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Vilkaviskis vs Kedainiai BC Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 13:00
Projected 85-77
Projected total 162.2
Final 97-80
26-23 18-16 29-21 24-20
Position#11
Record5-8
FormLLWLL
Points / game82.1
Allowed / game86.6
Vilkaviskis 🏆
Lithuania
Vs
76%
24%
■ VILK 76%■ KEDA 24%
Pythia win probability
Kedainiai BC
Lithuania
Position#14
Record4-9
FormWLLLL
Points / game76.5
Allowed / game84.1
LithuaniaNKLRound 14· Vilkavi
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Vilkaviskis will host Kedainiai BC on 14 November 2026 in the NKL, and the Pythia model names Vilkaviskis the clear favourite, assigning them a 76% chance of victory largely because of their 5-8 record and 82.1 points per game compared with Kedainiai's 4-9 record and 76.5 points per game; Vilkaviskis also outscored opponents 86.6 to 84.1 on the season. Vilkaviskis have won 4 of 6 home games, averaging 83.2 points and allowing 81.3, while Kedainiai have won only 1 of 5 road games, scoring 77.6 and conceding 92.8; both teams have struggled in their last five outings, each winning only one. The teams have met once before, with the most recent game ending 85-77 in favour of Vilkaviskis. Pythia projects a 85-77 score, a total of 162.2, and gives Vilkaviskis a 56% chance to cover the home line of -6.5; the over on 163.5 carries a 46% probability, and there is a 4% chance of overtime. The next game will see Vilkaviskis try to extend their home advantage against a Kedainiai side that has struggled on the road.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vilkaviskis winWon
75.8%fair 1.32
Best odds1.35
Implied73.9%
Edge+1.8pp
Kedainiai BC winLost
24.2%fair 4.13
Best odds3.52
Implied26.1%
Edge-1.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VilkaviskisLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVilkaviskis
Date
Competition
Silute
#7
L
81-97
81
97
-16
73avg 73
H15/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
L
70-94
70
94
-24
58avg 73
A17/10
NKL
Omega-Tauras
#9
W
82-73
82
73
+9
80avg 73
H22/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
L
81-87
81
87
-6
72avg 73
A24/10
NKL
Rytas 2
#18
W
74-72
74
72
+2
60avg 73
H29/10
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#10
L
73-91
73
91
-18
54avg 73
A31/10
NKL
Vytis VDU
#5
L
81-107
81
107
-26
no box
H03/11
NKL
Ukmerges Stekas
#13
W
97-74
97
74
+23
no box
H05/11
NKL
Suduva-Mantinga
#4
L
60-80
60
80
-20
no box
A07/11
NKL
Mazeikiai
#15
L
96-103 OT
96
103
-7
no box
A12/11
NKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-24
28-26
15-31
19-16
21-21
21-15
12-35
16-23
20-24
24-18
20-16
18-15
17-14
23-29
18-17
23-27
17-19
16-21
23-13
18-19
20-21
23-22
15-21
15-27
23-21
21-24
19-35
18-27
24-12
29-15
22-22
22-25
17-19
20-18
9-21
14-22
20-9
22-24
23-29
20-23
167.3Avg total
79.5Scored
87.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)82.186.6168.7-4.538%
Season at home (6)83.281.3164.5+1.867%
Season away (7)81.191.1172.3-10.014%
Last 10 (10)79.587.8167.3-8.330%
Last 5 (5)81.491.0172.4-9.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)74.587.5162.0-12.918%
vs Similar (9)84.087.2171.2-3.222%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)88.980.0168.9+8.990%
This opponent (Kedainiai BC) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Kedainiai BCLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBC
Date
Competition
Telsiai
#1
L
61-73
61
73
-12
55avg 71
H10/10
NKL
Mazeikiai
#15
W
92-85
92
85
+7
88avg 71
H15/10
NKL
Jurbarkas
#2
L
72-81
72
81
-9
65avg 71
A17/10
NKL
Rytas 2
#18
W
83-69
83
69
+14
81avg 71
H22/10
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#10
L
62-75
62
75
-13
71avg 71
H24/10
NKL
Ukmerges Stekas
#13
W
97-76
97
76
+21
100avg 71
H29/10
NKL
Suduva-Mantinga
#4
L
64-98
64
98
-34
52avg 71
A31/10
NKL
Kauno Atletas
#17
L
66-80
66
80
-14
no box
H05/11
NKL
Vytis VDU
#5
L
