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Zenit Petersburg vs Samara Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 16:30
Projected 98-67
Projected total 164.9
Final 92-56
27-12 23-13 19-20 23-11
Position#4
Record6-3
FormLWWWL
Points / game84.2
Allowed / game77.2
Zenit Petersburg 🏆
Russia
Vs
99%
■ ZPE 99%■ SAM 1%
Pythia win probability
Samara
Russia
Position#11
Record0-8
FormLLLLL
Points / game69.4
Allowed / game97.1
RussiaVTB United League· KSK Arena
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Zenit Petersburg v Samara
11 Nov 2026
ZPE92
SAM56
01 Feb 2026
ZPE113
SAM52
10 Dec 2025
ZPE95
SAM56
05 Mar 2025
ZPE115
SAM57
30 Oct 2024
ZPE92
SAM61
07 Feb 2024
ZPE109
SAM55
07 Dec 2023
ZPE96
SAM58
24 Nov 2022
ZPE93
SAM65
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Zenit Petersburg face Samara in the VTB United League on 11 November 2026, with the model rating Zenit as the clear favourite at 99% versus 1% for Samara, a reflection of Zenit's 6-3 record, 84.2 points per game and 77.2 allowed, and their undefeated 4-0 home slate with 94.0 points scored and 77.5 allowed, while Samara struggles at 0-8, 69.4 points per game and 97.1 allowed, with a 0-3 road record and 69.0 points per game. Zenit's last five games include a 94-86 home win over Enisey, a 83-72 away win over Dynamo Vladivostok and a recent 68-80 loss to CSKA Moscow away, whereas Samara's recent five have all been defeats, the most recent being a 65-99 home loss to Zenit. In head-to-head history Zenit has won all ten meetings, most recently 99-65 on 21 October 2026. The Pythia projection sets a 98-67 score, 165.1 total points, with Zenit covering the -31.5 line 48% of the time and the over on the 165.5 line 49% of the time, and no overtime expected. The game will likely confirm Zenit's dominance, as their offensive output far exceeds Samara's defensive frailties.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zenit Petersburg winWon
99.0%fair 1.01
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Samara winLost
1.0%fair 98.86
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 18:25 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Zenit PetersburgRussiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lokomotiv Kuban
#4
L
76-84
76
84
-8
H12/06
VTB United League
Uralmash Ekaterinburg
#5
W
92-68
92
68
+24
H25/09
VTB United League
Unics Kazan
#3
L
60-95
60
95
-35
A04/10
VTB United League
Parma Perm
#6
W
99-85
99
85
+14
H07/10
VTB United League
Saratov
#9
W
91-71
91
71
+20
H11/10
VTB United League
Lokomotiv Kuban
#2
L
72-73
72
73
-1
A18/10
VTB United League
Samara
#11
W
99-65
99
65
+34
A21/10
VTB United League
Enisey
#10
W
94-86 OT
94
86
+8
H26/10
VTB United League
Dynamo Vladivostok
#8
W
83-72
83
72
+11
A30/10
VTB United League
CSKA Moscow
#1
L
68-80
68
80
-12
A08/11
VTB United League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-19
20-26
17-18
19-21
23-24
19-14
25-13
25-17
13-31
14-18
6-29
27-17
23-19
20-25
25-19
31-22
18-13
28-16
21-17
24-25
24-22
15-24
13-15
20-12
31-19
17-13
27-19
24-14
20-16
25-24
14-25
23-17
14-20
19-24
31-14
19-14
21-25
15-20
18-18
14-17
161.3Avg total
83.4Scored
77.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)84.277.2161.4+7.067%
Season at home (4)94.077.5171.5+16.5100%
Season away (5)76.477.0153.4-0.640%
Last 10 (10)83.477.9161.3+5.560%
Last 5 (5)83.275.2158.4+8.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)68.582.8151.2-14.20%
vs Similar (8)80.877.6158.4+3.150%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)84.974.5159.4+10.472%
This opponent (Samara) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SamaraRussiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nizhny Novgorod
#9
L
76-78
76
78
-2
H20/04
VTB United League
MBA Moscow
#7
L
61-79
61
79
-18
A22/04
VTB United League
Saratov
#9
L
69-77
69
77
-8
A26/09
VTB United League
Dynamo Vladivostok
#8
L
84-98
84
98
-14
H04/10
VTB United League
Unics Kazan
#3
L
62-117
62
117
-55
H07/10
VTB United League
Enisey
#10
L
70-91
70
91
-21
A14/10
VTB United League
Uralmash Ekaterinburg
#5
L
75-94
75
94
-19
H17/10
VTB United League
Zenit Petersburg
#4
L
65-99
65
99
-34
H21/10
VTB United League
Lokomotiv Kuban
#2
L
62-92
62
92
-30
H25/10
VTB United League
Parma Perm
#6
L
68-109
68
109
-41
A03/11
VTB United League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-24
18-25
23-13
18-16
22-20
14-21
16-21
9-17
19-7
17-24
9-27
24-19
23-34
27-20
19-26
15-18
15-25
14-25
21-34
12-33
20-25
16-14
14-30
20-22
23-17
17-29
16-20
19-28
19-31
13-17
19-27
14-24
17-21
14-28
15-24
16-19
13-23
19-29
21-25
15-32
162.6Avg total
69.2Scored
93.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)69.497.1166.5-27.80%
Season at home (5)69.6100.0169.6-30.40%
Season away (3)69.092.3161.3-23.30%
Last 10 (10)69.293.4162.6-24.20%
Last 5 (5)68.097.0165.0-29.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)70.195.1165.2-25.03%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Zenit Petersburg) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%0%1201%1252%1303%1355%1407%1459%15011%15512%16012%16511%17010%1757%1805%1853%1902%1951%2000%205
1%1253%1357%14511%15512%16510%1755%1852%1950%205
Pythia expects about 165 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%). The market's main line is 162.
