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Abilene Christian vs Stephen F. Austin Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Projected 71-75
Projected total 146.0
Final 71-76
29-35 42-41
Position#304
Record1-1
FormLWLLW
Points / game71.0
Allowed / game87.5
Abilene Christian
USA
Vs
39%
61%
■ ABIL 39%■ STEP 61%
Pythia win probability
Stephen F. Austin 🏆
USA
Position#5
Record2-0
FormWWLWW
Points / game104.5
Allowed / game46.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Abilene Christian v Stephen F. Austin
11 Nov 2026
ABIL71
STEP76
31 Dec 2024
ABIL57
STEP62
02 Dec 2023
ABIL74
STEP79
22 Feb 2023
ABIL89
STEP91
06 Jan 2022
ABIL58
STEP64
27 Jan 2021
ABIL82
STEP62
03 Mar 2020
ABIL72
STEP77
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Abilene Christian will host Stephen F. Austin on 11 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the Roadies who are 2-0 this season, averaging 104.5 points and allowing 46.5, and holding a league position of 2, while the Wildcats are 1-1, scoring 71.0 and conceding 87.5 and sitting at 244. The Wildcats have a perfect 1-0 home record, 83.0 points for and 81.0 against, but have lost twice in their last five, including a 59-94 defeat to Colorado and a 74-80 loss to Utah Tech, and their most recent home win was a narrow 83-81 victory over Lamar. Stephen F. Austin have won eight of the ten meetings, most recently 76-66 in 2025, and their last five games include four wins and one loss. Pythia projects a 71-75 score, a total of 146.0, with a 39% chance for the Wildcats and 61% for the Roadies; the home line is 4.0 with a 51% probability of covering, and the over/under 142.5 carries a 58% chance of the over, while a 5% chance of overtime is noted. The Roadies' dominant offensive output and the Wildcats' recent defensive struggles suggest a close contest that could swing on a single possession.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Abilene Christian winLost
38.6%fair 2.59
Best odds3.12
Implied30.8%
Edge+7.8pp
Stephen F. Austin winWon
61.4%fair 1.63
Best odds1.40
Implied69.2%
Edge-7.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Abilene ChristianUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tarleton
#255
L
62-65 OT
62
65
-3
A17/02
NCAA
Southern Utah
#329
W
87-83
87
83
+4
H21/02
NCAA
Utah Tech
#158
L
81-85
81
85
-4
A27/02
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
L
67-74
67
74
-7
A28/02
NCAA
California Baptist
#41
L
48-87
48
87
-39
A06/03
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
L
57-64
57
64
-7
H08/03
NCAA
Tarleton
#255
W
84-78
84
78
+6
H12/03
NCAA
Utah Tech
#158
L
74-80
74
80
-6
A13/03
NCAA
Colorado
#162
L
59-94
59
94
-35
A03/11
NCAA
Lamar
#118
W
83-81
83
81
+2
H07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
26-22
32-36
38-48
49-35
38-47
43-38
32-34
35-40
19-49
29-38
33-25
24-39
39-25
45-53
28-46
46-34
34-36
25-58
39-31
44-50
149.3Avg total
70.2Scored
79.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)71.087.5158.5-16.550%
Season at home (1)83.081.0164.0+2.0100%
Season away (1)59.094.0153.0-35.00%
Last 10 (10)70.279.1149.3-8.930%
Last 5 (5)71.479.4150.8-8.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)65.277.5142.7-12.327%
vs Similar (12)73.575.5149.0-2.042%
vs Weaker (3)73.056.0129.0+17.0100%
This opponent (Stephen F. Austin) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Stephen F. AustinUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UTRGV
#137
W
66-57
66
57
+9
A14/02
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
78-68
78
68
+10
A17/02
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
81-78
81
78
+3
H21/02
NCAA
New Orleans
#226
L
73-77
73
77
-4
H24/02
NCAA
Houston Christian
#297
W
77-56
77
56
+21
A28/02
NCAA
Incarnate Word
#287
W
76-68
76
68
+8
A03/03
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
60-58
60
58
+2
H10/03
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
L
59-76
59
76
-17
H11/03
NCAA
Lyon
#506
W
120-61
120
61
+59
H03/11
NCAA
Texas Lutheran
#501
W
89-32
89
32
+57
H07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
25-19
41-38
37-16
41-52
39-34
42-44
23-31
50-46
42-16
35-40
28-26
48-42
32-39
28-19
25-42
34-34
62-26
58-35
46-17
43-15
141.0Avg total
77.9Scored
63.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)104.546.5151.0+58.0100%
Season at home (2)104.546.5151.0+58.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)77.963.1141.0+14.880%
Last 5 (5)80.859.0139.8+21.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)63.367.3130.7-4.033%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)76.164.7140.8+11.492%
This opponent (Abilene Christian) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 139Actual: Over 139
Over 139
66.3%
Under 139
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 144 · main lineActual: Over 144
Over 144
54.3%
@ 1.93+4.3pp
Under 144
45.7%
@ 1.90-4.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.93
Marathon Be
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
1xBet
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
1xBet
1.82
Marathon Be
1.80
SBO
1.78
Over/Under 149Actual: Under 149
Over 149
42.0%
Under 149
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Abilene Christian total 65.5Actual: Abilene Christian over 65.5
Over 65.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
Under 65.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.37
Abilene Christian total 70 · main lineActual: Abilene Christian over 70
Over 70
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under 70
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Abilene Christian total 74Actual: Abilene Christian under 74
Over 74
39.2%
Under 74
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stephen F. Austin total 69Actual: Stephen F. Austin over 69
Over 69
71.6%
Under 69
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stephen F. Austin total 73 · main lineActual: Stephen F. Austin over 73
Over 73
56.6%
@ 1.85+5.8pp
Under 73
43.4%
@ 1.88-5.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Stephen F. Austin total 77Actual: Stephen F. Austin under 77
Over 77
40.4%
Under 77
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Abilene Christian +1Actual: Stephen F. Austin -1
ABIL +1
39.7%
STEP -1
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
ABIL
No market prices yet.
