Balikesir faces Mersin SK on 8 November 2026 in the TBL, and the model points to Mersin SK as the clear favourite, rating them 87% to win largely because of their flawless 8-0 season record, 90.6 points per game and 74.6 allowed, the best in the league and the only undefeated team. Balikesir, meanwhile, has struggled, standing 16th with a 2-7 record, 73.2 points scored and 78.3 allowed, and a 1-3 home record that shows they have only won once in four home outings, losing 73-77 to Harem Spor, 79-89 to CO Basket and 52-68 to Final Spor in their last five games. Mersin SK has dominated on the road, going 4-0 away, scoring 87.8 and allowing 74.5, and they won all five of their recent games, including 100-65 over Ankara Kolejliler, 85-73 over Kahramanmaras and 95-82 over Darussafaka. Their head-to-head history is even, 1-1, with the last meeting on 12 February 2022 ending 66-59 for Mersin SK. Pythia projects a 74-87 score, 161.6 total points, a 5.5-point home line with a 25% chance of the home team covering, and a 61% probability of the over on the 157.0 line, with a 3% chance of overtime. The game will test Balikesir's resilience against a dominant Mersin SK squad.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Balikesir winWon
12.9%fair 7.74
Best odds5.00
Implied20.5%
Edge-7.6pp
Mersin SK winLost
87.1%fair 1.15
Best odds1.25
Implied79.5%
Edge+7.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 14:23 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Balikesir) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152.5Actual: Over 152.5
Over 152.5
70.9%
Under 152.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 157.5 · main lineActual: Over 157.5
Over 157.5
59.5%
@ 1.85+9.7pp
Under 157.5
40.5%
@ 1.85-9.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Over/Under 162.5Actual: Over 162.5
Over 162.5
47.4%
Under 162.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
📊 3. Team Totals
Balikesir total 70.5Actual: Balikesir over 70.5
Over 70.5
64.3%
@ 1.42+2.9pp
Under 70.5
35.7%
@ 2.26-2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.42
Under
1xBet
2.26
Balikesir total 74.5 · main lineActual: Balikesir over 74.5
Over 74.5
48.7%
@ 1.85-1.3pp
Under 74.5
51.3%
@ 1.85+1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.65
Balikesir total 78.5Actual: Balikesir over 78.5
Over 78.5
33.6%
@ 2.56-8.2pp
Under 78.5
66.4%
@ 1.80+8.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.56
Bet365
1.86
Under
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.34
Mersin SK total 76.5Actual: Mersin SK under 76.5
Over 76.5
86.0%
@ 1.37+22.2pp
Under 76.5
14.0%
@ 2.42-22.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.37
Under
1xBet
2.42
Mersin SK total 80.5 · main lineActual: Mersin SK under 80.5
Over 80.5
75.2%
@ 1.83+24.8pp
Under 80.5
24.8%
@ 2.18-24.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.45
Under
1xBet
2.18
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.83
Mersin SK total 84.5Actual: Mersin SK under 84.5
Over 84.5
61.0%
@ 1.86+14.6pp
Under 84.5
39.0%
@ 1.61-14.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.86
Under
1xBet
1.61
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Balikesir +7Actual: Balikesir +7
BALI +7
28.9%
@ 1.88-18.8pp
MES -7
71.1%
@ 1.83+18.8pp
Best 5 market prices
BALI
Pinnacle
1.88
Bet365
1.83
MES
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.72
Spread Balikesir +10 · main lineActual: Balikesir +10
BALI +10
39.4%
@ 1.84-10.6pp
MES -10
60.6%
@ 1.87+10.6pp
Best 5 market prices
BALI
SBO
1.84
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Be
1.78
1xBet
1.78
MES
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
SBO
1.84
Pinnacle
1.83
Spread Balikesir +13Actual: Balikesir +13
BALI +13
50.5%
MES -13
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
BALI
No market prices yet.