Over/Under 157Actual: Under 157
Over 157
69.5%
@ 1.48
Under 157
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.48
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 162 · main lineActual: Under 162
Over 162
57.4%
@ 1.87+7.0pp
Under 162
42.6%
@ 1.91-7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.85
SBO
1.80
Under
Marathon Be
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.84
Over/Under 167Actual: Under 167
Over 167
44.6%
@ 2.08+1.3pp
Under 167
55.4%
@ 1.67-1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
2.08
1xBet
2.08
Under
1xBet
1.67
Marathon Be
1.51

📊 3. Team Totals

Zenit Petersburg total 93Actual: Zenit Petersburg under 93
Over 93
69.7%
Under 93
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zenit Petersburg total 97 · main lineActual: Zenit Petersburg under 97
Over 97
54.2%
@ 1.87+4.2pp
Under 97
45.8%
@ 1.87-4.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Zenit Petersburg total 100.5Actual: Zenit Petersburg under 100.5
Over 100.5
40.4%
@ 2.07-3.5pp
Under 100.5
59.6%
@ 1.62+3.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.07
Under
1xBet
1.62
Samara total 65 · main lineActual: Samara under 65
Over 65
57.7%
@ 1.87+7.7pp
Under 65
42.3%
@ 1.87-7.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Samara total 69Actual: Samara under 69
Over 69
41.2%
Under 69
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%10%0%-30%+01%+31%+62%+93%+125%+156%+187%+219%+249%+279%+3010%+338%+367%+396%+425%+454%+483%+512%+541%+571%+60
0%-31%+32%+95%+157%+219%+2710%+337%+395%+453%+511%+57
Margin from Zenit Petersburg's side (positive = Zenit Petersburg win). Pythia's expected margin is +31.2; Zenit Petersburg win by 1+ in 99% of simulations.
Spread Zenit Petersburg -34Actual: Zenit Petersburg -34
ZPE -34
40.8%
@ 2.33+1.1pp
SAM +34
59.2%
@ 1.65-1.1pp
Best 5 market prices
ZPE
Pinnacle
2.33
Marathon Be
2.11
1xBet
2.11
SAM
Marathon Be
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.53
Spread Zenit Petersburg -31 · main lineActual: Zenit Petersburg -31
ZPE -31
50.7%
@ 1.83-0.3pp
SAM +31
49.3%
@ 1.99+0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
ZPE
Pinnacle
1.83
SBO
1.82
Marathon Be
1.80
1xBet
1.80
SAM
Marathon Be
1.99
1xBet
1.99
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.88
Spread Zenit Petersburg -28Actual: Zenit Petersburg -28
ZPE -28
60.5%
@ 1.50-0.4pp
SAM +28
39.5%
@ 2.34+0.4pp
Best 5 market prices
ZPE
Marathon Be
1.50
1xBet
1.50
SAM
Marathon Be
2.34
1xBet
2.34

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: -3.9-3.9Q2Q2: -1.2-1.2Q2: -6.3-6.3Q3Q3: +1.0+1.0Q3: -7.4-7.4Q4Q4: +5.0+5.0Q4: -6.6-6.6
-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: -3.9-3.9Q2Q2: -1.2-1.2Q2: -6.3-6.3Q3Q3: +1.0+1.0Q3: -7.4-7.4Q4Q4: +5.0+5.0Q4: -6.6-6.6
Zenit PetersburgSamara
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Zenit PetersburgLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lokomotiv Kuban
#4
L
40-45
40
45
-5
H12/06
VTB United League
Uralmash Ekaterinburg
#5
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H25/09
VTB United League
Unics Kazan
#3
L
27-49
27
49
-22
A04/10
VTB United League
Parma Perm
#6
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H07/10
VTB United League
Saratov
#9
W
46-29
46
29
+17
H11/10
VTB United League
Lokomotiv Kuban
#2
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A18/10
VTB United League
Samara
#11
W
48-32
48
32
+16
A21/10
VTB United League
Enisey
#10
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H26/10
VTB United League
Dynamo Vladivostok
#8
L
33-44
33
44
-11
A30/10
VTB United League
CSKA Moscow
#1
L
36-45
36
45
-9
A08/11
VTB United League
81.1Avg total
39.9Scored
41.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 81.5
