Air Force hosts Idaho State on 8 November 2026 in a low-scoring NCAA clash that the model predicts will see few points as both teams lean on tight defence, with Air Force averaging 80.0 allowed per game and Idaho State 93.5. Air Force is 1-1 this season, 89.0 points per game and 80.0 allowed, and has a perfect 1-0 home record with a 107-58 win over Calumet College, while Idaho State is 0-2, 60.0 points per game and 93.5 allowed, having lost to Wyoming, Utah State and Portland State in recent road outings. The only prior meeting ended 59-48 in favour of Air Force on 27 November 2021, giving the Falcons a 1-0 edge. Pythia favours Air Force with a 68% chance of victory and 32% for Idaho State, projecting a 78-73 score and 150.8 total points; the home team line is -6.0 with a 49% probability of covering, and the over/under 157.0 carries a 34% chance of the over, with a 5% likelihood of overtime. The game will hinge on Air Force's defensive dominance and Idaho State's struggle to keep pace.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Air Force winWon
68.5%fair 1.46
Best odds1.39
Implied69.2%
Edge-0.7pp
Idaho State winLost
31.5%fair 3.17
Best odds3.12
Implied30.8%
Edge+0.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 07 Nov 14:18 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Air Force) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152Actual: Over 152
Over 152
46.3%
@ 1.44-18.2pp
Under 152
53.7%
@ 2.62+18.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.62
Over/Under 157 · main lineActual: Over 157
Over 157
34.4%
@ 1.86-18.3pp
Under 157
65.6%
@ 2.40+18.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.67
Bet365
1.52
Under
Bet365
2.40
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Over/Under 162Actual: Over 162
Over 162
24.0%
@ 1.97-24.4pp
Under 162
76.0%
@ 1.85+24.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.96
SBO
1.96
Marathon Be
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Be
1.79
SBO
1.78
📊 3. Team Totals
Air Force total 79.5Actual: Air Force over 79.5
Over 79.5
44.5%
@ 1.39-20.6pp
Under 79.5
55.5%
@ 2.60+20.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.60
Air Force total 83.5 · main lineActual: Air Force over 83.5
Over 83.5
29.7%
@ 1.90-20.3pp
Under 83.5
70.3%
@ 1.91+20.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.85
Air Force total 87.5Actual: Air Force over 87.5
Over 87.5
17.7%
@ 2.62-18.6pp
Under 87.5
82.3%
@ 1.44+18.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.62
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Idaho State total 71.5Actual: Idaho State over 71.5
Over 71.5
54.1%
@ 1.25-19.6pp
Under 71.5
45.9%
@ 3.50+19.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.25
Under
1xBet
3.50
Idaho State total 75.5 · main lineActual: Idaho State over 75.5
Over 75.5
38.8%
@ 1.85-15.4pp
Under 75.5
61.2%
@ 2.38+15.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Under
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.18
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Idaho State total 79.5Actual: Idaho State over 79.5
Over 79.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
Under 79.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.10
Under
Betano
1.60
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Air Force -9Actual: Idaho State +9
AIR -9
37.3%
@ 2.50-0.2pp
IDAH +9
62.7%
@ 1.50+0.2pp
Best 5 market prices
AIR
Bet365
2.50
IDAH
Bet365
1.50
Spread Air Force -6 · main lineActual: Air Force -6
AIR -6
48.7%
@ 1.95-1.7pp
IDAH +6
51.3%
@ 1.93+1.7pp
Best 5 market prices
AIR
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
IDAH
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Spread Air Force -3Actual: Air Force -3
AIR -3
60.4%
@ 1.57+1.5pp
IDAH +3
39.6%
@ 2.25-1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
AIR
Bet365
1.57
IDAH
Bet365
2.25
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Air ForceIdaho State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Idaho State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Idaho StateLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
East. Washington
#261
L
37-43
37
43
-6
A13/02
NCAA
Idaho
#136
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A14/02
NCAA
Montana
#186
W
34-32
34
32
+2
H20/02
NCAA
Montana State
#144
L
41-46
41
46
-5
H21/02
NCAA
Weber State
#201
L
41-45
41
45
-4
H28/02
NCAA
Sacramento State
#324
L
36-37
36
37
-1
A03/03
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#335
L
28-35
28
35
-7
H08/03
NCAA
Portland State
#87
L
42-49
42
49
-7
A08/03
NCAA
Utah State
#15
L
29-57
29
57
-28
A03/11
NCAA
Wyoming
#134
L
42-49
42
49
-7
A07/11
NCAA
80.1Avg total
36.9Scored
43.2Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 84.5
Last 30 (30)
39.8
40.2
79.9
-0.4
43%
43%
Last 30 at home (16)
41.8
38.5
80.2
+3.2
62%
50%
Last 30 away (14)
37.5
42.1
79.6
-4.6
21%
36%
Last 10 (10)
36.9
43.2
80.1
-6.3
10%
50%
Last 5 (5)
35.4
45.4
80.8
-10.0
0%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)
38.2
42.5
80.7
-4.3
28%
56%
vs Similar (9)
41.7
40.0
81.7
+1.7
56%
33%
vs Weaker (2)
46.0
24.5
70.5
+21.5
100%
0%
This opponent (Air Force) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Air Force win
AIR win
no forecast
@ 1.57
IDAH win
no forecast
@ 2.42
2nd half Spread Air Force -2.5 · main lineActual: Air Force -2.5
AIR -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
IDAH +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half Over/Under 84.5 · main lineActual: Over 84.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Air Force (regulation)
AIR
no forecast
@ 1.62
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
IDAH
no forecast
@ 2.47
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 160
72.1%
1.98
Pinnacle
2.07
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.96
Marathon Bet
1.90
-
+26.1pp
Lost
Under 161
74.1%
1.90
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.94
SBO
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.86
-
+25.2pp
Lost
Under 160.5
72.6%
1.91
Pinnacle
2.00
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.92
