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Arkansas State vs UT Martin Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Projected 81-70
Projected total 150.7
Final 65-82
34-54 31-28
Position#301
Record1-1
FormWWLWL
Points / game78.5
Allowed / game85.5
Arkansas State
USA
Vs
83%
17%
■ ARKA 83%■ UT M 17%
Pythia win probability
UT Martin 🏆
USA
Position#261
Record0-2
FormLWLLL
Points / game86.0
Allowed / game87.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Arkansas State v UT Martin
10 Nov 2026
ARKA65
UT M82
22 Nov 2022
ARKA70
UT M64
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Arkansas State faces UT Martin on 10 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Arkansas State the clear favourite, rating them 83% to win largely because of their 1-1 record, 78.5 points per game and 85.5 allowed per game, and a 1-0 home record with 71.0 points scored and 70.0 allowed. UT Martin, meanwhile, sits 0-2 with 86.0 points per game and 87.5 allowed per game, and has a 0-2 road record, scoring 86.0 and allowing 87.5. Arkansas State's last five games were 3-2, including a 71-70 home win over Toledo, while UT Martin's last five were 1-4, with losses to IU Indy, Tulane and Tennessee State. In their only prior meeting on 22 November 2022, Arkansas State won 70-64. The Pythia model projects a score of 81-70, a total of 150.7, and gives Arkansas State an 83% chance to win and a 62% probability of covering the home line of -7.5; the over on the 151.5 total has a 48% chance, and the game has a 3% chance of going into overtime. The next contest will see Arkansas State's defence hold UT Martin to just 70 points.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arkansas State winLost
83.0%fair 1.20
Best odds1.31
Implied73.3%
Edge+9.7pp
UT Martin winWon
17.0%fair 5.88
Best odds3.60
Implied26.7%
Edge-9.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bowling Green
#143
W
91-54
91
54
+37
H07/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
103-70
103
70
+33
H12/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
88-92 OT
88
92
-4
H14/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
79-62
79
62
+17
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
102-94
102
94
+8
A21/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
89-84
89
84
+5
H25/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
81-58
81
58
+23
H28/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
77-80
77
80
-3
H06/03
NCAA
Toledo
#327
W
71-70
71
70
+1
H03/11
NCAA
Alabama
#44
L
86-101
86
101
-15
A07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
40-14
51-40
49-37
54-33
41-32
42-51
36-33
43-29
56-49
46-45
53-44
36-40
37-22
44-36
34-42
43-38
36-35
35-35
34-51
52-50
163.2Avg total
86.7Scored
76.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)78.585.5164.0-7.050%
Season at home (1)71.070.0141.0+1.0100%
Season away (1)86.0101.0187.0-15.00%
Last 10 (10)86.776.5163.2+10.270%
Last 5 (5)80.878.6159.4+2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)81.088.7169.7-7.733%
vs Similar (12)79.777.3157.0+2.358%
vs Weaker (14)83.675.6159.2+8.164%
This opponent (UT Martin) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UT MartinUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lindenwood
#162
L
74-75
74
75
-1
A13/02
NCAA
Siu Edwardsville
#118
W
81-76
81
76
+5
A14/02
NCAA
Southeast Missouri State
#110
L
53-56 OT
53
56
-3
H18/02
NCAA
UALR
#295
L
65-67
65
67
-2
A20/02
NCAA
Tennessee Tech
#270
W
64-49
64
49
+15
H27/02
NCAA
Tennessee State
#51
L
42-67
42
67
-25
H28/02
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#285
W
66-63
66
63
+3
H06/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#51
L
55-68
55
68
-13
A07/03
NCAA
Tulane
#183
L
98-100 OT
98
100
-2
A03/11
NCAA
IU Indy
#82
L
74-75
74
75
-1
A07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
44-39
30-36
44-32
37-44
16-26
31-21
32-28
33-39
23-22
41-27
21-35
21-32
27-22
39-41
28-36
27-32
37-35
43-45
34-36
40-39
136.8Avg total
67.2Scored
69.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)86.087.5173.5-1.50%
Season at homeno games
Season away (2)86.087.5173.5-1.50%
Last 10 (10)67.269.6136.8-2.430%
Last 5 (5)67.074.6141.6-7.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)74.075.0149.0-1.00%
vs Similar (12)65.469.9135.3-4.533%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)71.458.9130.2+12.582%
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
59.8%
@ 1.45-4.4pp
Under 146.5
40.2%
@ 2.60+4.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Over/Under 151.5 · main lineActual: Under 151.5
