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Academica vs Barcelos Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 18:00
Projected 72-78
Projected total 150.0
Final 87-55
21-19 22-16 22-10 22-10
Position#16
Record0-6
FormLLLLL
Points / game79.3
Allowed / game88.0
Academica 🏆
Portugal
Vs
31%
69%
■ ACAD 31%■ BARC 69%
Pythia win probability
Barcelos
Portugal
Position#14
Record2-4
FormWLLWL
Points / game68.5
Allowed / game75.8
PortugalProligaRound 7· Pavilhão Multidesportos Dr. Mário Mexia
Other2026-27
Meetings · Academica v Barcelos
14 Nov 2026
ACAD87
BARC55
24 Mar 2013
ACAD81
BARC74
12 Nov 2011
ACAD79
BARC56
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Academica will host Barcelos on 14 November 2026 in the Proliga, with the model favouring Barcelos at 69% to 31% for the home side. Academica has gone 0-6 this season, averaging 79.3 points and conceding 88.0, while Barcelos sits 2-4, scoring 68.5 and allowing 75.8; the home side has been winless at home (0-2, 71.0-76.0) and has lost its last five (0-5), with recent defeats to Galitos Aveiro 80-98, Sampaense 99-105 and Galitos Barreiro 80-88, all away. Barcelos has a 1-2 road record (73.3-75.0) and a 2-3 run in its last five, with a loss to Illiabum 63-82 at home, a win over Benfica Lisboa B 80-70 away and a defeat to Sangalhos 47-69 at home. The teams have met four times, all victories for Academica, the last being an 81-74 win on 24 March 2013. Pythia projects a 72-78 score, a total of 150.0 points, and a 5% chance of overtime. The model gives Academica a 31% chance to win and Barcelos a 69% chance to win. The game will be decided by the 6-point margin the model expects.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Academica winWon
31.5%fair 3.18
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Barcelos winLost
68.5%fair 1.46
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AcademicaPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAcademica
Date
Competition
CB Queluz
#14
L
58-76
58
76
-18
58avg 58
H04/04
Proliga
Benfica Lisboa B
#12
L
59-63
59
63
-4
52avg 58
A19/04
Proliga
Lusitania
#3
L
79-85
79
85
-6
73avg 58
H26/04
Proliga
Sampaense
#10
L
81-85
81
85
-4
73avg 58
A02/05
Proliga
Illiabum
#7
L
75-85
75
85
-10
50avg 58
A03/10
Proliga
Santo Andre
#4
L
73-78
73
78
-5
61avg 58
H10/10
Proliga
CB Queluz
#9
L
69-74
69
74
-5
37avg 58
H17/10
Proliga
Galitos Barreiro
#2
L
80-88
80
88
-8
72avg 58
A24/10
Proliga
Sampaense
#8
L
99-105
99
105
-6
94avg 58
A30/10
Proliga
Galitos Aveiro
#3
L
80-98
80
98
-18
no box
A07/11
Proliga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-16
10-23
8-21
18-16
17-11
17-19
14-17
11-16
23-16
25-27
13-14
18-28
24-22
18-16
15-29
24-18
22-18
16-21
21-20
16-26
15-25
12-21
23-13
23-19
10-15
22-19
23-15
14-25
17-21
22-26
24-24
17-17
20-33
32-21
28-24
19-27
20-22
15-26
20-23
25-27
159.0Avg total
75.3Scored
83.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)79.388.0167.3-8.70%
Season at home (2)71.076.0147.0-5.00%
Season away (4)83.594.0177.5-10.50%
Last 10 (10)75.383.7159.0-8.40%
Last 5 (5)80.288.6168.8-8.40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (23)67.880.8148.6-13.013%
vs Similar (7)71.678.1149.7-6.60%
vs Weaker ◀no games
This opponent (Barcelos) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BarcelosPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBarcelos
Date
Competition
Ovarense
#3
L
68-72
68
72
-4
no box
A22/04
LPB
Ovarense
#3
W
71-62
71
62
+9
no box
A24/04
LPB
Ovarense
#3
L
65-69
65
69
-4
no box
H30/04
LPB
Ovarense
#3
L
56-66
56
66
-10
no box
H01/05
LPB
Lusitania
#5
L
68-73
68
73
-5
57avg 59
A05/10
Proliga
Barreirense
#13
W
81-79 OT
81
79
+2
72avg 59
H10/10
Proliga
Vasco Da Gama
#11
L
72-82
72
82
-10
59avg 59
A17/10
Proliga
Sangalhos
#1
L
47-69
47
69
-22
28avg 59
H24/10
Proliga
Benfica Lisboa B
#15
W
80-70
80
70
+10
76avg 59
A01/11
Proliga
Illiabum
#7
L
63-82
63
82
-19
no box
H07/11
Proliga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-21
14-12
18-22
10-17
20-15
17-16
19-20
15-11
18-22
20-16
9-13
18-18
10-17
12-19
17-10
17-20
15-19
20-15
16-23
17-16
22-10
19-14
17-18
13-29
20-35
27-10
12-14
13-23
9-15
23-22
6-18
9-14
18-24
24-18
17-15
21-13
23-20
15-24
12-18
13-20
139.5Avg total
67.1Scored
72.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)68.575.8144.3-7.333%
