Air Force hosts Loyola Chicago on 11 November 2026 in a tightly contested NCAA game where neither side holds a clear edge, with Loyola Chicago just edging the probability bar at 53% to 47%. Air Force has gone 2-1 so far, averaging 89.0 points and allowing 80.7, while Loyola Chicago remains undefeated at 2-0, scoring 76.5 and conceding only 52.5; the Falcons are 2-0 at home with 98.0 points and 70.0 allowed, whereas the Crusaders are 4-1 over their last five outings, including a 76-53 win over West Georgia and a 77-52 victory over Citadel but a 59-64 loss to Davidson. The two teams have met once before, with the most recent encounter recorded as a win for Loyola Chicago. Pythia projects a close 74-75 finish, with a total of 148.8 points; the Falcons face an 8.5-point line and a 75% chance to cover, while the over on the 154.5 total has a 36% probability, and there is a 5% chance for overtime. The game will hinge on whether Air Force can maintain its defensive edge against Loyola Chicago's efficient scoring.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 89.0 | 80.7 | 169.7 | +8.3 | 67% |
| Season at home (2) | 98.0 | 70.0 | 168.0 | +28.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 71.0 | 102.0 | 173.0 | -31.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 70.0 | 82.3 | 152.3 | -12.3 | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.2 | 79.2 | 153.4 | -5.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (28) | 61.6 | 81.8 | 143.3 | -20.2 | 7% |
| vs Similar ◀ | no games | ||||
| vs Weaker (1) | 89.0 | 82.0 | 171.0 | +7.0 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 76.5 | 52.5 | 129.0 | +24.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 76.5 | 52.5 | 129.0 | +24.0 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 66.8 | 66.6 | 133.4 | +0.2 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 71.0 | 59.6 | 130.6 | +11.4 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (25) | 66.6 | 74.7 | 141.4 | -8.1 | 32% |
| vs Similar ◀ (4) | 64.0 | 71.0 | 135.0 | -7.0 | 25% |
| vs Weaker (1) | 76.0 | 53.0 | 129.0 | +23.0 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 74.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 29.1 | 39.7 | 68.8 | -10.7 | 10% | 37% |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 32.4 | 39.6 | 72.0 | -7.2 | 12% | 41% |
| Last 30 away (13) | 24.7 | 39.9 | 64.6 | -15.2 | 8% | 31% |
| Last 10 (10) | 30.8 | 41.0 | 71.8 | -10.2 | 10% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 31.6 | 40.2 | 71.8 | -8.6 | 20% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (28) | 27.9 | 40.1 | 67.9 | -12.2 | 7% | 32% |
| vs Similar ◀ | no games | |||||
| vs Weaker (1) | 41.0 | 42.0 | 83.0 | -1.0 | 0% | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 74.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 32.8 | 36.6 | 69.3 | -3.8 | 37% | 30% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 33.1 | 35.8 | 68.9 | -2.6 | 44% | 25% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 32.4 | 37.5 | 69.9 | -5.1 | 29% | 36% |
| Last 10 (10) | 30.3 | 31.6 | 61.9 | -1.3 | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 (5) | 33.0 | 28.0 | 61.0 | +5.0 | 80% | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (25) | 32.6 | 37.3 | 69.9 | -4.7 | 36% | 32% |
| vs Similar ◀ (4) | 31.5 | 34.0 | 65.5 | -2.5 | 25% | 25% |
| vs Weaker (1) | 42.0 | 29.0 | 71.0 | +13.0 | 100% | 0% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loyola Chicago under 80.5 | 71.2% | 2.83 | 2.90 | 2.75 | - | - | - | +38.8pp | Lost |
| Loyola Chicago under 82.5 | 77.4% | 2.17 | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.27 | 1.85 | 1.84 | +37.6pp | Lost |
| Air Force +9 | 76.9% | 2.01 | 2.28 | 2.05 | 2.02 | 1.88 | 1.83 | +34.9pp | Won |
| Air Force +8.5 | 74.8% | 2.01 | 2.38 | 2.15 | 2.12 | 1.89 | 1.88 | +34.6pp | Won |
| Air Force +9.5 | 77.6% | 1.94 | 2.17 | 2.05 | 1.98 | 1.95 | 1.83 | +33.5pp | Won |
| Air Force +10 | 79.6% | 1.97 | 2.07 | 1.95 | 1.94 | 1.93 | - | +33.2pp | Won |
| Air Force +10.5 | 80.1% | 1.88 | 1.97 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.89 | 1.85 | +31.3pp | Won |
| Air Force +7 | 70.9% | 2.45 | 2.50 | 2.39 | - | - | - | +31.1pp | Won |
| Air Force +11 | 82.0% | 1.80 | 1.87 | 1.83 | 1.75 | 1.74 | - | +30.7pp | Won |
| Air Force +8 | 74.0% | 2.04 | 2.22 | 2.18 | 1.95 | 1.95 | 1.88 | +30.4pp | Won |
| Air Force +7.5 | 71.8% | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.29 | - | - | +30.2pp | Won |
| Air Force +11.5 | 82.4% | 1.76 | 1.79 | 1.78 | 1.77 | 1.71 | - | +28.9pp | Won |
| Air Force +12 | 84.2% | 1.69 | 1.72 | 1.66 | - | - | - | +28.6pp | Won |
| Air Force +12.5 | 84.6% | 1.65 | 1.67 | 1.65 | 1.62 | - | - | +27.2pp | Won |
| Air Force +13.5 | 86.5% | 1.56 | 1.57 | 1.54 | - | - | - | +26.8pp | Won |
| Loyola Chicago under 82 | 76.7% | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.85 | - | - | - | +26.7pp | Lost |
| Air Force +13 | 86.2% | 1.55 | 1.55 | - | - | - | - | +26.5pp | Won |
