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Mazeikiai vs Vilkaviskis Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 16:00
Projected 81-85
Projected total 166.3
Final 103-96 (OT)
9-20 24-22 29-23 23-20 18-11
Position#15
Record2-10
FormLLWLL
Points / game76.8
Allowed / game88.7
Vs
38%
62%
■ MAZ 38%■ VILK 62%
Pythia win probability
Position#12
Record5-7
FormWLLWL
Points / game80.9
Allowed / game85.2
LithuaniaNKLRound 13· Telsiu sporto arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · Mazeikiai v Vilkaviskis
12 Nov 2026
MAZ103
VILK96
16 Oct 2025
MAZ91
VILK85
01 Dec 2022
MAZ82
VILK64
26 Mar 2022
MAZ77
VILK75
20 Mar 2022
MAZ124
VILK113
02 Dec 2021
MAZ96
VILK90
07 Nov 2020
MAZ97
VILK104
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

On 12 November 2026 the NKL will see Mazeikiai host Vilkaviskis, with the model favouring Vilkaviskis at 62% to 38% for Mazeikiai, a game the Pythia expects to finish 85-81. Mazeikiai enter with a 2-10 record, averaging 76.8 points and conceding 88.7, and a 1-5 home record of 74.7 to 90.5, while Vilkaviskis sit 5-7 overall, 80.9 to 85.2, and 1-5 on the road, 78.7 to 89.2. The last five games for Mazeikiai were one win and four losses, including a 97-88 victory over Kauno Atletas, whereas Vilkaviskis have two wins and three losses, highlighted by a 97-74 win over Ukmerges Stekas. In their ten meetings Vilkaviskis have won three times, most recently beating Mazeikiai 91-67 on 28 February 2026. The Pythia projects a total of 165.8 points, with a spread line of 8.0 favouring Mazeikiai and a 65% chance that Mazeikiai will cover, and an over line of 163.5 with a 55% probability of the over; the game has a 5% chance of overtime. The final score projected by the model, 81-85, reflects the slight edge Vilkaviskis holds in both offensive and defensive averages.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mazeikiai winWon
37.9%fair 2.64
Best odds3.38
Implied27.2%
Edge+10.8pp
Vilkaviskis winLost
62.1%fair 1.61
Best odds1.37
Implied72.8%
Edge-10.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 18:15 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MazeikiaiLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMazeikiai
Date
Competition
Telsiai
#1
L
72-83
72
83
-11
67avg 73
A08/10
NKL
Jurbarkas
#2
L
62-91
62
91
-29
47avg 73
H10/10
NKL
Kedainiai BC
#13
L
85-92
85
92
-7
74avg 73
A15/10
NKL
Neptunas 2
#6
L
77-90
77
90
-13
67avg 73
H17/10
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#9
L
72-80
72
80
-8
57avg 73
H22/10
NKL
Ukmerges Stekas
#14
L
70-74
70
74
-4
55avg 73
A24/10
NKL
Suduva-Mantinga
#4
L
85-109
85
109
-24
72avg 73
H29/10
NKL
Kauno Atletas
#17
W
97-88
97
88
+9
89avg 73
A31/10
NKL
Vytis VDU
#5
L
77-101
77
101
-24
no box
H05/11
NKL
Silute
#7
L
79-98
79
98
-19
no box
A07/11
NKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-24
17-21
14-19
25-19
13-27
13-12
21-24
15-28
16-21
21-25
25-28
23-18
24-27
24-25
16-23
13-15
21-22
16-17
10-24
25-17
19-14
17-17
17-18
17-25
13-28
22-26
26-35
24-20
26-24
20-15
32-24
19-25
21-26
21-26
20-17
15-32
17-22
18-27
22-24
22-25
168.2Avg total
77.6Scored
90.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)76.888.7165.4-11.917%
Season at home (6)74.790.5165.2-15.817%
Season away (6)78.886.8165.7-8.017%
Last 10 (10)77.690.6168.2-13.010%
Last 5 (5)81.694.0175.6-12.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)73.893.0166.8-19.20%
vs Similar (19)83.686.1169.7-2.442%
vs Weaker (2)87.066.5153.5+20.5100%
This opponent (Vilkaviskis) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VilkaviskisLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVilkaviskis
Date
Competition
Kauno Atletas
#17
W
84-76
84
76
+8
74avg 73
A08/10
NKL
Silute
#7
L
81-97
81
97
-16
73avg 73
H15/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
L
70-94
70
94
-24
58avg 73
A17/10
NKL
Omega-Tauras
#8
W
82-73
82
73
+9
80avg 73
