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Bakken Bears vs Geneva Lions Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 18 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:30
Projected 87-79
Projected total 165.6
Scheduled
Position#22
Record4-2
FormWWWLL
Points / game82.0
Allowed / game83.3
Bakken Bears
Vs
72%
28%
■ BBE 72%■ GLI 28%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
5.0/10
Around normal
4.6/10
Around normal
Geneva Lions
Position#17
Record4-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game88.2
Allowed / game84.0
EuropeFIBA Europe CupRound 7· Vejlby-Risskov Hallen
European cup2026
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Bakken Bears host Geneva Lions on 18 November 2026 in the FIBA Europe Cup, with the Bears the clear favourite as the model gives them a 72% chance of victory and a projected 87-79 score; the Bears have a 4-2 record this season, averaging 82.0 points and allowing 83.3, while the Lions are also 4-2, averaging 88.2 points and conceding 84.0, and the Bears' home record is 1-1 with 86.0 points scored and 89.5 allowed. The Bears' last five games include a 79-94 loss to Benfica, a 77-80 loss to Team FOG Naestved, and a 80-76 win over Denizli Basket, whereas the Lions have won all five of their recent matches, including 85-77 over Absheron Lions, 103-76 over SAM Massagno, and 97-96 over BC Prievidza. In their sole previous meeting on 14 October 2026, the Bears edged the Lions 78-73, a result that echoes the current projected margin. The model also projects a 165.6 total point line with a 4% chance of overtime, and the Bears have a 72% probability of covering the home line. The game will hinge on whether the Bears can maintain their offensive output against a Lions side that has been scoring at a higher pace.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bakken Bears win
72.1%fair 1.39
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Geneva Lions win
27.9%fair 3.58
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 09:11 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Bakken BearsLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBears
Date
Competition
Randers
#5
W
103-86
103
86
+17
95avg 90
H10/10
Basketligaen
Geneva Lions
#17
W
78-73
78
73
+5
66avg 90
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Vaerlose
#10
W
123-82
123
82
+41
120avg 90
A18/10
Basketligaen
Absheron Lions
#45
W
91-88 OT
91
88
+3
86avg 90
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
BMS Herlev
#12
W
105-67
105
67
+38
103avg 90
H24/10
Basketligaen
BC Prievidza
#23
W
83-78
83
78
+5
78avg 90
A27/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
W
105-75
105
75
+30
105avg 90
A30/10
Basketligaen
Denizli Basket
#31
W
80-76
80
76
+4
no box
A03/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Team FOG Naestved
#1
L
77-80
77
80
-3
no box
A08/11
Basketligaen
Benfica
#6
L
79-94
79
94
-15
no box
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-27
27-14
25-25
24-20
27-20
10-22
26-12
15-19
31-23
25-18
33-19
34-22
17-19
15-18
30-22
19-22
19-20
34-19
27-14
25-14
20-20
19-16
19-22
25-20
29-8
18-23
27-29
31-15
22-18
14-20
24-21
20-17
19-20
19-21
24-17
15-22
20-26
22-24
24-24
13-20
172.3Avg total
92.4Scored
79.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)82.083.3165.3-1.367%
Season at home (2)86.089.5175.5-3.550%
Season away (4)80.080.2160.2-0.275%
Last 10 (10)92.479.9172.3+12.580%
Last 5 (5)84.880.6165.4+4.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)78.685.2163.8-6.640%
vs Similar (2)78.578.0156.5+0.550%
vs Weaker (22)97.579.7177.2+17.882%
This opponent (Geneva Lions) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Geneva LionsLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLions
Date
Competition
Lausanne Basket
#5
W
94-65
94
65
+29
86avg 83
A10/10
SB League
Bakken Bears
#22
L
73-78
73
78
-5
61avg 83
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Neuchatel
#6
W
91-41
91
41
+50
79avg 83
A17/10
SB League
Denizli Basket
#31
L
76-80
76
80
-4
64avg 83
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Lugano Tigers
#8
W
92-74
92
74
+18
83avg 83
H24/10
SB League
Benfica
#6
W
93-90
93
90
+3
85avg 83
H28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Regio Basel
#9
W
117-55
117
55
+62
123avg 83
A01/11
SB League
BC Prievidza
#23
W
97-96
97
96
+1
no box
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
SAM Massagno
#3
W
103-76
103
76
+27
no box
H07/11
SB League
Absheron Lions
#45
W
85-77
85
77
+8
no box
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-15
24-16
21-18
30-16
20-27
22-10
12-26
19-15
19-11
27-10
22-6
23-14
24-19
15-23
17-15
20-23
24-23
24-21
22-8
22-22
28-33
22-22
19-14
24-21
30-18
27-18
30-8
30-11
27-25
17-24
27-27
26-20
20-19
29-21
27-17
27-19
20-22
23-16
19-16
23-23
165.3Avg total
92.1Scored
73.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)88.284.0172.2+4.267%
Season at home (5)84.884.2169.0+0.660%
Season away (1)105.083.0188.0+22.0100%
Last 10 (10)92.173.2165.3+18.980%
Last 5 (5)99.078.8177.8+20.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)80.086.3166.3-6.333%
vs Similar (1)97.096.0193.0+1.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)90.070.8160.8+19.382%
This opponent (Bakken Bears) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%0%1201%1252%1303%1354%1406%1459%15010%15512%16012%16511%1709%1757%1805%1853%1902%1951%2001%2050%210
0%1202%1304%1409%15012%16011%1707%1803%1901%2000%210
Pythia expects about 166 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 160-164 (12%).