| Under 158 | 72.0% | 1.99 | 2.08 | 2.07 | 1.83 | - | - | +26.3pp | Lost |
| Under 159 | 74.0% | 1.94 | 1.99 | 1.97 | 1.92 | 1.88 | - | +26.1pp | Lost |
| Under 157.5 | 70.6% | 1.99 | 2.12 | 2.10 | 2.07 | 1.87 | 1.80 | +25.8pp | Lost |
| Under 158.5 | 72.6% | 1.98 | 2.03 | 2.02 | 2.02 | 2.00 | 1.96 | +25.7pp | Lost |
| Under 160 | 75.9% | 1.85 | 1.89 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.80 | - | +25.7pp | Lost |
| Loyola Chicago under 81.5 | 74.4% | 2.03 | 2.50 | 1.91 | 1.87 | 1.83 | - | +25.4pp | Lost |
| Air Force +14.5 | 88.2% | 1.48 | 1.50 | 1.45 | - | - | - | +25.3pp | Won |
| Under 159.5 | 74.5% | 1.89 | 1.93 | 1.92 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.89 | +25.3pp | Lost |
| Under 161 | 77.8% | 1.77 | 1.81 | 1.81 | 1.75 | 1.71 | - | +25.1pp | Lost |
| Under 160.5 | 76.4% | 1.81 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.82 | 1.81 | 1.80 | +25.1pp | Lost |
| Air Force +14 | 88.0% | 1.47 | 1.47 | - | - | - | - | +24.6pp | Won |
| Air Force +15.5 | 89.7% | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.38 | - | - | - | +23.8pp | Won |
| Air Force +15 | 89.6% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +23.3pp | Won |
| Under 162 | 79.5% | 1.66 | 1.68 | 1.67 | 1.64 | - | - | +23.3pp | Lost |
| Under 161.5 | 78.2% | 1.73 | 1.80 | 1.78 | 1.72 | 1.71 | 1.70 | +23.2pp | Lost |
| Under 162.5 | 79.8% | 1.67 | 1.80 | 1.62 | 1.60 | - | - | +23.2pp | Lost |
| Under 163 | 81.1% | 1.57 | 1.57 | - | - | - | - | +22.2pp | Lost |
| Air Force +16.5 | 91.1% | 1.34 | 1.36 | 1.32 | - | - | - | +22.0pp | Won |
| Under 163.5 | 81.4% | 1.56 | 1.57 | 1.54 | - | - | - | +21.8pp | Lost |
| Air Force +16 | 91.0% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +21.5pp | Won |
| Under 164 | 82.7% | 1.52 | 1.52 | - | - | - | - | +21.5pp | Lost |
| Under 164.5 | 83.0% | 1.48 | 1.50 | 1.47 | - | - | - | +20.6pp | Lost |
| Air Force +17.5 | 92.3% | 1.29 | 1.31 | 1.27 | - | - | - | +20.6pp | Won |
| Under 165.5 | 84.4% | 1.44 | 1.45 | 1.43 | - | - | - | +20.2pp | Lost |
| Under 168.5 | 88.2% | 1.37 | 1.42 | 1.32 | - | - | - | +20.1pp | Lost |
| Under 165 | 84.2% | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | - | +20.0pp | Lost |
| Air Force +17 | 92.2% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +19.9pp | Won |
| Under 166 | 85.5% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +19.3pp | Lost |
| Under 166.5 | 85.7% | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.37 | - | - | - | +19.2pp | Lost |
| Under 168 | 88.0% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +18.5pp | Lost |
| Under 167.5 | 87.0% | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.33 | - | - | - | +18.1pp | Lost |
| Air Force +18 | 93.3% | 1.23 | 1.23 | - | - | - | - | +18.0pp | Won |
| Under 167 | 86.8% | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | - | - | - | +17.9pp | Lost |
| Air Force +18.5 | 93.4% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +17.2pp | Won |
| Under 171.5 | 91.2% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +16.7pp | Lost |
| Under 170.5 | 90.2% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +15.5pp | Lost |
| Under 169.5 | 89.2% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +14.8pp | Lost |
| Air Force +20.5 | 95.1% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | +14.6pp | Won |
| Under 176.5 | 94.8% | 1.13 | 1.13 | - | - | - | - | +12.5pp | Lost |
| Under 175.5 | 94.2% | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | - | - | - | +11.1pp | Lost |
| Under 174.5 | 93.5% | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | - | - | - | +10.5pp | Lost |
| Under 181.5 | 97.1% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | +8.8pp | Lost |
| Air Force under 81.5 | 76.7% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +8.1pp | Lost |
| Under 180.5 | 96.7% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +8.0pp | Lost |
| Under 179.5 | 96.3% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +7.6pp | Lost |
| Air Force under 92.5 | 96.1% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +3.9pp | Lost |
| Air Force under 90.5 | 94.3% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +3.6pp | Lost |
| Air Force under 82.5 | 79.5% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +3.3pp | Lost |
| Air Force under 80.5 | 73.7% | 1.34 | 1.40 | 1.32 | 1.29 | - | - | +3.2pp | Lost |
| Air Force under 88.5 | 91.8% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +3.1pp | Lost |
| Air Force under 84.5 | 84.5% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | +3.1pp | Lost |
| Air Force under 79.5 | 70.4% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +3.0pp | Lost |
| Air Force under 86.5 | 88.6% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | +2.5pp | Lost |
| Overtime: no | 94.6% | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | +2.4pp | Won |
| Air Force under 83.5 | 82.1% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | +0.7pp | Lost |
