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Avellino Basket vs Montecatini Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 21 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 18:30
Final 85-74
24-11 21-21 19-16 21-26
Position#2
Record4-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game82.8
Allowed / game71.0
vs
Position#20
Record1-3
FormLWLL
Points / game71.8
Allowed / game85.8
ItalySerie A2Round 5· Palasport Del Mauro
Other2026-27
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Avellino Basket winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Montecatini winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Avellino BasketItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBasket
Date
Competition
JuVi Cremona
#12
W
81-75
81
75
+6
71avg 73
H03/05
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
L
58-76
58
76
-18
43avg 73
A07/05
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
L
64-69
64
69
-5
55avg 73
A09/05
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
W
75-71
75
71
+4
62avg 73
H12/05
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
W
76-67
76
67
+9
59avg 73
H14/05
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
L
61-93
61
93
-32
53avg 73
A17/05
Serie A2
Vigevano
#14
W
87-69
87
69
+18
86avg 73
H27/09
Serie A2
Rimini
#5
W
73-72
73
72
+1
23avg 73
A04/10
Serie A2
Forli
#9
W
94-81
94
81
+13
96avg 73
H11/10
Serie A2
Cividale
#12
W
77-62
77
62
+15
82avg 73
A17/10
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-24
18-21
15-16
24-14
14-21
8-19
18-23
18-13
21-22
22-17
17-18
4-12
12-21
18-24
27-13
18-13
17-23
18-14
25-16
16-14
9-28
19-17
15-26
18-22
29-10
26-16
11-23
21-20
23-23
11-22
21-11
18-16
25-19
24-21
24-23
21-18
31-13
20-16
14-14
12-19
148.1Avg total
74.6Scored
73.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)82.871.0153.8+11.8100%
Season at home (2)90.575.0165.5+15.5100%
Season away (2)75.067.0142.0+8.0100%
Last 10 (10)74.673.5148.1+1.170%
Last 5 (5)78.475.4153.8+3.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)73.081.5154.5-8.525%
vs Similar (18)77.678.0155.6-0.461%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)86.976.2163.1+10.688%
This opponent (Montecatini) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MontecatiniItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMontecatini
Date
Competition
Rimini
#5
L
59-84
59
84
-25
46avg 44
H27/09
Serie A2
Sassari
#11
W
81-72
81
72
+9
26avg 44
A04/10
Serie A2
Brindisi
#6
L
78-96
78
96
-18
68avg 44
H11/10
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#3
L
69-91
69
91
-22
36avg 44
A17/10
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-20
18-14
13-28
7-22
28-16
19-15
15-20
19-21
19-18
16-31
18-28
25-19
20-20
20-27
10-25
19-19
157.5Avg total
71.8Scored
85.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)71.885.8157.5-14.025%
Season at home (2)68.590.0158.5-21.50%
Season away (2)75.081.5156.5-6.550%
Last 10 (4)71.885.8157.5-14.025%
Last 5 (4)71.885.8157.5-14.025%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)71.885.8157.5-14.025%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Avellino Basket) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-14-7+0+7+14Q1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q1: +3.5+3.5Q2Q2: -0.3-0.3Q2: -3.5-3.5Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: -11.2-11.2Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: -2.8-2.8
-14-7+0+7+14Q1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q1: +3.5+3.5Q2Q2: -0.3-0.3Q2: -3.5-3.5Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: -11.2-11.2Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: -2.8-2.8
Avellino BasketMontecatini
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Avellino BasketLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
JuVi Cremona
#12
L
42-45
42
45
-3
H03/05
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
L
22-40
22
40
-18
A07/05
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
W
43-39
43
39
+4
A09/05
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
L
30-45
30
45
-15
H12/05
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H14/05
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#4
L
28-45
28
45
-17
A17/05
Serie A2
Vigevano
#14
W
55-26
55
26
+29
H27/09
Serie A2
Rimini
#5
L
34-45
34
45
-11
A04/10
Serie A2
Forli
#9
W
49-40
49
40
+9
H11/10
Serie A2
Cividale
#12
W
51-29
51
29
+22
A17/10
Serie A2
78.0Avg total
38.9Scored
39.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.140.480.5-0.243%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.938.381.2+4.553%-
Last 30 away (15)37.442.479.8-5.033%-
Last 10 (10)38.939.178.0-0.240%-
Last 5 (5)43.437.080.4+6.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)36.542.278.8-5.80%-
vs Similar (18)38.541.680.1-3.139%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)45.636.682.2+9.075%-