Season at home (3)63.776.7140.3-13.033%
Season away (3)73.375.0148.3-1.733%
Last 10 (10)67.172.4139.5-5.330%
Last 5 (5)68.676.4145.0-7.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)63.073.2136.2-10.119%
vs Similar (7)74.375.3149.6-1.057%
vs Weaker (2)66.056.0122.0+10.0100%
This opponent (Academica) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 149Actual: Under 149
Over 149
51.9%
Under 149
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 154Actual: Under 154
Over 154
39.6%
Under 154
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 159Actual: Under 159
Over 159
28.4%
Under 159
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Academica total 75Actual: Academica over 75
Over 75
38.8%
Under 75
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academica total 79Actual: Academica over 79
Over 79
24.9%
Under 79
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academica total 83Actual: Academica over 83
Over 83
14.4%
Under 83
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelos total 71.5Actual: Barcelos under 71.5
Over 71.5
73.1%
Under 71.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelos total 75.5Actual: Barcelos under 75.5
Over 75.5
58.7%
Under 75.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelos total 79.5Actual: Barcelos under 79.5
Over 79.5
43.1%
Under 79.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Academica -3Actual: Academica -3
ACAD -3
23.6%
BARC +3
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
ACAD
No market prices yet.
BARC
No market prices yet.
Spread Academica 0Actual: Academica 0
ACAD 0
31.5%
BARC 0
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
ACAD
No market prices yet.
BARC
No market prices yet.
Spread Academica +3Actual: Academica +3
ACAD +3
39.6%
BARC -3
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
ACAD
No market prices yet.
BARC
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.9-0.9Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: -3.0-3.0Q2: +2.5+2.5Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: -2.8-2.8Q4Q4: -3.4-3.4Q4: -3.5-3.5
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.9-0.9Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: -3.0-3.0Q2: +2.5+2.5Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: -2.8-2.8Q4Q4: -3.4-3.4Q4: -3.5-3.5
AcademicaBarcelos
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AcademicaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CB Queluz
#14
L
32-39
32
39
-7
H04/04
Proliga
Benfica Lisboa B
#12
W
34-30
34
30
+4
A19/04
Proliga
Lusitania
#3
W
48-43
48
43
+5
H26/04
Proliga
Sampaense
#10
W
42-38
42
38
+4
A02/05
Proliga
Illiabum
#7
L
38-39
38
39
-1
A03/10
Proliga
Santo Andre
#4
L
27-46
27
46
-19
H10/10
Proliga
CB Queluz
#9
L
32-34
32
34
-2
H17/10
Proliga
Galitos Barreiro
#2
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A24/10
Proliga
Sampaense
#8
L
52-54
52
54
-2
A30/10
Proliga
Galitos Aveiro
#3
L
35-48
35
48
-13
A07/11
Proliga
79.7Avg total
37.9Scored
41.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.640.775.3-6.027%-
Last 30 at home (15)33.738.872.5-5.127%-
Last 30 away (15)35.542.578.1-7.027%-
Last 10 (10)37.941.879.7-3.930%-
Last 5 (5)37.045.882.8-8.80%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (23)34.141.175.3-7.030%-
vs Similar (7)36.339.175.4-2.914%-
vs Weaker ◀no games
This opponent (Barcelos) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BarcelosLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ovarense
#3
W
40-33
40
33
+7
A22/04
LPB
Ovarense
#3
W
37-31
37
31
+6
A24/04
LPB
Ovarense
#3
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H30/04
LPB
Ovarense
#3
L
22-36
22
36
-14
H01/05
LPB
Lusitania
#5
W
35-34
35
34
+1
A05/10
Proliga
Barreirense
#13
W
41-24
41
24
+17
H10/10
Proliga
Vasco Da Gama
#11
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A17/10
Proliga
Sangalhos
#1
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H24/10
Proliga
Benfica Lisboa B
#15
D
42-42
42
42
+0
A01/11
Proliga
Illiabum
#7
L
38-44
38
44
-6
H07/11
Proliga
73.6Avg total
37.2Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.437.671.9-3.237%-
Last 30 at home (15)34.439.774.1-5.320%-
Last 30 away (15)34.335.569.8-1.153%-
Last 10 (10)37.236.473.6+0.850%-
