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Wisconsin vs Denver Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Projected 86-73
Projected total 159.3
Final 75-68
44-30 31-38
Position#50
Record-
FormWWWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Wisconsin 🏆
USA
Vs
87%
13%
■ WISC 87%■ DENV 13%
Pythia win probability
Denver
USA
Position#359
Record-
FormLWWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Wisconsin faces Denver on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model designating Wisconsin as the clear favourite because its season record and scoring numbers are far superior to Denver's, giving the model an 87% chance of a win for the Badgers. Wisconsin has won 3 of its last 5 games, including a narrow 82-83 loss to High Point at home on 19 March 2026, a 65-68 defeat to Michigan away on 14 March 2026, and a 91-88 victory over Illinois away on 13 March 2026, while Denver has won only 2 of its last 5, dropping to 67-83 against North Dakota away on 6 March 2026, falling 80-102 to Oral Roberts away on 26 February 2026, and beating St. Thomas (Minn.) 82-80 at home on 21 February 2026. The projected score is 86-73 for Wisconsin, with a total of 159.3 points; the Badgers' line is -23.5 and the model gives an 18% chance of covering, while the over/under line is 160.0 with a 48% probability of the over. The overtime probability is 3%.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Wisconsin winWon
87.4%fair 1.14
Best odds1.02
Implied94.9%
Edge-7.6pp
Denver winLost
12.6%fair 7.92
Best odds26.00
Implied5.1%
Edge+7.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

WisconsinUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ohio State
#104
L
69-86
69
86
-17
A18/02
NCAA
Iowa
#81
W
84-71
84
71
+13
H22/02
NCAA
Oregon
#293
L
71-85
71
85
-14
A26/02
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
90-73
90
73
+17
A28/02
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
78-45
78
45
+33
H05/03
NCAA
Purdue
#31
W
97-93
97
93
+4
A07/03
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
85-82
85
82
+3
H12/03
NCAA
Illinois
#35
W
91-88 OT
91
88
+3
A13/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
65-68
65
68
-3
A14/03
NCAA
High Point
#10
L
82-83
82
83
-1
H19/03
NCAA
1H
2H
26-38
43-48
40-41
44-30
33-30
38-55
36-21
54-52
34-21
44-24
52-47
45-46
43-33
42-49
30-36
48-42
28-28
37-40
41-39
41-44
158.6Avg total
81.2Scored
77.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)81.277.4158.6+3.860%
Last 5 (5)84.082.8166.8+1.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)84.485.6170.0-1.157%
vs Similar (11)78.077.7155.7+0.355%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)84.371.0155.3+13.383%
This opponent (Denver) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DenverUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UMKC
#368
W
69-61
69
61
+8
A29/01
NCAA
Nebraska O.
#219
L
82-84
82
84
-2
H31/01
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
78-71
78
71
+7
A06/02
NCAA
North Dakota
#196
W
98-79
98
79
+19
A07/02
NCAA
South Dakota St.
#254
W
79-61
79
61
+18
H13/02
NCAA
Nebraska O.
#219
L
76-83
76
83
-7
A15/02
NCAA
South Dakota Coyotes
#214
W
90-70
90
70
+20
H20/02
NCAA
St. Thomas (Minn.)
