16

11-23

19-23

31-25

21-27

26-15

21-25

12-30

22-26

22-24

–

13-16

11-30

11-13

15-16

13-20

15-11

17-15

17-16

14-14

15-14

14-13

11-23

17-14

10-22

9-22

12-22

16-26

27-18

23-16

17-17

18-21

14-16

22-20

20-20

146.6Avg total

67.8Scored

78.8Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (13)	69.9	79.2	149.1	-9.2	38%
Season at home (8)	74.5	80.4	154.9	-5.9	50%
Season away (5)	62.6	77.2	139.8	-14.6	20%
Last 10 (10)	67.8	78.8	146.6	-11.0	30%
Last 5 (5)	66.0	73.2	139.2	-7.2	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)	67.6	83.8	151.4	-16.2	20%
vs Similar ◀ (2)	69.0	65.5	134.5	+3.5	100%
vs Weaker (2)	75.5	77.0	152.5	-1.5	50%

This opponent (Vaerlose) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

VaerloseAarhus

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.9	22.3	41.2	-3.4	30%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	18.3	21.1	39.4	-2.9	36%	-
Last 30 away (16)	19.4	23.3	42.8	-3.9	25%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.6	24.0	43.6	-4.4	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.0	27.4	47.4	-7.4	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)	18.6	23.6	42.2	-5.0	26%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	19.7	20.0	39.7	-0.3	40%	-
vs Weaker (1)	17.0	21.0	38.0	-4.0	0%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (13)	16.8	19.0	35.8	-2.2	38%	-
Last 30 at home (8)	17.1	20.4	37.5	-3.2	38%	-
Last 30 away (5)	16.2	16.8	33.0	-0.6	40%	-
Last 10 (9)	16.3	19.3	35.7	-3.0	22%	-
Last 5 (5)	15.6	19.0	34.6	-3.4	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)	17.0	20.4	37.4	-3.4	33%	-
vs Similar ◀ (2)	15.0	17.0	32.0	-2.0	50%	-
vs Weaker (2)	17.5	14.5	32.0	+3.0	50%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.6	20.9	39.5	-2.3	30%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	20.0	20.5	40.5	-0.5	36%	-
Last 30 away (16)	17.4	21.2	38.7	-3.8	25%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.4	21.5	39.9	-3.1	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.4	22.0	42.4	-1.6	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)	18.6	21.8	40.4	-3.3	26%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	18.7	19.8	38.5	-1.1	30%	-
vs Weaker (1)	19.0	14.0	33.0	+5.0	100%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (13)	17.5	20.3	37.8	-2.8	54%	-
Last 30 at home (8)	18.4	19.5	37.9	-1.1	50%	-
Last 30 away (5)	16.2	21.6	37.8	-5.4	60%	-
Last 10 (9)	18.0	21.2	39.2	-3.2	56%	-
Last 5 (5)	16.2	16.2	32.4	+0.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)	17.8	23.2	41.0	-5.4	33%	-
vs Similar ◀ (2)	15.5	10.0	25.5	+5.5	100%	-
vs Weaker (2)	18.5	17.5	36.0	+1.0	100%	-

VaerloseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Aalborg

#10

36-35

A13/10

Basketligaen

Horsholm

38-47

-9

A17/10

Basketligaen

Bakken Bears

29-50

-21

H21/10

Basketligaen

Team FOG Naestved

44-48

-4

A24/10

Basketligaen

Aarhus

31-28

A30/10

Basketligaen

Randers

36-57

-21

A03/11

Basketligaen

Svendborg

37-40

-3

H08/11

Basketligaen

Randers

59-59

H11/11

Basketligaen

Horsholm

40-52

-12

A17/11

Basketligaen

Bakken Bears

30-39

-9

A29/11

Basketligaen

83.5Avg total

38.0Scored

45.5Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	37.5	43.2	80.7	-5.7	27%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	38.3	41.6	79.9	-3.4	29%	-
Last 30 away (16)	36.9	44.6	81.4	-7.7	25%	-
Last 10 (10)	38.0	45.5	83.5	-7.5	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	40.4	49.4	89.8	-9.0	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)	37.2	45.4	82.6	-8.3	11%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	38.4	39.8	78.2	-1.4	50%	-
vs Weaker (1)	36.0	35.0	71.0	+1.0	100%	-