STEP
No market prices yet.
Spread Abilene Christian +4 · main lineActual: Stephen F. Austin -4
ABIL +4
51.2%
@ 1.93+1.8pp
STEP -4
48.8%
@ 1.86-1.8pp
Best 5 market prices
ABIL
SBO
1.93
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.86
STEP
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.83
SBO
1.78
Spread Abilene Christian +7Actual: Abilene Christian +7
ABIL +7
62.8%
@ 1.82+10.1pp
STEP -7
37.2%
@ 2.03-10.1pp
Best 5 market prices
ABIL
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathon Be
1.80
STEP
Pinnacle
2.03
Marathon Be
1.91

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: -3.7-3.71st half: +9.3+9.32nd half2nd half: -4.9-4.92nd half: +5.5+5.5
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: -3.7-3.71st half: +9.3+9.32nd half2nd half: -4.9-4.92nd half: +5.5+5.5
Abilene ChristianStephen F. Austin
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Abilene ChristianLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tarleton
#255
W
26-22
26
22
+4
A17/02
NCAA
Southern Utah
#329
L
38-48
38
48
-10
H21/02
NCAA
Utah Tech
#158
L
38-47
38
47
-9
A27/02
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
L
32-34
32
34
-2
A28/02
NCAA
California Baptist
#41
L
19-49
19
49
-30
A06/03
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
W
33-25
33
25
+8
H08/03
NCAA
Tarleton
#255
W
39-25
39
25
+14
H12/03
NCAA
Utah Tech
#158
L
28-46
28
46
-18
A13/03
NCAA
Colorado
#162
L
34-36
34
36
-2
A03/11
NCAA
Lamar
#118
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H07/11
NCAA
68.9Avg total
32.6Scored
36.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68
Last 30 (30)32.435.968.3-3.537%53%
Last 30 at home (15)33.933.967.7+0.053%53%
Last 30 away (15)30.937.968.9-7.020%53%
Last 10 (10)32.636.368.9-3.740%50%
Last 5 (5)34.632.667.2+2.060%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)30.935.966.9-5.027%47%
vs Similar (12)32.937.870.7-4.833%67%
vs Weaker (3)37.728.366.0+9.3100%33%
This opponent (Stephen F. Austin) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Stephen F. AustinLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UTRGV
#137
W
25-19
25
19
+6
A14/02
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
37-16
37
16
+21
A17/02
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H21/02
NCAA
New Orleans
#226
L
23-31
23
31
-8
H24/02
NCAA
Houston Christian
#297
W
42-16
42
16
+26
A28/02
NCAA
Incarnate Word
#287
W
28-26
28
26
+2
A03/03
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
L
32-39
32
39
-7
H10/03
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
L
25-42
25
42
-17
H11/03
NCAA
Lyon
#506
W
62-26
62
26
+36
H03/11
NCAA
Texas Lutheran
#501
W
46-17
46
17
+29
H07/11
NCAA
62.5Avg total
35.9Scored
26.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68
Last 30 (30)37.228.866.0+8.480%50%
Last 30 at home (17)38.129.267.4+8.976%59%
Last 30 away (13)36.128.264.3+7.885%38%
Last 10 (10)35.926.662.5+9.370%30%
Last 5 (5)38.630.068.6+8.660%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)31.331.763.0-0.367%33%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)36.629.065.6+7.680%52%
This opponent (Abilene Christian) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Stephen F. Austin win
ABIL win
no forecast
@ 2.62
STEP win
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Abilene Christian +3.5 · main lineActual: Stephen F. Austin -3.5
ABIL +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
STEP -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Over/Under 68 · main lineActual: Under 68
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Abilene Christian 1st half total 33 · main lineActual: Abilene Christian under 33
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Stephen F. Austin 1st half total 35 · main linePush
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
1st half Over/Under 66.5Actual: Under 66.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.05
Under
no forecast
@ 1.75
1st half Spread Abilene Christian +2.5Actual: Stephen F. Austin -2.5
ABIL +2.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
STEP -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
1st half Spread Abilene Christian +4.5Actual: Stephen F. Austin -4.5
ABIL +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
STEP -4.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Spread Abilene Christian +1.5Actual: Stephen F. Austin -1.5
ABIL +1.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
STEP -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Abilene Christian +5.5Actual: Stephen F. Austin -5.5
ABIL +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