#42
W
82-80
82
80
+2
H21/02
NCAA
Oral Roberts
#338
L
80-102
80
102
-22
A27/02
NCAA
North Dakota
#196
L
67-83
67
83
-16
A07/03
NCAA
1H
2H
32-32
37-29
35-27
47-57
40-34
38-37
43-27
55-52
36-25
43-36
38-49
38-34
37-34
53-36
37-39
45-41
33-51
47-51
29-42
38-41
157.5Avg total
80.1Scored
77.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)80.177.4157.5+2.760%
Last 5 (5)79.083.6162.6-4.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)78.685.2163.8-6.650%
vs Similar (12)82.284.1166.3-1.833%
vs Weaker (6)84.777.8162.5+6.867%
This opponent (Wisconsin) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 155Actual: Under 155
Over 155
60.4%
@ 1.50-2.1pp
Under 155
39.6%
@ 2.50+2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 160 · main lineActual: Under 160
Over 160
47.9%
@ 1.94-0.7pp
Under 160
52.1%
@ 1.82+0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.94
Marathon Be
1.89
Under
Marathon Be
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 165Actual: Under 165
Over 165
35.7%
@ 2.60-0.1pp
Under 165
64.3%
@ 1.45+0.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Under
Bet365
1.45

📊 3. Team Totals

Wisconsin total 87.5Actual: Wisconsin under 87.5
Over 87.5
44.9%
@ 1.42-18.9pp
Under 87.5
55.1%
@ 2.50+18.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.50
Wisconsin total 91.5 · main lineActual: Wisconsin under 91.5
Over 91.5
29.7%
@ 1.87-20.3pp
Under 91.5
70.3%
@ 1.86+20.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Betano
1.83
Wisconsin total 95.5Actual: Wisconsin under 95.5
Over 95.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
Under 95.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.40
Denver total 64.5Actual: Denver over 64.5
Over 64.5
80.1%
@ 1.44+17.4pp
Under 64.5
19.9%
@ 2.42-17.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.42
Denver total 68.5 · main lineActual: Denver under 68.5
Over 68.5
67.2%
@ 1.95+18.3pp
Under 68.5
32.8%
@ 1.85-18.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.75
Denver total 72.5Actual: Denver under 72.5
Over 72.5
51.9%
@ 2.72+18.7pp
Under 72.5
48.1%
@ 1.35-18.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.72
Under
Betano
1.35

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Wisconsin -26.5Actual: Denver +26.5
WISC -26.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
DENV +26.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
Best 5 market prices
WISC
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.25
DENV
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.55
Spread Wisconsin -23.5 · main lineActual: Denver +23.5
WISC -23.5
17.9%
@ 1.93-31.6pp
DENV +23.5
82.1%
@ 1.88+31.6pp
Best 5 market prices
WISC
Bet365
1.93
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.90
BetVictor
1.83
DENV
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.88
Marathon Be
1.81
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Spread Wisconsin -20.5Actual: Denver +20.5
WISC -20.5
25.4%
@ 1.58-33.1pp
DENV +20.5
74.6%
@ 2.22+33.1pp
Best 5 market prices
WISC
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57
DENV
Bet365
2.22
Betano
2.22

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +2.9+2.91st half: +0.0+0.02nd half2nd half: +0.6+0.62nd half: +2.7+2.7
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +2.9+2.91st half: +0.0+0.02nd half2nd half: +0.6+0.62nd half: +2.7+2.7
WisconsinDenver
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
WisconsinLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ohio State
#104
L
26-38
26
38
-12
A18/02
NCAA
Iowa
#81
L
40-41
40
41
-1
H22/02
NCAA
Oregon
#293
W
33-30
33
30
+3
A26/02
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
36-21
36
21
+15
A28/02
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
34-21
34
21
+13
H05/03
NCAA
Purdue
#31
W
52-47
52
47
+5
A07/03
NCAA
Washington
#218
W
43-33
43
33
+10
H12/03
NCAA
Illinois
#35
L
30-36
30
36
-6
A13/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
D
28-28
28
28
+0
A14/03
NCAA
High Point
#10
W
41-39
41
39
+2
H19/03
NCAA
69.7Avg total
36.3Scored
33.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 79
Last 30 (30)38.534.472.9+4.157%37%
Last 30 at home (15)41.733.575.1+8.280%53%
Last 30 away (15)35.335.370.6-0.133%20%
Last 10 (10)36.333.469.7+2.960%30%
Last 5 (5)38.836.675.4+2.260%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)37.739.677.3-1.929%57%
vs Similar (11)37.336.473.6+0.945%27%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)40.029.669.6+10.483%33%
This opponent (Denver) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DenverLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UMKC
#368
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A29/01
NCAA
Nebraska O.