Last 5 (5)40.038.478.4+1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)34.038.372.3-4.238%-
vs Similar (7)36.338.775.0-2.414%-
vs Weaker (2)31.026.057.0+5.0100%-
This opponent (Academica) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Academicatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Academica: 70.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀20%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers13.8 pts a game · 20% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.1 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.2 points a game
50%
30%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.620.7
52.3%
52.5%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers17.74.6
26.0%
30.6%13.8
🏀 Free throws22.715.1
66.5%
67.3%15.1
They take 57.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 17.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 31% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Barcelostheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Barcelos: 69.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.2 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.2 points a game
50%
30%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.615.6
47.9%
52.5%31.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.07.4
23.9%
30.6%22.2
🏀 Free throws23.215.8
68.1%
67.3%15.8
They take 63.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/5 games with a box score before 14 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Academica
LLLLLLLLLL
Barcelos
LWLLWLLLWL
#16
League position
#14
-8.3
Net rating
-5.9
83.4
Offensive rating
75.7
91.7
Defensive rating
81.7
48.2%
Effective FG%
42.0%
49.4%
Opp. effective FG%
44.0%
18.6%
Turnover %
18.7%
0.40
Free-throw rate
0.36
26.0%
3-point %
23.9%
50.6%
Assist %
57.4%
0%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence83.4 · 75.7Defence91.7 · 81.7Shooting48.2% · 42.0%3-point %26.0% · 23.9%Ball care18.6% · 18.7%Free throws0.40 · 0.36Form (last 10/10)0% · 30%
■ Academica   ■ Barcelos
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Academica wins
0
Barcelos wins
DateGameScore
24/03/13Academica v Barcelos81-74
08/12/12Barcelos v Academica85-88
11/02/12Barcelos v Academica70-72
12/11/11Academica v Barcelos79-56
Academicalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26AGalitos Aveiro80-98
30/10/26ASampaense99-105
24/10/26AGalitos Barreiro80-88
17/10/26HCB Queluz69-74
10/10/26HSanto Andre73-78
03/10/26AIlliabum75-85
02/05/26ASampaense81-85
26/04/26HLusitania79-85
19/04/26ABenfica Lisboa B59-63
04/04/26HCB Queluz58-76
Barceloslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HIlliabum63-82
01/11/26ABenfica Lisboa B80-70
24/10/26HSangalhos47-69
17/10/26AVasco Da Gama72-82
10/10/26HBarreirense81-79 OT
05/10/26ALusitania68-73
01/05/16HOvarense56-66
30/04/16HOvarense65-69
24/04/16AOvarense71-62
22/04/16AOvarense68-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Academica
Proliga 2026-27
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLL0%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game79.371.083.5
Allowed / game88.076.094.0
Point differential-8.7-5.0-10.5
Avg total167.3147.0177.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Barcelos
Proliga 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL33%
HomeWLL33%
AwayLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %33%33%33%
Points / game68.563.773.3
Allowed / game75.876.775.0
Point differential-7.3-13.0-1.7
Avg total144.3140.3148.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%0%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %17%33%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sangalhos65183%75.060.5+14.5
2 Galitos Aveiro75271%78.973.6+5.3
3 Santo Andre75271%78.174.4+3.7
4 Lusitania64267%81.372.3+9.0
5 Sampaense64267%85.779.2+6.5
6 Galitos Barreiro64267%74.373.0+1.3
7 Galomar53260%77.269.0+8.2
8 Maia53260%86.888.2-1.4
9 Illiabum74357%74.174.4-0.3
10 CB Queluz74357%72.172.6-0.4
11 Vasco Da Gama62433%85.888.8-3.0
12 Barcelos62433%68.575.8-7.3
13 Ginasio Olhanense72529%84.788.4-3.7
14 Barreirense72529%75.083.9-8.9
15 Benfica Lisboa B61517%67.780.7-13.0
16 Academica6060%79.388.0-8.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Academica2122222287
Barcelos1916101055
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