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Vilkaviskis vs Ukmerges Stekas Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 05 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 16:00
Projected 88-79
Projected total 167.2
Final 97-74
24-12 29-15 22-22 22-25
Position#12
Record4-6
FormWLWLL
Points / game81.4
Allowed / game86.9
Vilkaviskis 🏆
Lithuania
Vs
80%
20%
■ VILK 80%■ UKME 20%
Pythia win probability
Ukmerges Stekas
Lithuania
Position#14
Record3-7
FormLLWLL
Points / game80.1
Allowed / game90.4
LithuaniaNKLRound 11· Vilkavi
Other2026-27
Meetings · Vilkaviskis v Ukmerges Stekas
05 Nov 2026
VILK97
UKME74
29 Jan 2026
VILK78
UKME63
16 Jan 2025
VILK89
UKME82
05 Oct 2023
VILK88
UKME60
11 Feb 2023
VILK80
UKME64
06 Oct 2022
VILK59
UKME62
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Vilkaviskis will host Ukmerges Stekas on 5 November 2026 in the NKL, and the Pythia model names Vilkaviskis the favourite with an 81% chance of victory, reflecting their 4-5 record and 81.4 points per game compared to Ukmerges Stekas' 3-6 record and 81.9 points per game; the model also notes Vilkaviskis' 3-1 home record, 80.2 points per game, and 76.8 allowed, versus Ukmerges Stekas' 1-3 road record, 79.2 points per game, and 94.0 allowed. Vilkaviskis' last five games include a win over Rytas 74-72 at home and losses to Plunges Olimpas 73-91 and BC Olimpas Palanga 81-87, while Ukmerges Stekas' recent outings feature a home win over Mazeikiai 74-70 and defeats to Kedainiai BC 76-97 and Telsiai 70-104. In their ten meetings Vilkaviskis has won seven, most recently defeating Ukmerges Stekas 78-63 on 29 January 2026. Pythia projects a 88-78 score, 165.6 total points, and an 81% probability that Vilkaviskis will win; the model assigns a 19% chance to Ukmerges Stekas and a 4% chance of overtime. The final line will likely see Vilkaviskis maintain their advantage, with the game concluding in a decisive home victory.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vilkaviskis winWon
80.0%fair 1.25
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Ukmerges Stekas winLost
20.0%fair 4.99
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VilkaviskisLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVilkaviskis
Date
Competition
Zalgiris Kaunas 2
#11
L
104-107
104
107
-3
95avg 73
A01/10
NKL
Kretinga
#15
W
84-65
84
65
+19
74avg 73
H03/10
NKL
Kauno Atletas
#17
W
84-76
84
76
+8
74avg 73
A08/10
NKL
Silute
#5
L
81-97
81
97
-16
73avg 73
H15/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
L
70-94
70
94
-24
58avg 73
A17/10
NKL
Omega-Tauras
#8
W
82-73
82
73
+9
80avg 73
H22/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
L
81-87
81
87
-6
72avg 73
A24/10
NKL
Rytas 2
#18
W
74-72
74
72
+2
60avg 73
H29/10
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#9
L
73-91
73
91
-18
54avg 73
A31/10
NKL
Vytis VDU
#6
L
81-107
81
107
-26
no box
H03/11
NKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-29
33-28
21-28
27-22
22-27
21-13
17-12
24-13
17-18
29-19
24-27
14-12
19-24
28-26
15-31
19-16
21-21
21-15
12-35
16-23
20-24
24-18
20-16
18-15
17-14
23-29
18-17
23-27
17-19
16-21
23-13
18-19
20-21
23-22
15-21
15-27
23-21
21-24
19-35
18-27
168.3Avg total
81.4Scored
86.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)81.486.9168.3-5.540%
Season at home (5)80.482.8163.2-2.460%
Season away (5)82.491.0173.4-8.620%
Last 10 (10)81.486.9168.3-5.540%
Last 5 (5)78.286.0164.2-7.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)76.088.2164.2-12.220%
vs Similar (11)81.883.8165.6-2.027%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)86.076.2162.2+9.8100%
This opponent (Ukmerges Stekas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Ukmerges StekasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormStekas
Date
Competition
Vytis VDU
#6
L
89-90 OT
89
90
-1
81avg 72
H01/10
NKL
Silute
#5
L
72-80
72
80
-8
61avg 72
A03/10
NKL
Zalgiris Kaunas 2
#11
W
108-87
108
87
+21
104avg 72
H08/10
NKL
Kretinga
#15
W
99-95
99
95
+4
97avg 72
A10/10
NKL
Omega-Tauras
#8
L
73-87
73
87
-14
55avg 72
H15/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
L
76-107
76
107
-31
67avg 72
H17/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
L
70-104
70
104
-34
62avg 72
A22/10
NKL
Mazeikiai
#16
W
74-70
74
70
+4
71avg 72
H24/10
NKL
Kedainiai BC
#13
L
76-97
76
97
-21
62avg 72
A29/10
NKL
Neptunas 2
#7
L
64-87
64
87
-23
no box
H03/11
NKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-22
21-17
17-23
17-18
21-17
17-21
19-17
15-25
25-23
31-20
30-28
22-16
19-25
22-20
27-20
31-30
25-27
18-25
14-16
16-19
13-30
27-27
21-26
15-24
16-31
20-27
18-21
16-25
14-19
17-17
18-17
25-17
20-32
14-27
19-20
23-18
9-20
21-23
16-21
18-23