This opponent (Aarhus) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

AarhusLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Horsens

43-40

A11/10

Basketligaen

Randers

50-48

H13/10

Basketligaen

Bakken Bears

33-55

-22

A18/10

Basketligaen

Sisu

24-46

-22

A28/10

Basketligaen

Vaerlose

28-31

-3

H30/10

Basketligaen

Aalborg

#10

29-28

A08/11

Basketligaen

Bakken Bears

27-36

-9

H13/11

Basketligaen

Randers

43-44

-1

H21/11

Basketligaen

Sisu

32-37

-5

H29/11

Basketligaen

74.9Avg total

34.3Scored

40.6Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (13)	34.3	39.3	73.6	-5.0	38%	-
Last 30 at home (8)	35.5	39.9	75.4	-4.4	25%	-
Last 30 away (5)	32.4	38.4	70.8	-6.0	60%	-
Last 10 (9)	34.3	40.6	74.9	-6.2	33%	-
Last 5 (5)	31.8	35.2	67.0	-3.4	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)	34.8	43.7	78.4	-8.9	22%	-
vs Similar ◀ (2)	30.5	27.0	57.5	+3.5	50%	-
vs Weaker (2)	36.0	32.0	68.0	+4.0	100%	-

This opponent (Vaerlose) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	17.9	20.0	37.9	-2.1	27%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	18.6	22.1	40.7	-3.6	21%	-
Last 30 away (16)	17.3	18.1	35.4	-0.8	31%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.4	18.3	36.7	+0.1	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.6	19.0	38.6	+0.6	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)	18.4	21.0	39.4	-2.6	32%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	17.1	18.4	35.5	-1.3	20%	-
vs Weaker (1)	17.0	17.0	34.0	+0.0	0%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (13)	17.5	19.8	37.2	-2.3	31%	-
Last 30 at home (8)	18.6	20.8	39.4	-2.1	38%	-
Last 30 away (5)	15.6	18.2	33.8	-2.6	20%	-
Last 10 (9)	16.7	18.7	35.3	-2.0	44%	-
Last 5 (5)	17.0	17.2	34.2	-0.2	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)	16.8	20.0	36.8	-3.2	22%	-
vs Similar ◀ (2)	18.5	19.0	37.5	-0.5	50%	-
vs Weaker (2)	19.5	19.5	39.0	+0.0	50%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	19.4	19.7	39.1	-0.3	37%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	20.8	20.1	40.9	+0.7	50%	-
Last 30 away (16)	18.2	19.3	37.5	-1.1	25%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.4	19.3	38.7	+0.1	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.4	21.2	42.6	+0.2	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)	19.4	19.8	39.2	-0.4	37%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	19.9	19.8	39.7	+0.1	40%	-
vs Weaker (1)	15.0	16.0	31.0	-1.0	0%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (13)	16.6	19.3	35.9	-2.7	23%	-
Last 30 at home (8)	17.9	18.5	36.4	-0.6	38%	-
Last 30 away (5)	14.6	20.6	35.2	-6.0	0%	-
Last 10 (9)	16.8	19.6	36.3	-2.8	22%	-
Last 5 (5)	15.4	19.6	35.0	-4.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)	17.3	19.0	36.3	-1.7	22%	-
vs Similar ◀ (2)	15.5	16.5	32.0	-1.0	50%	-
vs Weaker (2)	14.5	23.5	38.0	-9.0	0%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	37.3	39.7	77.0	-2.4	40%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	39.4	42.2	81.6	-2.9	43%	-
Last 30 away (16)	35.5	37.4	72.9	-1.9	38%	-
Last 10 (10)	37.8	37.6	75.4	+0.2	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	41.0	40.2	81.2	+0.8	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)	37.7	40.8	78.5	-3.1	37%	-
vs Similar ◀ (10)	37.0	38.2	75.2	-1.2	50%	-
vs Weaker (1)	32.0	33.0	65.0	-1.0	0%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (13)	34.1	39.1	73.2	-5.0	31%	-
Last 30 at home (8)	36.5	39.2	75.8	-2.8	50%	-
Last 30 away (5)	30.2	38.8	69.0	-8.6	0%	-
Last 10 (9)	33.4	38.2	71.7	-4.8	44%	-
Last 5 (5)	32.4	36.8	69.2	-4.4	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)	34.1	39.0	73.1	-4.9	33%	-
vs Similar ◀ (2)	34.0	35.5	69.5	-1.5	50%	-
vs Weaker (2)	34.0	43.0	77.0	-9.0	0%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Vaerlose wins