Over 151.5
47.6%
@ 1.89-2.8pp
Under 151.5
52.4%
@ 1.92+2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.89
Under
Bet365
1.92
Over/Under 156.5Actual: Under 156.5
Over 156.5
35.8%
@ 2.55-0.8pp
Under 156.5
64.2%
@ 1.47+0.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Under
Bet365
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

Arkansas State total 75.5Actual: Arkansas State under 75.5
Over 75.5
70.3%
Under 75.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arkansas State total 79.5 · main lineActual: Arkansas State under 79.5
Over 79.5
55.2%
@ 1.83+5.2pp
Under 79.5
44.8%
@ 1.83-5.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.83
Arkansas State total 83.5Actual: Arkansas State under 83.5
Over 83.5
39.3%
Under 83.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UT Martin total 68.5Actual: UT Martin over 68.5
Over 68.5
55.1%
Under 68.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UT Martin total 72.5 · main lineActual: UT Martin over 72.5
Over 72.5
39.5%
@ 1.86-9.7pp
Under 72.5
60.5%
@ 1.80+9.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.86
Under
Bet365
1.80
UT Martin total 76.5Actual: UT Martin over 76.5
Over 76.5
25.7%
Under 76.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Arkansas State -10.5Actual: UT Martin +10.5
ARKA -10.5
51.2%
@ 2.35+11.6pp
UT M +10.5
48.8%
@ 1.54-11.6pp
Best 5 market prices
ARKA
Bet365
2.35
UT M
Bet365
1.54
Spread Arkansas State -7.5 · main lineActual: UT Martin +7.5
ARKA -7.5
62.0%
@ 1.90+11.9pp
UT M +7.5
38.0%
@ 1.91-11.9pp
Best 5 market prices
ARKA
Bet365
1.90
UT M
Bet365
1.91
Spread Arkansas State -4.5Actual: UT Martin +4.5
ARKA -4.5
72.3%
@ 1.55+12.5pp
UT M +4.5
27.7%
@ 2.30-12.5pp
Best 5 market prices
ARKA
Bet365
1.55
UT M
Bet365
2.30

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +5.7+5.71st half: -0.5-0.52nd half2nd half: +4.9+4.92nd half: -1.4-1.4
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +5.7+5.71st half: -0.5-0.52nd half2nd half: +4.9+4.92nd half: -1.4-1.4
Arkansas StateUT Martin
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bowling Green
#143
W
40-14
40
14
+26
H07/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
49-37
49
37
+12
H12/02
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
41-32
41
32
+9
H14/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A20/02
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
56-49
56
49
+7
A21/02
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
53-44
53
44
+9
H25/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
37-22
37
22
+15
H28/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H06/03
NCAA
Toledo
#327
W
36-35
36
35
+1
H03/11
NCAA
Alabama
#44
L
34-51
34
51
-17
A07/11
NCAA
77.5Avg total
41.6Scored
35.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.335.775.0+3.667%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.632.973.5+7.875%-
Last 30 away (14)37.838.976.6-1.157%-
Last 10 (10)41.635.977.5+5.780%-
Last 5 (5)38.838.877.6+0.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)37.344.381.7-7.033%-
vs Similar (12)38.533.572.0+5.075%-
vs Weaker (14)39.636.476.0+3.164%-
This opponent (UT Martin) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
UT MartinLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lindenwood
#162
W
44-39
44
39
+5
A13/02
NCAA
Siu Edwardsville
#118
W
44-32
44
32
+12
A14/02
NCAA
Southeast Missouri State
#110
L
16-26
16
26
-10
H18/02
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
32-28
32
28
+4
A20/02
NCAA
Tennessee Tech
#270
W
23-22
23
22
+1
H27/02
NCAA
Tennessee State
#51
L
21-35
21
35
-14
H28/02
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#285
W
27-22
27
22
+5
H06/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#51
L
28-36
28
36
-8
A07/03
NCAA
Tulane
#183
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A03/11
NCAA
IU Indy
#82
L
34-36
34
36
-2
A07/11
NCAA
61.7Avg total
30.6Scored
31.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.731.062.8+0.757%-
Last 30 at home (15)30.227.657.8+2.660%-
Last 30 away (15)33.334.567.7-1.253%-
Last 10 (10)30.631.161.7-0.560%-
Last 5 (5)29.432.862.2-3.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)34.036.070.0-2.00%-
vs Similar (12)31.132.463.5-1.358%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)32.129.861.8+2.359%-
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Half-time / full-time: ARKA leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: UT M leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 3 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Arkansas State -474.6%1.52