#219
W
35-27
35
27
+8
H31/01
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
40-34
40
34
+6
A06/02
NCAA
North Dakota
#196
W
43-27
43
27
+16
A07/02
NCAA
South Dakota St.
#254
W
36-25
36
25
+11
H13/02
NCAA
Nebraska O.
#219
L
38-49
38
49
-11
A15/02
NCAA
South Dakota Coyotes
#214
W
37-34
37
34
+3
H20/02
NCAA
St. Thomas (Minn.)
#42
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H21/02
NCAA
Oral Roberts
#338
L
33-51
33
51
-18
A27/02
NCAA
North Dakota
#196
L
29-42
29
42
-13
A07/03
NCAA
72.0Avg total
36.0Scored
36.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 79
Last 30 (30)38.438.576.9-0.047%40%
Last 30 at home (14)41.436.978.4+4.571%36%
Last 30 away (16)35.839.875.6-4.025%44%
Last 10 (10)36.036.072.0+0.050%20%
Last 5 (5)34.843.077.8-8.220%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)36.340.777.0-4.420%50%
vs Similar (12)37.438.075.4-0.658%33%
vs Weaker (6)39.337.076.3+2.350%33%
This opponent (Wisconsin) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Wisconsin win
WISC win
no forecast
@ 1.06
DENV win
no forecast
@ 9.25
1st half Spread Wisconsin -12 · main lineActual: Wisconsin -12
WISC -12
no forecast
@ 1.85
DENV +12
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 79 · main lineActual: Under 79
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
Wisconsin 1st half total 45.5 · main lineActual: Wisconsin under 45.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.15
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Denver 1st half total 33.5 · main lineActual: Denver under 33.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.42
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.18
Under
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread Wisconsin -13.5Actual: Wisconsin -13.5
WISC -13.5
no forecast
@ 1.98
DENV +13.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half Spread Wisconsin -10.5Actual: Wisconsin -10.5
WISC -10.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
DENV +10.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Spread Wisconsin -14.5Actual: Denver +14.5
WISC -14.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
DENV +14.5
no forecast
@ 1.65
1st half Spread Wisconsin -9.5Actual: Wisconsin -9.5
WISC -9.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
DENV +9.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.65
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Spread Wisconsin -15.5Actual: Denver +15.5
WISC -15.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
DENV +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Spread Wisconsin -8.5Actual: Wisconsin -8.5
WISC -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.38
DENV +8.5
no forecast
@ 2.75
1st half Spread Wisconsin -16.5Actual: Denver +16.5
WISC -16.5
no forecast
@ 2.52
DENV +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Wisconsin (regulation)
WISC
no forecast
@ 1.07
Draw
no forecast
@ 34.00
DENV
no forecast
@ 9.70

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
WISC win + total 159.5
🔒 Pro
DENV win + total 159.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: WISC leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: DENV leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Denver +1970.9%2.60
Bet365
2.60		----+35.1ppWon
Denver +2073.9%2.35
Bet365
2.35		----+34.3ppWon
Denver +2176.7%2.15
Bet365
2.15		----+33.7ppWon
Denver +19.571.8%2.44
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.37		---+33.6ppWon
Denver +20.574.6%2.22
Bet365
2.22
Betano
2.22		---+33.1ppWon
Denver +2279.3%2.00
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Bet
2.00		---+33.1ppWon
Denver +21.577.3%2.06
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.00		--+33.0ppWon
Denver +2381.7%1.90
Bet365
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.88		---+32.9ppWon
Denver +24.584.2%1.78
SBO
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Bet365
1.71		-+31.9ppWon
Denver +23.582.1%1.83
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.81
1xBet
1.80
BetVictor
1.80		+31.6ppWon
Denver +22.579.8%1.92
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.95
SBO
1.92		+31.5ppWon
Denver +2483.9%1.74
Bet365
1.74		----+31.1ppWon
Denver +2585.9%1.68
Bet365
1.68		----+30.9ppWon