H22/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
L
81-87
81
87
-6
72avg 73
A24/10
NKL
Rytas 2
#18
W
74-72
74
72
+2
60avg 73
H29/10
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#9
L
73-91
73
91
-18
54avg 73
A31/10
NKL
Vytis VDU
#5
L
81-107
81
107
-26
no box
H03/11
NKL
Ukmerges Stekas
#14
W
97-74
97
74
+23
no box
H05/11
NKL
Suduva-Mantinga
#4
L
60-80
60
80
-20
no box
A07/11
NKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-18
29-19
24-27
14-12
19-24
28-26
15-31
19-16
21-21
21-15
12-35
16-23
20-24
24-18
20-16
18-15
17-14
23-29
18-17
23-27
17-19
16-21
23-13
18-19
20-21
23-22
15-21
15-27
23-21
21-24
19-35
18-27
24-12
29-15
22-22
22-25
17-19
20-18
9-21
14-22
163.4Avg total
78.3Scored
85.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)80.985.2166.2-4.342%
Season at home (6)83.281.3164.5+1.867%
Season away (6)78.789.2167.8-10.517%
Last 10 (10)78.385.1163.4-6.840%
Last 5 (5)77.084.8161.8-7.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)74.587.5162.0-12.918%
vs Similar (10)83.385.1168.4-1.830%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)88.177.4165.6+10.7100%
This opponent (Mazeikiai) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 158.5Actual: Over 158.5
Over 158.5
67.3%
Under 158.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 163.75 · main lineActual: Over 163.75
Over 163.75
no forecast
@ 1.79
Under 163.75
no forecast
@ 1.79
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.79
Under
1xBet
1.79
Over/Under 168.5Actual: Over 168.5
Over 168.5
43.7%
Under 168.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Mazeikiai total 73.5Actual: Mazeikiai over 73.5
Over 73.5
77.5%
@ 1.28+8.4pp
Under 73.5
22.5%
@ 2.86-8.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.28
Under
1xBet
2.86
Mazeikiai total 77.5 · main lineActual: Mazeikiai over 77.5
Over 77.5
64.2%
@ 1.80+10.9pp
Under 77.5
35.8%
@ 1.97-10.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.54
Under
1xBet
1.97
Betano
1.83
Mazeikiai total 81.5Actual: Mazeikiai over 81.5
Over 81.5
49.0%
@ 2.03+6.4pp
Under 81.5
51.0%
@ 1.51-6.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.03
Under
1xBet
1.51
Vilkaviskis total 82Actual: Vilkaviskis over 82
Over 82
61.3%
Under 82
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilkaviskis total 86 · main lineActual: Vilkaviskis over 86
Over 86
45.2%
@ 1.73-4.5pp
Under 86
54.8%
@ 1.71+4.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.73
Under
1xBet
1.71
Vilkaviskis total 90Actual: Vilkaviskis over 90
Over 90
30.0%
Under 90
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Mazeikiai +3.5Actual: Mazeikiai +3.5
MAZ +3.5
48.4%
@ 2.30+9.9pp
VILK -3.5
51.6%
@ 1.44-9.9pp
Best 5 market prices
MAZ
1xBet
2.30
VILK
1xBet
1.44
Spread Mazeikiai +6.5 · main lineActual: Mazeikiai +6.5
MAZ +6.5
59.9%
@ 1.91+10.7pp
VILK -6.5
40.1%
@ 1.87-10.7pp
Best 5 market prices
MAZ
Betfair
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
VILK
SBO
1.87
Pinnacle
1.84
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.80
Spread Mazeikiai +9.5Actual: Mazeikiai +9.5
MAZ +9.5
70.1%
@ 1.61+13.6pp
VILK -9.5
29.9%
@ 2.19-13.6pp
Best 5 market prices
MAZ
Pinnacle
1.61
1xBet
1.48
VILK
1xBet
2.19
Pinnacle
2.09

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -4.9-4.9Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q3: -6.1-6.1Q4Q4: -2.6-2.6Q4: -3.6-3.6
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -4.9-4.9Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q3: -6.1-6.1Q4Q4: -2.6-2.6Q4: -3.6-3.6
MazeikiaiVilkaviskis
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MazeikiaiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Telsiai
#1
L
33-45
33
45
-12
A08/10
NKL
Jurbarkas
#2
L
26-39
26
39
-13
H10/10
NKL
Kedainiai BC
#13
L
37-46
37
46
-9
A15/10
NKL
Neptunas 2
#6
L
48-52
48
52
-4
H17/10
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#9
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H22/10