MES
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
BalikesirMersin SK
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BalikesirLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
OGM Ormanspor
#6
L
16-31
16
31
-15
H18/04
TBL
Fenerbahce 2
#10
L
14-17
14
17
-3
H13/09
TBL
Darussafaka
#12
L
11-22
11
22
-11
A20/09
TBL
Kahramanmaras
#3
L
13-23
13
23
-10
H27/09
TBL
Ankara Kolejliler
#15
L
15-29
15
29
-14
A03/10
TBL
Goztepe
#4
W
22-16
22
16
+6
A07/10
TBL
Kecioren Baglum
#17
W
29-20
29
20
+9
H11/10
TBL
Final Spor
#6
L
16-20
16
20
-4
A18/10
TBL
CO Basket
#11
W
15-7
15
7
+8
H25/10
TBL
Harem Spor
#2
W
22-14
22
14
+8
A31/10
TBL
37.2Avg total
17.3Scored
19.9Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 39.5
Last 30 (28)
19.1
21.0
40.1
-2.0
36%
57%
Last 30 at home (14)
20.6
19.9
40.5
+0.6
50%
71%
Last 30 away (14)
17.6
22.1
39.7
-4.6
21%
43%
Last 10 (10)
17.3
19.9
37.2
-2.6
40%
30%
Last 5 (5)
20.8
15.4
36.2
+5.4
80%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)
19.5
21.5
40.9
-2.0
40%
53%
vs Similar (11)
19.6
21.6
41.3
-2.0
27%
73%
vs Weaker (2)
13.0
14.5
27.5
-1.5
50%
0%
This opponent (Mersin SK) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mersin SKLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Anadolu Efes
#4
L
25-29
25
29
-4
H02/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Trabzonspor
#6
L
20-25
20
25
-5
A10/05
Basketbol Süper Ligi
MKE Ankaragucu
#13
W
38-18
38
18
+20
A19/09
TBL
Konya BBSK
#16
L
15-26
15
26
-11
H26/09
TBL
iLab Basketbol
#8
L
21-23
21
23
-2
A04/10
TBL
Gaziantep
#5
W
27-13
27
13
+14
H08/10
TBL
Fenerbahce 2
#10
W
20-19
20
19
+1
A11/10
TBL
Darussafaka
#12
W
24-21
24
21
+3
H18/10
TBL
Kahramanmaras
#3
W
28-18
28
18
+10
A24/10
TBL
Ankara Kolejliler
#15
L
17-22
17
22
-5
H31/10
TBL
44.9Avg total
23.5Scored
21.4Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 39.5
Last 30 (30)
22.4
22.2
44.5
+0.2
47%
73%
Last 30 at home (15)
23.2
21.8
45.0
+1.4
53%
80%
Last 30 away (15)
21.5
22.5
44.1
-1.0
40%
67%
Last 10 (10)
23.5
21.4
44.9
+2.1
50%
80%
Last 5 (5)
23.2
18.6
41.8
+4.6
80%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)
18.9
24.0
42.9
-5.1
17%
58%
vs Similar (10)
25.7
20.6
46.3
+5.1
80%
90%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)
23.4
21.4
44.8
+2.0
50%
75%
This opponent (Balikesir) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st quarter bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st quarter winnerActual: Balikesir win
BALI win
no forecast
@ 2.50
MES win
no forecast
@ 1.50
Q1 Spread Balikesir +2.5 · main lineActual: Balikesir +2.5
BALI +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
MES -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
Q1 Over/Under 39.5 · main lineActual: Over 39.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Balikesir 1st quarter total 18.5 · main lineActual: Balikesir over 18.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
Mersin SK 1st quarter total 20.5 · main lineActual: Mersin SK under 20.5
This opponent (Balikesir) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 2nd half markets priced for this game yet.
