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Virginia vs Wake Forest Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 04 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 75-70
0-0 32-24 0-0 43-46
Position#19
Record25-5
FormWWWWL
Points / game80.3
Allowed / game69.3
Virginia 🏆
USA
vs
Wake Forest
USA
Position#190
Record15-14
FormWWLLW
Points / game79.1
Allowed / game77.1
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Virginia v Wake Forest
03 Mar 2026
VIRG75
WAKE70
17 Feb 2024
VIRG49
WAKE47
15 Jan 2022
VIRG55
WAKE63
06 Jan 2021
VIRG70
WAKE61
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Virginia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Wake Forest winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Notre Dame
#269
W
100-97 OT
100
97
+3
A28/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
73-66
73
66
+7
A31/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
67-47
67
47
+20
H04/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
72-59
72
59
+13
H07/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
61-58
61
58
+3
A11/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
W
70-66
70
66
+4
A15/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
94-68
94
68
+26
A19/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
86-83
86
83
+3
H21/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
90-61
90
61
+29
H25/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
51-77
51
77
-26
A28/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
35-44
0-0
38-29
0-0
27-32
0-0
46-34
0-0
33-20
0-0
34-27
0-0
38-35
0-0
34-24
0-0
32-32
0-0
29-26
0-0
37-37
0-0
33-29
0-0
59-27
0-0
35-41
0-0
39-44
0-0
47-39
0-0
32-19
0-0
58-42
0-0
26-41
0-0
25-36
144.6Avg total
76.4Scored
68.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)80.369.3149.7+11.083%
Season at home (18)83.765.5149.2+18.289%
Season away (12)75.275.1150.3+0.275%
Last 10 (10)76.468.2144.6+8.290%
Last 5 (5)78.271.0149.2+7.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)51.077.0128.0-26.00%
vs Similar (8)80.170.4150.5+9.888%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)81.868.6150.4+13.286%
This opponent (Wake Forest) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Wake ForestUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Duke
#8
L
69-90
69
90
-21
A24/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
L
76-80 OT
76
80
-4
A27/01
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
78-96
78
96
-18
H31/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
80-88
80
88
-8
H07/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
83-67
83
67
+16
A12/02
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
68-63
68
63
+5
H14/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
85-77
85
77
+8
H19/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
63-82
63
82
-19
A21/02
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
67-68
67
68
-1
A25/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
88-83
88
83
+5
H28/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
31-42
0-0
38-48
0-0
36-30
0-0
30-36
0-0
31-49
0-0
47-47
0-0
34-43
0-0
46-45
0-0
37-33
0-0
46-34
0-0
30-39
0-0
38-24
0-0
45-32
0-0
40-45
0-0
33-43
0-0
30-39
0-0
29-22
0-0
38-46
0-0
42-46
0-0
46-37
155.1Avg total
75.7Scored
79.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)79.177.1156.2+2.152%
Season at home (17)83.377.6160.9+5.665%
Season away (12)73.276.2149.5-3.033%
Last 10 (10)75.779.4155.1-3.740%
Last 5 (5)74.274.6148.8-0.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)76.686.1162.7-9.59%
vs Similar (16)79.771.8151.4+7.975%
vs Weaker (3)78.769.3148.0+9.367%
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: -3.1-3.1Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +5.2+5.2Q4: -0.2-0.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: -3.1-3.1Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +5.2+5.2Q4: -0.2-0.2
VirginiaWake Forest
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Notre Dame
#269
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A28/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
27-32
27
32
-5
A31/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
33-20
33
20
+13
H04/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H07/02
NCAA
Florida State
#167
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A11/02
NCAA
Ohio State
#104
D
37-37
37
37
+0
A15/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
59-27
59
27
+32
A19/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H21/02