NKL
Ukmerges Stekas
#14
W
36-31
36
31
+5
A24/10
NKL
Suduva-Mantinga
#4
L
35-54
35
54
-19
H29/10
NKL
Kauno Atletas
#17
W
46-39
46
39
+7
A31/10
NKL
Vytis VDU
#5
L
42-52
42
52
-10
H05/11
NKL
Silute
#7
L
35-49
35
49
-14
A07/11
NKL
82.1Avg total
37.5Scored
44.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 82.5
Last 30 (30)40.044.484.4-4.433%67%
Last 30 at home (15)41.744.786.3-3.033%73%
Last 30 away (15)38.444.182.5-5.733%60%
Last 10 (10)37.544.682.1-7.120%60%
Last 5 (5)38.845.083.8-6.240%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)35.949.285.1-13.30%67%
vs Similar (19)41.643.284.8-1.547%68%
vs Weaker (2)43.534.578.0+9.050%50%
This opponent (Vilkaviskis) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VilkaviskisLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kauno Atletas
#17
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A08/10
NKL
Silute
#7
L
47-50
47
50
-3
H15/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A17/10
NKL
Omega-Tauras
#8
W
44-42
44
42
+2
H22/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A24/10
NKL
Rytas 2
#18
L
33-40
33
40
-7
H29/10
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#9
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A31/10
NKL
Vytis VDU
#5
L
44-45
44
45
-1
H03/11
NKL
Ukmerges Stekas
#14
W
53-27
53
27
+26
H05/11
NKL
Suduva-Mantinga
#4
D
37-37
37
37
+0
A07/11
NKL
82.9Avg total
42.9Scored
40.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 82.5
Last 30 (30)43.341.785.0+1.657%60%
Last 30 at home (14)43.640.183.7+3.664%57%
Last 30 away (16)43.143.186.2-0.150%62%
Last 10 (10)42.940.082.9+2.940%60%
Last 5 (5)42.038.480.4+3.620%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)40.541.882.4-1.327%55%
vs Similar (10)44.643.988.5+0.760%60%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)45.339.184.4+6.289%67%
This opponent (Mazeikiai) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Vilkaviskis win
MAZ win
no forecast
@ 2.65
VILK win
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Mazeikiai +3.5 · main lineActual: Vilkaviskis -3.5
MAZ +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
VILK -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 82.5 · main lineActual: Under 82.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Mazeikiai 1st half total 38.5 · main lineActual: Mazeikiai under 38.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.78
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
Vilkaviskis 1st half total 42.5 · main lineActual: Vilkaviskis under 42.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Mazeikiai +4.5Actual: Vilkaviskis -4.5
MAZ +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
VILK -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
1st half Over/Under 80.5Actual: Under 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Draw after regulation
MAZ
no forecast
@ 2.77
Draw
no forecast
@ 16.00
VILK
no forecast
@ 1.47

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
MAZ win + total 163.5
🔒 Pro
VILK win + total 163.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MAZ leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Mazeikiai +1072.3%1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
----+14.2ppWon
Mazeikiai +9.570.1%1.54
Pinnacle
1.61
1xBet
1.48
---+13.6ppWon
Mazeikiai +10.573.2%1.46
Pinnacle
1.52
1xBet
1.40
---+13.6ppWon
Mazeikiai +11.576.0%1.33
1xBet
1.33
----+9.3ppWon
Mazeikiai over 74.574.4%1.34
1xBet
1.34
----+8.6ppWon
Mazeikiai +12.578.6%1.27
1xBet
1.27
----+8.6ppWon
Mazeikiai over 75.571.2%1.39
1xBet
1.39
----+8.4ppWon
Mazeikiai over 73.577.5%1.28
1xBet
1.28
----+8.4ppWon
Vilkaviskis under 91.574.2%1.30
1xBet
1.30
----+6.3ppLost
Vilkaviskis under 90.571.0%1.35
1xBet
1.35
----+6.1ppLost
Overtime: no94.8%1.03
Betano
1.03
----+3.6ppLost
