Wright State faces Florida Atlantic in an NCAA contest on 6 November 2026, with the model designating Wright State as the clear favourite thanks to an undefeated 1-0 record, 102.0 points per game and only 71.0 allowed, placing them 82nd, while Florida Atlantic also stands 1-0 but averages 74.0 points and 60.0 allowed, 148th. Wright State's single game was a 102-71 home win over Air Force, and they have won four of their last five, with a recent 66-63 victory over Detroit at home; Florida Atlantic's lone outing was a 74-60 home win over LIU Sharks, and they have three wins in five, including a 63-59 home win over Temple. The two teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects an 81% chance for Wright State to win versus 19% for Florida Atlantic, with a projected score of 83-73 and a total of 156.9 points; the home line of -3.0 carries a 75% probability of covering, while the over-157.5 line has a 48% chance, and a 4% chance of overtime. Wright State's recent dominance and Florida Atlantic's modest scoring suggest a decisive home victory.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Wright State winWon
81.2%fair 1.23
Best odds1.61
Implied59.9%
Edge+21.4pp
Florida Atlantic winLost
18.8%fair 5.32
Best odds2.46
Implied40.1%
Edge-21.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Wright State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152.5Actual: Over 152.5
Over 152.5
60.0%
@ 1.44-5.2pp
Under 152.5
40.0%
@ 2.75+5.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.57
Over/Under 157.5 · main lineActual: Over 157.5
Over 157.5
47.9%
@ 1.89-2.6pp
Under 157.5
52.1%
@ 2.02+2.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.80
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.74
Under
Bet365
2.02
Betano
1.98
Marathon Be
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Over/Under 162.5Actual: Over 162.5
Over 162.5
36.0%
@ 2.30-4.4pp
Under 162.5
64.0%
@ 1.55+4.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27
Under
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
📊 3. Team Totals
Wright State total 77Actual: Wright State over 77
Over 77
74.9%
Under 77
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wright State total 81 · main lineActual: Wright State over 81
Over 81
60.2%
@ 1.85+10.2pp
Under 81
39.8%
@ 1.85-10.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Wright State total 85Actual: Wright State over 85
Over 85
43.6%
Under 85
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Florida Atlantic total 73Actual: Florida Atlantic under 73
Over 73
51.0%
Under 73
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Florida Atlantic total 77 · main lineActual: Florida Atlantic under 77
Over 77
35.2%
@ 1.87-14.3pp
Under 77
64.8%
@ 1.83+14.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
Marathon Be
1.83
Florida Atlantic total 80.5Actual: Florida Atlantic under 80.5
Over 80.5
24.1%
@ 2.40-15.0pp
Under 80.5
75.9%
@ 1.52+15.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.30
Under
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Wright State -6.5Actual: Wright State -6.5
WRIG -6.5
62.9%
@ 2.30+22.5pp
FLOR +6.5
37.1%
@ 1.55-22.5pp
Best 5 market prices
WRIG
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27
FLOR
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
Spread Wright State -3.5 · main lineActual: Wright State -3.5
WRIG -3.5
73.2%
@ 1.93+23.3pp
FLOR +3.5
26.8%
@ 1.92-23.3pp
Best 5 market prices
WRIG
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.80
FLOR
Pinnacle
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
Spread Wright State -0.5Actual: Wright State -0.5
WRIG -0.5
81.2%
FLOR +0.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
WRIG
No market prices yet.