Last 30 (30)42.138.980.9+3.263%43%
Last 30 at home (15)42.938.481.3+4.567%53%
Last 30 away (15)41.339.380.6+1.960%33%
Last 10 (10)39.941.281.1-1.340%40%
Last 5 (5)40.241.481.6-1.240%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)33.845.879.5-12.00%25%
vs Similar (8)44.136.280.4+7.975%62%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)43.038.581.5+4.572%39%
This opponent (Samara) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SamaraLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nizhny Novgorod
#9
L
35-49
35
49
-14
H20/04
VTB United League
MBA Moscow
#7
L
36-41
36
41
-5
A22/04
VTB United League
Saratov
#9
W
36-31
36
31
+5
A26/09
VTB United League
Dynamo Vladivostok
#8
L
50-54
50
54
-4
H04/10
VTB United League
Unics Kazan
#3
L
29-50
29
50
-21
H07/10
VTB United League
Enisey
#10
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A14/10
VTB United League
Uralmash Ekaterinburg
#5
L
40-46
40
46
-6
H17/10
VTB United League
Zenit Petersburg
#4
L
32-48
32
48
-16
H21/10
VTB United League
Lokomotiv Kuban
#2
L
31-49
31
49
-18
H25/10
VTB United League
Parma Perm
#6
L
32-52
32
52
-20
A03/11
VTB United League
81.6Avg total
35.7Scored
45.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 81.5
Last 30 (30)34.947.382.2-12.417%53%
Last 30 at home (18)35.148.683.7-13.611%56%
Last 30 away (12)34.645.379.9-10.825%50%
Last 10 (10)35.745.981.6-10.210%40%
Last 5 (5)34.246.881.0-12.60%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)34.947.382.2-12.417%53%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Zenit Petersburg) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Zenit Petersburg -16.5 · main lineActual: Zenit Petersburg -16.5
ZPE -16.5
47.5%
@ 1.85-3.0pp
SAM +16.5
52.4%
@ 1.89+3.0pp
1st half Over/Under 81.5 · main lineActual: Under 81.5
Over
55.1%
@ 1.87+5.1pp
Under
44.9%
@ 1.87-5.1pp
Zenit Petersburg 1st half total 49.5 · main lineActual: Zenit Petersburg over 49.5
Over
49.3%
@ 1.86-1.0pp
Under
50.7%
@ 1.88+1.0pp
Samara 1st half total 32 · main lineActual: Samara under 32
Over
58.7%
@ 1.91+9.8pp
Under
41.3%
@ 1.83-9.8pp
1st half Spread Zenit Petersburg -17.5Actual: Zenit Petersburg -17.5
ZPE -17.5
43.4%
@ 1.85-7.1pp
SAM +17.5
56.6%
@ 1.89+7.1pp
1st half Over/Under 83.5Actual: Under 83.5
Over
47.3%
@ 2.07+2.6pp
Under
52.7%
@ 1.67-2.6pp
1st half Spread Zenit Petersburg -18.5Actual: Zenit Petersburg -18.5
ZPE -18.5
39.4%
@ 2.10-4.6pp
SAM +18.5
60.6%
@ 1.65+4.6pp
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Zenit Petersburg (regulation)
ZPE
94.8%
@ 1.02+3.7pp
Draw
1.1%
@ 40.00-1.2pp
SAM
4.1%
@ 14.00-2.5pp

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
🔒 3 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
2nd half: Zenit Petersburg (regulation)94.2%1.05
Marathon Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.05		---+7.3ppWon
Q3: Zenit Petersburg (regulation)84.3%1.18
Marathon Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18		---+6.9ppWon
1st half: Zenit Petersburg (regulation)94.8%1.02
1xBet
1.02		----+3.7ppWon
Q2: Zenit Petersburg (regulation)84.8%1.10
Marathon Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.10		---+1.9ppWon
Q1: Zenit Petersburg (regulation)85.6%1.09
Marathon Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.09		---+1.7ppWon
Q1: Zenit Petersburg or draw88.4%1.04
Marathon Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.04		----Won
Q2: Zenit Petersburg or draw87.7%1.05
Marathon Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.05		----Won
Q3: Zenit Petersburg or draw87.5%1.11
Marathon Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11		----Lost
Zenit Petersburg -22.576.0%1.24
Marathon Bet
1.24		-----Won
Zenit Petersburg -2375.4%1.25
Marathon Bet
1.25		-----Won
Samara +39.574.4%1.28
