Valparaiso hosts Western Illinois on 2 November 2026 in an NCAA contest, and the Pythia model names Valparaiso the clear favourite, assigning it a 91% chance of victory largely because of its dominant home performance and the stark contrast to Western Illinois' 0-5 away record. Valparaiso's last five home games include a 63-62 win over Indiana State, a 84-90 loss to Bradley, and a 79-80 loss to Evansville, while Western Illinois' last five away contests ended in defeats to Lindenwood, Siu Edwardsville and Morehead State, among others. Their only historical meeting was a 73-66 win for Valparaiso in November 2023. The model projects a 79-64 score, with a total of 143.0 points, and assigns a 40% probability that Valparaiso will cover the home line of -18.5. The over-142.0 line carries a 52% chance of hitting, and there is a 2% likelihood of overtime. The game is poised to showcase Valparaiso's offensive firepower against a struggling Western Illinois squad.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Valparaiso winWon
91.4%fair 1.09
Best odds1.03
Implied92.7%
Edge-1.4pp
Western Illinois winLost
8.6%fair 11.59
Best odds17.00
Implied7.3%
Edge+1.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Western Illinois total 62 · main lineActual: Western Illinois under 62
Over 62
56.3%
@ 1.85+6.3pp
Under 62
43.7%
@ 1.85-6.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Western Illinois total 66Actual: Western Illinois under 66
Over 66
39.8%
Under 66
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Valparaiso -21.5Actual: Valparaiso -21.5
VALP -21.5
30.3%
@ 2.30-10.8pp
WEST +21.5
69.7%
@ 1.64+10.8pp
Best 5 market prices
VALP
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.12
WEST
1xBet
1.64
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.55
Spread Valparaiso -18.5 · main lineActual: Valparaiso -18.5
VALP -18.5
40.1%
@ 1.93-9.9pp
WEST +18.5
59.9%
@ 1.93+9.9pp
Best 5 market prices
VALP
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.89
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.80
WEST
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Spread Valparaiso -15.5Actual: Valparaiso -15.5
VALP -15.5
50.7%
@ 1.54-9.6pp
WEST +15.5
49.3%
@ 2.35+9.6pp
Best 5 market prices
VALP
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
WEST
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.32
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
ValparaisoWestern Illinois
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
VAValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Western Illinois over 56.5
75.9%
1.38
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.30
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
Western Illinois +22.5
72.7%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Won
Western Illinois +22
71.9%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Push
Western Illinois over 57.5
72.7%
1.48
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Won
Western Illinois +23.5
75.5%
1.42
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+10.3pp
Won
Western Illinois +24
77.6%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Western Illinois +23
74.8%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Western Illinois +24.5
78.2%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Western Illinois +25
80.1%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Western Illinois over 55.5
78.9%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Over 133.5
72.0%
1.40
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Valparaiso under 87.5
79.5%
1.26
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Over 133
73.5%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Over 132.5
74.0%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Over 134
71.4%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Over 132
75.5%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Valparaiso under 86.5
76.5%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Valparaiso under 90.5
87.0%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Valparaiso under 85.5
73.3%
1.32
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Over 131.5
76.0%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Valparaiso over 62.5
95.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Valparaiso under 89.5
84.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Valparaiso over 64.5
93.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Over 129.5
79.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Valparaiso under 91.5
89.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Valparaiso over 63.5
94.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Valparaiso over 66.5
90.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Over 119.5
92.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Valparaiso over 65.5
91.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Over 117.5
94.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Valparaiso over 68.5
86.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Over 124.5
87.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Valparaiso (regulation)
90.1%
1.03
1xBet
1.05
Betano
1.03
Marathon Bet
1.02
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Valparaiso under 88.5
82.2%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Valparaiso over 67.5
88.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Over 121.5
90.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Valparaiso over 70.5
81.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Over 122.5
89.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Under 166.5
92.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Valparaiso over 69.5
84.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Under 167.5
93.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Valparaiso +1.5
92.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Western Illinois under 78.5
92.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Valparaiso win
91.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Marathon Bet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betfair
1.02
-1.4pp
Won
Over 126.5
84.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-1.5pp
Won
Western Illinois under 76.5
89.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Won
Under 162.5
88.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Over 127.5
83.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Valparaiso over 73.5
72.4%
1.24
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Under 161.5
87.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Valparaiso over 71.5
78.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Under 164.5
90.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Valparaiso -3.5
86.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Western Illinois under 74.5
85.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Under 157.5
81.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Under 152.5
72.3%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Under 159.5
84.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
Under 156.5
79.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Western Illinois under 72.5
81.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-5.9pp
Won
Under 151.5
70.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
Western Illinois under 71.5
78.5%
1.10
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
Valparaiso -8.5
74.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-7.3pp
Won
Valparaiso over 72.5
75.7%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
Western Illinois under 70.5
75.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-7.6pp
Won
Western Illinois under 69.5
72.3%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-9.1pp
Won
Under 154.5
76.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-9.8pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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