| Over 129.5 | 87.8% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -4.5pp | Won |
| Loyola Chicago over 62.5 | 88.4% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -5.3pp | Won |
| Loyola Chicago over 64.5 | 84.1% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -7.4pp | Won |
| Loyola Chicago +9.5 | 81.3% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -9.9pp | Lost |
| Over 134.5 | 80.4% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -11.9pp | Won |
| Loyola Chicago over 65.5 | 81.6% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -12.1pp | Won |
| Over 135.5 | 78.6% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -13.6pp | Won |
| Loyola Chicago over 66.5 | 78.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -13.9pp | Won |
| Over 136.5 | 76.8% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -15.5pp | Won |
| Loyola Chicago over 67.5 | 76.0% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -15.5pp | Won |
| Loyola Chicago over 68.5 | 72.8% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -18.3pp | Won |
| Over 139.5 | 70.8% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -18.6pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | H | Idaho State | 89-82 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Calumet College | 107-58 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Wright State | 71-102 |
| 11/03/26 | A | Nevada | 45-80 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Nevada | 59-74 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Grand Canyon | 60-86 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Wyoming | 62-66 |
| 25/02/26 | H | San Jose State | 80-86 |
| 21/02/26 | H | UNLV | 66-91 |
| 18/02/26 | A | New Mexico | 61-98 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/26 | H | West Georgia | 76-53 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Citadel | 77-52 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Davidson | 59-64 OT |
| 11/03/26 | A | Richmond Spiders | 75-67 |
| 07/03/26 | H | George Washington | 68-62 |
| 05/03/26 | A | St. Louis Billikens | 65-79 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Richmond Spiders | 69-66 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Saint Josephs Hawks | 61-75 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Fordham | 59-62 |
| 14/02/26 | H | St. Louis Billikens | 59-86 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWW | 67% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Win % | 67% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 89.0 | 98.0 | 71.0 |
| Allowed / game | 80.7 | 70.0 | 102.0 |
| Point differential | +8.3 | +28.0 | -31.0 |
| Avg total | 169.7 | 168.0 | 173.0 |
| Over 154.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 76.5 | 76.5 | - |
| Allowed / game | 52.5 | 52.5 | - |
| Point differential | +24.0 | +24.0 | - |
| Avg total | 129.0 | 129.0 | - |
| Over 154.5 | 0% | 0% | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 116.0 | 67.0 | +49.0 | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.7 | 66.7 | +34.0 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 64.7 | +31.3 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 101.0 | 80.0 | +21.0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 72.0 | +19.0 | |
| 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 89.5 | 72.0 | +17.5 | |
| 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 81.0 | 70.5 | +10.5 | |
| 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 88.5 | 78.0 | +10.5 | |
| 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.7 | 62.0 | +21.7 | |
| 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 89.0 | 80.7 | +8.3 | |
| 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 82.7 | 84.0 | -1.3 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 87.0 | 82.5 | +4.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.3 | 58.7 | +36.7 | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 102.3 | 71.3 | +31.0 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.3 | 50.0 | +28.3 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 76.5 | 52.5 | +24.0 | |
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.0 | 63.3 | +22.7 | |
| 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 75.0 | 52.5 | +22.5 | |
| 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 75.3 | 60.7 | +14.7 | |
| 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 74.5 | 65.0 | +9.5 | |
| 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 72.7 | 66.7 | +6.0 | |
| 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 75.3 | 76.7 | -1.3 | |
| 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 79.5 | 64.0 | +15.5 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 85.0 | 80.5 | +4.5 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 84.7 | 79.3 | +5.3 | |
| 14 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 67.3 | 84.7 | -17.3 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 57 | 107 | |
| 35 | 58 | 93 |
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