170.5Avg total
80.1Scored
90.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)80.190.4170.5-10.330%
Season at home (6)80.788.0168.7-7.333%
Season away (4)79.294.0173.2-14.825%
Last 10 (10)80.190.4170.5-10.330%
Last 5 (5)72.093.0165.0-21.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)78.489.8168.2-11.420%
vs Similar (5)80.689.2169.8-8.640%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Vilkaviskis) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 162Actual: Over 162
Over 162
62.0%
Under 162
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 167Actual: Over 167
Over 167
49.7%
Under 167
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 172Actual: Under 172
Over 172
37.5%
Under 172
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Vilkaviskis total 80Actual: Vilkaviskis over 80
Over 80
80.5%
Under 80
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilkaviskis total 84Actual: Vilkaviskis over 84
Over 84
67.4%
Under 84
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilkaviskis total 88Actual: Vilkaviskis over 88
Over 88
51.4%
Under 88
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ukmerges Stekas total 78.5Actual: Ukmerges Stekas under 78.5
Over 78.5
50.5%
Under 78.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ukmerges Stekas total 82.5Actual: Ukmerges Stekas under 82.5
Over 82.5
35.4%
Under 82.5
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ukmerges Stekas total 86.5Actual: Ukmerges Stekas under 86.5
Over 86.5
22.5%
Under 86.5
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Vilkaviskis -3Actual: Vilkaviskis -3
VILK -3
73.7%
UKME +3
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
VILK
No market prices yet.
UKME
No market prices yet.
Spread Vilkaviskis 0Actual: Vilkaviskis 0
VILK 0
80.0%
UKME 0
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
VILK
No market prices yet.
UKME
No market prices yet.
Spread Vilkaviskis +3Actual: Vilkaviskis +3
VILK +3
85.8%
UKME -3
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
VILK
No market prices yet.
UKME
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: -5.9-5.9Q2Q2: +2.4+2.4Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: -5.1-5.1Q3: -1.0-1.0Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: -1.7-1.7
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: -5.9-5.9Q2Q2: +2.4+2.4Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: -5.1-5.1Q3: -1.0-1.0Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: -1.7-1.7
VilkaviskisUkmerges Stekas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VilkaviskisLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Zalgiris Kaunas 2
#11
L
56-57
56
57
-1
A01/10
NKL
Kretinga
#15
W
43-40
43
40
+3
H03/10
NKL
Kauno Atletas
#17
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A08/10
NKL
Silute
#5
L
47-50
47
50
-3
H15/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A17/10
NKL
Omega-Tauras
#8
W
44-42
44
42
+2
H22/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A24/10
NKL
Rytas 2
#18
L
33-40
33
40
-7
H29/10
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#9
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A31/10
NKL
Vytis VDU
#6
L
44-45
44
45
-1
H03/11
NKL
87.1Avg total
43.8Scored
43.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.942.084.9+0.957%-
Last 30 at home (14)43.040.483.4+2.664%-
Last 30 away (16)42.843.486.2-0.650%-
Last 10 (10)43.843.387.1+0.540%-
Last 5 (5)40.842.683.4-1.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)40.942.383.2-1.430%-
vs Similar (11)43.543.787.3-0.255%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)44.339.784.0+4.789%-
This opponent (Ukmerges Stekas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Ukmerges StekasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vytis VDU
#6
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H01/10
NKL
Silute
#5
D
38-38
38
38
+0
A03/10
NKL
Zalgiris Kaunas 2
#11
W
56-43
56
43
+13
H08/10
NKL
Kretinga
#15
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A10/10
NKL
Omega-Tauras
#8
L
43-52
43
52
-9
H15/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
L
40-57
40
57
-17
H17/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
L
36-58
36
58
-22
A22/10
NKL
Mazeikiai
#16
L
31-36
31
36
-5
H24/10
NKL
Kedainiai BC
#13
L
34-59
34
59
-25
A29/10
NKL
Neptunas 2
#7
L
30-43
30
43
-13
H03/11
NKL
86.5Avg total
39.5Scored
47.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.045.682.6-8.613%-
Last 30 at home (17)36.244.480.5-8.218%-
Last 30 away (13)38.147.385.4-9.28%-
Last 10 (10)39.547.086.5-7.520%-
Last 5 (5)34.250.684.8-16.40%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)36.945.282.1-8.416%-