NCAA
NC State
#128
W
32-19
32
19
+13
H25/02
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
26-41
26
41
-15
A28/02
NCAA
68.9Avg total
35.8Scored
33.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.231.170.3+8.073%-
Last 30 at home (18)41.230.371.5+10.889%-
Last 30 away (12)36.232.368.5+3.850%-
Last 10 (10)35.833.168.9+2.740%-
Last 5 (5)38.633.672.2+5.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)26.041.067.0-15.00%-
vs Similar (8)38.830.869.5+8.075%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)40.030.870.8+9.176%-
This opponent (Wake Forest) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Wake ForestLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Duke
#8
L
31-42
31
42
-11
A24/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
36-30
36
30
+6
A27/01
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
31-49
31
49
-18
H31/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
34-43
34
43
-9
H07/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
37-33
37
33
+4
A12/02
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
30-39
30
39
-9
H14/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
45-32
45
32
+13
H19/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
33-43
33
43
-10
A21/02
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
29-22
29
22
+7
A25/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H28/02
NCAA
72.7Avg total
34.8Scored
37.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.037.774.7-0.637%-
Last 30 at home (18)39.738.478.2+1.344%-
Last 30 away (12)33.036.569.5-3.525%-
Last 10 (10)34.837.972.7-3.140%-
Last 5 (5)35.836.472.2-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)35.542.878.3-7.49%-
vs Similar (16)38.135.073.1+3.144%-
vs Weaker (3)37.033.070.0+4.0100%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Virginia wins
2
Wake Forest wins
DateGameScore
27/02/25Wake Forest v Virginia75-83
17/02/24Virginia v Wake Forest49-47
13/01/24Wake Forest v Virginia66-47
21/01/23Wake Forest v Virginia67-76
15/01/22Virginia v Wake Forest55-63
07/01/21Virginia v Wake Forest70-61
26/01/20Wake Forest v Virginia63-65 OT
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/26ADuke51-77
25/02/26HNC State90-61
21/02/26HMiami (FL)86-83
19/02/26AGeorgia Tech94-68
15/02/26AOhio State70-66
11/02/26AFlorida State61-58
07/02/26HSyracuse72-59
04/02/26HPittsburgh67-47
31/01/26ABoston College73-66
28/01/26ANotre Dame100-97 OT
Wake Forestlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/26HSyracuse88-83
25/02/26ABoston College67-68
21/02/26AVirginia Tech63-82
19/02/26HClemson85-77
14/02/26HStanford68-63
12/02/26AGeorgia Tech83-67
07/02/26HLouisville80-88
31/01/26HNC State78-96
27/01/26APittsburgh76-80 OT
24/01/26ADuke69-90

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Virginia
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL83%
HomeLWWWW89%
AwayWWWWL75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301812
Win %83%89%75%
Points / game80.383.775.2
Allowed / game69.365.575.1
Point differential+11.0+18.2+0.2
Avg total149.7149.2150.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+53%72%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won86% (7)67% (3)100% (4)
Overtime %7%0%17%
Wake Forest
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW52%
HomeLLWWW65%
AwayLLWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291712
Win %52%65%33%
Points / game79.183.373.2
Allowed / game77.177.676.2
Point differential+2.1+5.6-3.0
Avg total156.2160.9149.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%35%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (12)80% (5)29% (7)
Overtime %7%0%17%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke3028293%83.262.5+20.6
2 Virginia3025583%80.369.3+11.0
3 Miami (FL)2923679%82.770.0+12.7
4 North Carolina2923679%80.971.1+9.8
5 Clemson2921872%74.765.9+8.8
6 Louisville2920969%86.072.2+13.7
7 California2920969%77.772.6+5.2
8 SMU Mustangs29191066%85.878.0+7.8
9 NC State30191163%83.575.7+7.8
10 Virginia Tech29181162%78.974.6+4.3
11 Stanford29181162%75.872.4+3.3
12 Florida State29151452%79.777.6+2.1
13 Wake Forest29151452%79.177.1+2.1
14 Syracuse29151452%75.973.9+2.0
15 Notre Dame29131645%74.574.9-0.4
16 Pittsburgh29111838%70.071.2-1.2
17 Georgia Tech29111838%74.077.4-3.4
18 Boston College29101934%67.270.7-3.4
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Virginia03204375
Wake Forest02404670
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