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Alabama vs Sam Houston St. Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 04 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 96-74
40-29 56-45
Position#123
Record-
FormWLWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Alabama 🏆
USA
Vs
79%
21%
■ ALAB 79%■ SAM 21%
Pythia win probability
Projected 86-77
Projected total 162.9
Sam Houston St.
USA
Position#314
Record-
FormWLLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Alabama faces Sam Houston St. on 3 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring Alabama at 79% to win, reflecting the Crimson Tide's dominant season performance and strong offensive output; Sam Houston St. holds a 21% chance of victory. Alabama's recent form shows a 3-2 record in their last five outings, highlighted by a 90-65 win over Texas Tech at home and a 90-70 triumph over Hofstra, while Sam Houston St. has gone 2-3 in their last five, including a 69-61 win over New Mexico State but a 73-79 loss to Kennesaw State. The projected score is 86-77 in favour of Alabama, with a total of 162.9 points, and the over-168.5 line carries a 36% chance of exceeding. Alabama is also 79% likely to cover the main spread, and there is a 4% probability of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Alabama winWon
78.9%fair 1.27
Best odds1.01
Implied94.2%
Edge-15.3pp
Sam Houston St. winLost
21.1%fair 4.74
Best odds41.00
Implied5.8%
Edge+15.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 02 Nov 07:08 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AlabamaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas
#36
W
117-115 OT
117
115
+2
H19/02
NCAA
LSU
#230
W
90-83
90
83
+7
A21/02
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#257
W
100-75
100
75
+25
H26/02
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
71-69
71
69
+2
A28/02
NCAA
Georgia
#68
L
88-98
88
98
-10
A03/03
NCAA
Auburn
#188
W
96-84
96
84
+12
H08/03
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
79-80
79
80
-1
H13/03
NCAA
Hofstra
#54
W
90-70
90
70
+20
H20/03
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
W
90-65
90
65
+25
H23/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
77-90
77
90
-13
A27/03
NCAA
1H
2H
47-57
48-38
43-40
47-43
63-33
37-42
28-40
43-29
43-50
45-48
50-31
46-53
41-47
38-33
37-35
53-35
49-25
41-40
49-47
28-43
172.7Avg total
89.8Scored
82.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)89.882.9172.7+6.970%
Last 5 (5)86.477.8164.2+8.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)76.395.3171.7-19.00%
vs Similar (15)91.184.8175.9+6.373%
vs Weaker (12)95.676.0171.6+19.692%
Sam Houston St.USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
78-87
78
87
-9
A07/02
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
W
83-79
83
79
+4
A14/02
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
W
78-70
78
70
+8
H19/02
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
82-78
82
78
+4
H21/02
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
100-67
100
67
+33
H27/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
W
86-81
86
81
+5
H28/02
NCAA
Delaware
#326
L
80-83
80
83
-3
A06/03
NCAA
Liberty
#26
L
72-79
72
79
-7
A07/03
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
W
69-61
69
61
+8
H12/03
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
L
73-79
73
79
-6
H13/03
NCAA
1H
2H
38-37
40-50
45-42
38-37
44-32
34-38
36-26
46-52
50-31
50-36
43-34
43-47
33-33
47-50
31-41
41-38
37-26
32-35
37-31
36-48
156.5Avg total
80.1Scored
76.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)80.176.4156.5+3.760%
Last 5 (5)76.076.6152.6-0.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (11)80.676.2156.8+4.564%
vs Weaker (18)81.772.9154.7+8.872%
Over/Under 163.5Actual: Over 163.5
Over 163.5
47.9%
@ 1.37-20.7pp
Under 163.5
52.1%
@ 3.10+20.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.10
Betano
2.82
Over/Under 168.5 · main lineActual: Over 168.5
Over 168.5
36.1%
@ 1.83-19.6pp
Under 168.5
63.9%
@ 2.20+19.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.73
Bet365
1.60
Marathon Be
1.60
Betano
1.60
Under
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.18
WilliamHill
2.00
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 173.5Actual: Under 173.5
Over 173.5
25.6%
@ 2.11-19.3pp
Under 173.5
74.4%
@ 1.72+19.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.66

📊 3. Team Totals

Alabama total 95.5Actual: Alabama over 95.5
Over 95.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
Under 95.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Under
Betano
2.40
Alabama total 99.5 · main lineActual: Alabama under 99.5
Over 99.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under 99.5
no forecast
@ 1.89
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.83
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Alabama total 103.5Actual: Alabama under 103.5
Over 103.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
Under 103.5
no forecast
@ 1.38
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.62
Under
Betano
1.38
Sam Houston St. total 68Actual: Sam Houston St. over 68
Over 68
81.4%
Under 68
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sam Houston St. total 72 · main lineActual: Sam Houston St. over 72
Over 72
68.5%
@ 1.85+18.3pp
Under 72
31.5%
@ 1.87-18.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Sam Houston St. total 76Actual: Sam Houston St. under 76
Over 76
52.9%
Under 76
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Alabama -29.5Actual: Sam Houston St. +29.5
ALAB -29.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
SAM +29.5
no forecast
@ 1.58
Best 5 market prices
ALAB
Betano
2.22
Bet365
2.22
