Barcelona host Crvena zvezda in the EuroLeague on 20 November 2026, with the model favouring the Catalans who are 8-3 overall, 4th in the league, averaging 89.6 points and conceding 87.4, and a 60% chance to win; the Serbian side are 7-4, 6th, scoring 83.3 and allowing 77.7, with a 40% chance to win. Barcelona have gone 3-2 at home, 91.6 points for and 91.2 against, and are undefeated in their last five games, highlighted by a 108-83 win over Obradoiro CAB, a 76-74 victory over Panathinaikos, and a 99-91 triumph over Breogan; Crvena zvezda are 3-2 on the road, 77.8 points for and 77.4 against, and 4-1 in their last five, including a 91-80 win over Slovan Bratislava and a 62-57 win over Olympiacos, but they lost 84-105 to Real Madrid. In their 10 previous meetings Barcelona have won nine, most recently 80-72 on 21 April 2026. The projected score is 87-84, with a total of 171.6 points; the home line is -1.5 and Barcelona have a 57% chance to cover, while the over on 167.5 has a 59% probability, and there is a 5% chance of overtime. The game will finish with Barcelona's 87 points.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Barcelona win
60.2%fair 1.66
Best odds1.83
Implied52.7%
Edge+7.5pp
Crvena zvezda win
39.8%fair 2.51
Best odds2.04
Implied47.3%
Edge-7.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 07:36 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Barcelona) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 172 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%). The market's main line is 167.5.
Over/Under 162.5
Over 162.5
70.4%
@ 1.46+8.2pp
Under 162.5
29.6%
@ 2.40-8.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.46
Under
1xBet
2.40
Over/Under 167.5 · main line
Over 167.5
59.1%
@ 1.93+9.1pp
Under 167.5
40.9%
@ 1.93-9.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.85
Over/Under 172.5
Over 172.5
46.9%
@ 2.40+9.1pp
Under 172.5
53.1%
@ 1.46-9.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.46
📊 3. Team Totals
Barcelona total 80.5
Over 80.5
74.2%
Under 80.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona total 84.5 · main line
Over 84.5
60.4%
@ 1.81+10.4pp
Under 84.5
39.6%
@ 1.81-10.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
Under
1xBet
1.81
Barcelona total 88.5
Over 88.5
45.0%
Under 88.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crvena zvezda total 78.5
Over 78.5
71.6%
Under 78.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crvena zvezda total 82.5 · main line
Over 82.5
56.8%
@ 1.75+5.3pp
Under 82.5
43.2%
@ 1.86-5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.75
Under
1xBet
1.86
Crvena zvezda total 86.5
Over 86.5
41.2%
Under 86.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Barcelona's side (positive = Barcelona win). Pythia's expected margin is +2.8; Barcelona win by 1+ in 52% of simulations.
Spread Barcelona -4.5
BAR -4.5
45.5%
@ 2.21+4.4pp
CZV +4.5
54.5%
@ 1.54-4.4pp
Best 5 market prices
BAR
1xBet
2.21
CZV
1xBet
1.54
Spread Barcelona -1.5 · main line
BAR -1.5
57.3%
@ 1.94+7.6pp
CZV +1.5
42.7%
@ 1.92-7.6pp
Best 5 market prices
BAR
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.85
CZV
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.83
Spread Barcelona +1.5
BAR +1.5
62.9%
@ 1.64+7.1pp
CZV -1.5
37.1%
@ 2.07-7.1pp
Best 5 market prices
BAR
1xBet
1.64
CZV
1xBet
2.07
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
BarcelonaCrvena zvezda
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BarcelonaLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Joventut Badalona
#12
W
26-23
26
23
+3
A18/10
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
23-21
23
21
+2
A22/10
Euroleague
Basket Zaragoza
#7
W
24-21
24
21
+3
H24/10
ACB
Bayern
#18
W
21-17
21
17
+4
A27/10
Euroleague
Valencia
#3
W
30-25
30
25
+5
H30/10
Euroleague
Unicaja
#8
L
25-29
25
29
-4
A01/11
ACB
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#10
L
19-21
19
21
-2
A05/11
Euroleague
Breogan
#6
W
23-20
23
20
+3
H08/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
D
17-17
17
17
+0
A13/11
Euroleague
Obradoiro CAB
#13
W
25-18
25
18
+7
H15/11
ACB
44.5Avg total
23.3Scored
21.2Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 42.5
Last 30 (30)
21.0
21.4
42.4
-0.4
50%
47%
Last 30 at home (16)
21.6
22.2
43.8
-0.6
50%
56%
Last 30 away (14)
20.4
20.5
40.9
-0.1
50%
36%
Last 10 (10)
23.3
21.2
44.5