90-98
90
98
-8
no box
A07/11
NKL
Neptunas 2
#6
L
71-77
71
77
-6
no box
H12/11
NKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-19
14-17
13-22
10-15
21-16
25-21
28-25
18-23
13-16
17-19
23-20
19-26
20-20
14-16
23-12
26-21
12-16
15-19
15-18
20-22
32-20
27-14
20-19
18-23
9-27
23-26
14-23
18-22
15-25
17-22
20-16
14-17
19-21
23-25
24-22
24-30
12-19
11-18
24-18
24-22
157.0Avg total
75.8Scored
81.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)76.584.1160.6-7.531%
Season at home (8)75.978.6154.5-2.838%
Season away (5)77.692.8170.4-15.220%
Last 10 (10)75.881.2157.0-5.430%
Last 5 (5)77.685.8163.4-8.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)73.087.0160.0-14.011%
vs Similar (3)90.776.7167.3+14.0100%
vs Weaker (1)66.080.0146.0-14.00%
This opponent (Vilkaviskis) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 158.5Actual: Over 158.5
Over 158.5
58.1%
@ 1.64+1.2pp
Under 158.5
41.9%
@ 2.17-1.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.64
1xBet
1.58
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
1xBet
1.96
Over/Under 163.75 · main lineActual: Over 163.75
Over 163.75
no forecast
@ 1.79
Under 163.75
no forecast
@ 1.79
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.79
Under
1xBet
1.79
Over/Under 168.5Actual: Over 168.5
Over 168.5
34.4%
Under 168.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Vilkaviskis total 81Actual: Vilkaviskis over 81
Over 81
66.1%
Under 81
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilkaviskis total 85 · main lineActual: Vilkaviskis over 85
Over 85
50.1%
@ 1.73+0.4pp
Under 85
49.9%
@ 1.71-0.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.73
Under
1xBet
1.71
Vilkaviskis total 89Actual: Vilkaviskis over 89
Over 89
34.1%
Under 89
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kedainiai BC total 73.5Actual: Kedainiai BC over 73.5
Over 73.5
63.2%
@ 1.39+0.5pp
Under 73.5
36.8%
@ 2.34-0.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.39
Under
1xBet
2.34
Kedainiai BC total 77.5 · main lineActual: Kedainiai BC over 77.5
Over 77.5
47.9%
@ 1.82-1.8pp
Under 77.5
52.1%
@ 1.82+1.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.75
Under
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.70
Kedainiai BC total 81.5Actual: Kedainiai BC under 81.5
Over 81.5
33.0%
@ 2.43-3.0pp
Under 81.5
67.0%
@ 1.37+3.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.43
Under
1xBet
1.37

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Vilkaviskis -9.5Actual: Vilkaviskis -9.5
VILK -9.5
44.4%
@ 2.19+4.1pp
KEDA +9.5
55.6%
@ 1.48-4.1pp
Best 5 market prices
VILK
1xBet
2.19
KEDA
1xBet
1.48
Spread Vilkaviskis -6.5 · main lineActual: Vilkaviskis -6.5
VILK -6.5
55.6%
@ 1.86+5.3pp
KEDA +6.5
44.4%
@ 1.88-5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
VILK
Pinnacle
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
SBO
1.84
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.78
KEDA
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Spread Vilkaviskis -3.5Actual: Vilkaviskis -3.5
VILK -3.5
66.7%
@ 1.44+5.2pp
KEDA +3.5
33.3%
@ 2.30-5.2pp
Best 5 market prices
VILK
1xBet
1.44
KEDA
1xBet
2.30

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +1.4+1.4Q1: -2.2-2.2Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: -6.4-6.4Q3: +0.9+0.9Q4Q4: -4.1-4.1Q4: -3.0-3.0
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +1.4+1.4Q1: -2.2-2.2Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: -6.4-6.4Q3: +0.9+0.9Q4Q4: -4.1-4.1Q4: -3.0-3.0
VilkaviskisKedainiai BC
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VilkaviskisLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Silute
#7
L
47-50
47
50
-3
H15/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A17/10
NKL
Omega-Tauras
#9
W
44-42
44
42
+2
H22/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A24/10
NKL
Rytas 2
#18
L
33-40
33
40
-7
H29/10
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#10