Wisconsin under 91.570.3%1.84
1xBet
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
Betano
1.83		+20.3ppWon
Denver over 67.570.7%1.80
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
1xBet
1.80		--+19.2ppWon
Denver over 66.574.0%1.67
Betano
1.67		----+18.7ppWon
Denver over 64.580.1%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+17.4ppWon
Denver over 65.577.2%1.52
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52		---+17.1ppWon
Denver over 62.585.2%1.30
Betano
1.30		----+15.8ppWon
Denver over 63.582.8%1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.34		---+15.0ppWon
Denver over 61.587.4%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+11.2ppWon
Denver over 59.591.0%1.14
Bet365
1.14		----+9.6ppWon
Denver over 58.592.5%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+8.1ppWon
Denver over 57.593.8%1.08
Bet365
1.08		----+7.2ppWon
Denver over 55.595.9%1.05
Bet365
1.05		----+6.9ppWon
Over 134.593.7%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+1.4ppWon
Over 139.588.8%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----0.6ppWon
Wisconsin over 71.592.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----0.8ppWon
Wisconsin over 73.589.9%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----1.3ppWon
Wisconsin over 72.591.5%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----1.3ppWon
Under 169.573.6%1.23
Bet365
1.23		-----1.7ppWon
Under 174.582.5%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----1.9ppWon
Over 144.581.7%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----2.6ppLost
Over 149.572.5%1.23
Bet365
1.23		-----2.9ppLost
Wisconsin over 74.588.0%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----3.1ppWon
Wisconsin (regulation)85.7%1.02
Betano
1.02		-----3.2ppWon
Wisconsin over 75.585.9%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----3.7ppLost
Wisconsin over 76.583.6%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----5.8ppLost
Denver under 83.584.6%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----6.9ppWon
Wisconsin over 77.581.0%1.06
Bet365
1.06		-----7.0ppLost
Wisconsin win87.4%1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01		----7.6ppWon
Wisconsin -2.583.2%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----9.0ppWon
Wisconsin over 78.578.2%1.07
Bet365
1.07		-----9.4ppLost
Denver under 81.579.7%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----9.9ppWon
Wisconsin over 79.575.1%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----9.9ppLost
Wisconsin over 80.571.8%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----12.0ppLost
Denver under 79.573.9%1.07
Bet365
1.07		-----13.6ppWon
Denver under 78.570.6%1.09
Bet365
1.09		-----15.5ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Wisconsin wins
0
Denver wins
No previous meetings.
Wisconsinlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/03/26HHigh Point82-83
14/03/26AMichigan65-68
13/03/26AIllinois91-88 OT
12/03/26HWashington85-82
07/03/26APurdue97-93
05/03/26HMaryland78-45
28/02/26AWashington90-73
26/02/26AOregon71-85
22/02/26HIowa84-71
18/02/26AOhio State69-86
Denverlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/03/26ANorth Dakota67-83
27/02/26AOral Roberts80-102
21/02/26HSt. Thomas (Minn.)82-80
20/02/26HSouth Dakota Coyotes90-70
15/02/26ANebraska O.76-83
13/02/26HSouth Dakota St.79-61
07/02/26ANorth Dakota98-79
06/02/26ANorth Dakota St78-71
31/01/26HNebraska O.82-84
29/01/26AUMKC69-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Wisconsin
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 160---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Denver
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 160---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Michigan State110100%96.059.0+37.0
2 Indiana110100%91.057.0+34.0
3 Maryland110100%96.067.0+29.0
4 Michigan110100%84.068.0+16.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Summit League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 South Dakota Coyotes110100%95.057.0+38.0
2 St. Thomas (Minn.)110100%87.078.0+9.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Wisconsin443175
Denver303868
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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