+2.1
70%
70%
Last 5 (5)
21.8
21.0
42.8
+0.8
40%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)
19.3
23.8
43.1
-4.4
33%
44%
vs Similar ◀ (10)
21.1
21.5
42.6
-0.4
50%
50%
vs Weaker (11)
22.4
19.4
41.7
+3.0
64%
45%
This opponent (Crvena zvezda) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Crvena zvezdaLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Paris
#14
W
28-18
28
18
+10
H16/10
Euroleague
KK Krka Novo mesto
#19
W
27-18
27
18
+9
A18/10
ABA League
Partizan
#11
L
21-31
21
31
-10
A22/10
Euroleague
Igokea
#11
L
20-36
20
36
-16
A24/10
ABA League
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
W
34-15
34
15
+19
H27/10
Euroleague
Bayern
#18
W
19-15
19
15
+4
H29/10
Euroleague
Siroki Brijeg
#7
W
28-18
28
18
+10
H01/11
ABA League
Olympiacos
#2
W
19-11
19
11
+8
A06/11
Euroleague
Slovan Bratislava
#9
W
29-28
29
28
+1
H09/11
ABA League
Real Madrid
#5
L
20-38
20
38
-18
A12/11
Euroleague
47.3Avg total
24.5Scored
22.8Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 42.5
Last 30 (30)
23.1
23.0
46.1
+0.1
50%
70%
Last 30 at home (15)
24.6
21.8
46.4
+2.8
67%
73%
Last 30 away (15)
21.6
24.3
45.9
-2.7
33%
67%
Last 10 (10)
24.5
22.8
47.3
+1.7
70%
80%
Last 5 (5)
23.0
22.0
45.0
+1.0
80%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)
25.0
27.0
52.0
-2.0
0%
100%
vs Similar ◀ (14)
22.4
24.9
47.3
-2.4
43%
79%
vs Weaker (15)
23.6
21.1
44.7
+2.5
60%
60%
This opponent (Barcelona) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st quarter bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
Q1 Spread Barcelona 0 · main line
BAR 0
55.4%
@ 1.72+1.6pp
CZV 0
44.6%
@ 2.00-1.6pp
Q1 Over/Under 42.5 · main line
Over
53.1%
@ 1.81+3.7pp
Under
46.9%
@ 1.77-3.7pp
Barcelona 1st quarter total 21.5 · main line
Over
53.8%
@ 1.80+4.1pp
Under
46.2%
@ 1.78-4.1pp
Crvena zvezda 1st quarter total 20.5 · main line
Over
54.5%
@ 1.72+2.5pp
Under
45.5%
@ 1.86-2.5pp
Q1 Over/Under 40.5
Over
64.3%
@ 1.52+5.5pp
Under
35.7%
@ 2.17-5.5pp
Q1 Spread Barcelona -1.5
BAR -1.5
46.9%
@ 1.98+1.7pp
CZV +1.5
53.1%
@ 1.63-1.7pp
1st quarter 3-way (draw possible)
BAR
52.3%
@ 1.81+2.9pp
Draw
5.5%
@ 12.10-1.9pp
CZV
42.2%
@ 2.07-1.0pp
1st quarter double chance
BAR or draw
57.8%
@ 1.60
BAR or CZV
94.5%
Draw or CZV
47.7%
@ 1.81
BarcelonaLast 10 – 2nd quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Joventut Badalona
#12
L
19-26
19
26
-7
A18/10
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
21-19
21
19
+2
A22/10
Euroleague
Basket Zaragoza
#7
W
24-19
24
19
+5
H24/10
ACB
Bayern
#18
L
20-25
20
25
-5
A27/10
Euroleague
Valencia
#3
L
14-17
14
17
-3
H30/10
Euroleague
Unicaja
#8
L
20-25
20
25
-5
A01/11
ACB
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#10
W
27-25
27
25
+2
A05/11
Euroleague
Breogan
#6
L
16-20
16
20
-4
H08/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
15-16
15
16
-1
A13/11
Euroleague
Obradoiro CAB
#13
W
26-22
26
22
+4
H15/11
ACB
41.6Avg total
20.2Scored
21.4Allowed
2nd quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over main line
Last 30 (30)
21.7
21.2
43.0
+0.5
53%
-
Last 30 at home (16)
20.8
19.8
40.6
+0.9
56%
-
Last 30 away (14)
22.9
22.9
45.7
+0.0
50%
-
Last 10 (10)
20.2
21.4
41.6
-1.2
40%
-
Last 5 (5)
20.8
21.6
42.4
-0.8
40%
-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)
19.0
20.9
39.9
-1.9
33%
-
vs Similar ◀ (10)
22.8
20.9
43.7
+1.9
70%
-
vs Weaker (11)
23.0
21.8
44.8
+1.2
55%
-
This opponent (Crvena zvezda) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Crvena zvezdaLast 10 – 2nd quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Paris
#14
D
18-18
18
18
+0
H16/10
Euroleague
KK Krka Novo mesto
#19
L
17-24
17
24
-7
A18/10
ABA League
Partizan
#11
L
17-21
17
21
-4
A22/10
Euroleague
Igokea
#11
L
13-14
13
14
-1
A24/10
ABA League
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
W
21-15
21
15
+6
H27/10
Euroleague
Bayern
#18
W
29-16
29
16
+13
H29/10
Euroleague
Siroki Brijeg
#7
W
27-26
27
26
+1
H01/11
ABA League
Olympiacos
#2
W
21-11
21
11
+10
A06/11
Euroleague
Slovan Bratislava
#9
W
22-18
22
18
+4
H09/11
ABA League
Real Madrid
#5
W
21-18
21
18
+3
A12/11
Euroleague
38.7Avg total
20.6Scored
18.1Allowed
2nd quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over main line
Last 30 (30)
21.1
20.1
41.2
+1.0
50%
-
Last 30 at home (15)
22.3
19.9
42.2
+2.5
67%
-
Last 30 away (15)
19.9
20.4
40.3
-0.5
33%
-
Last 10 (10)
20.6
18.1
38.7
+2.5
60%
-
