Western Illinois hosts CSU Bakersfield on 12 November 2026 in an NCAA contest that the Pythia model deems a favourite for the home side, projecting a 71% chance of victory and a 79-72 scoreline; the model also projects 150.8 total points, a 6.5-point line with an 86% probability of the home team covering, and a 148.5-point over line with a 55% chance of the over, while the overtime likelihood sits at 5%. Western Illinois is 1-2 for the season, averaging 71.7 points scored and 67.3 points allowed, and sits 264th in the league; at home they are 1-1, averaging 78.5 points and allowing 61.0, and have won only one of their last five games. CSU Bakersfield is undefeated 2-0, scoring 92.0 points per game and conceding 67.0, and sits 46th in the standings; they have won two of their last five and have recorded two home victories and a recent loss to Cal Poly. The teams have met once before, with CSU Bakersfield winning 74-58 on 11 November 2025, a result that echoes the current projected edge for the home side.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Western Illinois winLost
70.9%fair 1.41
Best odds4.50
Implied21.6%
Edge+49.3pp
CSU Bakersfield winWon
29.1%fair 3.44
Best odds1.24
Implied78.4%
Edge-49.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 07:02 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Western Illinois) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 141.5Actual: Over 141.5
Over 141.5
71.0%
@ 1.42+2.7pp
Under 141.5
29.0%
@ 3.30-2.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.30
Betano
2.60
Over/Under 146.5 · main lineActual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
59.8%
@ 1.89+9.2pp
Under 146.5
40.2%
@ 2.25-9.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
WilliamHill
1.80
Marathon Be
1.79
Betano
1.78
Bet365
1.57
Under
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.90
Over/Under 151.5Actual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
47.7%
@ 2.27+0.7pp
Under 151.5
52.3%
@ 1.80-0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathon Be
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Under
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Be
1.75
Bet365
1.68
Betano
1.55
📊 3. Team Totals
Western Illinois total 66.5Actual: Western Illinois over 66.5
Over 66.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under 66.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.30
Western Illinois total 71 · main lineActual: Western Illinois over 71
Over 71
77.9%
@ 1.88+28.3pp
Under 71
22.1%
@ 1.85-28.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Western Illinois total 75Actual: Western Illinois over 75
Over 75
64.1%
Under 75
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSU Bakersfield total 74Actual: CSU Bakersfield over 74
Over 74
42.7%
Under 74
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSU Bakersfield total 78 · main lineActual: CSU Bakersfield over 78
Over 78
28.0%
@ 1.85-22.0pp
Under 78
72.0%
@ 1.85+22.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
CSU Bakersfield total 81.5Actual: CSU Bakersfield over 81.5
Over 81.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
Under 81.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
Pinnacle
2.08
Under
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.47
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Western Illinois +2.5Actual: CSU Bakersfield -2.5
WEST +2.5
76.6%
@ 3.25+47.7pp
CSU -2.5
23.4%
@ 1.30-47.7pp
Best 5 market prices
WEST
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.15
CSU
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Spread Western Illinois +5.5 · main lineActual: CSU Bakersfield -5.5
WEST +5.5
83.8%
@ 2.55+45.3pp
CSU -5.5
16.2%
@ 1.83-45.3pp
Best 5 market prices
WEST
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
1xBet
1.83
CSU
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Spread Western Illinois +8.5Actual: Western Illinois +8.5
WEST +8.5
89.4%
@ 2.04+42.4pp
CSU -8.5
10.6%
@ 2.00-42.4pp
Best 5 market prices
WEST
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
Marathon Be
1.85
CSU
1xBet
2.00
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
SBO
1.78
Marathon Be
1.77
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Western IllinoisCSU Bakersfield
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Western Illinois +2
75.8%
3.55
Bet365
3.55
-
-
-
-
+49.6pp
Lost
Western Illinois +3
78.4%
3.20
Bet365
3.20
-
-
-
-
+49.4pp
Lost
Western Illinois win
70.9%
4.13
WilliamHill
4.50
Pinnacle
4.47
Bet365
4.40
Betano
4.35
BetVictor
4.10
+49.3pp
Lost
Western Illinois +4
81.0%
2.85
Bet365
2.85
-
-
-
-
+48.5pp
Lost
Western Illinois +5
83.4%
2.65
Bet365
2.65
-
-
-
-
+48.4pp
Lost
Western Illinois +2.5
76.6%
3.20
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.15
-
-
-
+47.7pp
Lost
Western Illinois +3.5
78.9%
2.94
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.87
-
-
-
+47.3pp
Lost
Western Illinois +4.5
81.5%
2.66
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.62
-
-
-
+46.7pp
Lost
Western Illinois +1
72.6%
3.45
Bet365
3.45
-
-
-
-
+45.7pp
Lost
Western Illinois +1.5
73.2%
3.38
Bet365
3.65
Betano
3.10
-
-
-
+45.6pp
Lost
Western Illinois +5.5
83.8%
2.26
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
1xBet
1.83
-
-
+45.3pp
Lost
Western Illinois +7.5
87.7%
2.00
Pinnacle
2.22
Bet365
2.12
Betano
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.99
BetVictor
1.88
+44.6pp
Lost
Western Illinois +8
89.2%
1.99
Pinnacle
2.13
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.91
SBO
1.88
-
+44.2pp
Push
Western Illinois +6
85.6%
2.21
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.26
SBO
1.88
-
-
+43.2pp
Lost
Western Illinois +8.5
89.4%
1.91
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.85
+42.4pp
Won
Western Illinois +6.5
85.9%
2.03
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.17
BetVictor
1.83
1xBet
1.83
+41.8pp
Lost
Western Illinois +9
90.7%
1.91
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.88
SBO
1.88
-
+41.3pp
Won
Western Illinois +7
87.5%
2.07
Bet365