SAM
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57
Spread Alabama -26.5 · main lineActual: Sam Houston St. +26.5
ALAB -26.5
no forecast
@ 1.92
SAM +26.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
Best 5 market prices
ALAB
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
SAM
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
SBO
1.87
Spread Alabama -23.5Actual: Sam Houston St. +23.5
ALAB -23.5
10.5%
@ 1.57-48.2pp
SAM +23.5
89.5%
@ 2.25+48.2pp
Best 5 market prices
ALAB
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
SAM
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +4.5+4.51st half: +6.1+6.12nd half2nd half: +2.2+2.22nd half: -2.4-2.4
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +4.5+4.51st half: +6.1+6.12nd half2nd half: +2.2+2.22nd half: -2.4-2.4
AlabamaSam Houston St.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
AlabamaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas
#36
L
47-57
47
57
-10
H19/02
NCAA
LSU
#230
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A21/02
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#257
W
63-33
63
33
+30
H26/02
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
28-40
28
40
-12
A28/02
NCAA
Georgia
#68
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A03/03
NCAA
Auburn
#188
W
50-31
50
31
+19
H08/03
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
41-47
41
47
-6
H13/03
NCAA
Hofstra
#54
W
37-35
37
35
+2
H20/03
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
W
49-25
49
25
+24
H23/03
NCAA
Michigan
#6
W
49-47
49
47
+2
A27/03
NCAA
85.5Avg total
45.0Scored
40.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 82
Last 30 (30)44.437.281.5+7.267%43%
Last 30 at home (20)47.535.082.5+12.580%45%
Last 30 away (10)38.041.579.5-3.540%40%
Last 10 (10)45.040.585.5+4.560%60%
Last 5 (5)45.237.082.2+8.280%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)42.044.086.0-2.067%33%
vs Similar (15)44.038.982.9+5.153%53%
vs Weaker (12)45.433.278.7+12.283%33%
Sam Houston St.Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisiana Tech
#131
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A07/02
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
W
45-42
45
42
+3
A14/02
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H19/02
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
36-26
36
26
+10
H21/02
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
50-31
50
31
+19
H27/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H28/02
NCAA
Delaware
#326
D
33-33
33
33
+0
A06/03
NCAA
Liberty
#26
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A07/03
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
W
37-26
37
26
+11
H12/03
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
W
37-31
37
31
+6
H13/03
NCAA
72.7Avg total
39.4Scored
33.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 82
Last 30 (30)39.432.972.3+6.477%10%
Last 30 at home (15)40.629.670.2+11.093%0%
Last 30 away (15)38.136.374.4+1.960%20%
Last 10 (10)39.433.372.7+6.180%10%
Last 5 (5)36.233.069.2+3.260%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (11)36.834.271.0+2.673%9%
vs Weaker (18)40.532.773.2+7.878%11%
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Alabama win
ALAB win
no forecast
@ 1.05
SAM win
no forecast
@ 11.00
1st half Spread Alabama -15.5 · main lineActual: Sam Houston St. +15.5
ALAB -15.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
SAM +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.92
1st half Over/Under 82 · main lineActual: Under 82
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.94
Alabama 1st half total 48.5 · main lineActual: Alabama under 48.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.98
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Sam Houston St. 1st half total 33 · main lineActual: Sam Houston St. under 33
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half: ALAB + total 81.5
ALAB & over
no forecast
@ 1.83
ALAB & under
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half: Draw + total 81.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 41.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 41.00
1st half: SAM + total 81.5
SAM & over
no forecast
@ 26.00
SAM & under
no forecast
@ 26.00
1st half Over/Under 80.5Actual: Under 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Over/Under 83.5Actual: Under 83.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.18
Under
no forecast
@ 1.74
1st half Spread Alabama -16.5Actual: Sam Houston St. +16.5
ALAB -16.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
SAM +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.74
1st half Spread Alabama -14.5Actual: Sam Houston St. +14.5
ALAB -14.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
SAM +14.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Spread Alabama -17.5Actual: Sam Houston St. +17.5
ALAB -17.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
SAM +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Alabama -13.5Actual: Sam Houston St. +13.5
ALAB -13.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
SAM +13.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
1st half Over/Under 78.5Actual: Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.55
Under
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Alabama (regulation)
ALAB
no forecast
@ 1.05
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
SAM
no forecast
@ 15.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
ALAB win + total 169.5
🔒 Pro
SAM win + total 169.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: ALAB leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: SAM leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: blowout (21+ points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Sam Houston St. +1981.7%3.45