Bet365
1.52		----+13.4ppLost
Arkansas State -280.5%1.37
Bet365
1.37		----+13.0ppLost
Arkansas State -571.3%1.58
Bet365
1.58		----+12.9ppLost
Arkansas State -4.572.3%1.55
Bet365
1.55		----+12.5ppLost
Arkansas State -377.4%1.43
Bet365
1.43		----+12.4ppLost
Arkansas State -1.581.1%1.35
Bet365
1.35		----+12.1ppLost
Arkansas State -3.575.4%1.47
Bet365
1.47		----+12.0ppLost
Arkansas State -2.578.0%1.40
Bet365
1.40		----+11.9ppLost
Arkansas State -182.7%1.31
Bet365
1.31		----+11.7ppLost
Arkansas State win83.0%1.31
Bet365
1.31		----+9.7ppLost
Arkansas State over 70.584.8%1.15
Bet365
1.15		----+4.3ppLost
Under 176.594.0%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+2.5ppWon
Under 171.589.7%1.05
Bet365
1.05		----+1.0ppWon
Under 15970.1%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+0.7ppWon
Over 126.593.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.3ppWon
Under 159.570.8%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+0.3ppWon
Under 161.574.8%1.25
Bet365
1.25		----+0.0ppWon
UT Martin over 55.592.2%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----0.0ppWon
Under 166.583.3%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----0.5ppWon
UT Martin over 57.588.9%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----1.6ppWon
Over 131.588.0%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----1.6ppWon
UT Martin over 59.584.7%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----4.0ppWon
Over 136.580.7%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----4.4ppWon
Over 141.571.1%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----5.1ppWon
UT Martin over 61.579.5%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----6.1ppWon
UT Martin over 63.573.4%1.15
Bet365
1.15		-----7.2ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Arkansas State wins
0
UT Martin wins
DateGameScore
22/11/22Arkansas State v UT Martin70-64
Arkansas Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26AAlabama86-101
03/11/26HToledo71-70
06/03/26HGeorgia Southern77-80
28/02/26HLouisiana Lafayette81-58
25/02/26HSouthern Miss89-84
21/02/26ALouisiana Monroe102-94
20/02/26ALouisiana Lafayette79-62
14/02/26HSouth Alabama88-92 OT
12/02/26HLouisiana Monroe103-70
07/02/26HBowling Green91-54
UT Martinlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26AIU Indy74-75
03/11/26ATulane98-100 OT
07/03/26ATennessee State55-68
06/03/26HEastern Illinois66-63
28/02/26HTennessee State42-67
27/02/26HTennessee Tech64-49
20/02/26AUALR65-67
18/02/26HSoutheast Missouri State53-56 OT
14/02/26ASiu Edwardsville81-76
13/02/26ALindenwood74-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Arkansas State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWL50%
HomeW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game78.571.086.0
Allowed / game85.570.0101.0
Point differential-7.0+1.0-15.0
Avg total164.0141.0187.0
Over 151.550%0%100%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
UT Martin
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLL0%
Home--
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games2-2
Win %0%-0%
Points / game86.0-86.0
Allowed / game87.5-87.5
Point differential-1.5--1.5
Avg total173.5-173.5
Over 151.550%-50%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)-0% (2)
Overtime %50%-50%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas State330100%91.362.0+29.3
2 Old Dominion330100%78.052.7+25.3
3 Southern Miss21150%69.559.0+10.5
4 Arkansas State21150%78.585.5-7.0
5 Georgia State31233%83.771.3+12.3
6 Appalachian State31233%70.060.3+9.7
7 Marshall31233%80.776.7+4.0
8 Louisiana Monroe31233%81.382.0-0.7
9 Louisiana Lafayette31233%59.060.3-1.3
10 Georgia Southern31233%80.382.3-2.0
11 South Alabama31233%76.380.7-4.3
12 Troy31233%67.377.0-9.7
13 Coastal Carolina31233%62.380.0-17.7
14 James Madison2020%78.587.5-9.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Ohio Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Lindenwood32167%98.062.7+35.3
2 Tennessee State32167%104.776.0+28.7
3 Tennessee Tech32167%100.790.0+10.7
4 Southeast Missouri State32167%81.374.0+7.3
5 Siu Edwardsville42250%77.868.5+9.2
6 Southern Indiana31233%80.764.0+16.7
7 Western Illinois31233%71.767.3+4.3
8 Morehead State31233%76.383.3-7.0
9 UT Martin2020%86.087.5-1.5
10 UALR2020%75.582.5-7.0
11 Eastern Illinois3030%58.092.0-34.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Arkansas State343165
UT Martin542882
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