2.22
Pinnacle
2.07
Marathon Bet
2.05
SBO
1.93
-
+41.3pp
Lost
Western Illinois -1
70.2%
3.10
Bet365
3.10
-
-
-
-
+40.1pp
Lost
Western Illinois +9.5
90.8%
1.82
Bet365
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.83
Betano
1.82
SBO
1.81
+39.0pp
Won
Western Illinois +10
92.0%
1.77
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.77
SBO
1.75
-
+37.8pp
Won
Western Illinois +10.5
92.1%
1.71
Betano
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.71
Bet365
1.71
Pinnacle
1.69
-
+35.5pp
Won
Western Illinois +12
94.1%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+35.2pp
Won
Western Illinois over 72.5
72.4%
2.40
Betano
2.40
-
-
-
-
+34.8pp
Won
Western Illinois +11
93.1%
1.65
Bet365
1.66
Pinnacle
1.64
-
-
-
+34.7pp
Won
Western Illinois +12.5
94.2%
1.52
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+33.2pp
Won
Western Illinois +11.5
93.2%
1.59
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.57
-
-
+32.8pp
Won
Western Illinois +13
95.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+32.5pp
Won
Western Illinois +13.5
95.0%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+30.6pp
Won
Western Illinois +14
95.7%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+29.7pp
Won
Western Illinois +14.5
95.7%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+28.6pp
Won
Western Illinois over 71.5
75.6%
1.99
Betano
2.18
Pinnacle
2.00
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.86
-
+28.5pp
Won
Western Illinois over 71
77.9%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+28.3pp
Won
CSU Bakersfield under 80
78.1%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+27.8pp
Lost
Western Illinois +15
96.4%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+26.9pp
Won
CSU Bakersfield under 80.5
78.7%
1.75
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.55
-
+26.8pp
Lost
Western Illinois +15.5
96.4%
1.31
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+26.0pp
Won
CSU Bakersfield under 79
75.1%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
-
+25.1pp
Lost
Western Illinois +16
96.9%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+24.5pp
Won
Western Illinois +16.5
96.9%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
+23.9pp
Won
Western Illinois +17
97.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Won
CSU Bakersfield under 78
72.0%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+22.0pp
Lost
Western Illinois +17.5
97.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+21.2pp
Won
CSU Bakersfield under 79.5
75.9%
1.80
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.70
+20.8pp
Lost
CSU Bakersfield under 78.5
72.9%
1.82
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
+19.3pp
Lost
Western Illinois +19.5
98.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+17.6pp
Won
Western Illinois +22.5
98.9%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Won
Western Illinois +24.5
99.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Over 140.5
73.1%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.4%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.03
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Over 141.5
71.0%
1.35
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Over 124.5
94.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Under 174.5
92.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Over 129.5
90.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Over 142
70.4%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Over 139.5
75.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Under 169.5
87.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Lost
Over 134.5
83.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Won
Under 164.5
79.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Lost
Under 159.5
70.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Lost
CSU Bakersfield over 59.5
89.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Won
CSU Bakersfield over 60.5
87.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
CSU Bakersfield over 61.5
85.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
CSU Bakersfield over 62.5
82.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.4pp
Won
CSU Bakersfield over 63.5
80.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-10.2pp
Won
Western Illinois under 87.5
81.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-11.5pp
Won
CSU Bakersfield over 64.5
77.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-13.1pp
Won
CSU Bakersfield over 65.5
74.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-14.4pp
Won
Western Illinois under 85.5
75.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-15.6pp
Won
CSU Bakersfield over 66.5
71.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-17.7pp
Won
CSU Bakersfield +12.5
71.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-20.3pp
Won
Free daily update
Get it on Telegram
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which
predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our
Cookie Policy.
Manage Cookies
Strictly Necessary
Always Active
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the
pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the
operation of our website.
Session and security cookies, your logged-in state, your
subscription status, and the record of this cookie choice itself. These cannot be switched
off because the site cannot be delivered without them.
Functionality Cookies
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site
behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to
build a profile of you.
Your preferred tours and filters, which notices you have dismissed, your
theme choice, and display preferences you have chosen. Kept for up to two years, and you
can clear them from your browser at any time.
These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
Only" inside this panel switches them off as well.
Performance Cookies
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to
produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.