West Virginia faces Mercer on 12 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model rating West Virginia as the favourite at 89% due to a flawless 2-0 record, 91.0 points per game and 49.5 allowed, placing them 5th in the league. Mercer, 2-2 overall, averages 82.5 points and concedes 82.0, sitting 222nd. West Virginia's two home games both ended in victories, 91-53 over Stetson and 91-46 over Niagara, while their last five games show three wins and two losses. Mercer's road record is 1-2, with recent outings including a 97-91 win over Georgia Southern and losses to Davidson and Virginia Tech. The two teams have met once before, with the last meeting recorded as a win for West Virginia. Pythia assigns an 89% chance to a West Virginia win and 11% to a Mercer win, projecting a 81-67 score for a total of 148 points; the over-under line is 148.5 with a 48% chance of the over, and a 2% chance of overtime. The game ends with West Virginia's strong defensive showing, limiting Mercer to 67 points.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
West Virginia winWon
89.1%fair 1.12
Best odds1.02
Implied93.8%
Edge-4.7pp
Mercer winLost
10.9%fair 9.21
Best odds34.00
Implied6.2%
Edge+4.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 14:18 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (West Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 143.5Actual: Under 143.5
Over 143.5
60.6%
@ 1.37-8.5pp
Under 143.5
39.4%
@ 3.20+8.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.31
Under
Bet365
3.20
Betano
2.82
Over/Under 148.5 · main lineActual: Under 148.5
Over 148.5
48.4%
@ 1.83-7.2pp
Under 148.5
51.6%
@ 2.20+7.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Be
1.72
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.60
Under
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.18
WilliamHill
2.00
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Under 153.5
Over 153.5
36.4%
@ 2.12-7.8pp
Under 153.5
63.6%
@ 1.67+7.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.12
Betano
2.05
Under
Betano
1.67
Marathon Be
1.65
Bet365
1.64
📊 3. Team Totals
West Virginia total 84Actual: West Virginia under 84
Over 84
38.0%
Under 84
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
West Virginia total 88 · main lineActual: West Virginia under 88
Over 88
23.4%
@ 1.85-26.6pp
Under 88
76.6%
@ 1.85+26.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
West Virginia total 92Actual: West Virginia under 92
Over 92
12.7%
Under 92
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mercer total 57Actual: Mercer over 57
Over 57
84.4%
Under 57
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mercer total 61 · main linePush
Over 61
72.6%
@ 1.85+22.3pp
Under 61
27.4%
@ 1.87-22.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Mercer total 65Actual: Mercer under 65
Over 65
57.3%
Under 65
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread West Virginia -29.5Actual: Mercer +29.5
WEST -29.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
MERC +29.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
Best 5 market prices
WEST
Pinnacle
2.35
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.25
MERC
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
Spread West Virginia -26.5 · main lineActual: Mercer +26.5
WEST -26.5
no forecast
@ 1.98
MERC +26.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
Best 5 market prices
WEST
Bet365
1.98
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathon Be
1.93
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
MERC
Betano
1.93
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.84
1xBet
1.83
Spread West Virginia -23.5Actual: Mercer +23.5
WEST -23.5
20.4%
@ 1.58-38.1pp
MERC +23.5
79.6%
@ 2.22+38.1pp
Best 5 market prices
WEST
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57
MERC
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.22
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
West VirginiaMercer
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
West VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UCF Knights
#92
L
28-29
28
29
-1
A14/02
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
L
21-31
21
31
-10
H19/02
NCAA
TCU
#77
L
25-30
25
30
-5
A21/02
NCAA
Oklahoma State
#140
L
33-46
33
46
-13
A25/02
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
W
40-26
40
26
+14
H28/02
NCAA
Kansas State
#292
W
26-23
26
23
+3
A04/03
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
W
32-23
32
23
+9
H07/03
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
L
23-31
23
31
-8
H11/03
NCAA
Niagara
#380
W
43-30
43
30
+13
H03/11
NCAA
Stetson
#385
W
43-30
43
30
+13
H07/11
NCAA
61.3Avg total
31.4Scored
29.9Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 71.5
Last 30 (30)
32.1
30.9
63.1
+1.2
50%
20%
Last 30 at home (18)
35.1
29.3
64.4
+5.7
67%
22%
Last 30 away (12)
27.8
33.3
61.1
-5.6
25%
17%
Last 10 (10)
31.4
29.9
61.3
+1.5
50%
30%
Last 5 (5)
33.4
27.4
60.8
+6.0
80%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)
23.0
39.0
62.0
-16.0
0%
0%
vs Similar (16)
31.6
31.2
62.9
+0.4
44%
12%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)
35.4
28.3
63.6
+7.1
73%
36%
This opponent (Mercer) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (West Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: West Virginia win
WEST win
no forecast
@ 1.09
MERC win
no forecast
@ 7.80
2nd half Spread West Virginia -12.5 · main lineActual: Mercer +12.5
WEST -12.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
MERC +12.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: West Virginia (regulation)
WEST
no forecast
@ 1.10
Draw
no forecast
@ 27.00
