Zenit Petersburg face Samara in the VTB United League on 11 November 2026, with the model rating Zenit as the clear favourite at 99% versus 1% for Samara, a reflection of Zenit's 6-3 record, 84.2 points per game and 77.2 allowed, and their undefeated 4-0 home slate with 94.0 points scored and 77.5 allowed, while Samara struggles at 0-8, 69.4 points per game and 97.1 allowed, with a 0-3 road record and 69.0 points per game. Zenit's last five games include a 94-86 home win over Enisey, a 83-72 away win over Dynamo Vladivostok and a recent 68-80 loss to CSKA Moscow away, whereas Samara's recent five have all been defeats, the most recent being a 65-99 home loss to Zenit. In head-to-head history Zenit has won all ten meetings, most recently 99-65 on 21 October 2026. The Pythia projection sets a 98-67 score, 165.1 total points, with Zenit covering the -31.5 line 48% of the time and the over on the 165.5 line 49% of the time, and no overtime expected. The game will likely confirm Zenit's dominance, as their offensive output far exceeds Samara's defensive frailties.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zenit Petersburg winWon
99.0%fair 1.01
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Samara winLost
1.0%fair 98.86
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 18:25 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Zenit Petersburg) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 165 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%). The market's main line is 162.
Over/Under 157Actual: Under 157
Over 157
69.5%
@ 1.48
Under 157
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.48
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 162 · main lineActual: Under 162
Over 162
57.4%
@ 1.87+7.0pp
Under 162
42.6%
@ 1.91-7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.85
SBO
1.80
Under
Marathon Be
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.84
Over/Under 167Actual: Under 167
Over 167
44.6%
@ 2.08+1.3pp
Under 167
55.4%
@ 1.67-1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
2.08
1xBet
2.08
Under
1xBet
1.67
Marathon Be
1.51
📊 3. Team Totals
Zenit Petersburg total 93Actual: Zenit Petersburg under 93
Over 93
69.7%
Under 93
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zenit Petersburg total 97 · main lineActual: Zenit Petersburg under 97
Over 97
54.2%
@ 1.87+4.2pp
Under 97
45.8%
@ 1.87-4.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Zenit Petersburg total 100.5Actual: Zenit Petersburg under 100.5
Over 100.5
40.4%
@ 2.07-3.5pp
Under 100.5
59.6%
@ 1.62+3.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.07
Under
1xBet
1.62
Samara total 65 · main lineActual: Samara under 65
Over 65
57.7%
@ 1.87+7.7pp
Under 65
42.3%
@ 1.87-7.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Samara total 69Actual: Samara under 69
Over 69
41.2%
Under 69
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Zenit Petersburg's side (positive = Zenit Petersburg win). Pythia's expected margin is +31.2; Zenit Petersburg win by 1+ in 99% of simulations.
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
2nd half: Zenit Petersburg (regulation)
94.2%
1.05
Marathon Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Q3: Zenit Petersburg (regulation)
84.3%
1.18
Marathon Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
1st half: Zenit Petersburg (regulation)
94.8%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Q2: Zenit Petersburg (regulation)
84.8%
1.10
Marathon Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Q1: Zenit Petersburg (regulation)
85.6%
1.09
Marathon Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Q1: Zenit Petersburg or draw
88.4%
1.04
Marathon Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
-
Won
Q2: Zenit Petersburg or draw
87.7%
1.05
Marathon Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
-
Won
Q3: Zenit Petersburg or draw
87.5%
1.11
Marathon Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
-
Lost
Zenit Petersburg -22.5
76.0%
1.24
Marathon Bet
1.24
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Zenit Petersburg -23
75.4%
1.25
Marathon Bet
1.25
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Samara +39.5
74.4%
1.28
Marathon Bet
1.28
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Over 154.5
74.4%
1.37
Marathon Bet
1.37
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Over 155
73.8%
1.38
Marathon Bet
1.38
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Samara +39
73.8%
1.30
Marathon Bet
1.30
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Zenit Petersburg -23.5
73.5%
1.25
Marathon Bet
1.25
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Zenit Petersburg -24
72.7%
1.27
Marathon Bet
1.27
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Over 155.5
72.3%
1.41
Marathon Bet
1.41
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Samara +38.5
71.8%
1.33
Marathon Bet
1.33
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Over 156
71.7%
1.43
Marathon Bet
1.43
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
Samara +38
71.0%
1.35
Marathon Bet
1.35
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Zenit Petersburg -24.5
70.8%
1.30
Marathon Bet
1.30
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Over 156.5
70.2%
1.46
Marathon Bet
1.46
-
-
-
-
-
Lost
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They take 60.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Their opponents take 59.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes. Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Samaratheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
They take 59.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Their opponents take 58.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of those shots are threes. Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Samaratheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
No box scores for this team yet.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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