Aarhus wins

Date	Game	Score
30/10/12	Aarhus v Vaerlose	71-68 OT

Vaerloselast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
29/11/12	A	Bakken Bears	62-82
17/11/12	A	Horsholm	79-84
11/11/12	H	Randers	111-105
08/11/12	H	Svendborg	75-82
03/11/12	A	Randers	80-95
30/10/12	A	Aarhus	68-71 OT
24/10/12	A	Team FOG Naestved	70-75
21/10/12	H	Bakken Bears	69-87
17/10/12	A	Horsholm	82-91
13/10/12	A	Aalborg	83-77 OT

Aarhuslast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
29/11/12	H	Sisu	74-77
21/11/12	H	Randers	83-77
13/11/12	H	Bakken Bears	48-80
08/11/12	A	Aalborg	54-64
30/10/12	H	Vaerlose	71-68 OT
28/10/12	A	Sisu	50-75
25/10/12	A	Bakken Bears	59-73
18/10/12	A	Bakken Bears	77-105
13/10/12	H	Randers	97-90
11/10/12	A	Horsens	65-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Vaerlose

Basketligaen 2012-13

Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLWLL	15%
Home	LLLLW	17%
Away	LLLLL	14%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	13	6	7
Win %	15%	17%	14%
Points / game	75.4	76.0	74.9
Allowed / game	84.8	88.0	82.1
Point differential	-9.5	-12.0	-7.3
Avg total	160.2	164.0	157.0
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	0%	0%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	0% (3)	-	0% (3)
Overtime %	15%	0%	29%

Aarhus

Basketligaen 2012-13

Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WLLWL	38%
Home	WWLWL	50%
Away	WLLLL	20%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	13	8	5
Win %	38%	50%	20%
Points / game	69.9	74.5	62.6
Allowed / game	79.2	80.4	77.2
Point differential	-9.2	-5.9	-14.6
Avg total	149.1	154.9	139.8
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	0%	0%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	67% (3)	50% (2)	100% (1)
Overtime %	15%	25%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Svendborg	13	13	0	100%	92.6	82.2	+10.5
2	Bakken Bears	13	12	1	92%	90.4	74.8	+15.6
3	Horsens	13	9	4	69%	87.4	80.4	+7.0
4	Sisu	13	9	4	69%	80.8	74.2	+6.6
5	Team FOG Naestved	13	7	6	54%	78.9	73.7	+5.2
6	Aarhus	13	5	8	38%	69.9	79.2	-9.2
7	Horsholm	13	4	9	31%	77.4	86.3	-8.9
8	Randers	13	3	10	23%	89.8	92.1	-2.3
9	Vaerlose	13	2	11	15%	75.4	84.8	-9.5
10	Aalborg	13	1	12	8%	77.2	92.2	-15.0

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
Vaerlose	24	16	24	18	22	104
Aarhus	23	15	21	23	15	97

← all games of the day

Vaerlose vs Aarhus Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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