Over/Under 160
Over 160
63.2%
Under 160
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 165
Over 165
50.8%
Under 165
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 170
Over 170
38.4%
Under 170
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Bakken Bears total 80.5
Over 80.5
71.6%
Under 80.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bakken Bears total 84.5
Over 84.5
57.8%
Under 84.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bakken Bears total 88.5
Over 88.5
43.0%
Under 88.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Geneva Lions total 76.5
Over 76.5
58.9%
Under 76.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Geneva Lions total 80.5
Over 80.5
43.8%
Under 80.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Geneva Lions total 84.5
Over 84.5
29.8%
Under 84.5
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%10%0%-241%-211%-182%-153%-125%-97%-68%-36%+09%+310%+610%+99%+127%+156%+185%+214%+243%+272%+301%+331%+36
1%-212%-155%-98%-39%+310%+97%+155%+213%+271%+33
Margin from Bakken Bears's side (positive = Bakken Bears win). Pythia's expected margin is +7.5; Bakken Bears win by 1+ in 66% of simulations.
Spread Bakken Bears -3
BBE -3
65.5%
GLI +3
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
BBE
No market prices yet.
GLI
No market prices yet.
Spread Bakken Bears 0
BBE 0
72.1%
GLI 0
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
BBE
No market prices yet.
GLI
No market prices yet.
Spread Bakken Bears +3
BBE +3
78.5%
GLI -3
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
BBE
No market prices yet.
GLI
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.0+3.0Q1: +1.9+1.9Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: +4.9+4.9Q3Q3: +5.4+5.4Q3: +6.1+6.1Q4Q4: +3.0+3.0Q4: +6.0+6.0
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.0+3.0Q1: +1.9+1.9Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: +4.9+4.9Q3Q3: +5.4+5.4Q3: +6.1+6.1Q4Q4: +3.0+3.0Q4: +6.0+6.0
Bakken BearsGeneva Lions
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Bakken BearsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Randers
#5
W
54-41
54
41
+13
H10/10
Basketligaen
Geneva Lions
#17
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Vaerlose
#10
W
56-41
56
41
+15
A18/10
Basketligaen
Absheron Lions
#45
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
BMS Herlev
#12
W
53-39
53
39
+14
H24/10
Basketligaen
BC Prievidza
#23
W
39-36
39
36
+3
A27/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
W
47-31
47
31
+16
A30/10
Basketligaen
Denizli Basket
#31
L
36-38
36
38
-2
A03/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Team FOG Naestved
#1
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A08/11
Basketligaen
Benfica
#6
L
42-50
42
50
-8
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
83.0Avg total
43.4Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.939.485.3+6.563%-
Last 30 at home (15)48.738.787.3+10.080%-
Last 30 away (15)43.140.183.3+3.047%-
Last 10 (10)43.439.683.0+3.850%-
Last 5 (5)40.439.279.6+1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)38.843.081.8-4.220%-
vs Similar (2)37.039.576.5-2.50%-
vs Weaker (22)48.538.386.8+10.182%-
This opponent (Geneva Lions) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Geneva LionsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lausanne Basket
#5
W
43-31
43
31
+12
A10/10
SB League
Bakken Bears
#22
W
42-37
42
37
+5
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Neuchatel
#6
W
46-21
46
21
+25
A17/10
SB League
Denizli Basket
#31
L
39-42
39
42
-3
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Lugano Tigers
#8
W
48-44
48
44
+4
H24/10
SB League
Benfica
#6
L
50-55
50
55
-5
H28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Regio Basel
#9
W
57-36
57
36
+21
A01/11
SB League
BC Prievidza
#23
L
44-49
44
49
-5
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
SAM Massagno
#3
W
49-40
49
40
+9
H07/11
SB League
Absheron Lions
#45
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
85.4Avg total
46.1Scored
39.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.539.383.8+5.167%-
Last 30 at home (16)43.541.284.8+2.256%-
Last 30 away (14)45.637.182.7+8.479%-
Last 10 (10)46.139.385.4+6.870%-
Last 5 (5)48.643.692.2+5.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)44.745.289.8-0.550%-
vs Similar (1)44.049.093.0-5.00%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)44.737.081.8+7.777%-
This opponent (Bakken Bears) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Bakken Bearstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bakken Bears: 98.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.6 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.826.8
64.1%