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A31/10
NKL
Vytis VDU
#5
L
44-45
44
45
-1
H03/11
NKL
Ukmerges Stekas
#13
W
53-27
53
27
+26
H05/11
NKL
Suduva-Mantinga
#4
D
37-37
37
37
+0
A07/11
NKL
Mazeikiai
#15
W
42-33
42
33
+9
A12/11
NKL
82.1Avg total
42.5Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 82.5
Last 30 (30)43.441.685.0+1.857%60%
Last 30 at home (13)43.940.384.2+3.662%62%
Last 30 away (17)43.042.585.5+0.553%59%
Last 10 (10)42.539.682.1+2.940%50%
Last 5 (5)43.837.080.8+6.840%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)40.541.882.4-1.327%55%
vs Similar (9)45.144.789.8+0.456%67%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)45.038.583.5+6.590%60%
This opponent (Kedainiai BC) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Kedainiai BCLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Telsiai
#1
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H10/10
NKL
Mazeikiai
#15
W
46-37
46
37
+9
H15/10
NKL
Jurbarkas
#2
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A17/10
NKL
Rytas 2
#18
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H22/10
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#10
L
27-35
27
35
-8
H24/10
NKL
Ukmerges Stekas
#13
W
59-34
59
34
+25
H29/10
NKL
Suduva-Mantinga
#4
L
32-53
32
53
-21
A31/10
NKL
Kauno Atletas
#17
L
32-47
32
47
-15
H05/11
NKL
Vytis VDU
#5
L
42-46
42
46
-4
A07/11
NKL
Neptunas 2
#6
L
23-37
23
37
-14
H12/11
NKL
75.9Avg total
36.3Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 82.5
Last 30 (13)37.240.978.1-3.831%46%
Last 30 at home (8)37.038.675.6-1.638%38%
Last 30 away (5)37.444.682.0-7.220%60%
Last 10 (10)36.339.675.9-3.330%40%
Last 5 (5)37.643.481.0-5.820%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)34.742.076.7-7.322%44%
vs Similar (3)46.335.782.0+10.767%67%
vs Weaker (1)32.047.079.0-15.00%0%
This opponent (Vilkaviskis) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Vilkaviskis win
VILK win
no forecast
@ 1.47
KEDA win
no forecast
@ 2.72
1st half Spread Vilkaviskis -3.5 · main lineActual: Vilkaviskis -3.5
VILK -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
KEDA +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 82.5 · main lineActual: Over 82.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Vilkaviskis 1st half total 41.5 · main lineActual: Vilkaviskis over 41.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Kedainiai BC 1st half total 38.5 · main lineActual: Kedainiai BC over 38.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.78
1st half Spread Vilkaviskis -2.5Actual: Vilkaviskis -2.5
VILK -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
KEDA +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half Over/Under 80.5Actual: Over 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Vilkaviskis (regulation)
VILK
no forecast
@ 1.45
Draw
no forecast
@ 16.00
KEDA
no forecast
@ 2.85

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
VILK win + total 163.5
🔒 Pro
KEDA win + total 163.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: VILK leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Vilkaviskis (regulation)73.4%1.35
1xBet
1.35		----+9.4ppWon
Vilkaviskis over 77.577.2%1.24
1xBet
1.24		----+6.6ppWon
Vilkaviskis over 79.570.9%1.36
1xBet
1.36		----+6.2ppWon
Vilkaviskis over 78.574.2%1.30
1xBet
1.30		----+6.2ppWon
Overtime: no95.8%1.02
Betano
1.02		----+4.3ppWon
Kedainiai BC under 83.573.5%1.27
1xBet
1.27		----+3.6ppWon
Kedainiai BC under 82.570.4%1.32
1xBet
1.32		----+3.4ppWon
Vilkaviskis win75.8%1.29
Bet365
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Pinnacle
1.24		+1.8ppWon
Kedainiai BC over 71.570.4%1.28
1xBet
1.28		----+1.2ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Vilkaviskistheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Vilkaviskis: 80.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀64%