STEP -5.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half Over/Under 64.5Actual: Under 64.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.44
Under
no forecast
@ 2.55
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Under 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.35
Under
no forecast
@ 1.52
1st half Spread Abilene Christian +6.5Actual: Abilene Christian +6.5
ABIL +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
STEP -6.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Spread Abilene Christian +7.5Actual: Abilene Christian +7.5
ABIL +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.38
STEP -7.5
no forecast
@ 2.77
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Stephen F. Austin (regulation)
ABIL
no forecast
@ 2.79
Draw
no forecast
@ 21.00
STEP
no forecast
@ 1.53

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
ABIL win + total 143.5
🔒 Pro
STEP win + total 143.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: ABIL leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Abilene Christian +14.583.7%1.28
Betano
1.28		----+11.1ppWon
Abilene Christian +9.570.7%1.52
Betano
1.52		----+10.0ppWon
Abilene Christian +13.581.5%1.29
Betano
1.29		----+9.9ppWon
Abilene Christian +12.579.1%1.33
Betano
1.33		----+9.9ppWon
Abilene Christian +10.573.7%1.44
Betano
1.44		----+9.8ppWon
Abilene Christian +11.576.5%1.38
Betano
1.38		----+9.8ppWon
Over 135.573.4%1.36
Betano
1.36		----+5.7ppWon
Stephen F. Austin over 68.572.6%1.34
Betano
1.34		----+5.0ppWon
Over 136.571.3%1.38
Betano
1.38		----+4.6ppWon
Overtime: no94.8%1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02		---+4.2ppWon
Stephen F. Austin +4.574.0%1.27
Betano
1.27		----+1.5ppWon
Stephen F. Austin +3.570.9%1.31
Betano
1.31		----+0.6ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Abilene Christian wins
8
Stephen F. Austin wins
DateGameScore
15/11/25Stephen F. Austin v Abilene Christian76-66
31/12/24Abilene Christian v Stephen F. Austin57-62
14/03/24Stephen F. Austin v Abilene Christian60-57
17/02/24Stephen F. Austin v Abilene Christian62-63
02/12/23Abilene Christian v Stephen F. Austin74-79 OT
23/02/23Abilene Christian v Stephen F. Austin89-91 OT
30/12/22Stephen F. Austin v Abilene Christian75-68
11/03/22Stephen F. Austin v Abilene Christian62-76
26/02/22Stephen F. Austin v Abilene Christian73-71
07/01/22Abilene Christian v Stephen F. Austin58-64
Abilene Christianlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HLamar83-81
03/11/26AColorado59-94
13/03/26AUtah Tech74-80
12/03/26HTarleton84-78
08/03/26HUT Arlington57-64
06/03/26ACalifornia Baptist48-87
28/02/26AUtah Valley State67-74
27/02/26AUtah Tech81-85
21/02/26HSouthern Utah87-83
17/02/26ATarleton62-65 OT
Stephen F. Austinlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HTexas Lutheran89-32
03/11/26HLyon120-61
11/03/26HMcNeese State59-76
10/03/26HTexas A&M-CC60-58
03/03/26AIncarnate Word76-68
28/02/26AHouston Christian77-56
24/02/26HNew Orleans73-77
21/02/26HNicholls State81-78
17/02/26ATexas A&M-CC78-68
14/02/26AUTRGV66-57

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Abilene Christian
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLW50%
HomeW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game71.083.059.0
Allowed / game87.581.094.0
Point differential-16.5+2.0-35.0
Avg total158.5164.0153.0
Over 144100%100%100%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Stephen F. Austin
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game104.5104.5-
Allowed / game46.546.5-
Point differential+58.0+58.0-
Avg total151.0151.0-
Over 14450%50%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Western Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Southern Utah330100%124.757.0+67.7
2 Utah Valley State220100%92.578.0+14.5
3 UT Arlington43175%89.069.2+19.8
4 Tarleton32167%84.071.0+13.0
5 Abilene Christian21150%71.087.5-16.5
6 Utah Tech31233%83.090.0-7.0
7 California Baptist2020%65.583.5-18.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southland conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Stephen F. Austin220100%104.546.5+58.0
2 Houston Christian330100%89.762.7+27.0
3 Lamar32167%109.067.3+41.7
4 McNeese State32167%100.380.7+19.7
5 Texas A&M-CC32167%74.761.7+13.0
6 UTRGV32167%71.362.0+9.3
7 New Orleans21150%73.582.5-9.0
8 Nicholls State31233%78.767.7+11.0
9 SE Louisiana31233%64.387.3-23.0
10 Northwestern St.41325%64.277.8-13.5
11 Incarnate Word4040%60.879.2-18.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Abilene Christian294271
Stephen F. Austin354176
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