FLOR
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Wright StateFlorida Atlantic
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Wright StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cleveland State
#303
W
51-36
51
36
+15
A15/02
NCAA
IU Indy
#360
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H20/02
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
L
29-39
29
39
-10
H22/02
NCAA
IPFW
#181
W
31-26
31
26
+5
A26/02
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#130
L
35-53
35
53
-18
A01/03
NCAA
Cleveland State
#303
W
37-32
37
32
+5
H05/03
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#130
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H09/03
NCAA
Detroit
#184
L
26-29
26
29
-3
H10/03
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
43-38
43
38
+5
A20/03
NCAA
Air Force
#209
W
60-31
60
31
+29
H03/11
NCAA
76.2Avg total
39.8Scored
36.4Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 75
Last 30 (30)
39.3
34.9
74.3
+4.4
70%
43%
Last 30 at home (16)
39.9
36.2
76.1
+3.7
62%
44%
Last 30 away (14)
38.7
33.5
72.2
+5.2
79%
43%
Last 10 (10)
39.8
36.4
76.2
+3.4
70%
60%
Last 5 (5)
42.4
34.8
77.2
+7.6
80%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)
38.5
42.0
80.5
-3.5
50%
100%
vs Similar (11)
36.5
37.0
73.5
-0.5
55%
36%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)
41.3
32.8
74.1
+8.5
82%
41%
This opponent (Florida Atlantic) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Wright State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Wright State win
WRIG win
no forecast
@ 1.72
FLOR win
no forecast
@ 2.15
2nd half Spread Wright State -1.5 · main lineActual: Wright State -1.5
WRIG -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
FLOR +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 83.5 · main lineActual: Over 83.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Wright State (regulation)
WRIG
no forecast
@ 1.75
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
FLOR
no forecast
@ 2.20
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Wright State -4
72.3%
1.96
Pinnacle
2.03
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.89
-
-
+25.0pp
Won
Wright State -3.5
73.2%
1.86
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.80
+23.3pp
Won
Wright State -1
80.8%
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
-
+22.9pp
Won
Wright State -3
75.2%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.78
-
-
+22.9pp
Won
Wright State (regulation)
79.1%
1.60
Betano
1.60
Marathon Bet
1.59
-
-
-
+22.8pp
Won
Wright State -2
78.5%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.68
-
-
-
+21.9pp
Won
Wright State win
81.2%
1.57
Pinnacle
1.61
1xBet
1.59
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57
Marathon Bet
1.55
+21.4pp
Won
Wright State -2.5
75.9%
1.74
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.72
-
+21.4pp
Won
Wright State +1
82.6%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+21.2pp
Won
Wright State -1.5
79.2%
1.63
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.64
Betano
1.62
-
-
+20.8pp
Won
Wright State +1.5
82.9%
1.48
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+20.1pp
Won
Wright State +2
85.0%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+20.0pp
Won
Wright State +3
86.8%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+19.4pp
Won
Wright State +2.5
85.4%
1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+19.4pp
Won
Wright State +3.5
87.0%
1.35
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
Wright State +4
88.6%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Won
Wright State +4.5
88.8%
1.30
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+17.4pp
Won
Wright State +5.5
90.3%
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Won
Wright State +6.5
91.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Florida Atlantic under 79.5
72.8%
1.57
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
-
+15.4pp
Won
Florida Atlantic under 80.5
75.9%
1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Won
Wright State +11.5
96.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Won
Wright State over 77.5
72.5%
1.45
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
Wright State over 75.5
78.7%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Wright State over 76.5
75.7%
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Won
Wright State +16.5
98.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Wright State +21.5
99.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.5%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
-
Under 165.5
70.5%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Lost
Under 183.5
94.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Under 166
72.0%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Lost
Wright State under 100.5
95.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Under 166.5
72.6%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Lost
Under 173.5
84.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Under 178.5
90.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Under 168.5
76.4%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Wright State under 98.5
93.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Wright State under 96.5
90.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Lost
Over 133.5
92.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Florida Atlantic +23.5
88.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Lost
Wright State under 94.5
86.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-1.7pp
Lost
Florida Atlantic over 59.5
91.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Over 138.5
86.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Florida Atlantic over 60.5
89.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Florida Atlantic over 61.5
87.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
Wright State under 92.5
81.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Lost
Wright State under 91.5
79.0%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Lost
Wright State under 90.5
76.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Lost
Florida Atlantic over 62.5
85.6%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Over 143.5
79.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Florida Atlantic over 63.5
83.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.4pp
Won
Florida Atlantic over 64.5
80.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
Florida Atlantic +18.5
77.4%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-8.7pp
Lost
Florida Atlantic over 65.5
77.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-10.2pp
Won
Florida Atlantic over 66.5
74.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-11.4pp
Won
Florida Atlantic over 67.5
71.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-12.4pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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