Last 5 (5)
24.0
17.8
41.8
+6.2
100%
-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)
19.0
29.0
48.0
-10.0
0%
-
vs Similar ◀ (14)
21.1
21.1
42.2
-0.1
36%
-
vs Weaker (15)
21.3
18.6
39.9
+2.7
67%
-
This opponent (Barcelona) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd quarter bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
This opponent (Crvena zvezda) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Crvena zvezdaLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Paris
#14
L
44-45
44
45
-1
H16/10
Euroleague
KK Krka Novo mesto
#19
W
53-36
53
36
+17
A18/10
ABA League
Partizan
#11
W
37-23
37
23
+14
A22/10
Euroleague
Igokea
#11
W
48-30
48
30
+18
A24/10
ABA League
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
L
45-48
45
48
-3
H27/10
Euroleague
Bayern
#18
W
55-42
55
42
+13
H29/10
Euroleague
Siroki Brijeg
#7
W
45-38
45
38
+7
H01/11
ABA League
Olympiacos
#2
L
22-35
22
35
-13
A06/11
Euroleague
Slovan Bratislava
#9
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H09/11
ABA League
Real Madrid
#5
L
43-49
43
49
-6
A12/11
Euroleague
81.2Avg total
43.2Scored
38.0Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over main line
Last 30 (30)
42.6
39.5
82.1
+3.1
63%
-
Last 30 at home (15)
43.4
40.6
84.0
+2.8
60%
-
Last 30 away (15)
41.8
38.5
80.3
+3.3
67%
-
Last 10 (10)
43.2
38.0
81.2
+5.2
60%
-
Last 5 (5)
41.0
39.6
80.6
+1.4
60%
-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)
38.0
47.0
85.0
-9.0
0%
-
vs Similar ◀ (14)
40.3
39.2
79.5
+1.1
57%
-
vs Weaker (15)
45.1
39.3
84.4
+5.7
73%
-
This opponent (Barcelona) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 2nd half markets priced for this game yet.
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 65.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 63.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Barcelonatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Barcelona: 90.7 points a game allowed
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.4 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.7 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
36.7
20.2
55.0%
55.2%
40.4
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
28.8
11.9
41.3%
35.7%
35.7
🏀Free throws
19.1
14.6
76.4%
77.1%
14.6
Their opponents take 65.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Crvena zvezdatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Crvena zvezda: 78.4 points a game allowed
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
38.7
19.9
51.4%
55.2%
39.8
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
27.0
8.2
30.4%
35.7%
24.6
🏀Free throws
19.1
14.0
73.3%
77.1%
14.0
Their opponents take 65.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 65.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 58.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Barcelonatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Barcelona: 90.3 points a game allowed
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.7 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
38.3
21.3
55.7%
55.2%
42.7
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
27.7
10.5
37.9%
35.7%
31.5
🏀Free throws
20.5
16.2
79.0%
77.1%
16.2
Their opponents take 66.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Crvena zvezdatheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Crvena zvezda: 73.9 points a game allowed
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.3 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.8 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
31.3
17.7
56.4%
55.2%
35.3
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.3
8.9
34.0%
35.7%
26.8
🏀Free throws
15.8
11.7
74.3%
77.1%
11.7
Their opponents take 57.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of those shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Barcelona
WWWWWWWWWL
Crvena zvezda
LWWWWWWLWW
#4
League position
#6
+0.7
Net rating
+14.0
105.6
Offensive rating
106.5
104.9
Defensive rating
92.5
58.8%
Effective FG%
59.7%
58.1%
Opp. effective FG%
49.0%
15.3%
Turnover %
13.2%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.30
39.5%
3-point %
37.9%
51.5%
Assist %
71.3%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
80%
Profile
■ Barcelona■ Crvena zvezda
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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