MERC
no forecast
@ 7.50
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Mercer +21
73.6%
2.80
Bet365
2.80
-
-
-
-
+40.6pp
Won
Mercer +20
70.6%
3.10
Bet365
3.10
-
-
-
-
+40.6pp
Won
Mercer +22
76.5%
2.55
Bet365
2.55
-
-
-
-
+39.9pp
Won
Mercer +24.5
81.9%
2.15
Pinnacle
2.27
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
-
-
+39.7pp
Won
Mercer +25
83.7%
2.08
Pinnacle
2.17
Bet365
2.00
-
-
-
+39.7pp
Won
Mercer +23
79.1%
2.35
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
-
+39.5pp
Won
Mercer +21.5
74.4%
2.61
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.57
-
-
-
+38.9pp
Won
Mercer +20.5
71.5%
2.81
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.77
-
-
-
+38.6pp
Won
Mercer +24
81.5%
2.15
Bet365
2.15
-
-
-
-
+38.5pp
Won
Mercer +22.5
77.1%
2.38
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.37
-
-
-
+38.3pp
Won
Mercer +23.5
79.6%
2.22
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.22
-
-
-
+38.1pp
Won
West Virginia under 86.5
70.8%
2.23
1xBet
2.25
Betano
2.20
-
-
-
+29.8pp
Won
West Virginia under 89
79.7%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
+29.7pp
Won
West Virginia under 87.5
74.2%
2.08
Pinnacle
2.09
Betano
2.07
-
-
-
+29.2pp
Won
West Virginia under 89.5
80.3%
1.83
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
Betano
1.80
+27.6pp
Won
West Virginia under 90.5
82.9%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.62
-
-
-
+27.6pp
Won
West Virginia under 88.5
77.3%
1.87
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
+27.5pp
Won
West Virginia under 88
76.6%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+26.6pp
Won
West Virginia under 91.5
85.4%
1.54
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.53
-
-
+25.6pp
Won
West Virginia under 92.5
87.5%
1.47
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+25.0pp
Won
West Virginia under 93.5
89.5%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+23.0pp
Won
Mercer over 61
72.6%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+22.3pp
Push
West Virginia under 94.5
91.2%
1.31
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Won
West Virginia under 95.5
92.7%
1.28
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Won
Mercer over 60.5
73.5%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+19.9pp
Won
Mercer over 61.5
70.1%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
+19.9pp
Lost
West Virginia under 97.5
95.1%
1.17
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Won
Mercer over 59.5
76.7%
1.49
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
+15.2pp
Won
West Virginia under 98.5
96.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Won
Mercer over 58.5
79.6%
1.42
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+14.9pp
Won
West Virginia under 99.5
96.8%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Won
Mercer over 56.5
84.8%
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+13.4pp
Won
Mercer over 57.5
82.3%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
Mercer over 54.5
89.0%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
Mercer over 55.5
87.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
Mercer over 53.5
90.8%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Mercer over 52.5
92.3%
1.11
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
Under 156.5
70.2%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Mercer over 51.5
93.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Under 157.5
72.3%
1.40
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Under 157
71.7%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Under 158.5
74.3%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Under 158
73.8%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Under 159
75.8%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Under 159.5
76.2%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Under 161.5
79.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Under 176.5
95.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Under 171.5
92.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Under 166.5
87.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
West Virginia (regulation)
87.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Over 126.5
90.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
West Virginia win
89.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Over 131.5
84.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
Mercer under 77.5
85.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
West Virginia over 70.5
85.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
West Virginia over 71.5
83.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
Over 136.5
75.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-9.1pp
Lost
Mercer under 75.5
80.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
West Virginia over 72.5
80.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.4pp
Won
West Virginia over 73.5
77.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-11.8pp
Won
Mercer under 73.5
74.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-13.4pp
Won
West Virginia over 74.5
74.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-14.6pp
Won
Mercer under 72.5
71.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-15.8pp
Won
West Virginia over 75.5
71.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-16.5pp
Lost
West Virginia -6.5
75.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-16.7pp
Won
West Virginia -7.5
72.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-19.7pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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