🏀🏀🏀22%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.6 pts a game · 64% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers17.4 pts a game · 22% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.0 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.2 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.825.8
56.3%
54.5%51.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.65.8
26.9%
31.3%17.4
🏀 Free throws18.211.0
60.4%
67.1%11.0
They take 67.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Kedainiai BCtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Kedainiai BC: 76.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.3 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.2 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.420.6
53.6%
54.5%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.77.1
28.7%
31.3%21.3
🏀 Free throws22.914.0
61.1%
67.1%14.0
They take 63.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Vilkaviskis
LLWLLWLWLL
Kedainiai BC
LLLLWLWLWL
#11
League position
#14
-5.7
Net rating
-6.6
90.8
Offensive rating
84.1
96.5
Defensive rating
90.7
51.2%
Effective FG%
49.5%
52.4%
Opp. effective FG%
48.7%
15.2%
Turnover %
16.8%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.36
26.9%
3-point %
28.7%
48.4%
Assist %
67.5%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence90.8 · 84.1Defence96.5 · 90.7Shooting51.2% · 49.5%3-point %26.9% · 28.7%Ball care15.2% · 16.8%Free throws0.27 · 0.36Form (last 10/10)30% · 30%
■ Vilkaviskis   ■ Kedainiai BC
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Vilkaviskis wins
0
Kedainiai BC wins
No previous meetings.
Vilkaviskislast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AMazeikiai96-103 OT
07/11/26ASuduva-Mantinga60-80
05/11/26HUkmerges Stekas97-74
03/11/26HVytis VDU81-107
31/10/26APlunges Olimpas73-91
29/10/26HRytas 274-72
24/10/26ABC Olimpas Palanga81-87
22/10/26HOmega-Tauras82-73
17/10/26ATelsiai70-94
15/10/26HSilute81-97
Kedainiai BClast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HNeptunas 271-77
07/11/26AVytis VDU90-98
05/11/26HKauno Atletas66-80
31/10/26ASuduva-Mantinga64-98
29/10/26HUkmerges Stekas97-76
24/10/26HPlunges Olimpas62-75
22/10/26HRytas 283-69
17/10/26AJurbarkas72-81
15/10/26HMazeikiai92-85
10/10/26HTelsiai61-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Vilkaviskis
NKL 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL38%
HomeLWWLW67%
AwayLLLLL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1367
Win %38%67%14%
Points / game82.183.281.1
Allowed / game86.681.391.1
Point differential-4.5+1.8-10.0
Avg total168.7164.5172.3
Over 163.7562%50%71%
Win by 10+15%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %8%0%14%
Kedainiai BC
NKL 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL31%
HomeWLWLL38%
AwayLWLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1385
Win %31%38%20%
Points / game76.575.977.6
Allowed / game84.178.692.8
Point differential-7.5-2.8-15.2
Avg total160.6154.5170.4
Over 163.7538%38%40%
Win by 10+23%25%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Telsiai1312192%90.573.6+16.9
2 Jurbarkas1211192%90.478.0+12.4
3 BC Olimpas Palanga1310377%94.884.9+9.9
4 Suduva-Mantinga129375%91.477.7+13.8
5 Vytis VDU118373%97.490.4+7.0
6 Neptunas 2139469%78.174.7+3.4
7 Silute128467%84.382.2+2.2
8 Alytaus Patriotai148657%83.884.9-1.1
9 Omega-Tauras137654%90.586.2+4.2
10 Plunges Olimpas137654%82.579.9+2.6
11 Zalgiris Kaunas 2125742%94.296.8-2.7
12 Vilkaviskis135838%82.186.6-4.5
13 Kedainiai BC134931%76.584.1-7.5
14 Ukmerges Stekas134931%77.687.9-10.3
15 Mazeikiai1431121%78.988.9-10.0
16 Kretinga1321115%81.590.7-9.2
17 Kauno Atletas1321115%79.092.8-13.8
18 Rytas 2131128%77.086.4-9.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Vilkaviskis2618292497
Kedainiai BC2316212080
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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