53.4%53.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.010.5
31.8%
32.5%31.5
🏀 Free throws20.913.8
66.0%
72.8%13.8
They take 74.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Geneva Lionstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Geneva Lions: 90.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.8 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.9 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.621.2
52.2%
53.4%42.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.49.2
39.3%
32.5%27.6
🏀 Free throws25.820.8
80.6%
72.8%20.8
They take 64.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Bakken Bears
LLWWWWWWWW
Geneva Lions
WWWWWWLWLW
#22
League position
#17
+19.5
Net rating
+28.0
101.5
Offensive rating
105.2
82.0
Defensive rating
77.2
56.9%
Effective FG%
54.7%
47.5%
Opp. effective FG%
46.2%
14.9%
Turnover %
12.9%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.40
31.8%
3-point %
39.3%
60.1%
Assist %
55.6%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence101.5 · 105.2Defence82.0 · 77.2Shooting56.9% · 54.7%3-point %31.8% · 39.3%Ball care14.9% · 12.9%Free throws0.28 · 0.40Form (last 10/10)80% · 80%
■ Bakken Bears   ■ Geneva Lions
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Bakken Bears wins
0
Geneva Lions wins
DateGameScore
14/10/26Geneva Lions v Bakken Bears73-78
Bakken Bearslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26ABenfica79-94
08/11/26ATeam FOG Naestved77-80
03/11/26ADenizli Basket80-76
30/10/26AHolbaek-Stenhus105-75
27/10/26ABC Prievidza83-78
24/10/26HBMS Herlev105-67
21/10/26HAbsheron Lions91-88 OT
18/10/26AVaerlose123-82
14/10/26AGeneva Lions78-73
10/10/26HRanders103-86
Geneva Lionslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HAbsheron Lions85-77
07/11/26HSAM Massagno103-76
04/11/26HBC Prievidza97-96
01/11/26ARegio Basel117-55
28/10/26HBenfica93-90
24/10/26HLugano Tigers92-74
21/10/26HDenizli Basket76-80
17/10/26ANeuchatel91-41
14/10/26HBakken Bears73-78
10/10/26ALausanne Basket94-65

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Bakken Bears
FIBA Europe Cup 2026
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL67%
HomeLW50%
AwayWWWL75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %67%50%75%
Points / game82.086.080.0
Allowed / game83.389.580.2
Point differential-1.3-3.5-0.2
Avg total165.3175.5160.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (4)100% (1)100% (3)
Overtime %17%50%0%
Geneva Lions
FIBA Europe Cup 2026
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW67%
HomeLLWWW60%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games651
Win %67%60%100%
Points / game88.284.8105.0
Allowed / game84.084.283.0
Point differential+4.2+0.6+22.0
Avg total172.2169.0188.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%0%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (4)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Trier660100%100.069.7+30.3
2 Esenler Erokspor660100%96.371.0+25.3
3 Basquet Girona65183%91.375.0+16.3
4 Nancy65183%87.272.5+14.7
5 Korfez Basket65183%87.373.7+13.7
6 Benfica65183%94.383.8+10.5
7 Mykonos65183%84.076.3+7.7
8 Dziki Warszawa65183%87.580.3+7.2
9 Chalon/Saone64267%84.872.7+12.2
10 Kolossos Rhodes64267%81.870.2+11.7
11 Iraklis64267%87.276.0+11.2
12 VEF Riga64267%95.084.7+10.3
13 Wurzburg64267%84.575.5+9.0
14 Promitheas64267%90.081.8+8.2
15 CSM Oradea64267%86.380.3+6.0
16 Szczecin64267%86.881.7+5.2
17 Geneva Lions64267%88.284.0+4.2
18 Keravnos64267%80.876.7+4.2
19 Zielona Gora64267%84.583.2+1.3
20 Split64267%81.580.3+1.2
21 Oostende64267%78.377.8+0.5
22 Bakken Bears64267%82.083.3-1.3
23 BC Prievidza84450%90.183.2+6.9
24 Lok. Plovdiv63350%83.383.5-0.2
25 AEK Larnaca63350%79.580.0-0.5
26 Valmiera Glass Via63350%81.083.3-2.3
27 BC Kalev/Cramo63350%80.083.7-3.7
28 Sporting CP63350%76.780.3-3.7
29 Trepca63350%77.581.2-3.7
30 Dinamo Bucharest83538%87.881.6+6.1
31 Denizli Basket62433%81.583.5-2.0
32 Vienna Basket62433%80.585.2-4.7
33 Levice62433%72.778.2-5.5
34 SCM Craiova62433%88.096.3-8.3
35 Nitra Blue Wings62433%78.888.2-9.3
36 Szolnoki Olaj62433%77.588.3-10.8
37 Tartu Ulikool62433%88.099.7-11.7
38 Neftchi IK82625%75.682.6-7.0
39 Parnu82625%71.479.0-7.6
40 Bashkimi51420%73.683.2-9.6
41 Rilski Sportist51420%75.888.8-13.0
42 Manchester Basketball51420%75.890.0-14.2
43 Gence51420%71.288.2-17.0
44 Opava61517%83.286.8-3.7
45 Absheron Lions61517%83.795.3-11.7
46 Fribourg Olympic61517%73.087.3-14.3
47 MZT Skopje6060%72.087.2-15.2
48 Samobor2020%74.0100.5-26.5
49 Peja2020%70.5100.5-30.0
50 Batumi6060%66.899.2-32.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 50 teams: scroll the table.
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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