Vanderbilt hosts Wake Forest on 5 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the Commodores at 94% due to their dominant 1-0 record, 93.0 points per game and 47.0 allowed, placing them 33rd, versus Wake Forest's 1-0 record, 83.0 points per game and 62.0 allowed, 130th. Vanderbilt's single home game was a 93-47 win over Bellarmine, and their last five games show three wins and two losses, while Wake Forest's last five also include three wins and two losses with a recent 95-89 win over Virginia Tech. The only prior meeting ended with Vanderbilt defeating Wake Forest 98-67 on 21 December 2025. Pythia projects a 88-69 score, 157.3 total points, and a 54% chance Vanderbilt will cover the -17.5 spread; the over on the 155.0 total has a 56% probability, and the game has a 1% chance of overtime. Vanderbilt's recent performance and higher scoring margin give the model a clear edge, and the projected 88-69 outcome reflects that advantage.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Vanderbilt winWon
94.4%fair 1.06
Best odds1.04
Implied92.7%
Edge+1.7pp
Wake Forest winLost
5.6%fair 17.99
Best odds15.00
Implied7.3%
Edge-1.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Vanderbilt) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 150Actual: Under 150
Over 150
67.7%
@ 1.43+2.7pp
Under 150
32.3%
@ 2.65-2.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.43
Under
Bet365
2.65
Over/Under 155 · main lineActual: Under 155
Over 155
55.6%
@ 1.89+5.1pp
Under 155
44.4%
@ 1.95-5.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.88
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.83
Over/Under 160Actual: Under 160
Over 160
43.0%
@ 2.50+5.5pp
Under 160
57.0%
@ 1.50-5.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Vanderbilt total 82Actual: Vanderbilt under 82
Over 82
73.5%
Under 82
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vanderbilt total 86 · main lineActual: Vanderbilt under 86
Over 86
58.2%
@ 1.85+8.1pp
Under 86
41.8%
@ 1.86-8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Vanderbilt total 90Actual: Vanderbilt under 90
Over 90
41.5%
Under 90
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wake Forest total 65Actual: Wake Forest under 65
Over 65
67.1%
Under 65
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wake Forest total 69 · main lineActual: Wake Forest under 69
Over 69
51.0%
@ 1.85+0.7pp
Under 69
49.0%
@ 1.87-0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Wake Forest total 73Actual: Wake Forest under 73
Over 73
34.8%
Under 73
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Vanderbilt -21Actual: Vanderbilt -21
VAND -21
41.1%
@ 2.22-0.4pp
WAKE +21
58.9%
@ 1.58+0.4pp
Best 5 market prices
VAND
Bet365
2.22
WAKE
Bet365
1.58
Spread Vanderbilt -18 · main lineActual: Vanderbilt -18
VAND -18
52.1%
@ 1.88+1.1pp
WAKE +18
47.9%
@ 1.96-1.1pp
Best 5 market prices
VAND
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.80
WAKE
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.94
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread Vanderbilt -15Actual: Vanderbilt -15
VAND -15
63.0%
@ 1.62+3.8pp
WAKE +15
37.0%
@ 2.50-3.8pp
Best 5 market prices
VAND
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.50
WAKE
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
VanderbiltWake Forest
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Vanderbilt over 79.5
80.5%
1.29
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Lost
Vanderbilt over 82.5
71.1%
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Lost
Vanderbilt over 81.5
74.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+6.3pp
Lost
Vanderbilt (regulation)
93.5%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Marathon Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Vanderbilt -9.5
79.0%
1.27
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Over 146.5
74.7%
1.34
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
Vanderbilt over 69.5
96.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Vanderbilt over 80.5
77.6%
1.27
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Lost
Over 145.5
76.7%
1.30
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Lost
Vanderbilt over 71.5
95.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Vanderbilt over 70.5
96.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Vanderbilt over 72.5
94.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Vanderbilt over 76.5
87.7%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Lost
Vanderbilt over 73.5
92.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Vanderbilt -10
78.5%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Vanderbilt -7.5
83.7%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Vanderbilt over 74.5
91.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Lost
Vanderbilt over 75.5
89.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Lost
Over 147
74.2%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Lost
Over 147.5
72.7%
1.34
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Lost
Vanderbilt +2.5
95.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Vanderbilt -2.5
92.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Vanderbilt -11.5
73.6%
1.31
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Vanderbilt -10.5
76.4%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Vanderbilt over 77.5
85.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Lost
Vanderbilt -12.5
70.6%
1.37
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Over 129.5
95.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Lost
Vanderbilt over 78.5
83.1%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Lost
Over 130.5
95.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Lost
Over 148.5
70.6%
1.37
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Lost
Wake Forest over 53.5
94.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Lost
Over 134.5
92.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Lost
Over 144.5
78.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Lost
Wake Forest over 54.5
93.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Lost
Over 148
72.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Lost
Wake Forest over 55.5
91.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Lost
Over 135.5
91.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Lost
Vanderbilt win
94.4%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Marathon Bet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+1.7pp
Won
Over 139.5
86.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Lost
Vanderbilt -12
72.8%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Wake Forest over 63.5
71.8%
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Lost
Vanderbilt -11
75.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Wake Forest over 56.5
89.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Lost
Wake Forest over 57.5
88.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Lost
Wake Forest +25
72.2%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Wake Forest under 82.5
90.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Wake Forest over 62.5
75.1%
1.24
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Lost
Wake Forest over 59.5
83.6%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Lost
Wake Forest over 60.5
81.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Lost
Wake Forest over 61.5
78.2%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Lost
Vanderbilt under 99.5
87.8%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Under 180.5
92.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Over 140.5
85.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Lost
Wake Forest over 58.5
86.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Lost
Wake Forest under 81.5
88.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Wake Forest +24.5
70.1%
1.31
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Under 179.5
91.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Vanderbilt under 96.5
80.6%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Wake Forest under 80.5
86.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Wake Forest under 78.5
82.1%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Vanderbilt under 97.5
83.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Wake Forest under 76.5
76.5%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Wake Forest under 74.5
70.0%
1.29
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Wake Forest under 79.5
84.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Wake Forest under 77.5
79.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Under 175.5
87.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Vanderbilt under 95.5
77.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Wake Forest under 75.5
73.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Vanderbilt under 93.5
71.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Under 174.5
85.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Under 170.5
79.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.0pp
Won
Under 169.5
77.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-6.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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