This opponent (Montecatini) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MontecatiniLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rimini
#5
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H27/09
Serie A2
Sassari
#11
W
47-31
47
31
+16
A04/10
Serie A2
Brindisi
#6
L
35-49
35
49
-14
H11/10
Serie A2
Fortitudo Bologna
#3
L
40-47
40
47
-7
A17/10
Serie A2
80.5Avg total
40.2Scored
40.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (4)40.240.280.5+0.050%-
Last 30 at home (2)37.041.578.5-4.550%-
Last 30 away (2)43.539.082.5+4.550%-
Last 10 (4)40.240.280.5+0.050%-
Last 5 (4)40.240.280.5+0.050%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)40.240.280.5+0.050%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Avellino Basket) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Avellino Baskettheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Avellino Basket: 68.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀38%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers26.0 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.3 points a game
46%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers23.813.0
54.6%
51.4%26.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.49.4
32.0%
34.6%28.2
🏀 Free throws18.214.1
77.5%
70.8%14.1
They take 53.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 55% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Montecatinitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Montecatini: 47.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀37%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers17.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.5 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.5 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.3 points a game
46%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers17.88.8
49.3%
51.4%17.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.06.5
32.5%
34.6%19.5
🏀 Free throws15.510.5
67.7%
70.8%10.5
They take 37.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 53% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/4 games with a box score before 21 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Avellino Basket
WWWWLWWLLW
Montecatini
LLWL
#2
League position
#20
+0.0
Net rating
-32.1
95.7
Offensive rating
73.1
95.7
Defensive rating
105.2
50.9%
Effective FG%
49.0%
53.9%
Opp. effective FG%
57.3%
13.3%
Turnover %
18.3%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.41
32.0%
3-point %
32.5%
67.4%
Assist %
68.9%
70%
Form (last 10/4)
25%

Profile

Offence95.7 · 73.1Defence95.7 · 105.2Shooting50.9% · 49.0%3-point %32.0% · 32.5%Ball care13.3% · 18.3%Free throws0.34 · 0.41Form (last 10/4)70% · 25%
■ Avellino Basket   ■ Montecatini
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Avellino Basket wins
0
Montecatini wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/10/26ACividale77-62
11/10/26HForli94-81
04/10/26ARimini73-72
27/09/26HVigevano87-69
17/05/26AFortitudo Bologna61-93
14/05/26HFortitudo Bologna76-67
12/05/26HFortitudo Bologna75-71
09/05/26AFortitudo Bologna64-69
07/05/26AFortitudo Bologna58-76
03/05/26HJuVi Cremona81-75
Montecatinilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/10/26AFortitudo Bologna69-91
11/10/26HBrindisi78-96
04/10/26ASassari81-72
27/09/26HRimini59-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Avellino Basket
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game82.890.575.0
Allowed / game71.075.067.0
Point differential+11.8+15.5+8.0
Avg total153.8165.5142.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%100%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Montecatini
Serie A2 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Losses (last 4)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLL25%
HomeLL0%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %25%0%50%
Points / game71.868.575.0
Allowed / game85.890.081.5
Point differential-14.0-21.5-6.5
Avg total157.5158.5156.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Fortitudo Bologna440100%86.071.5+14.5
2 Libertas Livorno440100%78.264.0+14.2
3 Avellino Basket440100%82.871.0+11.8
4 Pesaro440100%88.079.5+8.5
5 Forli43175%84.876.5+8.2
6 Brindisi43175%81.875.8+6.0
7 Sassari43175%77.273.2+4.0
8 Sebastiani Rieti43175%77.275.0+2.2
9 Basket Torino43175%75.574.0+1.5
10 Rimini42250%78.271.5+6.8
11 Pistoia41325%74.573.8+0.8
12 Caserta41325%81.884.0-2.2
13 Cento41325%80.586.0-5.5
14 Ruvo Di Puglia41325%81.288.0-6.8
15 Mestre41325%69.580.8-11.2
16 Cividale41325%68.880.2-11.5
17 Montecatini41325%71.885.8-14.0
18 JuVi Cremona4040%76.281.0-4.8
19 Urania Milano4040%77.284.2-7.0
20 Vigevano4040%72.888.2-15.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Avellino Basket2421192185
Montecatini1121162674
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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