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Mazeikiaitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Mazeikiai: 76.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.2 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.019.4
49.7%
54.5%38.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.18.6
34.3%
31.3%25.8
🏀 Free throws18.711.9
63.6%
67.1%11.9
They take 64.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Vilkaviskistheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Vilkaviskis: 80.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀64%
🏀🏀🏀22%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.6 pts a game · 64% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers17.4 pts a game · 22% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.0 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.2 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.825.8
56.3%
54.5%51.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.65.8
26.9%
31.3%17.4
🏀 Free throws18.211.0
60.4%
67.1%11.0
They take 67.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Mazeikiai
LLWLLLLLLL
Vilkaviskis
LWLLWLWLLW
#15
League position
#12
-11.3
Net rating
-5.7
87.9
Offensive rating
90.8
99.2
Defensive rating
96.5
50.4%
Effective FG%
51.2%
56.2%
Opp. effective FG%
52.4%
16.7%
Turnover %
15.2%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.27
34.3%
3-point %
26.9%
52.9%
Assist %
48.4%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence87.9 · 90.8Defence99.2 · 96.5Shooting50.4% · 51.2%3-point %34.3% · 26.9%Ball care16.7% · 15.2%Free throws0.29 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)10% · 40%
■ Mazeikiai   ■ Vilkaviskis
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Mazeikiai wins
3
Vilkaviskis wins
Mazeikiailast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26ASilute79-98
05/11/26HVytis VDU77-101
31/10/26AKauno Atletas97-88
29/10/26HSuduva-Mantinga85-109
24/10/26AUkmerges Stekas70-74
22/10/26HPlunges Olimpas72-80
17/10/26HNeptunas 277-90
15/10/26AKedainiai BC85-92
10/10/26HJurbarkas62-91
08/10/26ATelsiai72-83
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26ASuduva-Mantinga60-80
05/11/26HUkmerges Stekas97-74
03/11/26HVytis VDU81-107
31/10/26APlunges Olimpas73-91
29/10/26HRytas 274-72
24/10/26ABC Olimpas Palanga81-87
22/10/26HOmega-Tauras82-73
17/10/26ATelsiai70-94
15/10/26HSilute81-97
08/10/26AKauno Atletas84-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mazeikiai
NKL 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL17%
HomeLLLLL17%
AwayLLLWL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %17%17%17%
Points / game76.874.778.8
Allowed / game88.790.586.8
Point differential-11.9-15.8-8.0
Avg total165.4165.2165.7
Over 163.7550%50%50%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Vilkaviskis
NKL 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL42%
HomeLWWLW67%
AwayWLLLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %42%67%17%
Points / game80.983.278.7
Allowed / game85.281.389.2
Point differential-4.3+1.8-10.5
Avg total166.2164.5167.8
Over 163.7558%50%67%
Win by 10+17%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Telsiai1211192%90.574.2+16.3
2 Jurbarkas1110191%90.277.6+12.5
3 BC Olimpas Palanga1210283%96.284.7+11.6
4 Suduva-Mantinga118373%91.777.6+14.1
5 Vytis VDU107370%96.489.6+6.8
6 Neptunas 2128467%78.275.0+3.2
7 Silute128467%84.382.2+2.2
8 Plunges Olimpas127558%82.678.8+3.8
9 Alytaus Patriotai127558%85.184.7+0.4
10 Omega-Tauras126650%90.087.2+2.8
11 Zalgiris Kaunas 2125742%94.296.8-2.7
12 Vilkaviskis125742%80.985.2-4.3
13 Kedainiai BC124833%77.084.7-7.7
14 Ukmerges Stekas123925%77.889.5-11.8
15 Kretinga1221017%80.289.3-9.2
16 Mazeikiai1221017%76.888.7-11.9
17 Kauno Atletas1221017%79.392.6-13.2
18 Rytas 2121118%77.787.2-9.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Mazeikiai924292318103
Vilkaviskis202223201196
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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