Bet365
3.45		----+54.8ppLost
Sam Houston St. +2083.9%3.15
Bet365
3.15		----+54.4ppLost
Sam Houston St. +18.579.8%3.60
Bet365
3.60		----+53.9ppLost
Sam Houston St. +16.574.6%4.40
Bet365
4.40		----+53.4ppLost
Sam Houston St. +2185.9%2.80
Bet365
2.80		----+52.9ppLost
Sam Houston St. +19.582.1%3.08
Bet365
3.20
Betano
2.95		---+52.0ppLost
Sam Houston St. +2287.7%2.60
Bet365
2.60		----+51.9ppPush
Sam Houston St. +20.584.2%2.80
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.75		---+51.2ppLost
Sam Houston St. +21.586.2%2.60
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.55		---+50.6ppLost
Sam Houston St. +22.587.9%2.44
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.37		---+49.8ppWon
Sam Houston St. +2389.3%2.35
Bet365
2.35		----+49.7ppWon
Sam Houston St. +24.590.9%2.16
Pinnacle
2.29
Bet365
2.12
Betano
2.07		--+49.4ppWon
Sam Houston St. +2490.7%2.20
Bet365
2.20		----+48.6ppWon
Sam Houston St. +2592.0%2.12
Pinnacle
2.19
Bet365
2.05		---+48.6ppWon
Sam Houston St. +23.589.5%2.24
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22		---+48.2ppWon
Under 171.570.4%1.87
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.87
SBO
1.87		+20.7ppWon
Under 17271.9%1.82
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.80		--+20.3ppWon
Under 17373.9%1.72
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.68		--+19.9ppWon
Under 172.572.5%1.78
Pinnacle
1.80
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.78
Bet365
1.74		+19.7ppWon
Under 173.574.4%1.68
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.66		--+19.3ppWon
Under 17475.9%1.62
Bet365
1.62		----+18.8ppWon
Sam Houston St. over 70.573.0%1.65
Pinnacle
1.73
Betano
1.57		---+18.6ppWon
Under 174.576.3%1.59
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58		---+18.3ppWon
Under 175.578.1%1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54		---+18.2ppWon
Under 17577.7%1.55
Bet365
1.55		----+18.0ppWon
Under 17679.5%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+17.0ppWon
Under 17781.1%1.45
Bet365
1.45		----+16.9ppWon
Under 176.579.8%1.47
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.47		---+16.9ppWon
Sam Houston St. over 69.576.2%1.51
1xBet
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50		--+15.3ppWon
Sam Houston St. over 68.579.2%1.40
Betano
1.40		----+14.6ppWon
Sam Houston St. over 66.584.4%1.30
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29		---+14.1ppWon
Sam Houston St. over 67.581.9%1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33		---+13.1ppWon
Sam Houston St. over 65.586.6%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+10.5ppWon
Sam Houston St. over 63.590.5%1.14
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14		---+9.0ppWon
Sam Houston St. over 61.593.4%1.09
Bet365
1.09		----+7.3ppWon
Sam Houston St. over 59.595.6%1.05
Bet365
1.05		----+6.6ppWon
Sam Houston St. over 57.597.1%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+6.4ppWon
Sam Houston St. over 55.598.2%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+5.4ppWon
Over 146.583.9%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----7.6ppWon
Sam Houston St. under 83.574.3%1.08
Bet365
1.08		-----12.3ppWon
Alabama (regulation)76.6%1.01
Betano
1.01		-----13.7ppWon
Over 151.575.3%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----13.7ppWon
Alabama win78.9%1.01
Betano
1.01		-----15.3ppWon
Alabama over 78.577.2%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----16.5ppWon
Alabama over 79.574.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----18.1ppWon
Alabama over 80.570.8%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----20.7ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Alabama wins
0
Sam Houston St. wins
No previous meetings.
Alabamalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/03/26AMichigan77-90
23/03/26HTexas Tech90-65
20/03/26HHofstra90-70
13/03/26HOle Miss79-80
08/03/26HAuburn96-84
03/03/26AGeorgia88-98
28/02/26ATennessee71-69
26/02/26HMississippi St.100-75
21/02/26ALSU90-83
19/02/26HArkansas117-115 OT
Sam Houston St.last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/03/26HKennesaw State73-79
12/03/26HNew Mexico State69-61
07/03/26ALiberty72-79
06/03/26ADelaware80-83
28/02/26HMissouri State86-81
27/02/26HFlorida International100-67
21/02/26HJacksonville State82-78
19/02/26HMiddle Tenn. St.78-70
14/02/26AKennesaw State83-79
07/02/26ALouisiana Tech78-87

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Alabama
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 168.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Sam Houston St.
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 168.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas110100%109.059.0+50.0
2 Vanderbilt110100%93.047.0+46.0
3 Ole Miss110100%99.058.0+41.0
4 Tennessee110100%90.059.0+31.0
5 Kentucky110100%85.057.0+28.0
6 South Carolina110100%81.055.0+26.0
7 Mississippi St.110100%106.088.0+18.0
8 Georgia110100%78.062.0+16.0
9 Florida110100%77.067.0+10.0
10 Oklahoma1010%64.068.0-4.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Jacksonville State110100%123.059.0+64.0
2 Delaware110100%105.044.0+61.0
3 Kennesaw State110100%116.057.0+59.0
4 Middle Tenn. St.110100%117.073.0+44.0
5 Florida International110100%101.058.0+43.0
6 Western Kentucky110100%83.058.0+25.0
7 Louisiana Tech110100%85.075.0+10.0
8 UTEP1010%76.084.0-8.0
9 Liberty1010%57.072.0-15.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Alabama405696
Sam Houston St.294574
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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