vs Similar (5)37.647.685.2-10.00%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Vilkaviskis) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Vilkaviskistheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Vilkaviskis: 80.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀64%
🏀🏀🏀22%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.6 pts a game · 64% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers17.4 pts a game · 22% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.0 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.2 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.825.8
56.3%
54.5%51.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.65.8
26.9%
31.3%17.4
🏀 Free throws18.211.0
60.4%
67.1%11.0
They take 67.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Ukmerges Stekastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Ukmerges Stekas: 84.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.2 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.521.5
51.8%
54.5%43.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.29.3
31.8%
31.3%27.9
🏀 Free throws19.413.1
67.5%
67.1%13.1
They take 70.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Vilkaviskis
LLWLWLLWWL
Ukmerges Stekas
LLWLLLWWLL
#12
League position
#14
-5.7
Net rating
-9.0
90.8
Offensive rating
90.1
96.5
Defensive rating
99.1
51.2%
Effective FG%
50.1%
52.4%
Opp. effective FG%
56.6%
15.2%
Turnover %
15.0%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.27
26.9%
3-point %
31.8%
48.4%
Assist %
64.6%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence90.8 · 90.1Defence96.5 · 99.1Shooting51.2% · 50.1%3-point %26.9% · 31.8%Ball care15.2% · 15.0%Free throws0.27 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)40% · 30%
■ Vilkaviskis   ■ Ukmerges Stekas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Vilkaviskis wins
3
Ukmerges Stekas wins
DateGameScore
29/01/26Vilkaviskis v Ukmerges Stekas78-63
02/10/25Ukmerges Stekas v Vilkaviskis72-94
16/01/25Vilkaviskis v Ukmerges Stekas89-82
31/10/24Ukmerges Stekas v Vilkaviskis69-77
12/12/23Ukmerges Stekas v Vilkaviskis99-85
05/10/23Vilkaviskis v Ukmerges Stekas88-60
04/03/23Ukmerges Stekas v Vilkaviskis88-84
11/02/23Vilkaviskis v Ukmerges Stekas80-64
12/01/23Ukmerges Stekas v Vilkaviskis87-90
06/10/22Vilkaviskis v Ukmerges Stekas59-62
Vilkaviskislast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26HVytis VDU81-107
31/10/26APlunges Olimpas73-91
29/10/26HRytas 274-72
24/10/26ABC Olimpas Palanga81-87
22/10/26HOmega-Tauras82-73
17/10/26ATelsiai70-94
15/10/26HSilute81-97
08/10/26AKauno Atletas84-76
03/10/26HKretinga84-65
01/10/26AZalgiris Kaunas 2104-107
Ukmerges Stekaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26HNeptunas 264-87
29/10/26AKedainiai BC76-97
24/10/26HMazeikiai74-70
22/10/26ATelsiai70-104
17/10/26HBC Olimpas Palanga76-107
15/10/26HOmega-Tauras73-87
10/10/26AKretinga99-95
08/10/26HZalgiris Kaunas 2108-87
03/10/26ASilute72-80
01/10/26HVytis VDU89-90 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Vilkaviskis
NKL 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL40%
HomeWLWWL60%
AwayLWLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %40%60%20%
Points / game81.480.482.4
Allowed / game86.982.891.0
Point differential-5.5-2.4-8.6
Avg total168.3163.2173.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%20%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Ukmerges Stekas
NKL 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL30%
HomeWLLWL33%
AwayLWLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1064
Win %30%33%25%
Points / game80.180.779.2
Allowed / game90.488.094.0
Point differential-10.3-7.3-14.8
Avg total170.5168.7173.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%17%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %10%17%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Telsiai10100100%88.272.5+15.7
2 Jurbarkas98189%88.174.1+14.0
3 BC Olimpas Palanga108280%93.080.6+12.4
4 Silute97278%84.378.0+6.3
5 Neptunas 2107370%78.073.2+4.8
6 Suduva-Mantinga96367%92.879.9+12.9
7 Vytis VDU85362%95.691.1+4.5
8 Omega-Tauras106460%87.082.4+4.6
9 Plunges Olimpas106460%81.478.1+3.3
10 Alytaus Patriotai105550%86.188.2-2.1
11 Zalgiris Kaunas 2104640%95.797.1-1.4
12 Vilkaviskis104640%81.486.9-5.5
13 Kedainiai BC104640%76.883.8-7.0
14 Ukmerges Stekas103730%80.190.4-10.3
15 Kretinga102820%79.788.1-8.4
16 Mazeikiai102820%76.586.5-10.0
17 Rytas 2100100%75.187.3-12.2
18 Kauno Atletas9090%77.396.7-19.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Vilkaviskis2429222297
Ukmerges Stekas1215222574
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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