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Mersin SK -2
85.1%
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
-
-
-
-
+26.5pp
Lost
Mersin SK over 81
74.4%
1.78
1xBet
1.78
-
-
-
-
+26.0pp
Lost
Mersin SK -2.5
82.9%
1.69
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
-
+25.6pp
Lost
Mersin SK over 80
77.6%
1.66
1xBet
1.66
-
-
-
-
+25.6pp
Lost
Mersin SK -1.5
85.5%
1.47
1xBet
1.47
-
-
-
-
+25.4pp
Lost
Mersin SK over 80.5
75.2%
1.69
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.45
-
-
+24.8pp
Lost
Mersin SK -3
82.5%
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
-
-
-
-
+23.0pp
Lost
Mersin SK -3.5
80.7%
1.48
Pinnacle
1.54
1xBet
1.41
-
-
-
+22.8pp
Lost
Mersin SK over 76.5
86.0%
1.37
1xBet
1.37
-
-
-
-
+22.2pp
Lost
Mersin SK -4
80.2%
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
-
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Lost
Mersin SK over 81.5
72.0%
1.75
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.53
-
+21.5pp
Lost
Mersin SK over 79.5
78.3%
1.58
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.38
-
-
-
+21.1pp
Lost
Mersin SK over 82
70.9%
1.72
1xBet
1.72
-
-
-
-
+20.9pp
Lost
Mersin SK -4.5
78.0%
1.63
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.56
1xBet
1.31
-
+20.8pp
Lost
Mersin SK -7
71.1%
1.77
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.72
-
-
-
+18.8pp
Lost
Mersin SK -6
74.3%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
-
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Lost
Mersin SK -5
77.3%
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
-
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Lost
Mersin SK -6.5
72.0%
1.72
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.66
1xBet
1.45
-
+18.0pp
Lost
Mersin SK -5.5
75.1%
1.69
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.55
1xBet
1.38
+17.5pp
Lost
Mersin SK over 78.5
81.1%
1.32
1xBet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+14.4pp
Lost
Mersin SK over 77.5
83.7%
1.27
1xBet
1.27
-
-
-
-
+13.8pp
Lost
Balikesir under 80.5
73.2%
1.38
1xBet
1.38
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Lost
Mersin SK (regulation)
85.4%
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Marathon Bet
1.15
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Lost
Mersin SK win
87.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.16
BetVictor
1.15
1xBet
1.14
WilliamHill
1.14
+7.6pp
Lost
Overtime: no
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
-
Balikesir over 68.5
71.4%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Free daily update
Get it on Telegram
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 61.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Balikesirtheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Balikesir: 79.7 points a game allowed
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.1 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
36.8
20.0
54.3%
53.0%
40.0
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
24.8
8.0
32.3%
33.0%
24.0
🏀Free throws
21.8
15.7
72.0%
71.2%
15.7
Their opponents take 61.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of those shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Mersin SKtheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Mersin SK: 77.2 points a game allowed
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.6 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.1 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
33.1
17.3
52.3%
53.0%
34.6
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
29.5
9.7
32.9%
33.0%
29.1
🏀Free throws
19.5
13.5
69.2%
71.2%
13.5
Their opponents take 62.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of those shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 65.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 63.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Balikesirtheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Balikesir: 81.5 points a game allowed
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.3 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.3 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.1 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.6
19.7
52.3%
53.0%
39.3
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.4
8.6
32.5%
33.0%
25.8
🏀Free throws
22.6
16.3
72.3%
71.2%
16.3
Their opponents take 64.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of those shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Mersin SKtheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Mersin SK: 86.1 points a game allowed
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.0 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.1 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.1 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
34.6
18.5
53.4%
53.0%
37.0
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
29.7
11.3
38.1%
33.0%
34.0
🏀Free throws
19.8
15.1
76.0%
71.2%
15.1
Their opponents take 64.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of those shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 08 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Balikesir
LLLWLWLLLL
Mersin SK
WWWWWWWWLL
#14
League position
#1
-6.9
Net rating
+13.7
85.8
Offensive rating
107.1
92.7
Defensive rating
93.4
46.3%
Effective FG%
60.6%
51.9%
Opp. effective FG%
50.9%
14.7%
Turnover %
15.7%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.31
33.5%
3-point %
40.5%
61.2%
Assist %
77.9%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
80%
Profile
■ Balikesir■ Mersin SK
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which
predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our
Cookie Policy.
Manage Cookies
Strictly Necessary
Always Active
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the
pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the
operation of our website.
Session and security cookies, your logged-in state, your
subscription status, and the record of this cookie choice itself. These cannot be switched
off because the site cannot be delivered without them.
Functionality Cookies
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site
behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to
build a profile of you.
Your preferred tours and filters, which notices you have dismissed, your
theme choice, and display preferences you have chosen. Kept for up to two years, and you
can clear them from your browser at any time.
These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
Only" inside this panel switches them off as well.
Performance Cookies
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to
produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.
PythiaBasketballBETA
TBLRound 10· Kurtdereli Spor Salonu
Balikesir
Gaziantep
Final Spor
Buyukcekmece
iLab Basketbol
OGM Ormanspor
CO Basket
Fenerbahce 2
MKE Ankaragucu
Darussafaka
Ankara Kolejliler