WilliamHill
1.91
+25.1pp
Lost
Under 162
76.0%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.79
SBO
1.78
-
+24.4pp
Lost
Under 161.5
74.6%
1.85
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
+24.3pp
Lost
Under 163
77.8%
1.72
Pinnacle
1.76
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.70
-
-
+23.8pp
Lost
Under 162.5
76.4%
1.75
Pinnacle
1.80
Betano
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.74
SBO
1.74
+23.7pp
Lost
Under 164
79.6%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
+23.3pp
Lost
Under 163.5
78.2%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.66
Marathon Bet
1.66
-
+23.1pp
Lost
Air Force under 84
72.7%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+22.7pp
Lost
Under 159.5
70.6%
1.96
Bet365
2.05
Betano
2.02
WilliamHill
2.00
SBO
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
+22.6pp
Lost
Under 165
81.2%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+22.3pp
Lost
Under 164.5
79.9%
1.59
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+21.9pp
Lost
Under 165.5
81.5%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+21.2pp
Lost
Air Force under 84.5
73.6%
1.70
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.55
-
-
+21.0pp
Lost
Air Force under 85.5
76.7%
1.60
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Lost
Air Force under 83.5
70.3%
1.87
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.85
+20.3pp
Lost
Under 166
82.8%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+20.3pp
Lost
Under 166.5
83.0%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+20.1pp
Lost
Under 167
84.2%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+20.0pp
Lost
Idaho State under 78.5
71.6%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.81
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.52
-
-
+19.5pp
Lost
Under 168
85.6%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+19.4pp
Lost
Under 167.5
84.5%
1.42
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Lost
Under 168.5
85.8%
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Lost
Air Force under 87.5
82.3%
1.44
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.44
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Lost
Under 169
86.9%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+17.4pp
Lost
Under 169.5
87.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Lost
Air Force under 86.5
79.6%
1.45
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+16.3pp
Lost
Air Force under 88.5
84.8%
1.31
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+14.7pp
Lost
Air Force under 90.5
88.9%
1.21
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Won
Air Force under 93.5
93.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
Air Force under 91.5
90.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
Air Force under 92.5
92.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Air Force under 94.5
94.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Air Force under 96.5
96.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Under 172.5
90.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Air Force under 98.5
97.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Air Force under 103.5
99.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Air Force under 100.5
98.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Air Force under 101.5
98.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Under 182.5
96.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Under 177.5
94.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Air Force +14.5
95.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.2%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+4.6pp
-
Air Force +19.5
97.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Idaho State +21.5
91.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Idaho State +14.5
78.9%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Idaho State +16.5
83.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Air Force +13.5
94.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Idaho State +14
78.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Air Force +18.5
97.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Idaho State +20.5
90.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Idaho State +13.5
76.3%
1.27
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Idaho State +12.5
73.5%
1.31
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Air Force +9.5
89.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Idaho State +11.5
70.5%
1.37
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Idaho State +13
75.6%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
Idaho State +15.5
81.3%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Idaho State +12
72.7%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Won
Air Force +8.5
88.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Air Force +4.5
79.6%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Air Force +2.5
74.4%
1.27
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Air Force +2
73.5%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Air Force +3.5
76.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Air Force +1
70.2%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Air Force +1.5
70.9%
1.31
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Idaho State over 58.5
91.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Idaho State over 60.5
88.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Over 132.5
86.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Idaho State over 62.5
83.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Idaho State over 65.5
75.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Won
Idaho State over 64.5
78.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-10.2pp
Won
Over 137.5
78.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-10.6pp
Won
Idaho State over 66.5
72.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-13.8pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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