Marathon Bet
1.28		-----Won
Over 154.574.4%1.37
Marathon Bet
1.37		-----Lost
Over 15573.8%1.38
Marathon Bet
1.38		-----Lost
Samara +3973.8%1.30
Marathon Bet
1.30		-----Won
Zenit Petersburg -23.573.5%1.25
Marathon Bet
1.25		-----Won
Zenit Petersburg -2472.7%1.27
Marathon Bet
1.27		-----Won
Over 155.572.3%1.41
Marathon Bet
1.41		-----Lost
Samara +38.571.8%1.33
Marathon Bet
1.33		-----Won
Over 15671.7%1.43
Marathon Bet
1.43		-----Lost
Samara +3871.0%1.35
Marathon Bet
1.35		-----Won
Zenit Petersburg -24.570.8%1.30
Marathon Bet
1.30		-----Won
Over 156.570.2%1.46
Marathon Bet
1.46		-----Lost
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Zenit Petersburgtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Zenit Petersburg: 76.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.7 pts a game · 19% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.916.5
47.3%
-33.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.99.6
37.1%
-28.8
🏀 Free throws18.214.7
80.8%
-14.7
They take 60.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Samaratheir own shots, last 10 games
No box scores for this team yet.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
10
Zenit Petersburg wins
0
Samara wins
DateGameScore
21/10/26Samara v Zenit Petersburg65-99
30/03/26Samara v Zenit Petersburg63-100
01/02/26Zenit Petersburg v Samara113-52
10/12/25Zenit Petersburg v Samara95-56
15/10/25Samara v Zenit Petersburg64-113
05/03/25Zenit Petersburg v Samara115-57
24/01/25Samara v Zenit Petersburg73-106
08/01/25Samara v Zenit Petersburg54-103
30/10/24Zenit Petersburg v Samara92-61
07/02/24Zenit Petersburg v Samara109-55
Zenit Petersburglast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26ACSKA Moscow68-80
30/10/26ADynamo Vladivostok83-72
26/10/26HEnisey94-86 OT
21/10/26ASamara99-65
18/10/26ALokomotiv Kuban72-73
11/10/26HSaratov91-71
07/10/26HParma Perm99-85
04/10/26AUnics Kazan60-95
25/09/26HUralmash Ekaterinburg92-68
12/06/26HLokomotiv Kuban76-84
Samaralast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26AParma Perm68-109
25/10/26HLokomotiv Kuban62-92
21/10/26HZenit Petersburg65-99
17/10/26HUralmash Ekaterinburg75-94
14/10/26AEnisey70-91
07/10/26HUnics Kazan62-117
04/10/26HDynamo Vladivostok84-98
26/09/26ASaratov69-77
22/04/26AMBA Moscow61-79
20/04/26HNizhny Novgorod76-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Zenit Petersburg
VTB United League 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL67%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayLLWWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %67%100%40%
Points / game84.294.076.4
Allowed / game77.277.577.0
Point differential+7.0+16.5-0.6
Avg total161.4171.5153.4
Over 16233%50%20%
Win by 10+56%75%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %11%25%0%
Samara
VTB United League 2026-27
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLLLLL0%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games853
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game69.469.669.0
Allowed / game97.1100.092.3
Point differential-27.8-30.4-23.3
Avg total166.5169.6161.3
Over 16262%80%33%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 CSKA Moscow990100%92.170.7+21.4
2 Lokomotiv Kuban87188%91.476.5+14.9
3 Unics Kazan97278%93.174.8+18.3
4 Zenit Petersburg96367%84.277.2+7.0
5 Uralmash Ekaterinburg84450%83.984.6-0.8
6 Parma Perm94544%87.486.4+1.0
7 MBA Moscow83538%84.889.4-4.6
8 Dynamo Vladivostok93633%87.395.4-8.1
9 Saratov103730%72.888.8-16.0
10 Enisey71614%81.488.7-7.3
11 Samara8080%69.497.1-27.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Zenit Petersburg2723192392
Samara1213201156
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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